城市化系统与生态系统交互耦合时空特征及协调发展预警研究——以湖南省为例
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摘要
基于"系统演进特征分析-动态耦合规律验证-协调状态诊断及预警"框架,对湖南省2001年以来的城市化系统与生态系统交互耦合时空特征进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)湖南省城市化进程加速推进,综合发展指数由2001年的0.537逐年提升至2015年的0.785,达到中高水平,市州发展悬殊仅长沙市达到高水平。(2)生态系统健康指数呈U型走势,2015年达到0.764,处亚健康状态,系统压力较大是关键性限制因素。(3)城市化系统与生态系统耦合协调度先降后升,2015年提高到0.622,处基本协调的较低水平,各市州大多处于轻度失调-基本协调临界水平,分属生态建设滞后型、城市化滞后型和结构性污染型等3种类型。(4)从系统演进看,城市化系统与生态系统由轻度失调-逆向演替逐步转为轻度失调-正向演替、进一步转为基本协调-正向演替,预计2020年耦合协调度将提高到0.633,未来较长时期仍将处绿灯区,应采取适当的区域发展政策,推动城市化系统与生态系统内部要素调整磨合,向良性发展。
Spatial-temporal coupling characteristics of interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hunan since 2001 are analyzed empirically based on the framework of "analysis of system evolution characteristics-validation of dynamic coupling relationship-coordination status diagnosis and early warning". The results show that:(1) the comprehensive development index of urbanization in Hunan Province increased from 0.537 in 2001 to 0.785 in 2015, reaching a middle and high level, and Changsha is the only city which achieves high level in 14 cities;(2) the index of ecosystem health showed a trend of U, reaching 0.764 in 2015 and in sub-health state, and greater system pressure was the key limiting factor;(3) the degree of coordination between urbanization and eco-environment first declined and then increased to 0.622 in 2015, which was at a lower level of basic coordination, and most of the cities and towns were in the critical value of mild disorders to basic coordination, which belonged to three types: lagging behind ecological construction, lagging urbanization and structural pollution;(4) urbanization and eco-environment have changed from mild disorders-regressive succession to mild disorders-positive succession and further to basic coordination-positive succession from the overall perspective of system evolution, the coupling degree of urbanization and eco-environment will be increased to 0.633 in 2020; Hunan will be in the green area for a long time in the future, and appropriate regional development policies should be adopted to promote the healthy development of urbanization and eco-environment.
Spatial-temporal coupling characteristics of interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hunan since 2001 are analyzed empirically based on the framework of "analysis of system evolution characteristics-validation of dynamic coupling relationship-coordination status diagnosis and early warning". The results show that:(1) the comprehensive development index of urbanization in Hunan Province increased from 0.537 in 2001 to 0.785 in 2015, reaching a middle and high level, and Changsha is the only city which achieves high level in 14 cities;(2) the index of ecosystem health showed a trend of U, reaching 0.764 in 2015 and in sub-health state, and greater system pressure was the key limiting factor;(3) the degree of coordination between urbanization and eco-environment first declined and then increased to 0.622 in 2015, which was at a lower level of basic coordination, and most of the cities and towns were in the critical value of mild disorders to basic coordination, which belonged to three types: lagging behind ecological construction, lagging urbanization and structural pollution;(4) urbanization and eco-environment have changed from mild disorders-regressive succession to mild disorders-positive succession and further to basic coordination-positive succession from the overall perspective of system evolution, the coupling degree of urbanization and eco-environment will be increased to 0.633 in 2020; Hunan will be in the green area for a long time in the future, and appropriate regional development policies should be adopted to promote the healthy development of urbanization and eco-environment.
引文
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[19] 石惠春,刘伟,何剑,等.一种城市生态系统现状评价方法及其应用[J].生态学报,2012,32(17):5542-5549.SHI H C,LIU W,HE J,et al.An urban ecosystem assessment method and its application[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(17):5542-5549.
[20] 秦趣,代稳,陈志霞.我国城市生态系统健康评价综述[J].安全与环境工程,2014,21(4):96-100,106.QIN Q,DAI W,CHEN Z X.Review of researches on the evaluation of urban ecosystem health in China[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2014,21(4):96-100,106.
[21] VALERIE I.The penguin dictionary of physics[M].Beijing:Foreign Language Press,1996.
[22] 李志强,詹锋,周丽琴.基于BP网络算法的区域协调发展预测与预警研究[J].统计研究,2006(4):24-26.LI Z Q,ZHAN F,ZHOU L Q,Research on prediction and early warning of regional coordination development based on BP network algorithm[J].Statiscal Research,2006(4):24-26.
[23] BRETZ E A.Clean coal technologies:A status report[J].Electrical World,1992(2):37-42.
[2] HENDERSON V.The urbanization process and economic growth:the so-what question[J].Eco- nomic Growth,2003,8(1):47-71.
[3] GUNDERSON L H,HOLLING C S.Panarchy:Understanding transformations in human and natural systems [M].Washington DC:Island Press,2002.
