基于Shift-Share的辽宁老工业基地区域经济弹性特征分析
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摘要
研究老工业基地经济弹性特征对于增强其应对国内外扰动,促进落后的老工业基地全面振兴具有重要意义。本文采用区域经济弹性概念,在对1990—2015年辽宁老工业基地经济周期划分的基础上,测度各城市不同周期中经济抵抗力和恢复力表征区域经济弹性,借助shiftshare分析法将区域经济弹性分解为产业结构分量和区域竞争力分量,揭示区域经济弹性的作用机制,结果发现:在不同时段内的区域经济弹性具有动态差异性特征,辽宁省对冲击扰动的抵抗力较低,容易遭受冲击影响;城市产业结构和区域竞争力均对区域经济弹性产生重要作用,且区域竞争力起主导作用,当前辽宁区域经济弹性受产业结构素质低和竞争力弱双重约束;服务业受老工业基地"路径依赖"影响,长期存在结构水平低和竞争力弱问题,第二产业结构素质和竞争力不匹配问题严重,路径依赖下的制度锁定现象仍旧存在,这都限制了辽宁的区域经济弹性水平。针对区域经济弹性特征和内部机制,提出了促进辽宁老工业基地经济振兴的对策建议。
It is of great significance to study the economic resilience characteristics of old industrial bases to promote the revitalization of these decayed old industrial areas and to enhance their capacity on resisting against domestic and global disruptions. This paper uses the concept of regional economic resilience to show the mechanisms underlying the economic development of Liaoning Province. First, it divides the economic growth rate of Liaoning Province from 1990-2015 into different economic cycles. Then, this paper characterizes the regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province by measuring its urban economic resistance and recovery feature in different periods. Meanwhile, the paper explores the mechanism underlying regional economic resilience by decomposing regional economic resilience into two aspects through the Shift-Share method: the industrial structure and the regional competitiveness. We obtained the following three main findings. First, regional economic resilience displays different characteristics which are dynamically changing across different periods. Compared with the whole nation, urban economy of Liaoning Province shows a lower resistance capacity against various disturbance, and it is more vulnerable to these disruptions.Second, both urban industrial structure and regional competitiveness can affect the capacity of regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province. We found that the regional competitiveness plays a more significant role, as the capacity of Liaoning's regional economic resilience is constrained by its industrial structure and competitiveness. Third, "path dependence" has affected the development of service industry in the province for a long time, which is featured by the low level of industry structure and weak competitiveness. We also discovered that there exists a serious mismatch between the industrial structure level and the competitiveness in the secondary industry. Influenced by the phenomenon of institutional locking under the path dependence, the state-owned economy, which is often of poor management, accounts for a large proportion in the secondary industry. These all restrict the regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province. Aiming at exploring the characteristics and internal mechanism of regional economic resilience, the paper put forward some suggestions for the economic revitalization of Liaoning old industrial base.
It is of great significance to study the economic resilience characteristics of old industrial bases to promote the revitalization of these decayed old industrial areas and to enhance their capacity on resisting against domestic and global disruptions. This paper uses the concept of regional economic resilience to show the mechanisms underlying the economic development of Liaoning Province. First, it divides the economic growth rate of Liaoning Province from 1990-2015 into different economic cycles. Then, this paper characterizes the regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province by measuring its urban economic resistance and recovery feature in different periods. Meanwhile, the paper explores the mechanism underlying regional economic resilience by decomposing regional economic resilience into two aspects through the Shift-Share method: the industrial structure and the regional competitiveness. We obtained the following three main findings. First, regional economic resilience displays different characteristics which are dynamically changing across different periods. Compared with the whole nation, urban economy of Liaoning Province shows a lower resistance capacity against various disturbance, and it is more vulnerable to these disruptions.Second, both urban industrial structure and regional competitiveness can affect the capacity of regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province. We found that the regional competitiveness plays a more significant role, as the capacity of Liaoning's regional economic resilience is constrained by its industrial structure and competitiveness. Third, "path dependence" has affected the development of service industry in the province for a long time, which is featured by the low level of industry structure and weak competitiveness. We also discovered that there exists a serious mismatch between the industrial structure level and the competitiveness in the secondary industry. Influenced by the phenomenon of institutional locking under the path dependence, the state-owned economy, which is often of poor management, accounts for a large proportion in the secondary industry. These all restrict the regional economic resilience of Liaoning Province. Aiming at exploring the characteristics and internal mechanism of regional economic resilience, the paper put forward some suggestions for the economic revitalization of Liaoning old industrial base.
