1960—2013年黄土高原地区干湿界线时空变化特征
|
摘要
[目的]研究气候变暖背景下黄土高原地区干湿区界线动态变化过程。[方法]利用1960—2013年黄土高原地区的76个气象站点逐日平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、降水、平均风速、日照时数、相对湿度数据,采用Penman-Monteith模型计算了黄土高原地区的潜在蒸散量,进而计算干燥度指数。运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法对黄土高原地区的干燥度趋势进行了分析,运用反距离加权差值(IDW)研究了干燥度界线的动态变化格局。[结果]近54年黄土高原地区干燥度指数呈微弱增加趋势,四季变化中春季呈上升趋势,冬季为减小趋势,夏、秋季变化不明显,空间上兰州以西,银川—太原一线北干燥度指数呈减小趋势;(2)干旱与半干旱区界线在107. 5°E,37. 5°N以东表现为经向变化,以西为纬向变化,近54年干旱区范围变化不明显;(3)半干旱与半湿润区界线南北方向波动变化明显,20世纪90年代向南扩张到华家岭—六盘山—平凉—庆阳—延安—三门峡—长治一线以南,半干旱区面积达到最大,比20世纪60年代的半干旱区范围扩大14%,比2000—2009年大5%左右。[结论]近54年黄土高原总体上地区呈干旱化趋势,半干旱区面积扩大,半干旱与半湿润区界线年代际南北波动频繁,变化范围大,半干旱区是黄土高原地区气候变化的敏感区。
This research aims to study the dynamic change process of the boundary between dry and wet area in the Loess Plateau region under the background of climate warming. Based on the daily average temperature,average minimum and maximum temperature,precipitation,wind speed,sunshine hours,relative humidity of 76 meteorological stations in the Loess Plateau region from 1960 to 2013,the ET0 was calculated by using the Penman-Monteith model,and then the aridity index was calculated by the ET0 and precipitation. The trend of aridity index in the Loess Plateau was analyzed by using the linear trend method and Mann-Kendall trend test. Afterwards,the spatial characters of aridity index was addressed by inverse distance weighted interpolation( IDW). The variation of annual aridity index showed a weak increase trend in recent 54 years,while which presented different trends between seasons as well that the aridity index increased in Spring,decreased in Winter and varied insignificantly in Summer and Autumn. Besides,it showed a decreasing trend in the west of Lanzhou and the north of Yinchuan-Taiyuan line. The boundary between arid and semi-arid areas showed a longitudinal change trend to the east of 107. 5°E,37. 5°N,and to the west of which showed a latitudinal varying trend. Overall the variation of arid area range was not obvious in recent 54 years. The diving line of semi-arid and semi-humid zone showed significant fluctuating variation. In 1990 s,it expanded southward and crossed the line of Huajialing-Liupanshan-Pingliang-Qingyang-Yan'an-Sanmenxia-Changzhi,when the area of semi-arid zone reached the largest range which was 14% greater than the semi-arid area in 1960 s and 5% greater than the semi-arid area in 2000 s. In general,the climate change of Loess Plateau in recent 54 years presented an aridification trend,and the area of semi-arid zone expanded. The boundary between semi-arid and semi-humid region fluctuated frequently from north to south over the decades with a wide range of changes,and semi-arid zone was the sensitive area to climate change in the Loess Plateau region.
This research aims to study the dynamic change process of the boundary between dry and wet area in the Loess Plateau region under the background of climate warming. Based on the daily average temperature,average minimum and maximum temperature,precipitation,wind speed,sunshine hours,relative humidity of 76 meteorological stations in the Loess Plateau region from 1960 to 2013,the ET0 was calculated by using the Penman-Monteith model,and then the aridity index was calculated by the ET0 and precipitation. The trend of aridity index in the Loess Plateau was analyzed by using the linear trend method and Mann-Kendall trend test. Afterwards,the spatial characters of aridity index was addressed by inverse distance weighted interpolation( IDW). The variation of annual aridity index showed a weak increase trend in recent 54 years,while which presented different trends between seasons as well that the aridity index increased in Spring,decreased in Winter and varied insignificantly in Summer and Autumn. Besides,it showed a decreasing trend in the west of Lanzhou and the north of Yinchuan-Taiyuan line. The boundary between arid and semi-arid areas showed a longitudinal change trend to the east of 107. 5°E,37. 5°N,and to the west of which showed a latitudinal varying trend. Overall the variation of arid area range was not obvious in recent 54 years. The diving line of semi-arid and semi-humid zone showed significant fluctuating variation. In 1990 s,it expanded southward and crossed the line of Huajialing-Liupanshan-Pingliang-Qingyang-Yan'an-Sanmenxia-Changzhi,when the area of semi-arid zone reached the largest range which was 14% greater than the semi-arid area in 1960 s and 5% greater than the semi-arid area in 2000 s. In general,the climate change of Loess Plateau in recent 54 years presented an aridification trend,and the area of semi-arid zone expanded. The boundary between semi-arid and semi-humid region fluctuated frequently from north to south over the decades with a wide range of changes,and semi-arid zone was the sensitive area to climate change in the Loess Plateau region.
