高铁开通与业绩预告准确性
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摘要
以上市公司办公所在地是否经历高铁开通为外生冲击,使用A股公司2003～2017年的业绩预告数据为基础,采用双重差分法检验了高铁开通对业绩预告准确性的影响。结果表明,相比于高铁开通前以及未开通高铁的样本,高铁开通后样本的业绩预告准确性显著提高。而且,高铁开通对业绩预告准确性的影响在监管的地理临近性比较低的样本中更加明显。进一步的分析显示,高铁开通对业绩预告准确性的影响在只开通非城际高铁的样本中更加显著;信息精确度在高铁开通与业绩预告准确性的关系中发挥了部分中介效应。最后,从信息披露质量的视角提供了交通基础设施与资本市场关系的直接证据,丰富了有关治理环境和地理临近性的研究。
Based on management earnings forecasts issued by A-share companies during 2003-2017,we examined the association between the entry of high-speed railway( HSR) and the accuracy of management earnings forecast by applying the difference-indifferences( DID) approach with the entry of HSR as an exogenous shock. The results indicate that,compared to observations before the initial operation of HSR and those without HSR,the accuracy of management earnings forecasts issued after the entry of HSR are higher. What' s more,the relationship between the entry of HSR and the accuracy of management earnings forecast are most pronounced for firms with lower geographic proximity of regulations. Further analysis shows that the relationship is only significant for firms located at cities with the entry of national HSR. Path analysis shows that information precision partly moderate the relationship. We provide direct evidence on the association between constructions of transport infrastructure and capital market from the perspective of information disclosure,and contribute to the literature on governance environment and geographic proximity.
Based on management earnings forecasts issued by A-share companies during 2003-2017,we examined the association between the entry of high-speed railway( HSR) and the accuracy of management earnings forecast by applying the difference-indifferences( DID) approach with the entry of HSR as an exogenous shock. The results indicate that,compared to observations before the initial operation of HSR and those without HSR,the accuracy of management earnings forecasts issued after the entry of HSR are higher. What' s more,the relationship between the entry of HSR and the accuracy of management earnings forecast are most pronounced for firms with lower geographic proximity of regulations. Further analysis shows that the relationship is only significant for firms located at cities with the entry of national HSR. Path analysis shows that information precision partly moderate the relationship. We provide direct evidence on the association between constructions of transport infrastructure and capital market from the perspective of information disclosure,and contribute to the literature on governance environment and geographic proximity.
引文
[1]操巍,谭怡,邓伟.管理者过度自信对自愿性盈利预测披露质量的影响[J].财经问题研究,2017(1):55-61.
[2]陈胜蓝,李占婷.经济政策不确定性与分析师盈余预测修正[J].世界经济,2017,40(7):169-192.
[3]陈胜蓝,马慧.卖空压力与公司并购---来自卖空管制放松的准自然实验证据[J].管理世界,2017(7):142-156.
[4]董南雁,梁巧妮,林青.管理层业绩预告策略与隐含资本成本[J].南开管理评论,2017,20(2):45-57.
[5]杜兴强,彭妙薇.高铁开通会促进企业高级人才的流动吗?[J].经济管理,2017,39(12):89-107.
[6]高敬忠,周晓苏.管理层持股能减轻自愿性披露中的代理冲突吗?---以我国A股上市公司业绩预告数据为例[J].财经研究,2013(11):123-133.
[7]黄晓蓓,李晓博.产品市场竞争、分析师跟进与自愿性披露[J].财经问题研究,2016(11):90-96.
[8]李涵,唐丽淼.交通基础设施投资、空间溢出效应与企业库存[J].管理世界,2015(4):126-136.
[9]李欣泽,纪小乐,周灵灵.高铁能改善企业资源配置吗?---来自中国工业企业数据库和高铁地理数据的微观证据[J].经济评论,2017(6):3-21.
[10]刘宝华,罗宏,周微.股权激励行权限制与盈余管理优序选择[J].管理世界,2016(11):141-155.
[11]龙玉,赵海龙,张新德,等.时空压缩下的风险投资---高铁通车与风险投资区域变化[J].经济研究,2017(4):195-208.
[12]宋云玲,罗玫.中小板公司的业绩预告质量问题[J].会计研究,2017(6):24-30.
[13]宋云玲,吕佳宁.中国股市的业绩预告:制度、执行和经济后果[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2018.
[14]张娆,薛翰玉,赵健宏.管理层自利、外部监督与盈利预测偏差[J].会计研究,2017(1):32-38.
[15]张馨艺,张海燕,夏冬林.高管持股、择时披露与市场反应[J].会计研究,2012(6):54-60.