引文
[1]Martin R.Regional economic resilience,hysteresis and recessionary shocks.Journal of Economic Geography,2012,12(1):1-32.
[2]Rose A.Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters:Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions.Environmental Hazards,2007,7(4):383-398.
[3]Holling C S.Resilience and stability of ecological systems.Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,1973,4(1):1-23.
[4]Martin R,Sunley P,Gardiner B,et al.How regions react to recessions:Resilience and the role of economic structure.Regional Studies,2016,50(4):561-585.
[5]Martin R,Sunley P.On the notion of regional economic resilience:Conceptualization and explanation.Journal of Economic Geography,2015,15(1):1-42.
[6]Eraydin A.Attributes and characteristics of regional resilience:defining and measuring the resilience of Turkish regions.Regional Studies,2016,50(4):600-614.
[7]Simmie J,Martin R.The economic resilience of regions:Towards an evolutionary approach.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,3(1):27-43.
[8]Davies S.Regional resilience in the 2008-2010 downturn:Comparative evidence from European countries.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,25(8):650-667.
[9]Cerra V,Panizza U,Saxena S C.International evidence on recovery from recessions.Contemporary Economic Policy,2013,31(2):424-439.
[10]Fingleton B,Garretsen H,Martin R.Recessionary shocks and regional employment:Evidence on the resilience of UK regions.Journal of Regional Science,2012,52(1):109-133.
[11]Doran J,Fingleton B.Employment resilience in Europe and the 2008 economic crisis:Insights from micro-level data.Regional Studies,2016,50(4):644-656.
[12]Reggiani A,De Graaff T,Nijkamp P.Resilience:An evolutionary approach to spatial economic systems.Networks and Spatial Economics,2002,2(2):211-229.
[13]Rose A,Krausmann E.An economic framework for the development of a resilience index for business recovery.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2013,5:73-83.
[14]Davoudi S,Shaw K,Haider L J,et al.Resilience:A bridging concept or a dead end?.Planning Theory&Practice,2012,13(2):299-333.
[15]Bristow G.Resilient regions:Re-‘place'ing regional competitiveness.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010:3(1):153-167.
[16]Modica M,Reggiani A.Spatial economic resilience:Overview and perspectives.Networks and Spatial Economics,2015,15(2):211-233.
[17]Holm J R,?stergaard C R.Regional employment growth,shocks and regional industrial resilience:A quantitative analysis of the Danish ICT sector.Regional Studies,2015,49(1):95-112.
[18]蔡建明,郭华,汪德根.国外弹性城市研究述评.地理科学进展,2012,31(10):1245-1255.[Cai Jianming,Guo Hua,Wang Degen.Review on the resilient city research overseas.Progress in Geography,2012,31(10):1245-1255.]
[19]彭翀,袁敏航,顾朝林,等.区域弹性的理论与实践研究进展.城市规划学刊,2015,(1):84-92.[Peng Chong,Yuan Minhang,Gu Chaolin,et al.Research progress on the theory and practice of regional resilience.Urban Planning Forum,2015,(1):84-92.]
[20]Christopherson S,Michie J,Tyler P.Regional resilience:Theoretical and empirical perspectives.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,3(1):3-10.
[21]Di Caro P.Recessions,recoveries and regional resilience:Evidence on Italy.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2015,8(2):273-291.
[22]Breathnach P,Van Egeraat C,Curran D.Regional economic resilience in Ireland:The roles of industrial structure and foreign inward investment.Regional Studies,Regional Science,2015,2(1):497-517.
[23]Tan J T,Zhang P Y,Lo K,et al.Conceptualizing and measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities:Case study of Northeast China.Chinese Geographical Science,2017,27(3):471-481.
[24]Brakman S,Garretsen H,van Marrewijk C.Regional resilience across Europe:On urbanisation and the initial impact of the Great Recession.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2015,8(2):225-240.
[25]Laubscher P.The business cycle resilience of the Western Cape economy:A regional analysis of the 2009 recession and subsequent recovery.Studies in Economics and Econometrics,2017,41(3):1-33.
[26]Dissart JC.Regional economic diversity and regional economic stability:Research results and agenda.International Regional Science Review,2003,26(4):423-46.
[27]Davies A,Tonts M.Economic diversity and regional socioeconomic performance:An empirical analysis of the Western Australian grain belt.Geographical Research,2010,48(3):223-34.
