1961—2015年中国降水面积变化特征研究
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摘要
基于中国0.5°×0.5°逐月与逐日降水量网格数据集,采用线性趋势、克里金插值(Kriging)、森斜率等方法,分析1961—2015年中国3个自然区的降水量和降水面积的变化特征。结果表明:(1)中国1961—2015年年均和季节平均降水量呈现由东南沿海向西北内陆递减的空间分布特征,中国一半以上的地区年均和四季降水量呈增加趋势。(2)日变化特征上,东部季风区、西北干旱区和青藏高寒区均以小雨和中雨为主,其日降水面积多年平均值分别为:1 112.75×10~3 km~2、52.65×10~3 km~2,1 380.57×10~3 km~2、92.83×10~3 km~2,1 253.9×10~3 km~2、34.3×10~3 km~2,暴雨和大暴雨占的面积较小;三个区域不同等级日降水面积年内变化均符合二次函数曲线,三个区小雨日平均降水面积年际变化均呈略微减少趋势,青藏高寒区和西北干旱区大雨、暴雨和大暴雨均呈略微增加趋势,大暴雨整体波动较大。(3)季节变化特征上,三个区四季均以小雨为主,暴雨和大暴雨所占面积较少。春季和秋季三个区小雨降水面积均呈减少趋势,春季和夏季三个区暴雨降水面积均呈增加趋势,冬季三个区中雨和大雨降水面积呈增加趋势。(4)东部季风区春季和秋季,西北干旱区年均和四季,青藏高寒区春季、秋季和冬季不同等级降水量对应的降水面积均符合负指数分布规律。
The non-uniformity of precipitation elements(precipitation, precipitation intensity,precipitation frequency,precipitation area) in time and space leads to the frequent occurrence of many natural disasters(storms,floods,continuous rain,landslides,mudslides,et al.),causing great losses to people's production and life,which have raised great concern. Based on 0.5°×0.5° monthly and daily precipitation grid datasets in China from 1961 to 2015,the characteristics of precipitation and precipitation area in three regions of China were analyzed using linear trend method,Kriging interpolation method and forest slope method.The annual and seasonal average precipitation both presented a decreasing pattern from the southeast coast to the northwest inland,the annual and seasonal average precipitation in over half of China's region showed an increasing trend.In terms of daily and seasonal variations,light rain and moderate rain mainly were concentrated in the eastern monsoon region and the northwest arid region and the Qinghai-Tibet alpine region of China,but the area occupied by rainstorm and heavy rainstorm was small.The annual variation of daily precipitation area at different levels in the three regions followed a quadratic function curve,and the inter annual variation of the average precipitation area in the three regions showed a slight decrease.The heavy rain,rainstorm and downpour displayed a slightly increasing trend in the Qinghai-Tibet alpine region and the arid areas of northwest China.From the seasonal change characteristic perspective,the light rain dominated in all seasons in the three regions.The areas with rainstorm or downpour accounted for a smaller proportion.Precipitation areas of light rain in the three regions in spring and autumn showed a decreasing trend,and rainstorm in spring and summer showed an increasing trend,and moderate rain and heavy rain in winter showed an increasing trend.The precipitation areas at different levels of precipitation all conformed to a negative index distribution in the eastern monsoon region in spring and autumn,in the arid areas of northwest China in all seasons and in the Qinghai-Tibet alpine region in spring,autumn and winter.The variation characteristics of precipitation area in China provides a good basis for formulating climate change strategies.It is also of great significance for the comprehensive management of water resources and flood control and disaster mitigation in the basin.
The non-uniformity of precipitation elements(precipitation, precipitation intensity,precipitation frequency,precipitation area) in time and space leads to the frequent occurrence of many natural disasters(storms,floods,continuous rain,landslides,mudslides,et al.),causing great losses to people's production and life,which have raised great concern. Based on 0.5°×0.5° monthly and daily precipitation grid datasets in China from 1961 to 2015,the characteristics of precipitation and precipitation area in three regions of China were analyzed using linear trend method,Kriging interpolation method and forest slope method.The annual and seasonal average precipitation both presented a decreasing pattern from the southeast coast to the northwest inland,the annual and seasonal average precipitation in over half of China's region showed an increasing trend.In terms of daily and seasonal variations,light rain and moderate rain mainly were concentrated in the eastern monsoon region and the northwest arid region and the Qinghai-Tibet alpine region of China,but the area occupied by rainstorm and heavy rainstorm was small.The annual variation of daily precipitation area at different levels in the three regions followed a quadratic function curve,and the inter annual variation of the average precipitation area in the three regions showed a slight decrease.The heavy rain,rainstorm and downpour displayed a slightly increasing trend in the Qinghai-Tibet alpine region and the arid areas of northwest China.From the seasonal change characteristic perspective,the light rain dominated in all seasons in the three regions.The areas with rainstorm or downpour accounted for a smaller proportion.Precipitation areas of light rain in the three regions in spring and autumn showed a decreasing trend,and rainstorm in spring and summer showed an increasing trend,and moderate rain and heavy rain in winter showed an increasing trend.The precipitation areas at different levels of precipitation all conformed to a negative index distribution in the eastern monsoon region in spring and autumn,in the arid areas of northwest China in all seasons and in the Qinghai-Tibet alpine region in spring,autumn and winter.The variation characteristics of precipitation area in China provides a good basis for formulating climate change strategies.It is also of great significance for the comprehensive management of water resources and flood control and disaster mitigation in the basin.
引文
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[2] 宋世凯.全球变暖背景下1960—2014年中国降水时空变化特征[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2017:1-137.[SONG Shikai.Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of precipitation over China during 1960—2014 under global warming[D].Urumqi:Xinjiang University,2017:1-137.]
