近50年我国极端降水时空变化特征综述
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摘要
全球变暖背景下,我国极端降水事件频发,引发严重水土流失事件,并造成重大损失;因此,开展极端降水及其时空变化特征研究对明晰极端降水变化规律、指导水土保持规划和治理等工作具有重要现实意义。目前,我国基于不同时空尺度的极端降水及其变化趋势的研究已取得丰富的成果,但对这些成果的总结和提炼不足,不利于正确认识我国极端降水规律。笔者通过搜集大量相关文献,对我国极端降水的时空变化特征进行分析,认为整体上我国极端降水事件呈增加趋势,但华北、东北和西北东部等地区呈减小趋势。研究表明,我国目前极端降水研究具有以下薄弱环节:1)气象站点密度普遍偏小; 2)地形因素对极端降水的影响考虑不足; 3)点状和面状降水数据结合不够紧密——从而造成不同学者在同一区域的研究结论往往不尽相同,一定程度上降低了研究结论的可靠性和可比性,也使得研究成果对实践工作的指导能力不足。建议后续研究应加密气象站点、充分考虑复杂地形条件对极端降水的影响以及加强点状和面状降雨数据的结合,以期获得更为准确的极端降水时空变化规律,增强对水土保持、防汛抗旱和水利工程防护等实践工作的指导作用。
[Background]Extreme precipitation events occurred frequently in China due to the climate change and global warming,resulting in severe soil erosion events and huge property and personnel losses,such as the torrential rains in Wudinghe Basin in 2017. Thus, studies on the extreme precipitation events and their spatial-temporal variations are of great importance for soil and water conservation planning and management. Currently,there are abundant researches on this issue across China,however,the results of these studies have not been fully and comprehensively analyzed,which limited us for better understanding the extreme precipitation events in China. [Methods]In this study,s researches on extreme precipitation in China have been collected,important information such as the extreme precipitation indices,diagnostic methods for trend analysis,interpolation methods for spatial interpolation,and the results on spatial-temporal variations were extracted from literatures according to different regions of China and then, summarized and compared with each other with carefulness.[Results]After the comprehensively review of published literature,it is found that the spatial-temporal trends were mainly analyzed based on daily precipitation from meteorological stations and a nonsignificant increasing trend for extreme precipitation was reported on the national scale,of which,the increasing trends were mainly in South China and Southwest China,while the decreasing trends in North China,Northwest China and Northwest China. However,there are still some deficiencies which may limit the further researches: first,currently the densities of rain gauges in many studies are usually sparse;second,the effects of topographical factors on extreme precipitation are usually not taken consideration,probably due to the rain gauges are sited preferably in the flatland; third,the spatial-temporal trends may be greatly affected by the inter-decadal quasi-periodic oscillations in rainfall since the study period in many studies are relatively short. These deficiencies may have lower down the reliability of current studies and then make different studies less comparable. Under this circumstance,some advices aiming to improve the further studies have been proposed in this study: first,more meteorological station should be established quickly to get more available precipitation data; second,studies on the effects of topographic factors on extreme precipitation should be strengthened,which can be initiated from small scale watershed with plenty rainfall and hydrological data and then extend to wider regions; third,the precipitation data from meteorological stations should be used combinedly with spatial coverage data,such as TRMM to improve the station based data. [Conclusions]The researches on extreme precipitation events in China have been reviewed from published literature in this study,it can bee seen that many valuable results have been reported while there are still some deficiencies. Some advices were proposed in this study for future researches and it is expected more valuable results can be acquired in the future,which are also important for practical works,such as flood control,soil conservation,etc..
