渤、黄海生态环境模拟的参数敏感度空间差异分析
|
摘要
随着海洋生态系统模型的发展,生态变量增多,众多生物过程参数量值的确定成为制约生态环境模拟的瓶颈问题,生态系统结构区域性要求模型中的生态参数具有区域差异。为探究不同海区的关键参数及参数敏感度的空间差异,本研究在渤、黄海建立了ROMS-CoSiNE物理–生物耦合的高分辨率生态系统模型,并对13种生态参数的敏感度空间分布进行分析。结果表明:南黄海中部与渤海及近岸海域的敏感度差异较大。渤海敏感度最大的参数为决定光合速率的浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率,其次为浮游动物捕食半饱和常数和浮游动物最大捕食率。而南黄海中部敏感度最大的参数为浮游动物最大捕食率,其次为浮游植物死亡率和浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率。结合敏感度分布及浮游植物生物量收支得出,渤海水体透明度较南黄海偏低、浮游植物生长光限制较强,是引起浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率敏感度在渤海高于黄海的主要原因。浮游动物最大捕食率及浮游植物死亡率的敏感度空间差异,受渤、黄海浮游植物生物量差异的影响,与生态系统中的高度非线性特征有关。
As the development of marine ecosystem models, the number of biological parameters increases, which consequently causes determination of these parameters to become a bottleneck in ecosystem modeling. Intrinsic regional characteristics of the ecosystem require spatial variability of biological parameters. To explore spatial difference of key parameters and their sensitivity, a highly resolved physical-biological ecosystem model ROMS-CoSiNE of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is established. Sensitivity analysis of thirteen biological parameters indicates that strong difference in sensitivity exist between the south center Yellow Sea, the Bohai Sea and it's coastal areas as well. The most sensitive parameter in the Bohai Sea is the initial slope of P-I curve. The second and third are the half saturation constant for zooplankton grazing and the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton. For the south Yellow Sea, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton, the death rate of phytoplankton and the initial slope of P-I curve. Based on sensitivity distribution and phytoplankton budget, it is concluded that the low transparency in the Bohai Sea and high transparency in the Yellow Sea are mainly responsible for spatial difference of sensitivity relative to the initial slope of P-I curve. Spatial difference of sensitivity relative to the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton and the death rate of phytoplankton, is affected by phytoplankton amount difference between the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, and related to high nonlinearity in the ecosystem.
As the development of marine ecosystem models, the number of biological parameters increases, which consequently causes determination of these parameters to become a bottleneck in ecosystem modeling. Intrinsic regional characteristics of the ecosystem require spatial variability of biological parameters. To explore spatial difference of key parameters and their sensitivity, a highly resolved physical-biological ecosystem model ROMS-CoSiNE of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is established. Sensitivity analysis of thirteen biological parameters indicates that strong difference in sensitivity exist between the south center Yellow Sea, the Bohai Sea and it's coastal areas as well. The most sensitive parameter in the Bohai Sea is the initial slope of P-I curve. The second and third are the half saturation constant for zooplankton grazing and the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton. For the south Yellow Sea, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton, the death rate of phytoplankton and the initial slope of P-I curve. Based on sensitivity distribution and phytoplankton budget, it is concluded that the low transparency in the Bohai Sea and high transparency in the Yellow Sea are mainly responsible for spatial difference of sensitivity relative to the initial slope of P-I curve. Spatial difference of sensitivity relative to the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton and the death rate of phytoplankton, is affected by phytoplankton amount difference between the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, and related to high nonlinearity in the ecosystem.
引文
[1]Denman K L.Modelling planktonic ecosystems:parameterizing complexity[J].Progress in Oceanography,2003,57(3/4):429-452.
[2]Losa S N,Kivman G A,Ryabchenko V A.Weak constraint parameter estimation for a simple ocean ecosystem model:what can we learn about the model and data?[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2004,45(1/2):1-20.
[3]Mateus M D,Franz G.Sensitivity analysis in a complex marine ecological model[J].Water,2015,7(5):2060-2081.
[4]Kishi M J,Nakata K,Ishikawa K.Sensitivity analysis of a coastal marine ecosystem[J].Journal of the Oceanographical Society of Japan,1981,37(3):120-134.
[5]高会旺,孙文心,翟雪梅.水层生态系统动力学模式参数的敏感性分析[J].青岛海洋大学学报,1999,29(3):398-404.Gao Huiwang,Sun Wenxin,Zhai Xuemei.Sensitive analysis of the parameters of a pelagic ecosystem dynamic model[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,1999,29(3):398-404.
