产业结构调整对港口发展影响研究——以唐山港为例
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摘要
随着产业结构调整的深入,港口发展逐渐从高速增长向高质量发展转变。为厘清产业结构调整与港口发展的内在关系,该文基于1996-2015年河北省三大产业增加值及唐山港港口吞吐量年度数据,采用灰色关联度与向量自回归模型进行实证分析,结果表明:第一产业对港口影响较小且保持平稳,第二产业对港口吞吐量的直接影响较大,第三产业对港口吞吐量的增加有一定影响,但影响程度低于第二产业;产业结构调整导致港口吞吐量增速渐缓。通过VAR模型分析得出,未来10年第二、三产业对港口发展的贡献度分别稳定在40%与50%左右。针对依赖港口吞吐量获得竞争优势已不可持续的现状,提出适应产业结构调整的港口发展建议。
With the advancement of industrial restructuring,port development is turning gradually from rapid growth to quality improvement.We have conducted empirical analysis using grey relevance and vector auto-regression models based on both added values of the three major industries and the annual throughput data of the Port of Tangshan during the period of 1996-2015 in order to clarify the internal relationship between industrial restructuring and port development.The result shows that the primary industry has the smallest and steady impacts on the port.The secondary industry generates greater direct influence on the port throughput.The tertiary industry′s impact is lower than that of the secondary industry in increasing the port throughput.Industrial restructuring leads to the slow growth of port throughput.An analysis was also made through a VAR model,showing that the contributions of the secondary and tertiary industries to port development for the next ten years remain stable at about 40% and 50%,respectively.This paper also gives suggestions for port development which are adaptable to industry restructuring concerning the reason of unsustainable competitive advantages by way of port throughputs.
With the advancement of industrial restructuring,port development is turning gradually from rapid growth to quality improvement.We have conducted empirical analysis using grey relevance and vector auto-regression models based on both added values of the three major industries and the annual throughput data of the Port of Tangshan during the period of 1996-2015 in order to clarify the internal relationship between industrial restructuring and port development.The result shows that the primary industry has the smallest and steady impacts on the port.The secondary industry generates greater direct influence on the port throughput.The tertiary industry′s impact is lower than that of the secondary industry in increasing the port throughput.Industrial restructuring leads to the slow growth of port throughput.An analysis was also made through a VAR model,showing that the contributions of the secondary and tertiary industries to port development for the next ten years remain stable at about 40% and 50%,respectively.This paper also gives suggestions for port development which are adaptable to industry restructuring concerning the reason of unsustainable competitive advantages by way of port throughputs.
引文
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[25] 祝火生.我国港口发展与国民经济增长关联性的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2011(17):132-135.
[26] 杨月锋,徐学荣.厦门进出口贸易与港口物流关系的实证研究——基于协整理论与误差修正模型[J].经济问题,2013(9):125-128.
[27] 孔庆峰,李秀娥.港口发展对腹地经济的带动效应——基于日照港的实证研究[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008(4):73-81.
[28] 王岳平.产业结构对交通运输业发展影响的定量分析[J].管理世界,2004(6):65-72.
[2] 王成金.中国港口分布格局的演化与发展机理[J].地理学报,2007,62(8):809-820.
[3] 程佳佳,王成金.珠江三角洲集装箱港口体系演化及动力机制[J].地理学报,2015,70(8):1256-1270.
[4] BOTTASSO A,CONTI M,FERRARI C,et al.Ports and regional development:A spatial analysis on a panel of European regions[J].Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice,2014,65(4):44-55.
[5] LONZA L,MAROLDA M C.Ports as drivers of urban and regional growth[J].Transportation Research Procedia,2016,14:2507-2516.
[6] JIN S P,SEO Y J.The impact of seaports on the regional economies in South Korea:Panel evidence from the augmented Solow model[J].Transportation Research Part E Logistics and Transportation Review,2016,85:107-119.
[7] 沈秦伟,韩增林,郭建科.港口物流与城市经济增长的关系研究——以大连为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2013,29(1):69-73.
[8] IMAI A,NISHIMURA E,PAPADIMITRIOU S,et al.The economic viability of container mega-ships[J].Transportation Research Part E Logistics and Transportation Review,2006,42(1):21-41.
[9] SAEED N,LARSEN O I.An application of cooperative game among container terminals of one port[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,203(2):393-403.
[10] 范洋,高田义,乔晗.基于博弈模型的港口群内竞争合作研究——以黄海地区为例[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(4):955-964.
[11] 余明珠,山峻.区域港口群中竞合关系的博弈研究[J].运筹与管理,2014(5):93-100.
[12] KOTOWSKA I.Policies applied by seaport authorities to create sustainable development in port cities[J].Transportation Research Procedia,2016,16:236-243.
[13] 钟铭,吴艳云,栾维新.港口物流与城市经济协同度模型[J].大连海事大学学报,2011,37(1):80-82.
[14] 郇恒飞,焦华富,韩会然,等.连云港市的港-城协调发展模式演化及影响要素[J].人文地理,2012,27(1):77-81.
[15] 徐士伟,许鑫.基于共生理论的天津港城协调发展研究[J].同济大学学报(社会科学版),2017,28(5):65-72.
[16] SCHIPPER C A,VREUGDENHIL H,JONGM P C D.A sustainability assessment of ports and port-city plans:Comparing ambitions with achievements[J].Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment,2017,57(C):84-111.
[17] 叶潇潇,赵一飞.基于聚类分析的长江三角洲港口群可持续发展水平评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(s1):17-24.
[18] 侯剑.基于系统动力学的港口经济可持续发展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,20(1):56-61.
[19] 田敏.河北省港口经济与优化产业结构互动发展模式[J].经营与管理,2008(9):35-37.
[20] 吴满财,黄慧微.基于产业集群的环渤海经济圈港口物流协同发展研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2013,35(8):75-78.
[21] 蔡权德,栾维新,黄杰,等.产业结构调整与我国沿海港口吞吐量的关系[J].中国港湾建设,2011(4):68-70.
[22] 罗永华.港口物流与区域产业结构优化——基于湛江市的实证[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2016,15(2):97-102.
[23] GUO Y X.Research on Strategic Transition and Industrial Structure Upgrading of Chinese Bonded Ports and Zones[M].US:IEEE Computer Society,2009.626-630.
[24] 梁毅华,陈文静.深圳港口发展及其影响因素——基于协整模型实证[J].工业技术经济,2011,30(8):14-20.
[25] 祝火生.我国港口发展与国民经济增长关联性的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2011(17):132-135.
[26] 杨月锋,徐学荣.厦门进出口贸易与港口物流关系的实证研究——基于协整理论与误差修正模型[J].经济问题,2013(9):125-128.
[27] 孔庆峰,李秀娥.港口发展对腹地经济的带动效应——基于日照港的实证研究[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008(4):73-81.
[28] 王岳平.产业结构对交通运输业发展影响的定量分析[J].管理世界,2004(6):65-72.
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