[28]Angulo AM,Mur J,Trívez FJ.Measuring resilience to economic shocks:An application to Spain.The Annals of Regional Science,2018,60(2):349-73.
[29]张平宇.东北区域发展报告2008.北京:科学出版社,2008.[Zhang Pingyu.Annual Report of Northeast China Development.Beijing:Science Press,2008.]
[30]鲍振东,李向平.辽宁工业经济史.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014.[Bao Zhendong,Li Xiangping.Industrial Economy History of Liaoning Province.Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press,2014.]
[31]常丽.辽宁产业结构与就业结构协同性实证研究.中国科技论坛,2010,(1):49-55.[Chang Li.Poaitive study on the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure development in Liaoning.Forum on Science and Technology in China,2010,(1):49-55.]
[32]姜健力.辽宁经济发展与发展方式的转变.沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版),2008,(1):7-12+105.[Jiang Jianli.On economic development and transformation of development ways in Liaoning province.Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Science Edition),2008,(1):7-12,105.]
[33]邢军伟.实施振兴战略后辽宁老工业基地产业结构调整升级研究.科技促进发展,2015,(4):530-536.[Xing Junwei.Research on industrial structure upgrade in Liaoning old industrial bases after the implementation of revitalization strategy.Science&Technology for Development,2015,(4):530-536.]
[34]樊杰,刘汉初,王亚飞,等.东北现象再解析和东北振兴预判研究:对影响国土空间开发保护格局变化稳定因素的初探.地理科学,2016,36(10):1445-1456.[Fan Jie,Liu Hanchu,Wang Yafei,et al.“The Northeast China Phenomenon”and prejudgment on economic revitalization in Northeast China:A primary research on stable factors to impact national spatial development and protection pattern.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(10):1445-1456.]
[35]陈琳琳,金凤君,洪辉.东北地区工业基地演化路径研究.地理科学,2016,36(9):1378-1387.[Chen Linlin,Jin Fengjun,Hong Hui.The evolution path of the industrial base in Northeast China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(9):1378-1387.]
[36]姜晓丽,张平宇,郭文炯.辽宁沿海经济带产业分工研究.地理研究,2014,33(1):96-106.[Jiang Xiaoli,Zhang Pingyu,Guo Wenjiong.The study on division of labor in Liaoning coastal economic belt.Geographical Research,2014,33(1):96-106.]
[2]Rose A.Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters:Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions.Environmental Hazards,2007,7(4):383-398.
[3]Holling C S.Resilience and stability of ecological systems.Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,1973,4(1):1-23.
[4]Martin R,Sunley P,Gardiner B,et al.How regions react to recessions:Resilience and the role of economic structure.Regional Studies,2016,50(4):561-585.
[5]Martin R,Sunley P.On the notion of regional economic resilience:Conceptualization and explanation.Journal of Economic Geography,2015,15(1):1-42.
[6]Eraydin A.Attributes and characteristics of regional resilience:defining and measuring the resilience of Turkish regions.Regional Studies,2016,50(4):600-614.
[7]Simmie J,Martin R.The economic resilience of regions:Towards an evolutionary approach.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,3(1):27-43.
[8]Davies S.Regional resilience in the 2008-2010 downturn:Comparative evidence from European countries.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,25(8):650-667.
[9]Cerra V,Panizza U,Saxena S C.International evidence on recovery from recessions.Contemporary Economic Policy,2013,31(2):424-439.
[10]Fingleton B,Garretsen H,Martin R.Recessionary shocks and regional employment:Evidence on the resilience of UK regions.Journal of Regional Science,2012,52(1):109-133.
[11]Doran J,Fingleton B.Employment resilience in Europe and the 2008 economic crisis:Insights from micro-level data.Regional Studies,2016,50(4):644-656.
[12]Reggiani A,De Graaff T,Nijkamp P.Resilience:An evolutionary approach to spatial economic systems.Networks and Spatial Economics,2002,2(2):211-229.
[13]Rose A,Krausmann E.An economic framework for the development of a resilience index for business recovery.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2013,5:73-83.
[14]Davoudi S,Shaw K,Haider L J,et al.Resilience:A bridging concept or a dead end?.Planning Theory&Practice,2012,13(2):299-333.
[15]Bristow G.Resilient regions:Re-‘place'ing regional competitiveness.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010:3(1):153-167.
[16]Modica M,Reggiani A.Spatial economic resilience:Overview and perspectives.Networks and Spatial Economics,2015,15(2):211-233.
