1960—2009年间河南省≥0℃和≥10℃活动积温时空变化
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摘要
[目的]活动积温是农业气候资源评价最重要、最普遍的指标之一。利用1960—2009年河南省17个气象站点的逐日均温数据,研究1960—2009年河南省≥0℃和≥10℃活动积温时空变化。[方法]运用5日滑动平均法计算≥0℃和≥10℃积温;基于GIS平台进行空间插值,点面结合地研究了两种活动积温的时空变化特征。[结果](1)总体变化格局上,1960—2009年河南省≥0℃和≥10℃积温都呈上升趋势,前者年均值5 226℃、增加0. 13%/年、振荡周期4年,后者年均4 658. 5℃、增加0. 22%/年、振荡周期3年;(2)代际变化上,≥0℃和≥10℃积温变化趋势相似,均以2000年为界,之前基本没有明显变化,而之后则发生较显著增加趋势,均呈自南而北的增大态势;(3)在空间格局上,虽然两种活动积温都展示着西低东高、北低南高的趋向,但≥10℃积温的趋势更加明显;(4)两种活动积温的代际数值均与纬度和海拔呈显著负相关。[结论]河南省活动积温的区域分异特征与其他地区相比存在明显差异,但其活动积温代际变化区域特征与其他省区相比存在相似之处。
Active accumulated temperature is one of the most common and important evaluation indicators of agricultural climatic resources. Utilizing the daily mean temperature data from seventeen meteorological stations in Henan province from 1960 to 2009,this research used 5 days moving average method to calculate two kinds of active accumulated temperatures including ≥0℃ and ≥10℃. Basing on the GIS platform for spatial interpolation,this research studied the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of two kinds of active accumulated temperatures. The results were showed as follows. Firstly,on the whole change pattern,both kinds of active accumulated temperature were experienced upward trends,annual average of the former was 5 226℃,and 0. 13%/year increasing,four years of the oscillating period. The latter of annual average was 4 659℃,and 0. 22%/year increasing,three years of oscillating period. Secondly,on the temporal pattern,the change trends of them were similar,taking the year of 2000 as the boundary,i. e.,there was no obvious change before 2000 while they changed significantly after 2000,and both rising trends from south to north on the characteristics of regional differentiation. Both the temperature increasing induced by global warming and the strengthening of warming trend in the late winter or early spring may be the main reasons. Thirdly,on the spatial pattern,although these active accumulated temperatures both showed the trend of low in western or northern and high in eastern or southern,the accumulated temperature of ≥ 10℃ is more obvious. Fourthly, the numerical values of these two active accumulated temperatures both showed negative correlation with latitude and altitude. Compared with other regions or provinces,the results of the study show that there are obvious differences in the regional differentiation characteristics of active accumulated temperatures in Henan province, but these both active accumulated temperature varies with the characteristics of intergenerational changes.
Active accumulated temperature is one of the most common and important evaluation indicators of agricultural climatic resources. Utilizing the daily mean temperature data from seventeen meteorological stations in Henan province from 1960 to 2009,this research used 5 days moving average method to calculate two kinds of active accumulated temperatures including ≥0℃ and ≥10℃. Basing on the GIS platform for spatial interpolation,this research studied the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of two kinds of active accumulated temperatures. The results were showed as follows. Firstly,on the whole change pattern,both kinds of active accumulated temperature were experienced upward trends,annual average of the former was 5 226℃,and 0. 13%/year increasing,four years of the oscillating period. The latter of annual average was 4 659℃,and 0. 22%/year increasing,three years of oscillating period. Secondly,on the temporal pattern,the change trends of them were similar,taking the year of 2000 as the boundary,i. e.,there was no obvious change before 2000 while they changed significantly after 2000,and both rising trends from south to north on the characteristics of regional differentiation. Both the temperature increasing induced by global warming and the strengthening of warming trend in the late winter or early spring may be the main reasons. Thirdly,on the spatial pattern,although these active accumulated temperatures both showed the trend of low in western or northern and high in eastern or southern,the accumulated temperature of ≥ 10℃ is more obvious. Fourthly, the numerical values of these two active accumulated temperatures both showed negative correlation with latitude and altitude. Compared with other regions or provinces,the results of the study show that there are obvious differences in the regional differentiation characteristics of active accumulated temperatures in Henan province, but these both active accumulated temperature varies with the characteristics of intergenerational changes.
引文
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[7]李钰春,袁淑杰,邓涛,等.河北省活动积温时空分布规律研究.成都信息工程学院学报,2014,29(3):289-294.
[8]朱保美,周清,代玉田,等.德州市0℃界限温度变化及其对粮食作物的影响.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(3):86-92.
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[10]刘志娟,杨晓光,王文峰.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅳ.黄淮海平原半湿润暖温麦—玉两熟灌溉农区农业气候资源时空变化特征.应用生态学报,2011,22(4):905-912.