[4] 黄金川,方创琳.城市化与生态环境交互耦合机制与规律性分析[J].地理研究,2003,22(2):211-220.HUANG J C,FANG C L.Analysis of coupling mechanism and rules between urbanization and eco-environment[J].Geographical Research,2003,22(2):211-220.
[5] 赵安周,李英俊,卫海燕,等.西安市城市化与城市生态环境耦合协调发展研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19 (6):152-156.ZHAO A Z,LI Y J,WEI H Y,et al.Study on coupling coordination development between urbanization and urban eco-environment of Xi’an City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(6):152-156.
[6] 王少剑,方创琳,王洋.京津冀地区城市化与生态环境交互耦合关系定量测度[J].生态学报,2015,35(7):1-14.WANG S J,FANG C L,WANG Y.Quantitative investigation of the interactive coupling relationship between urbanization and eco-environment[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(7) :2244-2254.
[7] WANG Y X.Empirical study of the coupling coordination relationship of urbanization and ecological environmentin Nanchang and Jiujiang urban belts[J].Journal of Interdisoiplinary Mathe-matics,2014,17 (5/6) :511-526.
[8] CHEN M X,HUANG Y B,TANG Z P.The provincial pattern of the relationship between urbaniza-tion and economic development in China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(1) :33-45.
[9] 陈晓红,万鲁河.城市化与生态环境耦合的脆弱性与协调性作用机制研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(12):1450-1457.CHEN X H,WAN L H.the interactive mechanisms for the coordination and vulnerability between regional urban and eco-environment[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(12):1450-1457.
[10] KIM D S,MIZUNO K,KOBAYASHI S.Analysis of urbanization characteristics causing farmland loss in a rapid growth area using GIS and RS [J].Paddy Water Environment,2003(1):189-199.
[11] SULTAN M,FISKE M,STEIN T,et al.Monitoring the urbanization of the Nile Delta,Egypt[J].Ambio,1999,28(7):627-631.
[12] 方创琳,杨玉梅.城市化与生态环境交互耦合系统的基本定律[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(1):1-8.FANG C L,YANG Y M.Basic laws of the interactive coupling system of urbanization and ecological environment[J].Arid Land Geogrephy,2006,29(1) :1-8.
[13] 刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析[J].地理学报,2005,60(2):237-247.LIU Y B,LI R D,SONG X F.Grey associative analysis of regional urbanization and eco- environment coupling in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(2):237-247.
[14] 王长建,张小雷,杜宏茹,等.城市化与生态环境的动态计量分析——以新疆乌鲁木齐市为例[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):609-619.WANG C J,ZHANG X L,DU H R,et al.Quantitative analysis of the dynamic relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Urumqi,Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(3):609-619.
[15] 孙平军.1994～2011年江苏省城市化与生态环境非协调性耦合关系的判别[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(8):1051-1056.SUN P J.Identification of non-coordination between urbanization and ecological environment in Jiangsu Province during 1994-2011[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(8):1051-1056.
[16] 乔标,方创琳.城市化与生态环境协调发展的动态耦合模型及其在干旱区的应用[J].生态学报,2005,25 (11):3003-3009.QIAO B,FANG C L.The dynamic coupling model of the harmonious development between urbanization and eco-environment and its application in arid area[J].Act Aecologica Sinica,2005,25(11):3003-3009.
[17] 李静芝,朱翔,李景保,等.洞庭湖区城镇化进程与水资源利用的关系[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(6):1677-1685.LI J Z,ZHU X,LI J B,et al.Relationships between urbanization and water resource utilization in Dongting Lake District of South-central China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2013,24(6):1677-1685.
[18] 刘众序,彭建,汪安,等.生态系统健康研究进展[[J].生态学报,2015(18):5920-5930.LIU Z X,PENG J,WANG A,et al.New research progress and trends in ecosystem health[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(18):5920-5930.
[19] 石惠春,刘伟,何剑,等.一种城市生态系统现状评价方法及其应用[J].生态学报,2012,32(17):5542-5549.SHI H C,LIU W,HE J,et al.An urban ecosystem assessment method and its application[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(17):5542-5549.
[20] 秦趣,代稳,陈志霞.我国城市生态系统健康评价综述[J].安全与环境工程,2014,21(4):96-100,106.QIN Q,DAI W,CHEN Z X.Review of researches on the evaluation of urban ecosystem health in China[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2014,21(4):96-100,106.
[21] VALERIE I.The penguin dictionary of physics[M].Beijing:Foreign Language Press,1996.
[22] 李志强,詹锋,周丽琴.基于BP网络算法的区域协调发展预测与预警研究[J].统计研究,2006(4):24-26.LI Z Q,ZHAN F,ZHOU L Q,Research on prediction and early warning of regional coordination development based on BP network algorithm[J].Statiscal Research,2006(4):24-26.
[23] BRETZ E A.Clean coal technologies:A status report[J].Electrical World,1992(2):37-42.
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