[17]Holm J R,?stergaard C R.Regional employment growth,shocks and regional industrial resilience:A quantitative analysis of the Danish ICT sector.Regional Studies,2015,49(1):95-112.
[18]蔡建明,郭华,汪德根.国外弹性城市研究述评.地理科学进展,2012,31(10):1245-1255.[Cai Jianming,Guo Hua,Wang Degen.Review on the resilient city research overseas.Progress in Geography,2012,31(10):1245-1255.]
[19]彭翀,袁敏航,顾朝林,等.区域弹性的理论与实践研究进展.城市规划学刊,2015,(1):84-92.[Peng Chong,Yuan Minhang,Gu Chaolin,et al.Research progress on the theory and practice of regional resilience.Urban Planning Forum,2015,(1):84-92.]
[20]Christopherson S,Michie J,Tyler P.Regional resilience:Theoretical and empirical perspectives.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,3(1):3-10.
[21]Di Caro P.Recessions,recoveries and regional resilience:Evidence on Italy.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2015,8(2):273-291.
[22]Breathnach P,Van Egeraat C,Curran D.Regional economic resilience in Ireland:The roles of industrial structure and foreign inward investment.Regional Studies,Regional Science,2015,2(1):497-517.
[23]Tan J T,Zhang P Y,Lo K,et al.Conceptualizing and measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities:Case study of Northeast China.Chinese Geographical Science,2017,27(3):471-481.
[24]Brakman S,Garretsen H,van Marrewijk C.Regional resilience across Europe:On urbanisation and the initial impact of the Great Recession.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2015,8(2):225-240.
[25]Laubscher P.The business cycle resilience of the Western Cape economy:A regional analysis of the 2009 recession and subsequent recovery.Studies in Economics and Econometrics,2017,41(3):1-33.
[26]Dissart JC.Regional economic diversity and regional economic stability:Research results and agenda.International Regional Science Review,2003,26(4):423-46.
[27]Davies A,Tonts M.Economic diversity and regional socioeconomic performance:An empirical analysis of the Western Australian grain belt.Geographical Research,2010,48(3):223-34.
[28]Angulo AM,Mur J,Trívez FJ.Measuring resilience to economic shocks:An application to Spain.The Annals of Regional Science,2018,60(2):349-73.
[29]张平宇.东北区域发展报告2008.北京:科学出版社,2008.[Zhang Pingyu.Annual Report of Northeast China Development.Beijing:Science Press,2008.]
[30]鲍振东,李向平.辽宁工业经济史.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014.[Bao Zhendong,Li Xiangping.Industrial Economy History of Liaoning Province.Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press,2014.]
[31]常丽.辽宁产业结构与就业结构协同性实证研究.中国科技论坛,2010,(1):49-55.[Chang Li.Poaitive study on the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure development in Liaoning.Forum on Science and Technology in China,2010,(1):49-55.]
[32]姜健力.辽宁经济发展与发展方式的转变.沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版),2008,(1):7-12+105.[Jiang Jianli.On economic development and transformation of development ways in Liaoning province.Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Science Edition),2008,(1):7-12,105.]
[33]邢军伟.实施振兴战略后辽宁老工业基地产业结构调整升级研究.科技促进发展,2015,(4):530-536.[Xing Junwei.Research on industrial structure upgrade in Liaoning old industrial bases after the implementation of revitalization strategy.Science&Technology for Development,2015,(4):530-536.]
[34]樊杰,刘汉初,王亚飞,等.东北现象再解析和东北振兴预判研究:对影响国土空间开发保护格局变化稳定因素的初探.地理科学,2016,36(10):1445-1456.[Fan Jie,Liu Hanchu,Wang Yafei,et al.“The Northeast China Phenomenon”and prejudgment on economic revitalization in Northeast China:A primary research on stable factors to impact national spatial development and protection pattern.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(10):1445-1456.]
[35]陈琳琳,金凤君,洪辉.东北地区工业基地演化路径研究.地理科学,2016,36(9):1378-1387.[Chen Linlin,Jin Fengjun,Hong Hui.The evolution path of the industrial base in Northeast China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(9):1378-1387.]
[36]姜晓丽,张平宇,郭文炯.辽宁沿海经济带产业分工研究.地理研究,2014,33(1):96-106.[Jiang Xiaoli,Zhang Pingyu,Guo Wenjiong.The study on division of labor in Liaoning coastal economic belt.Geographical Research,2014,33(1):96-106.]
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