[6]赵亮.渤海浮游植物生态动力学模型研究[D].青岛:青岛海洋大学,2002.Zhao Liang.A modeling study of the phytoplankton dynamic in the Bohai Sea[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2002.
[7]Kuroda H,Kishi M J.A data assimilation technique applied to estimate parameters for the NEMURO marine ecosystem model[J].Ecological Modelling,2004,172(1):69-85.
[8]Ji X L,Liu G M,Gao S,et al.Parameter sensitivity study of the biogeochemical model in the China coastal seas[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,34(12):51-60.
[9]Losa S N,Vézina A,Wright D,et al.3D ecosystem modelling in the North Atlantic:relative impacts of physical and biological parameterizations[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2006,61(3/4):230-245.
[10]Fennel K,Losch M,Schr?ter J,et al.Testing a marine ecosystem model:sensitivity analysis and parameter optimization[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2001,28(1/2):45-63.
[11]王春晖.海洋生态系统动力学模型伴随同化研究及应用[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2013.Wang Chunhui.Numerical study and application of a marine ecosystem dynamical model with adjoint assimilation method[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2013.
[12]俞光耀,吴增茂,张志南,等.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学模型与模拟Ⅰ.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学模型[J].青岛海洋大学学报,1999,29(3):421-428.Yu Guangyao,Wu Zengmao,Zhang Zhinan,et al.A pelagic ecosystem model and simulation of the northern part of Jiaozhou BayⅠ.Introduction to pelagic ecosystem model[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,1999,29(3):421-428.
[13]吴增茂,俞光耀,张志南,等.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学模型与模拟Ⅱ.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学的模拟研究[J].青岛海洋大学学报,1999,29(3):429-435.Wu Zengmao,Yu Guangyao,Zhang Zhinan,et al.A pelagic ecosystem model and simulation of the northern part of Jiaozhou BayⅡ.Asimulation study on the pelagic ecosystem Seasonal variations[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,1999,29(3):429-435.
[14]Zhu Hai,Cui Maochang.Coupled physical-ecological modelling of the central part of Jiaozhou BayⅠ.Physical modelling[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2000,18(4):309-314.
[15]Cui Maochang,Zhu Hai.Coupled physical-ecological modelling in the central part of Jiaozhou BayⅡ.Coupled with an ecological model[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2001,19(1):21-28.
[16]魏皓,赵亮,于志刚,等.渤海浮游植物生物量时空变化初析[J].青岛海洋大学学报,2003,33(2):173-179.Wei Hao,Zhao Liang,Yu Zhigang,et al.Variation of the phytoplankton biomass in the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,2003,33(2):173-179.
[17]Wei Hao,Sun Jun,Moll A,et al.Phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Sea-observations and modelling[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2004,44(3/4):233-251.
[18]Zhao Liang,Wei Hao.The influence of physical factors on the variation of phytoplankton and nutrients in the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Oceanography,2005,61(2):335-342.
[19]夏洁,高会旺.南黄海东部海域浮游生态系统要素季节变化的模拟研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(4):59-65.Xia Jie,Gao Huiwang.Simulation on seasonal cycle vertical structure of plankton ecosystem in eastern area of South Yellow Sea[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2006,6(4):59-65.
[20]刘浩,尹宝树.渤海生态动力过程的模型研究Ⅰ.模型描述[J].海洋学报,2006,28(6):21-31.Liu Hao,Yin Baoshu.Model study on Bohai ecosystemⅠ.Model description and primary productivity[J].Haiyang Xuebao,2006,28(6):21-31.
[21]刘浩,潘伟然.营养盐负荷对浮游植物水华影响的模型研究[J].水科学进展,2008,19(3):345-351.Liu Hao,Pan Weiran.Model for study on Impact of external nutrient sources on the Algalbloom[J].Advances in Water Science,2008,19(3):345-351.
[22]Shchepetkin A F,McWilliams J C.The regional oceanic modeling system(ROMS):a split-explicit,free-surface,topography-followingcoordinate oceanic model[J].Ocean Modelling,2005,9(4):347-404.
[23]Chai F,Dugdale R C,Peng T H,et al.One-dimensional ecosystem model of the equatorial Pacific upwelling system.PartⅠ:model development and silicon and nitrogen cycle[J].Deep-Sea Research PartⅡ:Topical Studies in Oceanography,2002,49(13/14):2713-2745.