[16]赵静,黄敬昌,刘峰.高铁开通与股价崩盘风险[J].管理世界,2018(1):157-168.
[17]郑建明,黄晓蓓,张新民.管理层业绩预告违规与分析师监管[J].会计研究,2015(3):50-56.
[18]BAGINSKI S P,HASSELL J M,KIMBROUGH M D.The effect of legal environment on voluntary disclosure:evidence from management earnings forecasts issued in U.S.and Canadian markets[J].The Accounting Review,2002,77(1):25-50.
[19]BAGINSKI S P,HASSELL J M,KIMBROUGH M D.The effect of legal environment on voluntary disclosure:evidence from management earnings forecasts issued in U.S.and Canadian markets[J].The Accounting Review,2002,77(1):25-50.
[20]BEYER A,COHEN D A,LYS T Z.The financial reporting environment:review of the recent literature[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,2010,50(2-3):296-343.
[21]CALL A C,CAMPBELL J L,DAN S D.Employee quality and financial reporting outcomes[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,2017,64(1):123-149.
[22]CHOI J H,KIM J B,QIU A A.Geographic proximity between auditor and client:how does it impact audit quality?[J].Auditing:a Journal of Practice&Theory,2012,31(2):43-72.
[23]DECHOW P M,SLOAN R G,SWEENEY A P.Detecting earnings management[J].The Accounting Review,1995,70(2):193-225.
[24]GHOUL S E,GUEDHAMI O,NI Y.Does information asymmetry matter to equity pricing?evidence from firms’geographic location[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2013,30(1):140-181.
[25]HILARY G,HSU C.Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,2011,51(3):300-313.
[26]HIRST D E,KOONCE L,VENKATARAMAN S.Management earnings forecasts:a review and framework[J].Accounting Horizon,2008,22(3):315-338.
[27]HRIBAR P,YANG H.CEO overconfidence and management forecasting[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2016,33(1):204-227.
[28]HUANG X,Li X,Tse S,et al.The effects of a mixed approach toward management earnings forecasts:evidence from China[J].Journal of Business Finance&Accounting,2018,45(3-4):319-351.
[29]ITTNER C D,MICHELS J.Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts[J].Review of Accounting Studies,2017,22:1005-1047.
[30]IVKOVIC Z,WEISBENNER S.Local does as local is:information content of the geography of individual investors’common stock investments[J].Journal of Finance,2005,60(1):267-306.
[31]JOHN K,KNYAZEVA A,KNYAZEVA D.Does geography matter?firm location and corporate payout policy[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2011,101(3):533-551.
[32]KASZNIK R.On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management[J].Journal of Accounting Research,1999,37(1):57-81.
[33]KEDIA S,RAJGOPAL S.Do the SEC’s enforcement preferences affect corporate misconduct?[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,2011,51(3):259-278.
[34]LI Y,ZHANG L.Short selling pressure,stock price behavior,and management forecast precision:evidence from a natural experiment[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2015,53(1):79-117.
[35]MALLOY C J.The geography of equity analysis[J].Journal of Finance,2005,60(2):719-755.
[36]ROGERS J L.Disclosure quality and management trading incentives[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2008,46(5):1265-1296.
[37]ROYCHOWDHURY S.Earnings management through real activities manipulation[J].Journal of Accounting&E-conomics,2006,42(3):335-370.
[38]ZUO L.The informational feedback effect of stock prices on management forecasts[J].Journal of Accounting&E-conomics,2016,61(2-3):391-413.
(1)赵静等(2018)通过股价崩盘风险间接检验了地理临近性对信息披露质量的影响。
(1)数据来自交通运输部2018年3月30日发布的《2017交通运输行业发展统计公报》。
[2]陈胜蓝,李占婷.经济政策不确定性与分析师盈余预测修正[J].世界经济,2017,40(7):169-192.
[3]陈胜蓝,马慧.卖空压力与公司并购---来自卖空管制放松的准自然实验证据[J].管理世界,2017(7):142-156.
[4]董南雁,梁巧妮,林青.管理层业绩预告策略与隐含资本成本[J].南开管理评论,2017,20(2):45-57.
[5]杜兴强,彭妙薇.高铁开通会促进企业高级人才的流动吗?[J].经济管理,2017,39(12):89-107.
[6]高敬忠,周晓苏.管理层持股能减轻自愿性披露中的代理冲突吗?---以我国A股上市公司业绩预告数据为例[J].财经研究,2013(11):123-133.
[7]黄晓蓓,李晓博.产品市场竞争、分析师跟进与自愿性披露[J].财经问题研究,2016(11):90-96.
[8]李涵,唐丽淼.交通基础设施投资、空间溢出效应与企业库存[J].管理世界,2015(4):126-136.
