基于城镇化发展趋势的中国交通网战略布局
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摘要
以世界城市化新趋势和日本高速交通网与京阪都市圈联结带建设为参照系,分析了中国城镇化和城镇体系变化新趋势,重点论述了在未来一段时间内中国面向集聚性发展的交通基础设施战略布局问题。世界城市化正表现为3个特征,它们是:全球城市和全球城市-区域发展,都市圈再繁荣,城市巨型化和巨型区出现。日本三大都市圈呈现两极分化发展,在围绕产业发展实施东京首都圈功能重组的同时,通过编制和实施新的国土发展计划,集中建设京阪都市圈联结带世界超级巨型区。2018年中国人口迈过峰值进入下降通道,然而国家城镇化进程还处在加速期,未来国家城镇体系将从现在的"三纵两横"发展为"四纵五横"发展轴。从整体上看,在未来一段时间内,尽管与之配套的基础设施需求进入平台阶段,但在国家战略地带和潜力增长区以及由于新技术发展还会让以大交通为主的基础设施建设异彩纷呈。在未来一段时间,首先国家战略地带交通网需要加密布局,例如发展长江经济带大通道、长江三角洲一体化高质量发展区扇形网、粤港澳大湾区陆上通道、环首都京津冀城市群交通网;其次需要超前规划布局无人驾驶高速公路,如上海-苏州无人驾驶高速公路、粤港澳大湾区内地无人驾驶高速公路和北京冬奥会无人驾驶高速公路;同时,重视补齐交通基础设施拉动潜力增长区发展,尤其应关注东北地区东、西高速通道、山东外向高速交通互联互通和东北-山东互联互通。此外,乌鲁木齐-喀什、银川-兰州-西宁、西宁-成都、重庆-贵阳-南宁-钦州、成都-拉萨、昆明-保山、银川-西安-武汉-南昌-福州-台北、合肥-南昌-赣州-广州等重要交通线规划布局也非常重要。
Based on the new trends of urbanization in the world and China as well as Japan's construction of the high-speed transportation network between Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas, this paper focuses on strategic layout issues and the development of the state transportation network in the future China. The paper recognized that the world urbanization is manifested in three characteristics: development of global cities and global city-regions,re-prosperity of metropolitan areas and urban giantization and new mega-regions. In Japan,three major metropolitan areas(Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto) are undergoing polarization development. While implementing the functional restructuring of the Tokyo metropolitan area for industrial development, two new territorial development plans have been launched for the construction of the world's largest super-mega-region.In China 2018, the total population has peaked and entered a downward channel. However, China's urbanization process is still in an accelerated period. In the near future, the national urban system will develop from the current"three verticals development axes and two horizontals development axes"to the"four vertical development axes and five horizontal development axes". On the whole, in the future, although the demand for infrastructure will be at a standstill stage, the infrastructure construction based on large traffic will be splendid in some national strategic zones and potential growth zones, as well as for meeting development of new technologies such as 5 G, self-driving cars, et al. These regions maybe become new highlight areas such as the Yangtze(changjiang) River Economic Belt, the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area, the Yangtze River Delta Higher Quality Development Integration Zone, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration toward the Beijing World City Construction, Northeast China and Shandong Province. Based on new trends of urbanization, China's transportation network strategic should focus on following three aspects: 1) the state transportation networks should be encrypted in some national strategic zone; 2) Planning and construction of the driverless highway in advance; 3) Pay attention to the development of transportation infrastructure to stimulate the development of potential growth zones. For example, the eastern and western high-speed passages in the Northeast, the high-speed traffic interconnection between Shandong and Jiangsu, Henan and Hebei, and Northeast China. In addition, some other high-speed traffic lines have also become more and more important for the development of the Central China and the western China, for example, the line between Urumqi and Kashgar,Yinchuan-Lanzhou-Xining, Xining-Chengdu, Chongqing-Guiyang-Nanning-Qinzhou, Chengdu-Lhasa, Kunming-Baoshan, Yinchuan-Xi'an-Wuhan-Nanchang-Fuzhou-Taipei, Hefei-Nanchang-Zhangzhou, etc..