[24]Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,et al.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2011,137(656):553-597.
[25]Wang Jianing,Yan Weijin,Chen Nengwang,et al.Modeled long-term changes of DIN:DIP ratio in the Changjiang River in relation to Chl-αand DO concentrations in adjacent estuary[J].Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science,2015,166:153-160.
[26]Zhang Jing.Nutrient elements in large Chinese estuaries[J].Continental Shelf Research,1996,16(8):1023-1045.
[27]Liu S M,Hong G H,Zhang J,et al.Nutrient budgets for large Chinese estuaries[J].Biogeosciences,2009,6(10):2245-2263.
[28]Tong Yindong,Zhao Yue,Zhen Gengchong,et al.Nutrient loads flowing into coastal waters from the main rivers of China(2006-2012)[J].Scientific Reports,2015,5:16678.
[29]Zielinski O,Llinás O,Oschlies A,et al.Underwater light field and its effect on a one-dimensional ecosystem model at station ESTOC,north of the Canary Islands[J].Deep-Sea Research PartⅡ:Topical Studies in Oceanography,2002,49(17):3529-3542.
[30]Evans G T,Parslow J S.A model of annual plankton cycles[J].Biological Oceanography,1985,3(3):327-347.
[31]Zhou Feng,Chai Fei,Huang Daji,et al.Investigation of hypoxia off the Changjiang Estuary using a coupled model of ROMS-CoSiNE[J].Progress in Oceanography,2017,159:237-254.
[32]Fujii M,Chai Fei.Modeling carbon and silicon cycling in the equatorial Pacific[J].Deep-Sea Research PartⅡ:Topical Studies in Oceanography,2007,54(5/7):496-520.
[33]Fujii M,Boss E,Chai F.The value of adding optics to ecosystem models:a case study[J].Biogeosciences Discussions,2007,4(3):1585-1631.
[34]Kishi M J,Kashiwai M,Ware D M,et al.NEMURO-a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem[J].Ecological Modelling,2007,202(1/2):12-25.
[35]Popova E E,Lozano C J,Srokosz M A,et al.Coupled 3D physical and biological modelling of the mesoscale variability observed in North-East Atlantic in spring 1997:biological processes[J].Deep-Sea Research PartⅠ:Oceanographic Research Papers,2002,49(10):1741-1768.
[36]Ji Rubao,Davis C,Chen Changsheng,et al.Influence of local and external processes on the annual nitrogen cycle and primary productivity on Georges Bank:a 3-D biological-physical modeling study[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2008,73(1/2):31-47.
[37]Kawamiya M,Kishi M J,Suginohara N.An ecosystem model for the North Pacific embedded in a general circulation model:PartⅠ:Model description and characteristics of spatial distributions of biological variables[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2000,25(2):129-157.
[38]Lima I D,Doney S C.A three-dimensional,multinutrient,and size-structured ecosystem model for the North Atlantic[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2004,18(3):GB3019.
[39]官文江,何贤强,潘德炉,等.渤、黄、东海海洋初级生产力的遥感估算[J].水产学报,2005,29(3):367-372.Guan Wenjiang,He Xianqiang,Pan Delu,et al.Estimation of ocean primary production by remote sensing in Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea and East China Sea[J].Journal of Fisheries of China,2005,29(3):367-372.
[40]朱兰部,赵保仁.渤、黄、东海透明度的分布与变化[J].海洋湖沼通报,1991(3):1-11.Zhu Lanbu,Zhao Baoren.Distributions and variations of the transparency in the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea and East China Sea[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,1991(3):1-11.
[41]高会旺,杨华,张英娟,等.渤海初级生产力的若干理化影响因子初步分析[J].青岛海洋大学学报,2001,31(4):487-494.Gao Huiwang,Yang Hua,Zhang Yingjuan,et al.A preliminary study on factors affecting the primary production in the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,2001,31(4):487-494.
[42]洪华生.中国区域海洋学:化学海洋学[M].北京:海洋出版社,2012.Hong Huasheng.Regional Oceanography of China Seas:Chemical Oceanography[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2012.
[2]Losa S N,Kivman G A,Ryabchenko V A.Weak constraint parameter estimation for a simple ocean ecosystem model:what can we learn about the model and data?[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2004,45(1/2):1-20.
[3]Mateus M D,Franz G.Sensitivity analysis in a complex marine ecological model[J].Water,2015,7(5):2060-2081.
