中国重化工业资源消耗的社会经济驱动力
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摘要
基于投入产出模型和中国投入产出表,从需求端分析中国重化工业资源消耗的隐含流在不同行业和不同最终需求中的分配情况,以及五大社会经济驱动力对中国重化工业资源消耗增长的贡献度.结果表明,2012年中国重化工业生产过程所消耗的3种资源隐含在建筑业和其他制造业的最终产品中的比例均超过75%,隐含在形成资本最终产品中的比例均超过55%.2002～2012年期间,产业结构对中国重化工业化石能源和石灰石消耗量增加的贡献度分别为+39%和+237%;资源强度对中国重化工业化石能源和石灰石消耗量减少的贡献度分别为-108%和-265%,对中国重化工业铁矿石消耗量增加的贡献度为+152%;人均最终需求水平对中国重化工业化石能源、铁矿石和石灰石消耗量增加的贡献度分别为+247%,+460%和+291%.
Based on input-output model and input-output table of China, we studied the distribution of embodied resource consumption of China's heavy chemical industry by sectors and final demand types, and the contribution of five socioeconomic drivers to resource consumption of China's heavy chemical industry. Results quantitatively confirmed that more than 75% of resource consumption of China's heavy chemical industry was embodied in the final products of construction industry and other manufacturing industries, more than 55% was embodied in the final products that formed capital in 2012. Resource intensity contributed to the decrease of fossil energy and limestone consumption of China's heavy chemical industry by-108% and-265% from 2002 to 2012, but drove the increase of iron ore consumption by +152%. Production structure contributed to the increase of fossil energy and limestone consumption of China's heavy chemical industry by +39% and +237%. Final demand level per capita contributed to the increase of all the three kinds of resource's consumption of China's heavy chemical industry by +247%, +460% and +291%.
Based on input-output model and input-output table of China, we studied the distribution of embodied resource consumption of China's heavy chemical industry by sectors and final demand types, and the contribution of five socioeconomic drivers to resource consumption of China's heavy chemical industry. Results quantitatively confirmed that more than 75% of resource consumption of China's heavy chemical industry was embodied in the final products of construction industry and other manufacturing industries, more than 55% was embodied in the final products that formed capital in 2012. Resource intensity contributed to the decrease of fossil energy and limestone consumption of China's heavy chemical industry by-108% and-265% from 2002 to 2012, but drove the increase of iron ore consumption by +152%. Production structure contributed to the increase of fossil energy and limestone consumption of China's heavy chemical industry by +39% and +237%. Final demand level per capita contributed to the increase of all the three kinds of resource's consumption of China's heavy chemical industry by +247%, +460% and +291%.
引文
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[19]隗斌贤,顾继红,黄敏.基于IO-SDA模型的浙江省外贸隐含碳影响因素分析[J].统计研究,2012,29(1):101-105.Kui B X,Gu J H,Huang M.Analysis of influential factors of embodied carbon in Zhejiang’s foreign trade based on IO-SDA model[J].Statistical Research,2012,29(1):101-105.
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[24]Liang S,Wang H X,Qu S,et al.Socioeconomic drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2016,50(14):7535-7545.
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[26]许宪春.2002年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2006:136-239.Xu X C.2002 input-output table of China[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2006:136-239.
[27]彭志龙.2007年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009:138-241.Peng Z L.2007 input-output table of China[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2009:138-241.
[28]程子林.2012年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015:132-271.Cheng Z L.2012 input-output table of China[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015:132-271.
[29]Liang S,Feng T T,Qu S,et al.Developing the Chinese environmentally extended input-output(CEEIO)database[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2016,21(4):953-965.
[30]夏明,张红霞.投入产出分析:理论、方法与数据[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013:223.Xia M,Zhang H X.Input-output analysis:theories,methods and applications[M].Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2013:223.
[31]文兼武.中国能源统计年鉴2014[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015:64-329.Wen J W.China energy statistical yearbook 2014[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015:64-329.
[32]中国钢铁工业年鉴编辑委员会.中国钢铁工业年鉴2003[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2003:1-553.The Editorial Board of China Steel Yearbook.China steel yearbook2003[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,2003:1-553.
[33]中国钢铁工业年鉴编辑委员会.中国钢铁工业年鉴2008[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2008:125-134.The Editorial Board of China Steel Yearbook.China steel yearbook2008[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,2008:125-134.
[34]中国钢铁工业年鉴编辑委员会.中国钢铁工业年鉴2013[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2013:309-324.The Editorial Board of China Steel Yearbook.China steel yearbook2013[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,2013:309-324.