[9]李欣泽,纪小乐,周灵灵.高铁能改善企业资源配置吗?---来自中国工业企业数据库和高铁地理数据的微观证据[J].经济评论,2017(6):3-21.
[10]刘宝华,罗宏,周微.股权激励行权限制与盈余管理优序选择[J].管理世界,2016(11):141-155.
[11]龙玉,赵海龙,张新德,等.时空压缩下的风险投资---高铁通车与风险投资区域变化[J].经济研究,2017(4):195-208.
[12]宋云玲,罗玫.中小板公司的业绩预告质量问题[J].会计研究,2017(6):24-30.
[13]宋云玲,吕佳宁.中国股市的业绩预告:制度、执行和经济后果[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2018.
[14]张娆,薛翰玉,赵健宏.管理层自利、外部监督与盈利预测偏差[J].会计研究,2017(1):32-38.
[15]张馨艺,张海燕,夏冬林.高管持股、择时披露与市场反应[J].会计研究,2012(6):54-60.
[16]赵静,黄敬昌,刘峰.高铁开通与股价崩盘风险[J].管理世界,2018(1):157-168.
[17]郑建明,黄晓蓓,张新民.管理层业绩预告违规与分析师监管[J].会计研究,2015(3):50-56.
[18]BAGINSKI S P,HASSELL J M,KIMBROUGH M D.The effect of legal environment on voluntary disclosure:evidence from management earnings forecasts issued in U.S.and Canadian markets[J].The Accounting Review,2002,77(1):25-50.
[19]BAGINSKI S P,HASSELL J M,KIMBROUGH M D.The effect of legal environment on voluntary disclosure:evidence from management earnings forecasts issued in U.S.and Canadian markets[J].The Accounting Review,2002,77(1):25-50.
[20]BEYER A,COHEN D A,LYS T Z.The financial reporting environment:review of the recent literature[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,2010,50(2-3):296-343.
[21]CALL A C,CAMPBELL J L,DAN S D.Employee quality and financial reporting outcomes[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,2017,64(1):123-149.
[22]CHOI J H,KIM J B,QIU A A.Geographic proximity between auditor and client:how does it impact audit quality?[J].Auditing:a Journal of Practice&Theory,2012,31(2):43-72.
[23]DECHOW P M,SLOAN R G,SWEENEY A P.Detecting earnings management[J].The Accounting Review,1995,70(2):193-225.
[24]GHOUL S E,GUEDHAMI O,NI Y.Does information asymmetry matter to equity pricing?evidence from firms’geographic location[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2013,30(1):140-181.
[25]HILARY G,HSU C.Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,2011,51(3):300-313.
[26]HIRST D E,KOONCE L,VENKATARAMAN S.Management earnings forecasts:a review and framework[J].Accounting Horizon,2008,22(3):315-338.
[27]HRIBAR P,YANG H.CEO overconfidence and management forecasting[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2016,33(1):204-227.
[28]HUANG X,Li X,Tse S,et al.The effects of a mixed approach toward management earnings forecasts:evidence from China[J].Journal of Business Finance&Accounting,2018,45(3-4):319-351.
[29]ITTNER C D,MICHELS J.Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts[J].Review of Accounting Studies,2017,22:1005-1047.
[30]IVKOVIC Z,WEISBENNER S.Local does as local is:information content of the geography of individual investors’common stock investments[J].Journal of Finance,2005,60(1):267-306.
[31]JOHN K,KNYAZEVA A,KNYAZEVA D.Does geography matter?firm location and corporate payout policy[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2011,101(3):533-551.
[32]KASZNIK R.On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management[J].Journal of Accounting Research,1999,37(1):57-81.
[33]KEDIA S,RAJGOPAL S.Do the SEC’s enforcement preferences affect corporate misconduct?[J].Journal of Accounting&Economics,2011,51(3):259-278.
[34]LI Y,ZHANG L.Short selling pressure,stock price behavior,and management forecast precision:evidence from a natural experiment[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2015,53(1):79-117.
[35]MALLOY C J.The geography of equity analysis[J].Journal of Finance,2005,60(2):719-755.
[36]ROGERS J L.Disclosure quality and management trading incentives[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2008,46(5):1265-1296.
[37]ROYCHOWDHURY S.Earnings management through real activities manipulation[J].Journal of Accounting&E-conomics,2006,42(3):335-370.
[38]ZUO L.The informational feedback effect of stock prices on management forecasts[J].Journal of Accounting&E-conomics,2016,61(2-3):391-413.
(1)赵静等(2018)通过股价崩盘风险间接检验了地理临近性对信息披露质量的影响。
(1)数据来自交通运输部2018年3月30日发布的《2017交通运输行业发展统计公报》。
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