低温与西湖龙井茶开采时间关系研究
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摘要
通过搜集整理西湖龙井茶主栽品种(龙井43和龙井群体种)开采期、洪峰期资料,分析2005-2014年1～3月各旬不同低温天数与西湖龙井茶开采时间日序关系,研究低温对西湖龙井茶开采时间的影响。结果表明:2月中旬和下旬日最低气温(Tmin)≤2℃的低温天数与西湖龙井茶开采时间关系最为密切,低温天数偏多,开采时间延后,反之提前;龙井43和龙井群体种的开采期、洪峰期日序距平与2月中旬、下旬Tmin≤2℃天数距平的线性回归预报模型均通过0. 05的显著性检验,具有实际应用价值。
Low temperature is the key factor to influence the picking date and yield of West Lake Longjing Tea. The relationship between low temperature days in every ten days from January to March and the daily sequence of picking date of West Lake Longjing Tea was analyzed by collecting and sorting out the data of the main varieties of West Lake Longjing Tea during the picking and plucking peak period in order to find out the key factors,then the comparison method and linear regression method were used to predict the picking date,furthermore,the effect of climate change to West Lake Longjing Tea picking was analyzed.Results showed that,the number of days with daily minimum temperature≤2℃ in mid-February and lateFebruary were most closely related to the picking date of West Lake Longjing Tea,the picking date would delay with the increase of low temperature days,and vice versa. The linear regression prediction model between the number of days with minimum temperature ≤2℃ in mid-February and late-February and the daily sequence anomaly of picking date and plucking peak date of Longjing 43 and Longjing main species had passed the 0. 05 significance test.
Low temperature is the key factor to influence the picking date and yield of West Lake Longjing Tea. The relationship between low temperature days in every ten days from January to March and the daily sequence of picking date of West Lake Longjing Tea was analyzed by collecting and sorting out the data of the main varieties of West Lake Longjing Tea during the picking and plucking peak period in order to find out the key factors,then the comparison method and linear regression method were used to predict the picking date,furthermore,the effect of climate change to West Lake Longjing Tea picking was analyzed.Results showed that,the number of days with daily minimum temperature≤2℃ in mid-February and lateFebruary were most closely related to the picking date of West Lake Longjing Tea,the picking date would delay with the increase of low temperature days,and vice versa. The linear regression prediction model between the number of days with minimum temperature ≤2℃ in mid-February and late-February and the daily sequence anomaly of picking date and plucking peak date of Longjing 43 and Longjing main species had passed the 0. 05 significance test.
引文
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[2]李旭群.雨前“茅山青峰”、“雨花”茶开采期预报方法[J].中国农业气象,1990,11(2):59-61.
[3]姜燕敏,金志凤,李松平,等.浙南春茶开采前后气象条件分析及开采期预报[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):212-219.
[4]李仁忠,金志凤,杨再强,等.浙江省茶树春霜冻害气象指标的修订[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(10):2659-2666.
[5]许永妙,李慧娟,黄海涛,等.杭州茶园春季霜冻害的影响因素分析与对策研究[J].中国茶叶,2014(7):24-25
[6]吴杨,金志凤,叶建刚,等.浙江茶树春霜冻发生规律及其与太平洋海温的遥相关分析.中国农业气象,2014,35(4):434-439.
[7]王俊,蒯志敏,张旭晖等.江苏省春霜冻发生时空演变规律及其对春茶的影响.中国农业气象,2011(增1):222-226.
[8] Christersson L. 1971. Frost damage resulting from ice crystal formation in seeding of spruce and pine[J].PhysiologiaPlantarum,25:273-278.
[9]屠其濮,王俊强,丁裕国,等.气象应用概率统计学[M],北京:气象出版社. 1984年.
[10]金志凤,姚益平,李仁忠,等. DB 33/T995-2015.茶树霜冻等级[S].杭州:浙江省质量技术监督局,2015.
[11]金志凤,胡波,严甲真,等.浙江省茶叶农业气象灾害风险评价.生态学杂志,2014,33(3):771-777.
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