[35]陈颂今.中国矿业年鉴2003[M].北京:地震出版社,2004:462-471.Chen S J.China Mining Yearbook 2003[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2004:462-471.
[36]陈颂今.中国矿业年鉴2008[M].北京:地震出版社,2009:418-429.Chen S J.China Mining Yearbook 2008[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2009:418-429.
[37]陈颂今.中国矿业年鉴2013[M].北京:地震出版社,2014:526-539.Chen S J.China Mining Yearbook 2013[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2014:526-539.
[38]马丽,刘立涛.基于发达国家比较的中国能源消费峰值预测[J].地理科学,2016,36(7):980-988.Ma L,Liu L T.Peak forecast of Chinese energy consumption based on developed countries’trends[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(7):980-988.
[39]Alcántara V,Padilla E,Piaggio M.Nitrogen oxide emissions and productive structure in Spain:An input-output perspective[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,141:420-428.
[40]袁博,王国平,李钟山,等.我国进口铁矿石定价权缺失的原因和对策建议[J].中国矿业,2017,26(10):97-100.Yuan B,Wang G P,Li Z S,et al.Study on the reasons and countermeasures of China’s lacking of imported iron ore pricing power[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(10):97-100.
[2]徐明,张天柱.中国经济系统的物质投入分析[J].中国环境科学,2005,25(3):324-328.Xu M,Zhang T Z.Material input analysis of China economic system[J].China Environmental Science,2005,25(3):324-328.
[3]段宁,李艳萍,孙启宏,等.中国经济系统物质流趋势成因分析[J].中国环境科学,2008,28(1):68-72.Duan N,Li Y P,Sun Q H,et al.An analysis for trends of material flow in China’s economy system and for reasons causing the trends[J].China Environmental Science,2008,28(1):68-72.
[4]Wang H M,Hashimoto S,Moriguchi Y,et al.Resource use in growing China-past trends,influence factors,and future demand[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2012,16(4):481-492.
[5]Yu Y D,Chen D J,Zhu B,et al.Eco-efficiency trends in China,1978~2010:decoupling environmental pressure from economic growth[J].Ecological Indicators,2013,24:177-184.
[6]王旭芳.我国能源消费的投入产出分析[D].北京:中国人民大学,2008.Wang X F.Input-output analysis of China’s energy consumption[D].Beijing:Renmin University of China,2008.
[7]夏炎,杨翠红,陈锡康.基于可比价投入产出表分解我国能源强度影响因素[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(10):21-27.Xia Y,Yang C H,Chen X K.Analysis on determining factors of energy intensity in China based on comparable price input-output table[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice,2009,29(10):21-27.
[8]罗思平,王灿,陈吉宁.中国国际贸易中隐含能的分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,50(3):477-480.Luo S P,Wang C,Chen J N.Analysis of embodied energy in China’s international trade[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2010,50(3):477-480.
[9]陈磊,徐琳瑜.基于行业关联研究的广东省能源消费分析[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(10):3972-3980.Chen L,Xu L Y.Energy consumption of Guangdong based on the industry linkage analysis[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(10):3972-3980.
[10]黄宝荣,王毅,张慧智,等.北京市分行业能源消耗及国内外贸易隐含能研究[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(2):377-384.Huang B R,Wang Y,Zhang H Z,et al.Energy intensity in different sectors of the economy and energy embodied in trade of Beijing based on an input-output model[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(2):377-384.
[11]许宪春,齐舒畅,杨翠红,等.国民经济各部门水资源消耗及用水系数的投入产出分析--2002年投入产出表系列分析报告之五[J].统计研究,2007,24(3):20-25.Xu X C,Qi S C,Yang C H,et al.Input-output analysis of water resources consumption and water input coefficient in national economic sectors:the fifth of researching report series on input-output tables of 2002[J].Statistical Research,2007,24(3):20-25.
[12]赵旭,杨志峰,陈彬.基于投入产出分析技术的中国虚拟水贸易及消费研究[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(2):286-294.Zhao X,Yang Z F,Chen B.Study on Chinese virtual water trade and consumption in an input-output framework[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(2):286-294.
[13]Shao L,Guan D B,Wu Z,et al.Multi-scale input-output analysis of consumption-based water resources:method and application[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,164:338-346.
[14]Zhang C,Anadon L D.Life cycle water use of energy production and its environmental impacts in China[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2013,47(24):14459-14467.
