中国低碳试点政策对外商直接投资的影响研究
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摘要
在分析低碳试点政策的实施背景及其影响外商直接投资理论机制的基础上,选取2004—2015年中国地级市的面板数据,以低碳试点政策作为准自然实验,使用双重差分法检验了低碳试点政策对中国16个省份197个地级市外商直接投资的影响。研究发现:①低碳试点政策的实施并不是外商直接投资的绊脚石,中国在实施低碳试点政策的过程中会显著促进外商直接投资;②由于城市等级存在差异,低碳试点政策对外商直接投资的影响也有所不同,随着城市等级的上升,低碳试点政策的实施对外商直接投资的促进作用也会显著上升,但当城市等级上升到省会城市时,这种促进作用会有所下降;③低碳试点政策对外商直接投资的影响存在地区差异,其会显著促进中部和东部地区的外商直接投资,但会抑制西部地区的外商直接投资。为此,在中国经济由高速发展向高质量发展转变的重要阶段,地方政府应进一步扩大低碳试点政策的实施范围,积极利用现有的政策工具,如申报低碳试点城市,进而找到环境保护与引入外商直接投资之间的平衡点。同时,中国在制定环境政策时应切忌走入盲目实施的误区,针对不同城市的发展情况和地理位置情况,应分阶段实施低碳试点政策,同时要避免对所有地区设立同样的标准,针对不同的地区应给予不同的优惠,设立不同的碳强度下降目标,最终吸引外商直接投资。
Based on the analysis of the implementation background of the low-carbon pilot policy and its theoretical mechanism affecting foreign direct investment,this paper selects the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2015,and uses the low-carbon pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment. The difference-in-difference method is used to test the impact of environmental regulation on foreign direct investment in 197 prefecture-level cities of China. The results show: ①The implementation of low-carbon pilot policy will significantly promote the increase of foreign direct investment. ②Due to differences in city levels,the impact of lowcarbon pilot policy on foreign direct investment is also different. As the city level rises,the implementation of low-carbon pilot policy will also significantly increase the foreign direct investment,but when the city level belongs to a provincial city,this promotion will decline. ③ There are regional differences in the impact of the low carbon pilot policy on foreign direct investment,which will significantly promote foreign direct investment in the central and eastern regions,but will inhibit foreign direct investment in the western region. Therefore,in the important stage of China's economic transition from high-speed development to high-quality development,local governments should further expand the scope of the low carbon pilot policy,use existing environmental regulation tools,such as declaring low-carbon pilot cities,and then find the balance between environmental protection and the introduction of foreign direct investment. At the same time,China should avoid the misunderstanding of blind implementation when formulating environmental policies. In view of the development and geographical location of different cities,we should implement a low-carbon pilot policy in phases,while avoiding setting the same standards for all regions. The regions should be given different concessions,set different carbon intensity reduction targets,and ultimately attract foreign direct investment.
Based on the analysis of the implementation background of the low-carbon pilot policy and its theoretical mechanism affecting foreign direct investment,this paper selects the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2015,and uses the low-carbon pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment. The difference-in-difference method is used to test the impact of environmental regulation on foreign direct investment in 197 prefecture-level cities of China. The results show: ①The implementation of low-carbon pilot policy will significantly promote the increase of foreign direct investment. ②Due to differences in city levels,the impact of lowcarbon pilot policy on foreign direct investment is also different. As the city level rises,the implementation of low-carbon pilot policy will also significantly increase the foreign direct investment,but when the city level belongs to a provincial city,this promotion will decline. ③ There are regional differences in the impact of the low carbon pilot policy on foreign direct investment,which will significantly promote foreign direct investment in the central and eastern regions,but will inhibit foreign direct investment in the western region. Therefore,in the important stage of China's economic transition from high-speed development to high-quality development,local governments should further expand the scope of the low carbon pilot policy,use existing environmental regulation tools,such as declaring low-carbon pilot cities,and then find the balance between environmental protection and the introduction of foreign direct investment. At the same time,China should avoid the misunderstanding of blind implementation when formulating environmental policies. In view of the development and geographical location of different cities,we should implement a low-carbon pilot policy in phases,while avoiding setting the same standards for all regions. The regions should be given different concessions,set different carbon intensity reduction targets,and ultimately attract foreign direct investment.
引文
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[2]SHEN L,WU Y,LOU Y,et al. What drives the carbon emission in the Chinese cities? a case of pilot low carbon city of Beijing[J].Journal of cleaner production,2018,174:343-354.
[3]吴玉鸣.外商直接投资与环境规制关联机制的面板数据分析[J].经济地理,2007(1):11-14.
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[6]金春雨,王伟强.“污染避难所假说”在中国真的成立吗———基于空间VAR模型的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2016(8):108-118.
[7]LIN L,SUN W. Location choice of FDI firms and environmental regulation reforms in China[J]. Journal of regulatory economics,2016,50(2):207-232.
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[10]朱平芳,张征宇,姜国麟. FDI与环境规制:基于地方分权视角的实证研究[J].经济研究,2011,46(6):133-145.
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[12]LANOIE P,PATRY M,LAJEUNESSE R. Environmental regulation and productivity:testing the Porter Hypothesis[J]. Journal of productivity analysis,2008,30(2):121-128.
[13]李胜兰,初善冰,申晨.地方政府竞争、环境规制与区域生态效率[J].世界经济,2014,37(4):88-110.
[14]任力,黄崇杰.国内外环境规制对中国出口贸易的影响[J].世界经济,2015,38(5):59-80.
[15]HAUSMANN R,FERNANDEZ A E. Foreign direct investment:good cholesterol?[R]. 2000:417.