[4]Kishi M J,Nakata K,Ishikawa K.Sensitivity analysis of a coastal marine ecosystem[J].Journal of the Oceanographical Society of Japan,1981,37(3):120-134.
[5]高会旺,孙文心,翟雪梅.水层生态系统动力学模式参数的敏感性分析[J].青岛海洋大学学报,1999,29(3):398-404.Gao Huiwang,Sun Wenxin,Zhai Xuemei.Sensitive analysis of the parameters of a pelagic ecosystem dynamic model[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,1999,29(3):398-404.
[6]赵亮.渤海浮游植物生态动力学模型研究[D].青岛:青岛海洋大学,2002.Zhao Liang.A modeling study of the phytoplankton dynamic in the Bohai Sea[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2002.
[7]Kuroda H,Kishi M J.A data assimilation technique applied to estimate parameters for the NEMURO marine ecosystem model[J].Ecological Modelling,2004,172(1):69-85.
[8]Ji X L,Liu G M,Gao S,et al.Parameter sensitivity study of the biogeochemical model in the China coastal seas[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,34(12):51-60.
[9]Losa S N,Vézina A,Wright D,et al.3D ecosystem modelling in the North Atlantic:relative impacts of physical and biological parameterizations[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2006,61(3/4):230-245.
[10]Fennel K,Losch M,Schr?ter J,et al.Testing a marine ecosystem model:sensitivity analysis and parameter optimization[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2001,28(1/2):45-63.
[11]王春晖.海洋生态系统动力学模型伴随同化研究及应用[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2013.Wang Chunhui.Numerical study and application of a marine ecosystem dynamical model with adjoint assimilation method[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2013.
[12]俞光耀,吴增茂,张志南,等.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学模型与模拟Ⅰ.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学模型[J].青岛海洋大学学报,1999,29(3):421-428.Yu Guangyao,Wu Zengmao,Zhang Zhinan,et al.A pelagic ecosystem model and simulation of the northern part of Jiaozhou BayⅠ.Introduction to pelagic ecosystem model[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,1999,29(3):421-428.
[13]吴增茂,俞光耀,张志南,等.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学模型与模拟Ⅱ.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学的模拟研究[J].青岛海洋大学学报,1999,29(3):429-435.Wu Zengmao,Yu Guangyao,Zhang Zhinan,et al.A pelagic ecosystem model and simulation of the northern part of Jiaozhou BayⅡ.Asimulation study on the pelagic ecosystem Seasonal variations[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,1999,29(3):429-435.
[14]Zhu Hai,Cui Maochang.Coupled physical-ecological modelling of the central part of Jiaozhou BayⅠ.Physical modelling[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2000,18(4):309-314.
[15]Cui Maochang,Zhu Hai.Coupled physical-ecological modelling in the central part of Jiaozhou BayⅡ.Coupled with an ecological model[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2001,19(1):21-28.
[16]魏皓,赵亮,于志刚,等.渤海浮游植物生物量时空变化初析[J].青岛海洋大学学报,2003,33(2):173-179.Wei Hao,Zhao Liang,Yu Zhigang,et al.Variation of the phytoplankton biomass in the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,2003,33(2):173-179.
[17]Wei Hao,Sun Jun,Moll A,et al.Phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Sea-observations and modelling[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2004,44(3/4):233-251.
[18]Zhao Liang,Wei Hao.The influence of physical factors on the variation of phytoplankton and nutrients in the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Oceanography,2005,61(2):335-342.
[19]夏洁,高会旺.南黄海东部海域浮游生态系统要素季节变化的模拟研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(4):59-65.Xia Jie,Gao Huiwang.Simulation on seasonal cycle vertical structure of plankton ecosystem in eastern area of South Yellow Sea[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2006,6(4):59-65.
[20]刘浩,尹宝树.渤海生态动力过程的模型研究Ⅰ.模型描述[J].海洋学报,2006,28(6):21-31.Liu Hao,Yin Baoshu.Model study on Bohai ecosystemⅠ.Model description and primary productivity[J].Haiyang Xuebao,2006,28(6):21-31.
[21]刘浩,潘伟然.营养盐负荷对浮游植物水华影响的模型研究[J].水科学进展,2008,19(3):345-351.Liu Hao,Pan Weiran.Model for study on Impact of external nutrient sources on the Algalbloom[J].Advances in Water Science,2008,19(3):345-351.
[22]Shchepetkin A F,McWilliams J C.The regional oceanic modeling system(ROMS):a split-explicit,free-surface,topography-followingcoordinate oceanic model[J].Ocean Modelling,2005,9(4):347-404.
