基于Arps递减的上市储量评估新方法及应用
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摘要
SEC上市储量动态评估多采用递减法,但递减率的准确选取比较困难,其对评估结果的影响不容忽视。文中基于Arps递减理论,结合海上油田定液量开发的特点,推导出了适用于海上油田上市储量评估的水驱曲线公式。公式定量化表征了定液量生产阶段累计产油量与累计产液量的变化规律,仅包含剩余可采储量和液油比2个未知参数,求解简单且受数据噪声干扰较小。通过对机理模型动态数据的评估,区分出各类评估方法评估结果的差异:静态法(数模法)评估结果最乐观,其次为蒂麦尔曼水驱曲线法,而指数递减法与新型水驱曲线法评估结果最保守。矿场应用表明,新型水驱曲线法能够提升数据样本质量,其评估结果更加准确可靠。由于新方法不涉及复杂原理,操作简单便捷,具有推广意义。
Data decline analysis is an efficient method used in listed reserves evaluation under SEC standards, but how to choose the right decline rate remains controversial, which may cause confusion or errors in the final evaluation result. Based on Arps decline theory, a new water drive curve formula is derived. The new formula quantitatively characterizes the changing rule between accumulated oil production and accumulated liquid production. In this formula, only two unknown coefficients need to be solved, and the solving process is less influenced by data noise. Through listed reserves evaluation of mechanism model,conclusions could be achieved after comparison: statistical data analysis(numerical simulation) may get the most positive results,while Timmerman water drive curve analysis ranks the second, and the Arps decline analysis as well as the new water drive curve analysis could give a pessimistic but more creditable results. Field application shows that the new method proposed in this article could not only avoid the data noise and give more accurate and reliable result, but also operate simply, which means the significance of popularization.
Data decline analysis is an efficient method used in listed reserves evaluation under SEC standards, but how to choose the right decline rate remains controversial, which may cause confusion or errors in the final evaluation result. Based on Arps decline theory, a new water drive curve formula is derived. The new formula quantitatively characterizes the changing rule between accumulated oil production and accumulated liquid production. In this formula, only two unknown coefficients need to be solved, and the solving process is less influenced by data noise. Through listed reserves evaluation of mechanism model,conclusions could be achieved after comparison: statistical data analysis(numerical simulation) may get the most positive results,while Timmerman water drive curve analysis ranks the second, and the Arps decline analysis as well as the new water drive curve analysis could give a pessimistic but more creditable results. Field application shows that the new method proposed in this article could not only avoid the data noise and give more accurate and reliable result, but also operate simply, which means the significance of popularization.
引文
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[18]许家峰,张金庆,安桂荣,等.广适水驱曲线求解新方法及应用[J].断块油气田,2017,24(1):43-45,55.
[2]胡允栋,萧德铭,王永祥.按SEC标准进行油气证实储量评估的基本原则[J].石油学报,2004,25(2):19-24.
[3]陈元千,赵天森.预测油气田可采储量和剩余可采储量的新方法[J].中国海上油气,2004,16(4):254-258.
[4]刘志霞,刘桂玲,张素君.储量评估软件(OGRE)的开发与应用[J].断块油气田,2005,12(4):34-36.
[5]徐永梅.SEC储量评估与中国储量评价的区别[J].企业科技与发展,2009,9(10):179-181.
[6]毕海滨,李建忠,张君峰,等.SEC准则证实储量评估中可靠技术应用[J].石油学报,2013,34(6):1212-1217.
[7]孟海燕,王柏力,王霞,等.SEC准则油气储量评估递减曲线法研究及影响因素探讨[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2011,30(5):87-91.
[8]孟海燕,赵启阳,冯乔,等.低油价下证实已开发储量评估的影响因素及对策[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2017,36(6):96-100.
[9]贾承造.美国SEC油气储量评估方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004:81-137.
[10]邓攀.适合中国陆相盆地的SEC油气储量评估方法(容积法)探讨[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2006.
[11]张玲,魏萍,肖席珍.SEC储量评估特点及影响因素[J].石油与天然气地质,2011,32(2):293-301.
[12]冮明立.上市储量分类及评估方法在大庆油田的应用[D].大庆:大庆石油学院,2009.
[13]翟中喜,魏萍.SEC上市储量评估技术要点与对策研究[J].石油天然气学报,2011,33(5):156-160.
[14]刘宗宾,刘英宪,张鑫,等.水驱曲线法在SEC上市储量评估中的应用分析[J].中国海上油气,2013,25(3):35-38.
[15]陈元千.对Timmerman经验公式的推导及对比[J].试采技术,1995,7(1):23-28.
[16]陈元千,李从瑞.预测水驱油田开发指标的联解法[J].中国海上油气,1997,11(5):337-343.
[17]雷源,陈晓明,常会江,等.基于Dr指数的动态储量计算新方法[J].断块油气田,2018,25(5):608-611.
[18]许家峰,张金庆,安桂荣,等.广适水驱曲线求解新方法及应用[J].断块油气田,2017,24(1):43-45,55.
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