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[13]张鹏岩,王开泳,闫江虹.基于GIS的河南省玉米光合光温资源利用效率评价.资源科学,2011,33(12):2408-2416.
[14]高仲亮,周汝良,李智,等.积温分布的空间模拟及三维可视化初探.广东农业科学,2012,41(16):182-184.
[15]戴声佩,李海亮,罗红霞,等.基于多元线性回归模型的华南地区≥10℃积温空间模拟研究.热带农业科学,2014,34(6):54-59.
[16]靳国栋,刘衍聪,牛文杰.距离加权反比插值法和克里金插值法的比较.长春工业大学学报,2003,24(3):53-57.
[17]何?,傅德平,赵志敏,等.基于GIS的新疆降水空间插值方法分析.水土保持研究,2008,15(6):35-37.
[18]戴声佩,李海亮,罗红霞,等. 1960—2011年华南地区界限温度10℃积温时空变化分析.地理学报,2014,69(5):650-660.
[19]李赢,马世铭.黑龙江省活动积温时空变化特征及其对水稻单产的影响中国农业气象,2015,36(1):9-16.
[20]杨封科,何宝林,高世铭.气候变化对甘肃省粮食生产的影响研究进展.应用生态学报,2015,26(3):930-938.
[21]张戈丽,欧阳华,周才平,等.近50年来气候变化对西藏“一江二河”地区农业气候热量资源的影响.资源科学,2010,32(10):1943-1954.
[22]张戈丽,陶健,董金玮,等. 1960—2010年内蒙古东部地区生长季变化分析.资源科学,2011,33(11):2323-2332.
[2]谢云,符素华,邱扬,等.自然资源评价教程.北京:北京师范大学出版社,2009.
[3]王艳华,任传友,韩亚东,等.东北地区活动积温和极端持续低温的时空分布特征及其对粮食产量的影响.农业环境科学学报,2011,30(9):1742-1748.
[4]刘实,王勇,缪启龙,等.近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征.应用气象学报,2010,21(3):266-278.
[5]杨凤海,杨凤江,苏琦,等.基于Arc GIS的黑龙江省活动积温空间插值与计算.东北农业大学学报,2010,41(1):61-66.
[6]安昕,孟鹏,廖国进,等.沈阳市近50a10℃活动积温变化特征分析.气象科学,2011,31(s):145-148.
[7]李钰春,袁淑杰,邓涛,等.河北省活动积温时空分布规律研究.成都信息工程学院学报,2014,29(3):289-294.
[8]朱保美,周清,代玉田,等.德州市0℃界限温度变化及其对粮食作物的影响.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(3):86-92.
[9]刘洋,王占海,姜文来,等. 1956—2009年东北地区热量资源时空变化特征分析.中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(2):12-19.
[10]刘志娟,杨晓光,王文峰.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅳ.黄淮海平原半湿润暖温麦—玉两熟灌溉农区农业气候资源时空变化特征.应用生态学报,2011,22(4):905-912.
[11]韩相斌,吉振习.南乐县2007年度气候对农业生产的影响评价.河南农业,2008(6):56.
[12]仝文伟,查菲娜,王其英,等.气候变化对河南省小麦产量影响分析.河南科学,2009,27(12):1546-1549.
[13]张鹏岩,王开泳,闫江虹.基于GIS的河南省玉米光合光温资源利用效率评价.资源科学,2011,33(12):2408-2416.
[14]高仲亮,周汝良,李智,等.积温分布的空间模拟及三维可视化初探.广东农业科学,2012,41(16):182-184.
[15]戴声佩,李海亮,罗红霞,等.基于多元线性回归模型的华南地区≥10℃积温空间模拟研究.热带农业科学,2014,34(6):54-59.
[16]靳国栋,刘衍聪,牛文杰.距离加权反比插值法和克里金插值法的比较.长春工业大学学报,2003,24(3):53-57.
[17]何?,傅德平,赵志敏,等.基于GIS的新疆降水空间插值方法分析.水土保持研究,2008,15(6):35-37.
[18]戴声佩,李海亮,罗红霞,等. 1960—2011年华南地区界限温度10℃积温时空变化分析.地理学报,2014,69(5):650-660.
[19]李赢,马世铭.黑龙江省活动积温时空变化特征及其对水稻单产的影响中国农业气象,2015,36(1):9-16.
[20]杨封科,何宝林,高世铭.气候变化对甘肃省粮食生产的影响研究进展.应用生态学报,2015,26(3):930-938.
[21]张戈丽,欧阳华,周才平,等.近50年来气候变化对西藏“一江二河”地区农业气候热量资源的影响.资源科学,2010,32(10):1943-1954.
[22]张戈丽,陶健,董金玮,等. 1960—2010年内蒙古东部地区生长季变化分析.资源科学,2011,33(11):2323-2332.