引文
[1]杨建平,丁永建,陈仁升,等.近50年来中国干湿气候界线的10年际波动.地理学报,2002,57(6):655-661.
[2]杨建平,丁永建,陈仁升.近50年中国干湿气候界线波动及其成因初探.气象学报,2003,61(3):364-373.
[3]杨强,郑西楠,何立恒.基于HadCM3模式的我国主要气候区划界线时空预测研究.干旱区地理,2017,40(1):17-25.
[4]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等. 1961—2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析.农业工程学报,2017a,33(6):124-132.
[5]姜江,姜大膀,林一骅.中国干湿区变化与预估.大气科学,2017,41(1):43-56.
[6] Dai A G. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature Climate Change,2013,3(1):52-58.
[7]普宗朝,张山清,王胜兰,等.近48a新疆干湿气候时空变化特征.中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1563-1572.
[8]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等.不同时间尺度下华北平原干湿气候时空变化及成因分析.中国农业气象,2017,38(5):267-277.
[9]贾孜拉·拜山,李维京,孙丞虎,等. 1961-2014年我国西南地区干湿季变化特征.气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):103-116.
[10]郑红星,刘静.东北地区近40年干燥指数变化趋势及其气候敏感性.地理研究,2011,30(10):1765-1774.
[11]高云,屈忠义,张圣微.近40年内蒙古自治区干燥度时空演变规律分析.内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版),2013,34(3):124-129.
[12]史建国,张燕卿,何文清,等.黄河流域干燥度时空格局变化研究.干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(1):42-246.
[13]中国科学院黄土高原综合科学考察队.黄土高原地区自然环境及其演变.北京:科学出版社. 1991.
[14]卞娟娟,郝志新,郑景云,等. 1951—2010年中国主要气候区划界线的移动.地理研究,2013,32(7):1179-1187.
[15]郑景云,卞娟娟,葛全胜,等. 1981—2010年中国气候区划.科学通报,2013,58(30):3088-3099.
[16]丘宝剑.中国的干旱气候.河南大学学报,1985(1):11-17.
[17]李庆祥.气象资料均一性研究导论.北京:气象出版社,2011:24-28.
[18] Wang Q X,Fan X H,qin Z D et al. Change trends of temperature and precipitation in the Loess Plateau region of China,1961-2010. Global and Planetary Change,2012,92-93(7):137.
[19]刘艳艳,张多勇,张耀宗,等. 1958—2012年河西走廊风能资源时空变化特征及影响因素分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(10):188-195.
[20]罗那那,巴特尔·巴克,吴燕锋,等. 1961—2013年塔城地区气候的时空变化特征.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):99-107.
[21]刘波,马柱国.过去45年中国干湿气候区域变化特征.干旱区地理,2007,30(1):7-15.
[22]马柱国,符淙斌.中国干旱和半干旱带的10年际演变特征.地球物理学报,2005,48(3):519-525.
[23]马柱国,符淙斌. 1951—2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实.科学通报,2006,51(20):2429-2439.
[24]黄建平,季明霞,刘玉芝,等.干旱半干旱区气候变化研究综述.气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):9-14.
[25]赵俊芳,郭建平,徐精文,等.基于湿润指数的中国干湿状况变化趋势.农业工程学报,2010,26(8):18-24.
[26] Berengena J,Gavilán P. Reference evapotranspiration estimation in a highly advective semiarid environment. Journal of Irrigation&Drainage Engineering,2005,131(2):147-163.
[27] Alkaeed O,Flores C,Jinno K,et al. comparison of several reference evapotranspiration methods for Itoshima Peninsula area,Fukuoka,Japan.Memoirs of the Faculty of Engineering. Kyushu University. 2006,66(1):1-14.
[28]张建平,王春乙,杨晓光,等.未来气候变化对中国东北三省玉米需水量的影响预测.农业工程学报,2009,25(7):50-55.
[29] Fatemeh R,Ali R S. Calibration and validation of four common ET0estimation equations by lysimeter data in a semi-arid environment. Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science. 2012,58(3):303-319.