Based on the new trends of urbanization in the world and China as well as Japan's construction of the high-speed transportation network between Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas, this paper focuses on strategic layout issues and the development of the state transportation network in the future China. The paper recognized that the world urbanization is manifested in three characteristics: development of global cities and global city-regions,re-prosperity of metropolitan areas and urban giantization and new mega-regions. In Japan,three major metropolitan areas(Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto) are undergoing polarization development. While implementing the functional restructuring of the Tokyo metropolitan area for industrial development, two new territorial development plans have been launched for the construction of the world's largest super-mega-region.In China 2018, the total population has peaked and entered a downward channel. However, China's urbanization process is still in an accelerated period. In the near future, the national urban system will develop from the current"three verticals development axes and two horizontals development axes"to the"four vertical development axes and five horizontal development axes". On the whole, in the future, although the demand for infrastructure will be at a standstill stage, the infrastructure construction based on large traffic will be splendid in some national strategic zones and potential growth zones, as well as for meeting development of new technologies such as 5 G, self-driving cars, et al. These regions maybe become new highlight areas such as the Yangtze(changjiang) River Economic Belt, the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area, the Yangtze River Delta Higher Quality Development Integration Zone, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration toward the Beijing World City Construction, Northeast China and Shandong Province. Based on new trends of urbanization, China's transportation network strategic should focus on following three aspects: 1) the state transportation networks should be encrypted in some national strategic zone; 2) Planning and construction of the driverless highway in advance; 3) Pay attention to the development of transportation infrastructure to stimulate the development of potential growth zones. For example, the eastern and western high-speed passages in the Northeast, the high-speed traffic interconnection between Shandong and Jiangsu, Henan and Hebei, and Northeast China. In addition, some other high-speed traffic lines have also become more and more important for the development of the Central China and the western China, for example, the line between Urumqi and Kashgar,Yinchuan-Lanzhou-Xining, Xining-Chengdu, Chongqing-Guiyang-Nanning-Qinzhou, Chengdu-Lhasa, Kunming-Baoshan, Yinchuan-Xi'an-Wuhan-Nanchang-Fuzhou-Taipei, Hefei-Nanchang-Zhangzhou, etc..
引文
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[26]钟业喜,冯兴华,文玉钊.长江经济带经济网络结构演变及其驱动机制研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):10-19.[Zhong Yexi,Feng Xinghua,Wen Yuzhao.The evolve-ment and driving mechanism of economic network structure in the Changjiang River Economic Zone.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):10-19.]
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[29]孙阳,姚士谋,张落成.中国沿海三大城市群城市空间网络拓展分析--以综合交通信息网络为例[J].地理科学,2018,38(6):827-837.[Sun Yang,Yao Shimou,Zhang Luocheng.Spatial expansion of urban network for the three coastal agglomerations of China:A study based on integrated traffic information network.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(6):827-837.]
[30]王姣娥,杜德林.东北振兴以来地区经济发展水平演化及空间分异模式[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1320-1328.[Wang Jiao’e,Du Delin.The evolution of economic development level in Northeast China and its spatial differentiation mode scince.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(9):1320-1328.]
[31]顾朝林,翟炜.东北亚人文和经济地理[J].经济地理,2019,39(1):8-20.[Gu Chaolin,Zhai Wei.Humanities and economic geography of Northeast Asia.Economic geography,2019,39(1):8-20.]
[2]左坤.未来十年中国基础设施建设的发展前瞻-McKinsey Greater China[J].麦肯锡季刊,2014(10):10-12.[Zuo Kun.Development prospect of infrastructure construction in China in the next decade:McKinsey Greater China.McKinsey Quarterly,2014(10):10-12.]
[3]Sassen S.The global city:New York,London,Tokyo[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,1991.
[4]Scott A J,Storper M.Regions,globalization,development[J].Regional Studies,2003,37(6-7):579-593.
[5]American Census Bureau.Final report and recommendations from the metropolitan area standards review committee to the office of management and budget concerning changes to the standards for defining metropolitan areas[R].Washington DC:Federal Register Notices,2000:70525-70561.
[6]木内信藏.都市地理学原理[M].东京:古今书院,1979.[Uchichi Shin-zo.Principles of urban geography.Tokyo:Ancient and Modern Academies,1979.]
[7]李俊果.都市区快速交通系统规划研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2010.[Li Junguo.Study on the planning of metro rapid transit system.Shanghai:Shanghai Jiaotong University,2010.]
[8]GU C.Urbanization:Processes and driving forces[J/OL].Science,China Earth Science,62.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-018-9359-y.
[9]Chaplin S E.Indian cities,sanitation and the state:The politics of the failure to provide[J].Environ Urban,2011,23:57-70.
[10]Florida R,Gulden T,Mellander C.The rise of the mega-region[J].Charlotta Mellander,2008,1(3):459-476.
[11]Marull J,Galletto V,Domene E et al.Emerging megaregions:Anew spatial scale to explore urban sustainability[J].Land Use Policy,2013,34(34):353-366.
[12]United Nations Department of Economic,Social Affairs.2014revision of the World Urbanization Prospects[EB/OL].Multimedia Library.https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/2014-revision-world-urbanization-prospects.html.2014-10-01.[2019/3/25.]
