全国城乡人口与建设用地协调发展研究
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摘要
研究1996年以来全国城乡人口与建设用地协调发展的阶段性与新趋势,支撑新一轮国土空间规划修编。利用计量分析、GIS分析等方法,对全国城乡人口与用地增长阶段、城乡人均用地水平、城乡人口与用地协调度进行了测算和分析。1996年以来全国城镇化发展经过了人口城镇化快于土地城镇化和土地城镇化快于人口城镇化阶段,目前出现人口城镇化快于土地城镇化的新趋势。全国城镇人地关系逐渐从不协调走向协调,协调发展地区的范围在扩大,人地失调的程度在降低,人地失调地区主要集中在华北、东北、西北和西南地区;全国乡村人地失调的程度在加重,范围在扩大。人口在城乡间往返式迁移造成乡村人地关系失调和土地利用粗放,加快外来人口市民化进程是根本出路。
The purpose of this paper is to study the stages and new trends of man-land relationship in China's urban and rural areas since 1996 to support the new round of national land use planning revision. Metering method and GIS analysis method are employed. The results show the growth rate, per capita land use level and coordination degree of urban-rural man-land in the whole country level and provincial level. It is concluded that the development of urbanization in China has experienced the periods in which population urbanization was faster than land urbanization, then land urbanization was faster than population urbanization since 1996,and now a new trend that population urbanization is faster than land urbanization is emerging. The relationship between population and land use in urbanized areas has gradually shifted from uncoordinated to coordinating. The scope of coordinated area is expanding, and the uncoordinated degree in urbanized area is declining. The urban and town with imbalanced man-land relationship are mainly concentrated in the areas of north China, northeast, northwest and the border of southwest. Simultaneously, the degree of uncoordinated degree of man-land relationship in the countryside is increasing and the scope is expanding. The reciprocal migration of the population between urban and rural areas has caused the uncoordinated relationship of man-land relationship in countryside and extensive land resource use, speeding up the citizenization process of migrants in city and towns is the fundamental way out.
The purpose of this paper is to study the stages and new trends of man-land relationship in China's urban and rural areas since 1996 to support the new round of national land use planning revision. Metering method and GIS analysis method are employed. The results show the growth rate, per capita land use level and coordination degree of urban-rural man-land in the whole country level and provincial level. It is concluded that the development of urbanization in China has experienced the periods in which population urbanization was faster than land urbanization, then land urbanization was faster than population urbanization since 1996,and now a new trend that population urbanization is faster than land urbanization is emerging. The relationship between population and land use in urbanized areas has gradually shifted from uncoordinated to coordinating. The scope of coordinated area is expanding, and the uncoordinated degree in urbanized area is declining. The urban and town with imbalanced man-land relationship are mainly concentrated in the areas of north China, northeast, northwest and the border of southwest. Simultaneously, the degree of uncoordinated degree of man-land relationship in the countryside is increasing and the scope is expanding. The reciprocal migration of the population between urban and rural areas has caused the uncoordinated relationship of man-land relationship in countryside and extensive land resource use, speeding up the citizenization process of migrants in city and towns is the fundamental way out.
引文
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[26] 张莉.面向公共政策的城乡划分与城镇人口统计[J].城市发展研究,2018(06):1-7.
[2] 张飞,孔伟.我国土地城镇化的时空特征及机理研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(05):144-148
[3] 高金龙,陈江龙,苏曦.中国城市扩张态势与驱动机理研究学派综述[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(05):743-754.
[4] 严思齐,吴群.土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性和互动关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(11):28-36
[5] 陆大道,宋林飞,任平.中国城镇化发展模式:如何走向科学发展之路[J].苏州大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(02):1-7.
[6] 陈春.健康城镇化发展研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2008(04):7-9.
[7] 陈凤桂,张虹鸥,吴旗韬,等.我国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展研究[J].人文地理,2010,25(05):53-58.
[8] 范进,赵定涛.土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调性测定及其影响因素[J].经济学家,2012(05):61-67.
[9] 尹宏玲,徐腾.我国城市人口城镇化与土地城镇化失调特征及差异研究[J].城市规划学刊,2013(02):10-15.
[10] 王兴芬.中国土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调发展的实证研究——基于协调发展模型[J].技术经济与管理研究,2017(01):102-106.
[11] 陶然,曹广忠.“空间城镇化”、“人口城镇化”的不匹配与政策组合应对[J].改革,2008(10):83-88.
[12] 刘守英.中国土地制度改革:上半程及下半程[J].国际经济评论,2017(05):29-56+4.
[13] 张善余.人口地理学概论[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,2013:25
[14] 周一星.城市地理学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1995:108-112.
[15] Lin GCS.Reprodecing spaces of Chinese urbanization:New city-based and land-centered urban transformation[J].Urban Studies,2007,44(9):1827-1855.
[16] 汪晖、陶然.中国土地制度改革难点、突破与政策组合[M].北京:商务印书馆.2015:2
[17] 张雅琼,杨子生.我国两次土地资源调查的对比分析[J].国土资源科技管理,2013,30(02):100-104.
[18] 丁志帆.改革开放以来中国经济周期波动特征与形成机制分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2014,29(03):41-46.
[19] 刘世锦.中国经济进入了高速增长到中速增长的转换期[J].中国经贸导刊,2012(06):9-10.
[20] 国发[2017]3号.全国国土规划纲要(2016-2030)[R/OL].(2017-01-04).http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-02/04/content_5165309.html.
[21] 刘琼,杜晓航,盛业旭.基于阶段对比的中国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(01):26-34.
[22] 国家卫生和计划委员会流动人口司.中国流动人口发展报告2017[M].北京:中国人口出版社,2017:3
[23] 光明日报.2016年全国户籍人口城镇化率达41.2%[OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/city/2017-02/10/c_12947476.htm,2017-02-10.
[24] 周一星.关于中国城镇化速度的思考[J].城市规划,2006(S1):32-35+40.
[25] 林坚.2000年以来人口城镇化水平变动省际差异分析——基于统计数据的校正和修补[J].城市规划,2010,34(03):48-56.
[26] 张莉.面向公共政策的城乡划分与城镇人口统计[J].城市发展研究,2018(06):1-7.
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