[23]Chai F,Dugdale R C,Peng T H,et al.One-dimensional ecosystem model of the equatorial Pacific upwelling system.PartⅠ:model development and silicon and nitrogen cycle[J].Deep-Sea Research PartⅡ:Topical Studies in Oceanography,2002,49(13/14):2713-2745.
[24]Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,et al.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2011,137(656):553-597.
[25]Wang Jianing,Yan Weijin,Chen Nengwang,et al.Modeled long-term changes of DIN:DIP ratio in the Changjiang River in relation to Chl-αand DO concentrations in adjacent estuary[J].Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science,2015,166:153-160.
[26]Zhang Jing.Nutrient elements in large Chinese estuaries[J].Continental Shelf Research,1996,16(8):1023-1045.
[27]Liu S M,Hong G H,Zhang J,et al.Nutrient budgets for large Chinese estuaries[J].Biogeosciences,2009,6(10):2245-2263.
[28]Tong Yindong,Zhao Yue,Zhen Gengchong,et al.Nutrient loads flowing into coastal waters from the main rivers of China(2006-2012)[J].Scientific Reports,2015,5:16678.
[29]Zielinski O,Llinás O,Oschlies A,et al.Underwater light field and its effect on a one-dimensional ecosystem model at station ESTOC,north of the Canary Islands[J].Deep-Sea Research PartⅡ:Topical Studies in Oceanography,2002,49(17):3529-3542.
[30]Evans G T,Parslow J S.A model of annual plankton cycles[J].Biological Oceanography,1985,3(3):327-347.
[31]Zhou Feng,Chai Fei,Huang Daji,et al.Investigation of hypoxia off the Changjiang Estuary using a coupled model of ROMS-CoSiNE[J].Progress in Oceanography,2017,159:237-254.
[32]Fujii M,Chai Fei.Modeling carbon and silicon cycling in the equatorial Pacific[J].Deep-Sea Research PartⅡ:Topical Studies in Oceanography,2007,54(5/7):496-520.
[33]Fujii M,Boss E,Chai F.The value of adding optics to ecosystem models:a case study[J].Biogeosciences Discussions,2007,4(3):1585-1631.
[34]Kishi M J,Kashiwai M,Ware D M,et al.NEMURO-a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem[J].Ecological Modelling,2007,202(1/2):12-25.
[35]Popova E E,Lozano C J,Srokosz M A,et al.Coupled 3D physical and biological modelling of the mesoscale variability observed in North-East Atlantic in spring 1997:biological processes[J].Deep-Sea Research PartⅠ:Oceanographic Research Papers,2002,49(10):1741-1768.
[36]Ji Rubao,Davis C,Chen Changsheng,et al.Influence of local and external processes on the annual nitrogen cycle and primary productivity on Georges Bank:a 3-D biological-physical modeling study[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2008,73(1/2):31-47.
[37]Kawamiya M,Kishi M J,Suginohara N.An ecosystem model for the North Pacific embedded in a general circulation model:PartⅠ:Model description and characteristics of spatial distributions of biological variables[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2000,25(2):129-157.
[38]Lima I D,Doney S C.A three-dimensional,multinutrient,and size-structured ecosystem model for the North Atlantic[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2004,18(3):GB3019.
[39]官文江,何贤强,潘德炉,等.渤、黄、东海海洋初级生产力的遥感估算[J].水产学报,2005,29(3):367-372.Guan Wenjiang,He Xianqiang,Pan Delu,et al.Estimation of ocean primary production by remote sensing in Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea and East China Sea[J].Journal of Fisheries of China,2005,29(3):367-372.
[40]朱兰部,赵保仁.渤、黄、东海透明度的分布与变化[J].海洋湖沼通报,1991(3):1-11.Zhu Lanbu,Zhao Baoren.Distributions and variations of the transparency in the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea and East China Sea[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,1991(3):1-11.
[41]高会旺,杨华,张英娟,等.渤海初级生产力的若干理化影响因子初步分析[J].青岛海洋大学学报,2001,31(4):487-494.Gao Huiwang,Yang Hua,Zhang Yingjuan,et al.A preliminary study on factors affecting the primary production in the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,2001,31(4):487-494.
[42]洪华生.中国区域海洋学:化学海洋学[M].北京:海洋出版社,2012.Hong Huasheng.Regional Oceanography of China Seas:Chemical Oceanography[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2012.