[16]蒋灵多,陆毅.最低工资标准能否抑制新僵尸企业的形成[J].中国工业经济,2017(11):118-136.
[17]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?———基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015(8):30-38.
[18]史贝贝,冯晨,张妍,等.环境规制红利的边际递增效应[J].中国工业经济,2017(12):40-58.
[19]BALLANTYNE A G,WIBECK V,NESET T S. Images of climate change:a pilot study of young people’s perceptions of ICT-based climate visualization[J]. Climatic change,2016,134(1-2):73-85.
[20]HUANG J, CHEN X, HUANG B, et al. Economic and environmental impacts of foreign direct investment in China:a spatial spillover analysis[J]. China economic review,2017,45:289-309.
[21]LIANG F H. Does foreign direct investment harm the host country’s environment? evidence from China[J]. Current topics in management,2014,17:105-121.
[22]LU Y,TAO Z,ZHU L. Identifying FDI spillovers[J]. Journal of international economics,2017,107:75-90.
[23]SHUAI C,CHEN X,SHEN L,et al. The turning points of carbon Kuznets curve:evidences from panel and time-series data of 164countries[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2017,162:1031-1047.
[24]WANG J M, SHI Y F, ZHANG J. Energy efficiency and influencing factors analysis on Beijing industrial sectors[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2017,167:653-664.
[25]刘健,王润,孙艳伟,等.中国低碳试点省份发展路径研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(3):56-62.
[26]宋祺佼,王宇飞,齐晔.中国低碳试点城市的碳排放现状[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(1):78-82.
[27]孙力军.金融发展、FDI与经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(1):3-14.
[28]王兵,吴延瑞,颜鹏飞.中国区域环境效率与环境全要素生产率增长[J].经济研究,2010,45(5):95-109.
[29]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?———基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):30-43.
[2]SHEN L,WU Y,LOU Y,et al. What drives the carbon emission in the Chinese cities? a case of pilot low carbon city of Beijing[J].Journal of cleaner production,2018,174:343-354.
[3]吴玉鸣.外商直接投资与环境规制关联机制的面板数据分析[J].经济地理,2007(1):11-14.
[4]DEAN J M,LOVELY M E, WANG H. Are foreign investors attracted to weak environmental regulations? evaluating the evidence from China[J]. Social science electronic publishing,2009,90(1):1-13.
[5]刘朝,韩先锋,宋文飞.环境规制强度与外商直接投资的互动机制[J].统计研究,2014,31(5):32-40.
[6]金春雨,王伟强.“污染避难所假说”在中国真的成立吗———基于空间VAR模型的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2016(8):108-118.
[7]LIN L,SUN W. Location choice of FDI firms and environmental regulation reforms in China[J]. Journal of regulatory economics,2016,50(2):207-232.
[8]HAO Y,DENG Y,LU Z N,et al. Is Environmental regulation effective in China? evidence from city-level panel data[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2018,188:966-976.
[9]曾贤刚.环境规制、外商直接投资与“污染避难所”假说———基于中国30个省份面板数据的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2010(11):65-71.
[10]朱平芳,张征宇,姜国麟. FDI与环境规制:基于地方分权视角的实证研究[J].经济研究,2011,46(6):133-145.
[11]WANG Y,SONG Q,HE J,et al. Developing low-carbon cities through pilots[J]. Climate policy,2015,15(sup1):S81-S103.
[12]LANOIE P,PATRY M,LAJEUNESSE R. Environmental regulation and productivity:testing the Porter Hypothesis[J]. Journal of productivity analysis,2008,30(2):121-128.
[13]李胜兰,初善冰,申晨.地方政府竞争、环境规制与区域生态效率[J].世界经济,2014,37(4):88-110.
[14]任力,黄崇杰.国内外环境规制对中国出口贸易的影响[J].世界经济,2015,38(5):59-80.
[15]HAUSMANN R,FERNANDEZ A E. Foreign direct investment:good cholesterol?[R]. 2000:417.
[16]蒋灵多,陆毅.最低工资标准能否抑制新僵尸企业的形成[J].中国工业经济,2017(11):118-136.
[17]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?———基于双重差分方法的验证[J].管理世界,2015(8):30-38.
[18]史贝贝,冯晨,张妍,等.环境规制红利的边际递增效应[J].中国工业经济,2017(12):40-58.
[19]BALLANTYNE A G,WIBECK V,NESET T S. Images of climate change:a pilot study of young people’s perceptions of ICT-based climate visualization[J]. Climatic change,2016,134(1-2):73-85.
[20]HUANG J, CHEN X, HUANG B, et al. Economic and environmental impacts of foreign direct investment in China:a spatial spillover analysis[J]. China economic review,2017,45:289-309.
[21]LIANG F H. Does foreign direct investment harm the host country’s environment? evidence from China[J]. Current topics in management,2014,17:105-121.
[22]LU Y,TAO Z,ZHU L. Identifying FDI spillovers[J]. Journal of international economics,2017,107:75-90.
[23]SHUAI C,CHEN X,SHEN L,et al. The turning points of carbon Kuznets curve:evidences from panel and time-series data of 164countries[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2017,162:1031-1047.
[24]WANG J M, SHI Y F, ZHANG J. Energy efficiency and influencing factors analysis on Beijing industrial sectors[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2017,167:653-664.
[25]刘健,王润,孙艳伟,等.中国低碳试点省份发展路径研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(3):56-62.
[26]宋祺佼,王宇飞,齐晔.中国低碳试点城市的碳排放现状[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(1):78-82.
[27]孙力军.金融发展、FDI与经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(1):3-14.
[28]王兵,吴延瑞,颜鹏飞.中国区域环境效率与环境全要素生产率增长[J].经济研究,2010,45(5):95-109.
[29]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?———基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):30-43.
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