[13]USA:Regional Plan Association.Megaregions:America2050[EB/OL].https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaregions_of_the_United_States[2014-01-01].
[14]United Nations Population Fund.Urbanization[EB/OL].http://www.unfpa.org/urbanization.2016-10-03.
[15]任泽平,熊柴.未来2亿“新城里人”,大多涌向这19个城市群!中国人口大迁移解密[N/OL].凤凰网财经,http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20180713/16383001_0.shtml.2018-07-13.[Ren Zeping,Xiong Chai,2018.In the future,200 million"new city residents"will flock to these 19 urban agglomerations!China's large population migration,the phoenix network finance,Phoenix Finance.http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20180713/16383001_0.shtml.2018-07-03.]
[16]姚传德.日本近代城市发展研究[M].苏州:苏州大学出版社,2015:92-96.[Yao Chuande.Research on modern Japanese urban development.Suzhou:Soochow University Press,2015:92-96.]
[17]Gu C.Urbanization:Positive and negative effects[J].Chin.Sci.Bull,2019,64:281-283.
[18]顾朝林,管卫华,刘合林.中国城镇化2050:SD模型与过程模拟[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(7):818-832.[Gu Chaolin,Guan Weihua,Liu Helin.China urbanization 2050:SD model and process simulation.China Science:Earth Science,2017,47(7):818-832.]
[19]国家统计局综合司.全国各省、自治区、直辖市历史统计资料汇编[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1990.[Department of General Statistics,National Bureau of Statistics.Compilation of historical statistical data of all provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities.Beijing:China Statistical Press,1990.]
[20]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.[National Bureau of Statistics.China statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistical Press,2017.]
[21]世界银行.2015年世界发展指标[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2015.[World Bank.2015 world development indications.Beijing:China Fiscal and Economic Press,2015.]
[22]李在军,张雅倩,胡美娟,等.新时期中国经济增长的空间格局[J].地理科学,2016,36(8):1134-1140.[Li Zaijun,Zhang Yaqian,Hu Meijuan et al.Spatial pattern of chinese economic growth at county level in the 21th century.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(8):1134-1140.]
[23]顾朝林,陈璐,丁睿,等.全球化与重建国家城市体系设想[J].地理科学,2005,25(6):6641-6654.[Gu Chaolin,Chen Lu,Ding Rui et al.Globalization and reconstruction of national urban system.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2005,25(6):6641-6654.]
[24]Gu C,Ian Cook.Urbanization and urban system[C]//Wu W,Frazier Mark(eds).The sage handbook of contemporary China.London:SAGE Publicatiions Ltd.,2018:827-847.
[25]顾朝林,于涛方,李王鸣.中国城市化:格局·过程·机理[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.[Gu Chaolin,Yu Taofang,Li Wangming.Chin’s urbanization:Pattern,process and mechanism.Beijing:Science Press,2008.]
[26]钟业喜,冯兴华,文玉钊.长江经济带经济网络结构演变及其驱动机制研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):10-19.[Zhong Yexi,Feng Xinghua,Wen Yuzhao.The evolve-ment and driving mechanism of economic network structure in the Changjiang River Economic Zone.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):10-19.]
[27]王毅,陈娱,陆玉麒,等.城市门户性与中国门户群研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(3):331-338.[Wang Yi,Chen Yu,Lu Yuqi et al.Analysis on the gateway property and gateway-city groups of China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(3):331-338.]
[28]王成金,程佳佳.中国高速公路网的可达性格局及演化[J].地理科学,2016,36(6):803-812.[Wang Chengjin,Cheng Jiajia.Spatial pattern of expressway network Ac cessibility and evolution in China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(6):803-812.]
[29]孙阳,姚士谋,张落成.中国沿海三大城市群城市空间网络拓展分析--以综合交通信息网络为例[J].地理科学,2018,38(6):827-837.[Sun Yang,Yao Shimou,Zhang Luocheng.Spatial expansion of urban network for the three coastal agglomerations of China:A study based on integrated traffic information network.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(6):827-837.]
[30]王姣娥,杜德林.东北振兴以来地区经济发展水平演化及空间分异模式[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1320-1328.[Wang Jiao’e,Du Delin.The evolution of economic development level in Northeast China and its spatial differentiation mode scince.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(9):1320-1328.]
[31]顾朝林,翟炜.东北亚人文和经济地理[J].经济地理,2019,39(1):8-20.[Gu Chaolin,Zhai Wei.Humanities and economic geography of Northeast Asia.Economic geography,2019,39(1):8-20.]
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