[Background]Extreme precipitation events occurred frequently in China due to the climate change and global warming,resulting in severe soil erosion events and huge property and personnel losses,such as the torrential rains in Wudinghe Basin in 2017. Thus, studies on the extreme precipitation events and their spatial-temporal variations are of great importance for soil and water conservation planning and management. Currently,there are abundant researches on this issue across China,however,the results of these studies have not been fully and comprehensively analyzed,which limited us for better understanding the extreme precipitation events in China. [Methods]In this study,s researches on extreme precipitation in China have been collected,important information such as the extreme precipitation indices,diagnostic methods for trend analysis,interpolation methods for spatial interpolation,and the results on spatial-temporal variations were extracted from literatures according to different regions of China and then, summarized and compared with each other with carefulness.[Results]After the comprehensively review of published literature,it is found that the spatial-temporal trends were mainly analyzed based on daily precipitation from meteorological stations and a nonsignificant increasing trend for extreme precipitation was reported on the national scale,of which,the increasing trends were mainly in South China and Southwest China,while the decreasing trends in North China,Northwest China and Northwest China. However,there are still some deficiencies which may limit the further researches: first,currently the densities of rain gauges in many studies are usually sparse;second,the effects of topographical factors on extreme precipitation are usually not taken consideration,probably due to the rain gauges are sited preferably in the flatland; third,the spatial-temporal trends may be greatly affected by the inter-decadal quasi-periodic oscillations in rainfall since the study period in many studies are relatively short. These deficiencies may have lower down the reliability of current studies and then make different studies less comparable. Under this circumstance,some advices aiming to improve the further studies have been proposed in this study: first,more meteorological station should be established quickly to get more available precipitation data; second,studies on the effects of topographic factors on extreme precipitation should be strengthened,which can be initiated from small scale watershed with plenty rainfall and hydrological data and then extend to wider regions; third,the precipitation data from meteorological stations should be used combinedly with spatial coverage data,such as TRMM to improve the station based data. [Conclusions]The researches on extreme precipitation events in China have been reviewed from published literature in this study,it can bee seen that many valuable results have been reported while there are still some deficiencies. Some advices were proposed in this study for future researches and it is expected more valuable results can be acquired in the future,which are also important for practical works,such as flood control,soil conservation,etc..
引文
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[4]BENISTON M,STEPHENSON D B,CHRISTENSEN OB,et al.Future extreme events in European climate:an exploration of regional climate model projections[J].Climatic Change,2007,81(S1):71.
[5]孔锋,史培军,方建,等.全球变化背景下极端降水时空格局变化及其影响因素研究进展和展望[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):165.KONG Feng,SHI Peijun,FANG Jian,et al.Advances and prospects of spatiotemporal pattern variation of extreme precipitation and its affecting factors under the background of global climate change[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(2):165.
[6]王占礼,邵明安,常庆瑞.黄土高原降雨因素对土壤侵蚀的影响[J].西北农业大学学报,1998,26(4):106.WANG Zhanli,SHAO Mingan,CHANG Qingrui.Effects of rainfall factors on soil erosion in Loess Plateau[J].Acta Univ.Agric.Boreali-occidentalis,1998,26(4):106.
[7]高涛,谢立安.近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(5):577.GAO Tao,XIE Lian.Study on progress of the trends and physical causes of extreme precipitation in China during the last 50 years[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(5):577.
[8]王苗,郭品文,邬昀,等.我国极端降水事件研究进展[J].气象科技,2012,40(1):79.WANG Miao,GUO Pinwen,WU Yun,et al.Research progress on extreme precipitation events in China[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2012,40(1):79.
[9]胡宜昌,董文杰,何勇.21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(10):1066.HUYichang,DONG Wenjie,HE Yong.Progress of the study of extreme weather and climate events at the beginning of the twenty first century[J].Advances in Earth Science,2007,22(10):1066.
[10]任正果,张明军,王圣杰,等.1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):640.REN Zhengguo,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Shengjie,et al.Changes in precipitation extremes in south China during 1961-2011[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(5):640.
[11]王冀,江志红,严明良,等.1960-2005年长江中下游极端降水指数变化特征分析[J].气象科学,2008,28(4):384.WANG Ji,JIANG Zhihong,YAN Mingliang,et al.Trends of extreme precipitation indices in the mid-lower Yangtze River valley of China during 1960-2005[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2008,28(4):384.
[12]袁文德,郑江坤,董奎.1962-2012年西南地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):766.YUAN Wende,ZHENG Jiangkun,DONG Kui.Spatial and temporal variation in extreme precipitation events in Southwestern China during 1962-2012[J].Resources Science,2014,36(4):766.
[13]丁文荣.西南地区极端降水的时空变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(7):1071.DING Wenrong.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in Southwest China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(7):1071.
[14]LIAN Lishu,XU Shujing,LI Zhifu,et al.Spatial-temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Northwest China during 1961-2010[J].Meteorological and Environmental Research,2014,5(1):12.
[15]潘晓华.近五十年中国极端温度和降水事件变化规律的研究[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2002:65.PAN Xiaohua.Research on the change law of extreme temperature and precipitation events in China in the past fifty years[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,2002:65.
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