[15]张霄阳,陈定江,朱兵,等.基于MRIO对铁矿石开采生态补偿新机制的探讨[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(11):3449-3455.Zhang X Y,Chen D J,Zhu B,et al.A new eco-compensation mechanism for iron ore extraction based on multi-region input-output analysis[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(11):3449-3455.
[16]Liang S,Liu Z,Crawford-Brown D,et al.Decoupling analysis and socioeconomic drivers of environmental pressure in China[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2014,48(2):1103-1113.
[17]Wang H M,Tian X,Tanikawa H,et al.Exploring China’s materialization process with economic transition:analysis of raw material consumption and its socioeconomic drivers[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2014,48(9):5025-5032.
[18]Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[19]隗斌贤,顾继红,黄敏.基于IO-SDA模型的浙江省外贸隐含碳影响因素分析[J].统计研究,2012,29(1):101-105.Kui B X,Gu J H,Huang M.Analysis of influential factors of embodied carbon in Zhejiang’s foreign trade based on IO-SDA model[J].Statistical Research,2012,29(1):101-105.
[20]陈锡康,杨翠红.投入产出技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:25.Chen X K,Yang C H.Input-output technique[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011:25.
[21]Leontief W W.Input-output economics[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1986.
[22]李景华.SDA模型的加权平均分解法及在中国第三产业经济发展分析中的应用[J].系统工程,2004,22(9):69-73.Li J H.A weighted average decomposition method of SDA model and its application in Chinese tertiary industry development[J].Systems Engineering,2004,22(9):69-73.
[23]Dietzenbacher E,Los B.Structural decomposition techniques:sense and sensitivity[J].Economic Systems Research,1998,10(4):307-324.
[24]Liang S,Wang H X,Qu S,et al.Socioeconomic drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2016,50(14):7535-7545.
[25]Yamakawa A,Peters G P.Structural decomposition analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in Norway 1990~2002[J].Economic Systems Research,2011,23(3):303-318.
[26]许宪春.2002年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2006:136-239.Xu X C.2002 input-output table of China[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2006:136-239.
[27]彭志龙.2007年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009:138-241.Peng Z L.2007 input-output table of China[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2009:138-241.
[28]程子林.2012年中国投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015:132-271.Cheng Z L.2012 input-output table of China[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015:132-271.
[29]Liang S,Feng T T,Qu S,et al.Developing the Chinese environmentally extended input-output(CEEIO)database[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2016,21(4):953-965.
[30]夏明,张红霞.投入产出分析:理论、方法与数据[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2013:223.Xia M,Zhang H X.Input-output analysis:theories,methods and applications[M].Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2013:223.
[31]文兼武.中国能源统计年鉴2014[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015:64-329.Wen J W.China energy statistical yearbook 2014[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015:64-329.
[32]中国钢铁工业年鉴编辑委员会.中国钢铁工业年鉴2003[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2003:1-553.The Editorial Board of China Steel Yearbook.China steel yearbook2003[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,2003:1-553.
[33]中国钢铁工业年鉴编辑委员会.中国钢铁工业年鉴2008[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2008:125-134.The Editorial Board of China Steel Yearbook.China steel yearbook2008[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,2008:125-134.
[34]中国钢铁工业年鉴编辑委员会.中国钢铁工业年鉴2013[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2013:309-324.The Editorial Board of China Steel Yearbook.China steel yearbook2013[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,2013:309-324.
[35]陈颂今.中国矿业年鉴2003[M].北京:地震出版社,2004:462-471.Chen S J.China Mining Yearbook 2003[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2004:462-471.
[36]陈颂今.中国矿业年鉴2008[M].北京:地震出版社,2009:418-429.Chen S J.China Mining Yearbook 2008[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2009:418-429.
[37]陈颂今.中国矿业年鉴2013[M].北京:地震出版社,2014:526-539.Chen S J.China Mining Yearbook 2013[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2014:526-539.
[38]马丽,刘立涛.基于发达国家比较的中国能源消费峰值预测[J].地理科学,2016,36(7):980-988.Ma L,Liu L T.Peak forecast of Chinese energy consumption based on developed countries’trends[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(7):980-988.
[39]Alcántara V,Padilla E,Piaggio M.Nitrogen oxide emissions and productive structure in Spain:An input-output perspective[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,141:420-428.
[40]袁博,王国平,李钟山,等.我国进口铁矿石定价权缺失的原因和对策建议[J].中国矿业,2017,26(10):97-100.Yuan B,Wang G P,Li Z S,et al.Study on the reasons and countermeasures of China’s lacking of imported iron ore pricing power[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(10):97-100.
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