[3] 李佳秀,杜春丽,杜世飞,等.新疆极端降水事件的时空变化及趋势预测[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(6):1103-1112.[LI Jiaxiu,DU Chunli,DU Shifei,et al.Temporal-spatial variation and trend prediction of extreme precipitation events in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2015,32(6):1103-1112.]
[4] 陈荣,张明军,王圣杰,等.2008—2014年新疆夏季逐时雨强时空特征及其影响因素[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(6):1240-1249.[CHEN Rong,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Shengjie,et al.Spatio-temporal variation of hourly rainfall intensity and its affecting factors in Xinjiang in summer during the period from 2008 to 2014[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(6):1240-1249.]
[5] 程炳岩,顾万龙,李云,等.中国日降水量与其占有面积的函数关系[J].高原气象,2005,24(3):422-427.[CHENG Bingyan,GU Wanlong,LI Yun,et al.Function relationship between daily rainfall in China and its area in horizontal region[J].Plateau Meteorology,2005,24(3):422-427.]
[6] 张学文.从熵原理得出的暴雨面积和雨量的关系[J].高原气象,1991,10(3):225-232.[ZHANG Xuewen.The relationship between the area and the depth of the storms derived from entropy principle[J].Plateau Meteorology,1991,10(3):225-232.]
[7] 陈鹏.不同等级降水量与降水面积关系分析[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2017:1-59.[CHEN Peng.Analysis of relationship between precipitation and precipitation area at different grades[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,2017:1-59.]
[8] ADAM W,MARTA C,ROBERT T.A model for estimating rains’area,using the dependence of the time correlation of sites’ monthly precipitation totals on the distance between sites[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2016,124:913-918.
[9] 刘欢,郭建平,陈田萌,等.全球热带海洋地区降水季节变化的TRMM卫星观测[J].科学通报,2017,62(1):90-104.[LIU Huan,GUO Jianping,CHEN tianmeng,et al.On the seasonal variation of various types of precipitation over global tropical ocean region:A perspective from TRMM measurements[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2017,62(1):90-104.]
[10] 马力.多年平均年降水量的面积分布律[J].气象,1980,22(12):35-39.[MA Li.The area distribution law of the mean-years annual precipitation[J].Meteorological Monthly,1980,22(12):35-39.]
[11] 张学文.雨区相对面积的出现概率分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(4):13-16.[ZHANG Xuewen.Probability analysis of relative rainfall area[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2007,1(4):13-16.]
[12] 陈鹏,程思,陈景丽.GIS支持下的雨量时空分布特征分析[J].气象水文海洋仪器,2013,(1):21-24.[CHEN Peng,CHENG Si,CHEN Jingli.Spatio temporal distribution of precipitation based on GIS[J].Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments,2013,(1):21-24.]
[13] 陈晓燕,尚可政,王式功,等.近50年中国不同强度降水日数时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(5):766-772.[CHEN Xiaoyan,SHANG Kezheng,WANG Shigong,et al.Analysis on the spatio temporal characteristics of precipitation under different intensities in China in recent 50 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2010,27(5):766-772.]
[14] 孙凤华,杨素英,任国玉.东北地区降水日数、强度和持续时间的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(5):610-618.[SUN Fenghua,YANG Suying,REN Guoyu.Decade variations of precipitation event frequency,intensity and duration in the Northeast China[J].Journal of Applied Metcorological Science,2007,18(5):610-618.]
[15] 陈少勇,任燕,乔立.中国西北地区大雨以上降水日数的时空分布特征[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):958-965.[CHEN Shaoyong,REN Yan,QIAO Li,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of days with above heavy rainfall over northwestern China[J].Resources Science,2011,33(5):958-965.]
[16] 马力,沙拉买提.暴雨降水强度和历时的面积分布律[J].高原气象,1993,12(4):432-436.[MA Li,SHA Lamaiti.Distribution regularity of precipitation intensity and duration over an area[J].Plateau Meteorology,1993,12(4):432-436.]
[17] 全国农业区划委员会《中国自然区划概要》编写组.中国自然区划概要[M].北京:科学出版社,1984.[National Agricultural Regional Planning Committee,‘Comprehensive Outline of China’s Natural Regionalization’ Compilation Group.Outline of natural division in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1984.]
[18] 李芬,张建新,张荣.1958—2013年山西降水时空分布[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(5):1301-1311.[LI Fen,ZHANG Jianxin,ZHANG Rong.Spatial-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Shanxi during 1958—2013[J].Journal of Desert Research,2015,35(5):1301-1311.]
[19] 任正果,张明军,王圣杰,等.1961—2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):640-649.[REN Zhengguo,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Shengjie,et al.Changes in precipitation extremes in South China during 1961—2011[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(5):640-649.]
[20] 国家气象信息中心.中国地面降水0.5°×0.5°格点数据集(V2.0)评估报告[R].北京:国家气象信息中心,2012.[National Meteorological Information Center.Assessment report of China’s ground precipitation 0.5°×0.5°gridded dataset (V2.0)[R].Beijing:National Meteorological Information Center,2012.]
[21] 赵煜飞,朱江,许艳.近50 a中国降水格点数据集的建立及质量评估[J].气象科学,2014,34(4):414-420.[ZHAO Yufei,ZHU Jiang,XU Yan.Establishment and assessment of the grid precipitation datasets in China for recent 50 years[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(4):414-420.]
[22] 王大钧,陈列,丁裕国.近40年来中国降水量、雨日变化趋势及与全球温度变化的关系[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(3):283-289.[WANG Dajun,CHEN Lie,DING Yuguo.Changes of precipitation and rain day in China in the last 40 years and their relations with global temperature changes[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,22(3):283-289.]
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