[30]郑然,李栋梁. 1971—2011年青藏高原干湿气候区界线的年代际变化.中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1106-1115.
[31]申双和,张方敏,盛琼. 1975—2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征.农业工程学报,2009,25(1):11-15.
[32]李明星,马柱国.中国气候干湿变化及气候带边界演变:以集成土壤湿度为指标.科学通报,2012,57(28-29):2740-2754.
[2]杨建平,丁永建,陈仁升.近50年中国干湿气候界线波动及其成因初探.气象学报,2003,61(3):364-373.
[3]杨强,郑西楠,何立恒.基于HadCM3模式的我国主要气候区划界线时空预测研究.干旱区地理,2017,40(1):17-25.
[4]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等. 1961—2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析.农业工程学报,2017a,33(6):124-132.
[5]姜江,姜大膀,林一骅.中国干湿区变化与预估.大气科学,2017,41(1):43-56.
[6] Dai A G. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature Climate Change,2013,3(1):52-58.
[7]普宗朝,张山清,王胜兰,等.近48a新疆干湿气候时空变化特征.中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1563-1572.
[8]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等.不同时间尺度下华北平原干湿气候时空变化及成因分析.中国农业气象,2017,38(5):267-277.
[9]贾孜拉·拜山,李维京,孙丞虎,等. 1961-2014年我国西南地区干湿季变化特征.气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):103-116.
[10]郑红星,刘静.东北地区近40年干燥指数变化趋势及其气候敏感性.地理研究,2011,30(10):1765-1774.
[11]高云,屈忠义,张圣微.近40年内蒙古自治区干燥度时空演变规律分析.内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版),2013,34(3):124-129.
[12]史建国,张燕卿,何文清,等.黄河流域干燥度时空格局变化研究.干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(1):42-246.
[13]中国科学院黄土高原综合科学考察队.黄土高原地区自然环境及其演变.北京:科学出版社. 1991.
[14]卞娟娟,郝志新,郑景云,等. 1951—2010年中国主要气候区划界线的移动.地理研究,2013,32(7):1179-1187.
[15]郑景云,卞娟娟,葛全胜,等. 1981—2010年中国气候区划.科学通报,2013,58(30):3088-3099.
[16]丘宝剑.中国的干旱气候.河南大学学报,1985(1):11-17.
[17]李庆祥.气象资料均一性研究导论.北京:气象出版社,2011:24-28.
[18] Wang Q X,Fan X H,qin Z D et al. Change trends of temperature and precipitation in the Loess Plateau region of China,1961-2010. Global and Planetary Change,2012,92-93(7):137.
[19]刘艳艳,张多勇,张耀宗,等. 1958—2012年河西走廊风能资源时空变化特征及影响因素分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(10):188-195.
[20]罗那那,巴特尔·巴克,吴燕锋,等. 1961—2013年塔城地区气候的时空变化特征.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):99-107.
[21]刘波,马柱国.过去45年中国干湿气候区域变化特征.干旱区地理,2007,30(1):7-15.
[22]马柱国,符淙斌.中国干旱和半干旱带的10年际演变特征.地球物理学报,2005,48(3):519-525.
[23]马柱国,符淙斌. 1951—2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实.科学通报,2006,51(20):2429-2439.
[24]黄建平,季明霞,刘玉芝,等.干旱半干旱区气候变化研究综述.气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):9-14.
[25]赵俊芳,郭建平,徐精文,等.基于湿润指数的中国干湿状况变化趋势.农业工程学报,2010,26(8):18-24.
[26] Berengena J,Gavilán P. Reference evapotranspiration estimation in a highly advective semiarid environment. Journal of Irrigation&Drainage Engineering,2005,131(2):147-163.
[27] Alkaeed O,Flores C,Jinno K,et al. comparison of several reference evapotranspiration methods for Itoshima Peninsula area,Fukuoka,Japan.Memoirs of the Faculty of Engineering. Kyushu University. 2006,66(1):1-14.
[28]张建平,王春乙,杨晓光,等.未来气候变化对中国东北三省玉米需水量的影响预测.农业工程学报,2009,25(7):50-55.
[29] Fatemeh R,Ali R S. Calibration and validation of four common ET0estimation equations by lysimeter data in a semi-arid environment. Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science. 2012,58(3):303-319.
[30]郑然,李栋梁. 1971—2011年青藏高原干湿气候区界线的年代际变化.中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1106-1115.
[31]申双和,张方敏,盛琼. 1975—2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征.农业工程学报,2009,25(1):11-15.
[32]李明星,马柱国.中国气候干湿变化及气候带边界演变:以集成土壤湿度为指标.科学通报,2012,57(28-29):2740-2754.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |