基于土地生态位和多主体的城市居住空间演化情景模型研究
|
摘要
对城市化现象进行研究,分析城市扩张演化的规律并仿真建模具有指导土地利用规划和城市规划,保证城市土地资源的有效配置和集约利用的重要意义。诸多模型中,多主体模型(Multi Agent System,以下简称MAS)以充分体现“自下而上,由微观主体行为到宏观规律涌现”这一复杂系统演变进化的实质而见长。论文以近十年来在中国城市扩张的进程中占有相当比重的城市住宅用地的增长现象为研究对象,以微观经济学的效用理论和土地生态位理论为基础,通过总结城市居住空间演化过程中各微观主体的行为特征和相互作用,使用GIS技术和情景分析方法构建了城市居住空间演变的多主体情景规划模型,并以武汉市的洪山和武昌两区为实验区对模型的有效性进行了验证。围绕模型的建立和验证,本文做了以下工作。
1模型的理论基础与实现机制研究
(1)城市扩张的驱动力分析是所有城市建模研究的基础。城市中各种功能活动对生存空间(土地资源)的争夺与自然界中不同生物种群对领地的争夺极其相似,因此相关研究引入生物学中用以解释生物群落之间相互竞争的生态位理论来分析城市土地利用系统中土地利用结构的演变规律,认为不同土地利用类型之间的生态位势差是城市土地利用结构演变的动力,而且这种生态位势差决定于不同土地利用类型的边际效益的比较。本文在以上研究基础上进行扩展,充分考虑城市土地利用的空间特征和微观区位差异,进一步分析土地利用生态位势差的形成原因,针对本文的研究对象给出基于微观区位的城市住宅用地的生态位宽度扩展理论模型,作为建立城市居住空间演化多主体情景模型的理论基础。
(2)本文认为,从土地利用的“主客体”关系来看,土地利用的生态位势差归根结底取决于土地利用主体对于土地利用效益的认知方式和程度。对于特定的土地利用客体,不同的土地利用主体会有不同的土地利用方式,城市的扩张也会呈现出不同的情景。由于城市系统的复杂性和人类社会及经济活动的不确定性,建立城市空间扩张模型的目的不在于要实现也不可能实现对于真实情景的100%地复制,而是要抽取城市空间扩张演化的关键因素和一般性规律,分析这些关键因素影响城市居住空间演化的规律。本文分析了三类直接或者间接土地利用主体--城市居民主体、房产开发商和城市政府(微观智能体)的行为对城市居住空间扩张过程的影响,从影响城市居住空间的扩张量和扩张形态两方面分别归纳出主要的情景因素,调整这些情景因素的参数值可以构建城市居住空间发展的不同宏观背景。
(3)本文将城市居住空间的扩展过程视为住宅用地资源生态位主体和需求生态位主体两者相互作用的过程。资源生态位主体提供微观区域发展为住宅用地的各种资源条件,由于自然以及社会资源的空间分异特征,城市内部形成住宅用地资源生态位势场。住宅用地资源生态位势场是形成住宅区位差异的充要条件,也是城市居民主体进行理想居住区位选择的依据。使用微观经济学的理论给出城市居民主体、房产开发商和城市政府三类需求生态位主体的目标函数并纳入到模型中,实现对于现实生活中这三类微观主体行为特征的模拟。特别地,论文从消费者效用最大化的概念出发,以城市家庭为单位对其效用组成进行分析,以GIS为技术基础,结合城市自然及社会经济资源的空间分异特征,着重考虑了对于通勤时间成本的实现,对经典的阿朗索模型进行了修正,提出了城市居民主体理想居住区位选择行为的效用模型。
(4)建立了模型的实验环境。模型中重点考虑了对于城市住宅用地资源生态位势场各生态位因子的计算记录,以及城市居民主体对于理想居住区位的选择行为子模块的的实现,与以往的研究文献不同,该模块添加了对于通勤时间成本的考虑,对城市居民的选择行为有了更进一步的模拟逼近。一个合理的多主体模型应该遵循“由下而上”的建模机制的,即要充分考虑微观与宏观之间的衔接,论文在模型的实现上,将各宏观情景变量设置为可调整模式,充分考虑情景的多样性,以控制模型的运行过程。
2模型实证分析以及主要结论
论文以武汉市的洪山和武昌两区为实验区对1998年到2008年实验区城市居住空间扩张状况进行了模拟,对模型的有效性进行了验证,并结合《武汉市2006—2020年城市总体规划》对2008年之后实验区的城市居住空间演变形态进行了基于规定情景的预测,并对各情景下模型的运行结果进行了评价。从模型的运行结果来看,主要有以下结论：
(1)从对模型的各宏观参数的调整的运行结果来看,控制城市人口增长速度尤其是机械增长速度是控制城市居住空间扩张速度的关键因素；从对城市居民主体选择偏好的权重值调整的运行结果来看,价格与时间距离的权值调整对于运行结果的影响最大,表明房价与通勤的方便程度一直是城市居民主体在选择理想居住区位时最关注的问题。
(2)虽然在现实生活中,城市居民主体看似为被动的购房者,但从运行结果来看,城市居住空间的发展形态实际上会受到城市居民的居住区位意愿的影响,这是住宅市场的供求基本规律和城市扩张自组织机制的体现。随着住宅市场机制的日臻完善成熟,房产开发商会越来越重视消费者的选择偏好和潜在的市场指向；而城市政府也愈加重视公众的选择意愿,注重城市居民福利的整体增长。
3论文的主要创新点及研究不足
论文的主要创新点和贡献有：
(1)城市是以区域自然资源条件为依托的复杂社会经济系统,对城市扩张现象进行研究均不宜绕开其中自然环境或者社会经济环境的任何一方面的问题,本文以GIS技术为依托,以土地市场和住宅市场作为分析主体之间关系的纽带,模拟实现了微观经济学和经济地理学中微观经济主体的“区位选择行为”,在此基础上建立城市居住空间演化的多主体情景模型,初步探索了综合应用自然科学的相关技术和社会经济科学中的相关理论对城市扩张现象进行研究的途径,并取得了有效的成果。
(2)本文选择城市居住空间这一特定功能空间的演变为研究对象,使用土地生态位理论结合土地利用的“主客体”关系分析了城市住宅用地的区位效应,研究对象更为微观和深入。
(3)使用空间统计和空间分析技术对阿朗索模型进行修正,添加了对于现实情况中城市资源的空间分异特征以及通勤时间成本的考虑,建立了更加实用的城市居民主体选择居住区位的效用模型。
(4)在把握主体的行为特征和相互作用关系的基础上,实现了对城市居民主体和住宅开发商两类微观经济行为主体的各自的区位选择行为的解算,更好地表现了城市居住空间系统演化的内在驱动力,建立了更为客观的多主体模型。
(5)引入情景分析方法。归纳了影响城市居住空间扩张量和扩张形态的情景因素,模型中通过调整相关情景因素设置不同情景,并对不同情景下模型运行结果进行了分析评价。
论文的不足在于自身对于经济学方面理论知识的欠缺,对于城市居住空间演变过程中诸多经济问题把握仍然不够；其次,城市住宅用地的演变与工业用地以及商业用地的演变是紧密联系的,受研究精力的限制,论文只是对住宅市场进行了研究,而没有涉及其他的物业市场。总之,论文尚留有巨大的后续研究空间,模型也处在尝试性研究阶段,总体框架及技术路线有待进一步的修正完善。
Studying the phenomenon of urbanization, analyzing the change and extension rules of urban structure and building models to simulate the process of urbanization is very important to direct the urban land scientific and effective planning and using. Among many models, the one based on the theory of Multi-Agents System (MAS) is focused because of its specialty that it can reflect the base evolvement rule "from bottom to top and from micro to macro" of the complicated system fully. Based on the micro-economics and land-use niche theory, paper takes the phenomenon of China cities' residential land growth which occupy a significant proportion of the expansion of urban space in the past 10 years as the studying role, then uses GIS technology and modeling method of MAS, in the end builds a urban residential space expansion model based on the set scenes. Two districts of Hongshan and Wuchang in Wuhan city are chosen as study districts to prove the effectiveness of the model. By comparing the outcomes of the model, paper analyzed and evaluated the benefits of land resources of the residential land resources development in different scenes. In order to build and rectify the model, paper works as follows.
1. The research on theory basis and realization mechanism of the model
(1) The research on the driving force mechanism of urban expansion is the basement of urban expansion modeling studies. The competitions of the survival space of every urban functional activities are the one of the land resources, in fact which are very similar with the competitions among the different biological biomes for foods and survival space. So many overseas and internal researches introduce the biological niche theory which is usually used to explain the biological competition behaviors to make clear the change rules in the urban land using system, and concludes that the contrast among the different land use types'niches are just the driving forces. At the same time, from the aspect of the relationship between "land use agent" and "land use object", the contract of land use niches are measured by the value of the marginal utility of different land use type, then how to weigh the value of the marginal utility is decided by the degree of land use agents'recognition of land use utility. Based on this point, the paper puts forward an academic model of the urban residential land niche breadth extension.
(2) The extension of the urban residential space is just the interaction processes between the residential land resources niche agents and the residential land requesting niche agents. The residential land resources niche agents afford the resources conditions which are needed for the extension of residential land, while the natural and social resources are asymmetric in the whole urban space, there is a residential land resources niche field which is the prerequisite that residential location differences can come into being and at the same time the bases of the urban residents'behavior of selecting the favourite residential locations. Next, paper defines their roles of the three intelligent residential land requesting niche agents—urban residents, land agent and urban government respectively from the microeconomics point, analyzes their forces and influences on the extension process of urban residential space and summarizes their behavior characteristics function in the end. Especially from the concept of maximizing consumer utilities and by integrating GIS technology and the characteristic of the natural and social resources'asymmetric distribution in urban space, paper analyzes an urban family's utility components and modifies the typical Alonso model by considering cost of time distance as a core. In the end gets a utility model which is used to describe the utility when urban residents searching the ideal residential location.
(3)In the paper, such a point is considered that the motive of building an urban growing model is not getting a copy of the real urban growing situation entirely, but extracting the pivotal factors and common laws of urban growing because of the complexity of the urban itself and the instability of human society and economic activities. So different from the researches ago, the paper uses the method of scenario analysis to extract the pivotal factors which influence the process of urban growth, based on the analysis of these factors'instability, the paper builds some scenarios about the urban residential space extending situation as the micro backgrounds of the urban residential growing multi-agents model.
(4) The paper builds an experimental environment of the model is by VC Studio and GIS/RS software platforms. In the model the computation and records of every ecological niche factors and the realization of the function of urban residents'behavior of choosing the ideal residential locations are mainly considered. Different from the former researches, the model adds the consideration of the commuter time cost and simulating the urban resident agents'behavior of selecting the favourite residential locations more realistically. A reasonable multi-agent model should follow the modeling mechanism of "from bottom to top", namely must consider the engagements between the microscopic aspects of the problem and the macroscopic ones fully. In the realization of the model, paper sets some macroscopic variables such as the number of urban residents agents, macro economic anticipated, urban government's land policies, and so on which can be adjusted in different model scene, so paper can fully consider the multiplicity of scenes to control the model movement process.
2 model demonstration analysis and main conclusions
Taking the Hongshan district and the Wuchang district in Wuhan city as the experimental objects, paper simulates the expansion condition of their residential space in the time span from 1998 to 2008 in order to verify the validity of the model. Then according to "Wuhan 2006-2020 Year City Overall Planning", paper forecasts the residential space growing situation after 2008 based on the prescriptive scene, at the same time carries on the appraisal of the outcome of the model on various scenes.
Some main conclusions are given as follows from the model's outputs, (1) In the past ten years, residential space evolution of the researched districts takes the old city transformation and the suburb expansion as the chief features, both are the results of action brought about by land economical ecology niche differences. (2) As compared with the model's simulating result under the different scene condition, there are always intersection between the reality residential space evolution and the model's simulating resulte of different scene which means that because of the influence of macroscopic environment, urban government may adjust its land use policy, natural environment protection policy and so on in different periods, this is just one of characteristics of Chinese real estate market. (3) From the model simulating results, urban residents have regarded the rights and interests of themselves more and more, at the same time because of the action of market economy mechanism the real estate developer also pay more attention to the favorite choices of urban residents; and the urban government also take more attention on the public willing and the growth of resident welfare. (4) As showing in the results of the model from different macroscopic parameters, to regulate the urban population rising rate, particularly the population mechanical rising rate is a key factor to control urban residential space's extending speed; From the results of adjusting the correlative factors when urban resident agents choosing the favorite residential locations, the adjustments of the factors of land base price layers(house price) and cost of time distance have the most influences on the model simulating results, which means house price and traffic convenience are the main factors urban residents concerned about, this also reflects from another side, in the consumer community, the mid and low income crowd still hold comparatively proportion.
3. Main research innovation and limitation
Paper's main innovation and the contribution includes:(1) from the internal causes and driving forces of urban residential space's extending, the paper analyzes every type of microscopic and intelligent agent's behavior character and interaction each other, and uses related microeconomic concepts and methods to define various agents'behavior character. (2) Considering of the spatial distribution differentiation character of nature and social resources in urban regions, the paper puts forward the concept of urban residential land ecology niche field, while the urban residents'processes of choosing the ideal residential locations are really the processes of choosing the proper residential locations which should match to "the ecology price" of themselves in the urban residential land ecology niche field. (3)The paper improves the classical Alonso model, and builds a new model that can measure the utility which urban residents can get when choosing the ideal residential locations more factually and more roundly. (4) By introducing the scenario analysis method, paper extracts and analyzes the pivotal factors which influence the growing process of urban resident space possibly, then put forwards different scenes, and realizes variable corresponding scene by adjusting the factors and carries on the analysis appraisal to different results.
Because of lack of sufficient economic theory and knowledge, the analysis to some economic problems of urban residential space's successive extending processes are still insufficient. Otherwise there are close interactions among the commercial land's evolution, industrial land's evolution and residential land's evolution, because of the limited research capacity and energy, the paper only consider the residential market but other relatively markets are ignored. In brief, the paper still have huge research space left, the model is also on the attempted research stage, the overall frame and the technical route waits for the further revision consummation.
1模型的理论基础与实现机制研究
(1)城市扩张的驱动力分析是所有城市建模研究的基础。城市中各种功能活动对生存空间(土地资源)的争夺与自然界中不同生物种群对领地的争夺极其相似,因此相关研究引入生物学中用以解释生物群落之间相互竞争的生态位理论来分析城市土地利用系统中土地利用结构的演变规律,认为不同土地利用类型之间的生态位势差是城市土地利用结构演变的动力,而且这种生态位势差决定于不同土地利用类型的边际效益的比较。本文在以上研究基础上进行扩展,充分考虑城市土地利用的空间特征和微观区位差异,进一步分析土地利用生态位势差的形成原因,针对本文的研究对象给出基于微观区位的城市住宅用地的生态位宽度扩展理论模型,作为建立城市居住空间演化多主体情景模型的理论基础。
(2)本文认为,从土地利用的“主客体”关系来看,土地利用的生态位势差归根结底取决于土地利用主体对于土地利用效益的认知方式和程度。对于特定的土地利用客体,不同的土地利用主体会有不同的土地利用方式,城市的扩张也会呈现出不同的情景。由于城市系统的复杂性和人类社会及经济活动的不确定性,建立城市空间扩张模型的目的不在于要实现也不可能实现对于真实情景的100%地复制,而是要抽取城市空间扩张演化的关键因素和一般性规律,分析这些关键因素影响城市居住空间演化的规律。本文分析了三类直接或者间接土地利用主体--城市居民主体、房产开发商和城市政府(微观智能体)的行为对城市居住空间扩张过程的影响,从影响城市居住空间的扩张量和扩张形态两方面分别归纳出主要的情景因素,调整这些情景因素的参数值可以构建城市居住空间发展的不同宏观背景。
(3)本文将城市居住空间的扩展过程视为住宅用地资源生态位主体和需求生态位主体两者相互作用的过程。资源生态位主体提供微观区域发展为住宅用地的各种资源条件,由于自然以及社会资源的空间分异特征,城市内部形成住宅用地资源生态位势场。住宅用地资源生态位势场是形成住宅区位差异的充要条件,也是城市居民主体进行理想居住区位选择的依据。使用微观经济学的理论给出城市居民主体、房产开发商和城市政府三类需求生态位主体的目标函数并纳入到模型中,实现对于现实生活中这三类微观主体行为特征的模拟。特别地,论文从消费者效用最大化的概念出发,以城市家庭为单位对其效用组成进行分析,以GIS为技术基础,结合城市自然及社会经济资源的空间分异特征,着重考虑了对于通勤时间成本的实现,对经典的阿朗索模型进行了修正,提出了城市居民主体理想居住区位选择行为的效用模型。
(4)建立了模型的实验环境。模型中重点考虑了对于城市住宅用地资源生态位势场各生态位因子的计算记录,以及城市居民主体对于理想居住区位的选择行为子模块的的实现,与以往的研究文献不同,该模块添加了对于通勤时间成本的考虑,对城市居民的选择行为有了更进一步的模拟逼近。一个合理的多主体模型应该遵循“由下而上”的建模机制的,即要充分考虑微观与宏观之间的衔接,论文在模型的实现上,将各宏观情景变量设置为可调整模式,充分考虑情景的多样性,以控制模型的运行过程。
2模型实证分析以及主要结论
论文以武汉市的洪山和武昌两区为实验区对1998年到2008年实验区城市居住空间扩张状况进行了模拟,对模型的有效性进行了验证,并结合《武汉市2006—2020年城市总体规划》对2008年之后实验区的城市居住空间演变形态进行了基于规定情景的预测,并对各情景下模型的运行结果进行了评价。从模型的运行结果来看,主要有以下结论：
(1)从对模型的各宏观参数的调整的运行结果来看,控制城市人口增长速度尤其是机械增长速度是控制城市居住空间扩张速度的关键因素；从对城市居民主体选择偏好的权重值调整的运行结果来看,价格与时间距离的权值调整对于运行结果的影响最大,表明房价与通勤的方便程度一直是城市居民主体在选择理想居住区位时最关注的问题。
(2)虽然在现实生活中,城市居民主体看似为被动的购房者,但从运行结果来看,城市居住空间的发展形态实际上会受到城市居民的居住区位意愿的影响,这是住宅市场的供求基本规律和城市扩张自组织机制的体现。随着住宅市场机制的日臻完善成熟,房产开发商会越来越重视消费者的选择偏好和潜在的市场指向；而城市政府也愈加重视公众的选择意愿,注重城市居民福利的整体增长。
3论文的主要创新点及研究不足
论文的主要创新点和贡献有：
(1)城市是以区域自然资源条件为依托的复杂社会经济系统,对城市扩张现象进行研究均不宜绕开其中自然环境或者社会经济环境的任何一方面的问题,本文以GIS技术为依托,以土地市场和住宅市场作为分析主体之间关系的纽带,模拟实现了微观经济学和经济地理学中微观经济主体的“区位选择行为”,在此基础上建立城市居住空间演化的多主体情景模型,初步探索了综合应用自然科学的相关技术和社会经济科学中的相关理论对城市扩张现象进行研究的途径,并取得了有效的成果。
(2)本文选择城市居住空间这一特定功能空间的演变为研究对象,使用土地生态位理论结合土地利用的“主客体”关系分析了城市住宅用地的区位效应,研究对象更为微观和深入。
(3)使用空间统计和空间分析技术对阿朗索模型进行修正,添加了对于现实情况中城市资源的空间分异特征以及通勤时间成本的考虑,建立了更加实用的城市居民主体选择居住区位的效用模型。
(4)在把握主体的行为特征和相互作用关系的基础上,实现了对城市居民主体和住宅开发商两类微观经济行为主体的各自的区位选择行为的解算,更好地表现了城市居住空间系统演化的内在驱动力,建立了更为客观的多主体模型。
(5)引入情景分析方法。归纳了影响城市居住空间扩张量和扩张形态的情景因素,模型中通过调整相关情景因素设置不同情景,并对不同情景下模型运行结果进行了分析评价。
论文的不足在于自身对于经济学方面理论知识的欠缺,对于城市居住空间演变过程中诸多经济问题把握仍然不够；其次,城市住宅用地的演变与工业用地以及商业用地的演变是紧密联系的,受研究精力的限制,论文只是对住宅市场进行了研究,而没有涉及其他的物业市场。总之,论文尚留有巨大的后续研究空间,模型也处在尝试性研究阶段,总体框架及技术路线有待进一步的修正完善。
Studying the phenomenon of urbanization, analyzing the change and extension rules of urban structure and building models to simulate the process of urbanization is very important to direct the urban land scientific and effective planning and using. Among many models, the one based on the theory of Multi-Agents System (MAS) is focused because of its specialty that it can reflect the base evolvement rule "from bottom to top and from micro to macro" of the complicated system fully. Based on the micro-economics and land-use niche theory, paper takes the phenomenon of China cities' residential land growth which occupy a significant proportion of the expansion of urban space in the past 10 years as the studying role, then uses GIS technology and modeling method of MAS, in the end builds a urban residential space expansion model based on the set scenes. Two districts of Hongshan and Wuchang in Wuhan city are chosen as study districts to prove the effectiveness of the model. By comparing the outcomes of the model, paper analyzed and evaluated the benefits of land resources of the residential land resources development in different scenes. In order to build and rectify the model, paper works as follows.
1. The research on theory basis and realization mechanism of the model
(1) The research on the driving force mechanism of urban expansion is the basement of urban expansion modeling studies. The competitions of the survival space of every urban functional activities are the one of the land resources, in fact which are very similar with the competitions among the different biological biomes for foods and survival space. So many overseas and internal researches introduce the biological niche theory which is usually used to explain the biological competition behaviors to make clear the change rules in the urban land using system, and concludes that the contrast among the different land use types'niches are just the driving forces. At the same time, from the aspect of the relationship between "land use agent" and "land use object", the contract of land use niches are measured by the value of the marginal utility of different land use type, then how to weigh the value of the marginal utility is decided by the degree of land use agents'recognition of land use utility. Based on this point, the paper puts forward an academic model of the urban residential land niche breadth extension.
(2) The extension of the urban residential space is just the interaction processes between the residential land resources niche agents and the residential land requesting niche agents. The residential land resources niche agents afford the resources conditions which are needed for the extension of residential land, while the natural and social resources are asymmetric in the whole urban space, there is a residential land resources niche field which is the prerequisite that residential location differences can come into being and at the same time the bases of the urban residents'behavior of selecting the favourite residential locations. Next, paper defines their roles of the three intelligent residential land requesting niche agents—urban residents, land agent and urban government respectively from the microeconomics point, analyzes their forces and influences on the extension process of urban residential space and summarizes their behavior characteristics function in the end. Especially from the concept of maximizing consumer utilities and by integrating GIS technology and the characteristic of the natural and social resources'asymmetric distribution in urban space, paper analyzes an urban family's utility components and modifies the typical Alonso model by considering cost of time distance as a core. In the end gets a utility model which is used to describe the utility when urban residents searching the ideal residential location.
(3)In the paper, such a point is considered that the motive of building an urban growing model is not getting a copy of the real urban growing situation entirely, but extracting the pivotal factors and common laws of urban growing because of the complexity of the urban itself and the instability of human society and economic activities. So different from the researches ago, the paper uses the method of scenario analysis to extract the pivotal factors which influence the process of urban growth, based on the analysis of these factors'instability, the paper builds some scenarios about the urban residential space extending situation as the micro backgrounds of the urban residential growing multi-agents model.
(4) The paper builds an experimental environment of the model is by VC Studio and GIS/RS software platforms. In the model the computation and records of every ecological niche factors and the realization of the function of urban residents'behavior of choosing the ideal residential locations are mainly considered. Different from the former researches, the model adds the consideration of the commuter time cost and simulating the urban resident agents'behavior of selecting the favourite residential locations more realistically. A reasonable multi-agent model should follow the modeling mechanism of "from bottom to top", namely must consider the engagements between the microscopic aspects of the problem and the macroscopic ones fully. In the realization of the model, paper sets some macroscopic variables such as the number of urban residents agents, macro economic anticipated, urban government's land policies, and so on which can be adjusted in different model scene, so paper can fully consider the multiplicity of scenes to control the model movement process.
2 model demonstration analysis and main conclusions
Taking the Hongshan district and the Wuchang district in Wuhan city as the experimental objects, paper simulates the expansion condition of their residential space in the time span from 1998 to 2008 in order to verify the validity of the model. Then according to "Wuhan 2006-2020 Year City Overall Planning", paper forecasts the residential space growing situation after 2008 based on the prescriptive scene, at the same time carries on the appraisal of the outcome of the model on various scenes.
Some main conclusions are given as follows from the model's outputs, (1) In the past ten years, residential space evolution of the researched districts takes the old city transformation and the suburb expansion as the chief features, both are the results of action brought about by land economical ecology niche differences. (2) As compared with the model's simulating result under the different scene condition, there are always intersection between the reality residential space evolution and the model's simulating resulte of different scene which means that because of the influence of macroscopic environment, urban government may adjust its land use policy, natural environment protection policy and so on in different periods, this is just one of characteristics of Chinese real estate market. (3) From the model simulating results, urban residents have regarded the rights and interests of themselves more and more, at the same time because of the action of market economy mechanism the real estate developer also pay more attention to the favorite choices of urban residents; and the urban government also take more attention on the public willing and the growth of resident welfare. (4) As showing in the results of the model from different macroscopic parameters, to regulate the urban population rising rate, particularly the population mechanical rising rate is a key factor to control urban residential space's extending speed; From the results of adjusting the correlative factors when urban resident agents choosing the favorite residential locations, the adjustments of the factors of land base price layers(house price) and cost of time distance have the most influences on the model simulating results, which means house price and traffic convenience are the main factors urban residents concerned about, this also reflects from another side, in the consumer community, the mid and low income crowd still hold comparatively proportion.
3. Main research innovation and limitation
Paper's main innovation and the contribution includes:(1) from the internal causes and driving forces of urban residential space's extending, the paper analyzes every type of microscopic and intelligent agent's behavior character and interaction each other, and uses related microeconomic concepts and methods to define various agents'behavior character. (2) Considering of the spatial distribution differentiation character of nature and social resources in urban regions, the paper puts forward the concept of urban residential land ecology niche field, while the urban residents'processes of choosing the ideal residential locations are really the processes of choosing the proper residential locations which should match to "the ecology price" of themselves in the urban residential land ecology niche field. (3)The paper improves the classical Alonso model, and builds a new model that can measure the utility which urban residents can get when choosing the ideal residential locations more factually and more roundly. (4) By introducing the scenario analysis method, paper extracts and analyzes the pivotal factors which influence the growing process of urban resident space possibly, then put forwards different scenes, and realizes variable corresponding scene by adjusting the factors and carries on the analysis appraisal to different results.
Because of lack of sufficient economic theory and knowledge, the analysis to some economic problems of urban residential space's successive extending processes are still insufficient. Otherwise there are close interactions among the commercial land's evolution, industrial land's evolution and residential land's evolution, because of the limited research capacity and energy, the paper only consider the residential market but other relatively markets are ignored. In brief, the paper still have huge research space left, the model is also on the attempted research stage, the overall frame and the technical route waits for the further revision consummation.
引文
[1].邓卫,宋扬.住宅经济学[M],北京：清华大学出版社,2008
[2].方美琪,张树人.复杂系统建模与仿真[M],北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005
[3]郭庆胜,杜晓初,闫卫阳.地理空间推理[M],北京：科学出版社,2006
[4].王万茂,韩桐魁.土地利用规划学[M],北京：中国农业出版社,2002
[5].刘耀彬.城市化与资源环境相互关系的理论与实证研究[M],北京：中国财政经济出版社,2007
[6].王正林,刘明.精通MATLAB7[M],北京：电子工业出版社,2006
[7].季郎超.非均衡的房地产市场[M],北京：经济管理出版社,2004
[8].刘卫东,邬明德,周力丰.城市地价评估理论探索与实践[M],北京：科学出版社,2007
[9].丹尼斯.迪帕斯奎尔,龙奋杰译.城市经济学与房地产市场[M],北京：经济科学出版社,2001
[10].Margaret H.Dunham著,郭崇慧,田凤占,靳晓明等译.数据挖掘教程[M],北京：清华大学出版社,2005
[11].阿瑟.奥沙利文,苏晓燕等译.城市经济学[M],北京：北京大学出版社,2008
[12].江斌,黄波,陆锋.GIs环境下的空间分析和地学视觉化[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2002
[13].周成虎,孙战利,谢一春.地理元胞自动机研究[M],北京：科学出版社,2001
[14].Paolo Giudici著,袁方,王煜,王丽娟等译.实用数据挖掘[M],北京：电子工业出版社,2004
[15].史培军等.土地利用／覆盖变化与生态安全响应机制[M],北京：科学出版社,2004
[16].杨贵庆,城市社会心理学[M],上海：同济大学出版社,2000
[17].刘卫东等.城市土地价格调查、评价及动态监测[M],北京：科学出版社,2002
[18].陈顺清.城市增长与土地增值[M],北京：科学出版社,2000
[19]李善民.西方经济学[M],广州：中山大学出版社,1996
[20].张泓铭.住宅经济学[M],上海：上海财经大学出版社,1998.
[21].张红.房地产经济学讲义[M],北京：中信出版社,2004
[22].Russells, Norvingp,姜哲等译.人工智能--一种现代方法[M],北京：邮电出版社,2004
[23].刘妙龙,陈鹏.城市空间扩散增长模型与模拟[J],人文地理,2004,19(2),6-11
[24].摆万奇.深圳市土地利用动态趋势分析[J],自然资源学报,2000,15(2),112-16
[25].金晓斌,殷少美,尹小宁,周寅康.城市住宅产业发展系统动力学研究一以南京市为例[J],南京大学学报,2004,40(6),760-768
[26].薛领,杨开忠.城市演化的多主体(multi agent)模型研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,2003(12),1-9
[27].梁进社,王曼.城市用地与人口的异速增长和相关经验研究[J],地理科学,2002,22(6),649-654
[28]帅江平.供求平衡状态下的城市自组织过程[J],地理学报,1996,51(4),374-383
[29].李后强,艾南山.关于城市演化的非线性动力学问题[J],经济地理,1996,16(1),65-70
[30].薛领,杨开忠,沈体雁.基于agent的建模一地理计算的新发展[J],地球科学进展,2004,19(2),305-311
[31].金小刚.基于Matlab的元胞自动机的仿真设计[J],计算机仿真,2002,19(4),27-30
[32].刘小平等.基于多智能体的土地利用模拟与规划模型[J],地理学报,2006,61(10),1101-1112
[33].刘小平,黎夏,叶嘉安.基于多智能体系统的空间决策行为及土地利用格局演变的模拟[J],中国科学D辑地球科学2006,36(11)：1027-10361027
[34].董昕.城市住宅区位及其影响因素分析[J],城市规划,2001,25(2),33-39
[35].郑静,许学强,陈浩光.广州市社会空间的因子生态再分析[J],地理研究,1995,14(2),15-26
[36].黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的元胞自动机及模拟复杂土地利用系统[J],地理研究,2005,24(1),19-27
[37].刘妙龙,陈鹏.基于细胞自动机与多主体系统理论的城市模拟原型模型[J],地理科学,2006,26(3),292-298
[38].谭遂,杨开忠,谭成文.基于自组织理论的两种城市空间结构动态模型比较[J],经济地理,2002,22(3),322-326
[39].谭永忠,吴次芳,牟永铭,王庆日,余振国.经济快速发展地区县级尺度土地利用空间格局变化模拟[J],农业工程学报,2006,22(12),72-77
[40].陈勇.空间博奕理论的应用与规划启示[J],城市规划汇刊,2002(2),62-64
[41].杨吾扬.区位论中的宏观和一般均衡.[J].经济地理,1989,9(3),161-165
[42].沈艳,郭兵,古天祥.粒子群优化算法及其与遗传算法的比较[J],电子科技大学学报,2005,34(5),696-699
[43].张学才,郭瑞雪.情景分析方法综述[J],理论月刊,2005(8)，,125-126
[44].杜德斌,崔裴,刘小玲.论住宅需求、居住选址与居住分异[J],经济地理,1996,16(1),82-90
[45].郑思齐,符育明,刘洪玉.利用排序多元Logit模型研究城市居民的居住区位选择[J],地理科学进展,2004,23(5),86-93
[46].郝寿义,安虎森.区域经济学[M],北京：经济科学出版社,2004
[47].张兵.我国城市住房空间分布重构[J],城市规划汇刊,1995(2),37-40
[48].段增强,张凤荣,孔祥斌.土地利用变化信息挖掘方法及其应用[J],农业工程学报,2005,21(12)：60-66
[49].李江,郭庆胜.武汉市土地利用结构演变及空间扩展研究[J],西北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(4)：77-80
[50].宋菊芳,杜宁睿,李志.武汉市流动人口空间聚集特征分析及对策研究[J],2001,17(2),29-31
[51].黎夏,叶嘉安.遗传算法和GIS结合进行空间优化决策[J],地理学报,2004,59(5),745-753
[52].罗平.地理特征元胞自动机及城市土地利用演化研究[博士论文],武汉：武汉大学,2004
[53].张勇强.城市空间发展自组织与城市规划[M],南京：东南大学出版社,2006
[54].黄光宇,杨培峰.自然生态资源评价分析与城市空间发展研究[J],城市规划,2001,25(1),67-71
[55].郑思齐,符育明,刘洪玉.城市居民对居住区位的偏好：支付意愿梯度模型的估计[J],地理科学进展,2005,24(1),97-104
[56].顾朝林,张晓明,刘晋媛,张从果.盐城开发空间区划及其思考[J],地理学报,2007,62(8)：787-798
[57].郑海霞,任学慧,张艳秋.县域土地利用/覆被变化对生态环境承载力影响评价—以江苏省建湖县为例[J],国土与自然资源研究,2007(3),44-45
[58].黄宇萍.土地利用过程中的生态环境评价体系[J],经济地理,2007,27(6),1004-1006
[59].倪九派,魏朝富,谢德体.土地利用的生态位及调控机制的研究[J],农业工程学报,2005,21 ZK,113-115
[60].张侠,葛向东,濮励杰,黄贤金,彭补拙.土地利用的经济生态位分析和耕地保护机制研究[J],自然资源学报,2002,17(6),677-683
[61].原华荣,周仲高,黄洪琳.土地承载力的规定和人口与环境的间断平衡[J],浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2007,37(5),114-123
[62].陈成忠,林振山,陈玲玲.生态足迹与生态承载力非线性动力学分析[J],生态学报,2006,26(11),3812-3816
[63].王筱明.生态位适宜度评价模型在退耕还林决策中的应用[J],农业工程学报,2007,23(8),113-116
[64].欧阳志云,王如松,符贵南.生态位适宜度模型及其在土地利用适宜性评价中的应用生态学报,1996,16(2),113-120
[65].张金前,韦素琼.生态位理论在我国生态城市研究中的应用[J],山西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,21(1),103-108
[66].房艳刚.城市地理空间系统的复杂性研究.[博士论文],长春：东北师范大学,2006
[67].胡春雷,肖 玲.生态位理论与方法在城市研究中的应用[J],地域研究与开发,2004,23(2),13-16
[68].谭许伟,王东明,张建军,李玉芳.沈阳城市可持续发展水平的生态足迹分析[J],环境保护科学,2008,34(1),47-49
[69].延军平,严艳.陕甘宁边区生态购买设计与操作途径[J],地理学报,2002,57(3),343-353
[70].代磊汪诚文刘仁志.宁波市土地生态适宜性评价分析[J],ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION,2006(12),40-42
[71].李景刚,何春阳,李晓兵.快速城市化地区自然／半自然景观空间生态风险评价研究一以北京为例[J],自然资源学报,2008,23(1),33-47
[72].曹新向,梁留科,丁圣彦.可持续发展定量评价的生态足迹分析方法[J],自然杂志,2003,25(6),335-339
[73].宋巍巍,刘年丰,谢鸿宇.基于综合生态足迹的项目生态环境影响分析研究[J],华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2005,22(1),85-89
[74].孟伟庆,李洪远,鞠美庭,吴贤斌,马春.基于市民需求的天津市城市绿色空间综合评价[J],城市环境与城市生态,2008,21(1),13-17
[75].符海月,李满春,毛亮,刘永学.基于生态足迹的土地利用规划生态成效定量分析一以河北省廊坊市为例[J],自然资源学报,2007,22(2),225-235
[76].俞艳,何建华.基于生态位适宜度的土地生态经济适宜性评价[J],农业工程学报,2008,24(1),124-128
[77].祁新华,毛蒋兴,程煜.基于生态位理论的城市空间优化策略研究一以增城市为例[J],规划师,2007,23(2),89-91
[78].张林波,李伟涛,王维,熊严军.基于GIS的城市最小生态用地空间分析模型研究一以深圳市为例[J],自然资源学报,2008,23(1),69-78
[79].郭林,张浩,王祥荣.广东佛山市土地利用格局与生态承载力相关性研究[J],中国生态农业学报,2007,15(5),193-196
[80].何骏.大连市城市生产生活消费的生态足迹分析[J],沈阳师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,25(1),99-103
[81].宗跃光,徐宏彦,汤艳冰,陈红春.城市生态系统服务功能的价值结构分析[J],城市环境与城市生态,1999,12(4),19-22
[82].李晓燕,陈红.城市生态交通规划的理论框架[J],长安大学学报(自然科学版),2006,26(1),79-82
[83].董家华,包存宽,黄鹤,舒廷飞.土地生态适宜性分析在城市规划环境影响评价中的应用[J],长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(6),698-702
[84].俞艳,何建华,袁艳斌.土地生态经济适宜性评价模型研究[J],武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2008,33(3),273-276
[85].倪九派,魏朝富,谢德体.土地利用的生态位及调控机制的研究[J],农业工程学报,2005,21(增刊),113-115
[86].白光润,朱海森.中国大陆人口移动机制与调控对策[J],人文地理,1999,9
[87].荀文会,刘友兆,王雨晴.生态位理论视阈中的土地可持续利用研究一以江苏省昆山市为例[J],农村经济,2006(9),19-22
[88].秦建成,高明.山地城镇土地利用的经济生态位分析及持续发展一以重庆市为例[J],山地学报,2003,21(6),702-706
[89].王汉花,刘艳芳.基于生态位与约束CA的土地资源优化配置模型研究一以武汉市黄陂区为例[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(2),97-102
[90].祁新华,毛蒋兴,程煜.基于生态位理论的城市空间优化策略研究一以增城市为例[J],规划师,2007,23(2),89-91
[91].段瑞娟,郝晋珉,张洁瑕.北京区位土地利用与生态服务价值变化研究[J],农业工程学报,2006,22(9),21-28
[92].刘小平,黎夏,彭晓鹃.“生态位”元胞自动机在土地可持续规划模型中的应用[J],生态学报,2007,27(6),2392-2402
[93].王万茂,张颖.土地整理与可持续发展[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2004,14(1),13-18
[94].温海珍,贾生华.住宅的特征与特征的价格一基于特征价格模型的分析[J],浙江大学学报(工学版),2004,38(10),1338-1349
[95].帅友良.中国人口城市化对城镇住宅市场需求的影响[J],统计研究,2005(9),75-79
[96].丁成日.中国城市土地利用,房地产发展,城市政策[J],城市发展研究,2003,10(5),58-63
[97].陈明,朱妍.享乐定价法在房地产中的应用研究[J],延边大学学报(社会科学版),2005,38(1),56-61
[98].丁成日.土地政策和城市住房发展[J],城市发展研究,2002,9(2),61-66
[99].刘荣霞等.土地利用结构优化方法述评[J],北京大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(4),655-662
[100].丁成目.土地价值与城市增长[J],城市发展研究,2002,9(6),48-53
[101].刘艳芳,李兴林,龚红波.基于遗传算法的土地利用结构优化研究[J],武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2005,30(4),288-292
[102].崔和瑞,赵黎明,张晋国.县域土地资源可持续利用系统动态仿真决策模型研究[J], 西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2003,3(1),1107-110
[103].王进,李准,曹升元.基于博弈论的住宅开发商行为决策研究[J],建筑经济,2007,(6),60-63
[104].彭诩,杜宁睿,刘云.大城市居住用地扩展的多主体模型研究[J],武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2007,32(6),548-551
[105].何春阳,史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠,李晓兵,李京,李月臣,李景刚.基于系统动力学模 型和元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模型研究[J],中国科学D辑,2005,35(5),464-473
[106].丁成日.城市土地需求分析[J],国外城市规划,2005,20(4),19-25
[107].刘盛和.城市土地利用扩展的空间模式与动力机制[J],地理科学进展,2002,21(1),43-50
[108].林炳耀.城市空间形态的计量方法及其评价[J],城市规划汇刊,1998(3),42-46
[109].王磊.城市产业结构调整与城市空间结构演化--从武汉市为例[J],城市规划汇刊,2001(3),55-58
[110].杨桂山.长江三角洲近50年耕地数量变化的过程与驱动机制研究[J],自然资源学报,2001,16(2),121-127
[111].黄奕龙,王仰麟,卜心国,杨 磊.城市土地利用综合效益评价--城际比较[J],热带地理,2006,26(2),146-150
[112].周亦平.我国房地产现状原因分析、发展趋势与政策走势判断[J],特区经济,2006(11),351-353
[113].朱春全.生态位态势理论与扩充假说[J],生态学报,1997,17(3),324-332
[114].赵雷,徐建刚.情景规划理念在扬中市规划中的应用研究[J]城乡规划,2008,26(7),73-76
[115].黎夏,叶嘉安.基于元胞自动机的城市发展密度模拟[J],地理科学,2006,26(2),165-172
[116].雷羡梅.试论城市经济的生态位[J],中国城市经济,2004,2,20-23
[117].刘 永,郭怀成,王丽婧,戴永立,张秀敏,贺 彬.环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究[J],环境科学研究,2005,18(3),82-86
[118].陶海燕,黎夏,陈晓翔,刘小平.基于多智能体的地理空间分异现象模拟—以城市居住空间演变为例[J],地理学报,2007,62(6),579-588
[119].金丽国,区域主体与空间经济自组织,[M],上海人民出版社,2007
[120].曹嵘.城市居住区位研究--以上海市中心城区为例.[硕士论文]上海：上海师范大学,2003
[121].陶海燕,潘茂林,黎夏,陈晓翔.城市居住空间分异仿真模型框架研究[J],系统仿真学报,2007,19(21),5086-5092
[122].张京祥,罗震东,何建颐.体制转型与空间重构[M],东南大学出版社,2007
[123].金丽国,区域主体与空间经济自组织,[M],上海人民出版社,2007
[124].A.D. McDonald,L.R. Little, R. Gray, E. Fulton, K.J. Sainsbury, V.D. Lyne. An agent-based modelling approach to evaluation of multiple-use management strategies for coastal marine ecosystems [J],Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 78 (2008) 401-411,
[125]Pearman AD. Scenario construction for transportation planning [J]. Transportation Planning and Technology,1988, (7):73-85.
[126]Kahn J,Wiener A J. The year 2000:a framework for speculation on the next 33 years[M].New York:MacMillan Press,1967.
[127]FaheyL, Randal R M. Learning from the future:competitive foresightscenarios[M]. New York:Wiley,1998.52-55.
[128]Antona, M., Bommel, F., Bousquet, F., Page, C., Interactions and orga-nization in ecosystem management:the use of multi-agent systems to simulate incentive environmental policies. In: Urban, C., (Ed.),Agent-based Simulation 3, SCS-European Publishing House, Passau,pp,2002.85-92.
[129]Doran, J.,2001. Intervening to achieve co-operative ecosystem management: towards an agent based model. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 4(2) http://wwwsocsurreyacuk/JASSS/4/2/4.html.,2001
[130]Ferrand, N., Modelling and supporting multi-actor planning usingmulti-agents systems, Third NCGIA Conference on GIS and Environmental Modelling, Santa Barbara. 1996.
[131]Gimblett, H.. Integrating geographic information systems and agentbased modeling techniques for simulating social and ecological processes, Santa Fe Institute Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, Oxford, Oxford University Press.2001
[132]Otter, H.,2000. Complex adaptive land use systems:an interdisciplinary approach with agent-based model. PhD Thesis. University of Twente.
[133]Parker, C., Manson, S., Janssen, M., Hoffmann, M., Deadman, P., 2003.Multi-agent system models for the simulation of land-use and landcover change:a review. Forthcoming, Annals of the Association of American Geographers 93(2).
[134]Sengupta, R., Bennet, D.,2003. Agent-based modelling environment for spatial decision support. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 17(2),157-180.
[135]Torrens, P.,2003. Cellular automata and multi-agent systems as planning support tools. In:Geertman, S., Stillwell, J. (Eds.), Planning Support Systems in Practice. Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, Berlin, pp.206-222.
[136]Deadman, P., Gimblett, R.,1994. A role for goal-oriented autonomous agents in modeling people-environment interactions in forest recreation. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 20(8),121-133.
[137]Itami, R.M., Gimblett, H.R.,2000. Intelligent recreation agents in a virtual gis world. Complexity International 8.
[138]Benenson, I.,1998. Multi-agent simulations of residential dynamics in the city. Computers Environment and Urban Systems 22,25-42.
[139]Quigley J M. Housing demand in the short run:analysis of polytomous choice. Expl Econ Res,1976, (3):76-102
[140]McFadden D. Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative choice Behavior. In: Zarembka P, ed. Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press,1974.105-142
[141]McFadden D. Modeling the choice of residential location in spatial interaction theory and planning models. In:Karlqvist A,Lundqvist L, Snickars F, et al. eds. Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, North Holland Amsterdam,1978.75-96
[142]Arend Ligtenberg,Arnold K Bregt,Ronvan Lammern, Multi-actor-based land use modelling:spatial planning using agents. Landscape and planning,2002,56:21-33
[143]Arend Ligtenberga,*, Monica Wachowicza, Arnold K. Bregta, Adrie Beulensb, Dirk L. Kettenisb, A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning. Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72:43-55
[144]Itzhak Benenson,Karel Martens,Slava Birfir.Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 32 (2008) 431-439
[145]Jean-Christophe Castellaa,Suan Pheng Kamb, Dang Dinh Quangc, Peter H. Verburgd, Chu Thai Hoanhb.Combining top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches of land use/cover change to support public policies:Application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam.Land Use Policy.2007,24:531-545
[146].Shu-Li Huangag, Hsiao-Yin Laib, Chia-Lun Lee. Energy hierarchy and urban landscape system [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 53 (2001) 145-161
[147].C.Y. Jim,Wendy Y. Chen. Impacts of urban environmental elements on residential housing prices in Guangzhou (China) [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 78 (2006) 422-434
[148].Jacqueline Geoghegan, Lisa A. Wainger, Nancy E. Bockstael. Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework:an ecological economics analysis using GIS [J],Ecological Economics 23 (1997) 251-264
[149].Jerry Johnson, Bruce Maxwell. The role of the Conservation Reserve Program in controlling rural residential development [J],Journal of Rural Studies 17 (2001) 323-332
[150].Johan Colding.'Ecological land-use complementation' for building resilience in urban ecosystems [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 81 (2007) 46-55
[151].Yeqiao Wang,Xinsheng Zhang. A dynamic modeling effects approach to simulating socioeconomic on landscape changes[J],Ecological Modelling 140 (2001) 141-162
[152].Perry Pei-Ju Yang,Ong Boon Lay. Applying ecosystem concepts to the planning of industrial areas:a case study of Singapore's Jurong Island [J],Journal of Cleaner Production 12 (2004)1011-1023
[153].Perry Pei-Ju Yang,Ong Boon Lay. Applying ecosystem concepts to the planning of industrial areas:a case study of Singapore's Jurong Island [J],Journal of Cleaner Production 12(2004)1011-1023
[154].M.L. Collin, A.J. Melloul. Assessing groundwater vulnerability to pollution to promote sustainable urban and rural development [J],Journal of Cleaner Production 11 (2003) 727-736
[155].Makoto Yokohari, Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Takashi Watanabe, Shigehiro Yokota. Beyond greenbelts and zoning:A new planning concept for the environment of Asian mega-cities [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 47 (2000) 159-171
[156].Christian G Raumann, Mary E. Cablk. Change in the forested and developed landscape of the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada, USA,1940-2002 [J],Forest Ecology and Management 255 (2008) 3424-3439
[157].Janez Pirnat. Conservation and management of forest patches and corridors in suburban landscapes [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 52 (2000) 135-143
[158].Rachel C. Davey, Thomas Cochrane,Christopher Gidlow,Jon Fairburn, Graham Smith. Design of a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial:Ecological approach to increasing physical activity in an urban community [J],Contemporary Clinical Trials xxx (2008)xxx-xxx
[159].Claire Freeman,Oliver Buck. Development of an for urban ecological mapping methodology areas in New Zealand [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 63 (2003) 161-173
[160].K.E.Heckmann, P.N. Manley, M.D. Schlesinger. Ecological integrity of remnant montane forests along an urban gradient in the Sierra Nevada [J],Forest Ecology and Management 255 (2008) 2453-2466
[161].Johan Colding. Ecological land-use complementation' for building resilience in urban ecosystems [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 81 (2007) 46-55
[162].Lubos Matejicek, Libuse Benesova, Jaroslav Tonika. Ecological modelling of nitrate pollution in small river basins by spreadsheets and GIS [J],Ecological Modelling.170 (2003) 245-263
[163].Haiyan Chen, S. Ganesan, Beisi Jia. Environmental challenges of post-reform housing development in Beijing [J],Habitat International 29 (2005) 571-589
[164].D.C. Howard, J.W. Watkins, R.T. Clarke, C.L. Barnett, GJ. Stark. Estimating the extent and change in Broad Habitats in Great Britain [J] Journal of Environmental Management 67 (2003) 219-227
[165].Nicholas S.G Williams, Mark J. McDonnell, Emma J. Seager. Factors influencing the loss of an endangered ecosystem in an urbanising landscape:a case grasslands from Melbourne study of native Australia [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 71 (2005) 35-49
[166].Rebecca L. Eaton, Geoffrey P. Hammond, Jane Laurie. Footprints on the landscape: An environmental appraisal of urban and rural living in the developed world [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 83 (2007) 13-28
[167].Edward A. Cook. Landscape structure indices for assessing urban ecological networks [J], Landscape and Urban Planning 58 (2002) 269-280
[168].Gretchen C. Daily. Management objectives for the protection of ecosystem services [J],Environmental Science&Policy 3 (2000) 333-339
[169].Paul Irving, Ian Moncrieff. Managing the environmental impacts of land transport: integrating environmental analysis with urban planning [J],Science of the Total Environment 334-335 (2004) 47-59
[170]Jamie Tratalos, Richard A. Fuller,Philip H. Warren, Richard G. Davies, Kevin J. Gaston. Urban form, biodiversity potential and ecosystem services [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 83 (2007) 308-317
[171].Erle C. Ellis,Hongqing Wang, Hong Sheng Xiao.... Measuring long-term ecological changes in densely populated landscapes using current and historical high resolution imagery [J],Remote Sensing of Environment 100 (2006) 457-473
[172].William L. Stefanov, Michael S. Ramsey, Philip R. Christensen. Monitoring urban land cover change:An expert system approach to land cover classification of semiarid to arid urban centers [J],Remote Sensing of Environment 77 (2001) 173-185
[173].E. Rossi&M. Kuitunen. RANKING OF HABITATS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF ECOLOGICAL IMPACT IN LAND USE PLANNING [J],Biological Conservation 77 (1996) 227-234
[174].Patricia H. Gude, Andrew J. Hansen, Ray Rasker, Bruce Maxwell. Rates and drivers of rural residential development in the Greater Yellowstone [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 77 (2006) 131-151
[175].Claude Raynaut. Societies and nature in the Sahel:ecological diversity and social dynamics [J],Global Environmental Change 11 (2001) 9-18
[176].UAN Bin, CHEN Jian-Fei, QIU Hong-Lie, M. J. M. ROMKENS, YANG xiao-Qi, JIANG Shi-Feng and LI Bi-Cheng. Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Driving Forces of Land Use Changes in Xiamen [J],Pedosphere 16(4):477-488,2006
[177].Marina Alberti, Derek Booth,Krishna Hill, Bekkah Coburn, Christina Avolio.. The impact of urban patterns on aquatic ecosystems:An empirical analysis in Puget lowland sub-basins [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 80 (2007) 345-361
[178].C Y Jim. The urban forestry programme in the heavily built — up milieu of Hong Kong [J],Cities,2000,17(4),271-283
[179].S.M. Owen, A.R. MacKenzie, R.GH. Bunce, H.E. Stewart, R.G. Donovan, G. Stark, C.N. Hewitt. Urban land classification and its uncertainties using principal component and cluster analyses:A case study for the UK West Midlands [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 78 (2006)311-321
[180].M. Margaret Bryant. Urban landscape conservation and the role of ecological greenways at local and metropolitan scales [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 76 (2006) 23-24
[181].Daniel G. Brown, Scott E. Page, Rick Riolo, William Rand. Agent-based and analytical modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of greenbelts[J],Environmental Modeling & Software 19 (2004) 1097-1109
[182].Rafal Drezewski, Leszek Siwik. Multi-objective Optimization Using Co-envolutionary Multi-agent System with Host-Parasite Mechanism[J],ICCS 2006, Part3, LNCS 3993,871-878,2006
[183].U.M. Mortberg, B. Balfors, W.C. Knol. Landscape ecological assessment:A tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning[J], Journal of Environmental Management 82 (2007) 457-470
[2].方美琪,张树人.复杂系统建模与仿真[M],北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005
[3]郭庆胜,杜晓初,闫卫阳.地理空间推理[M],北京：科学出版社,2006
[4].王万茂,韩桐魁.土地利用规划学[M],北京：中国农业出版社,2002
[5].刘耀彬.城市化与资源环境相互关系的理论与实证研究[M],北京：中国财政经济出版社,2007
[6].王正林,刘明.精通MATLAB7[M],北京：电子工业出版社,2006
[7].季郎超.非均衡的房地产市场[M],北京：经济管理出版社,2004
[8].刘卫东,邬明德,周力丰.城市地价评估理论探索与实践[M],北京：科学出版社,2007
[9].丹尼斯.迪帕斯奎尔,龙奋杰译.城市经济学与房地产市场[M],北京：经济科学出版社,2001
[10].Margaret H.Dunham著,郭崇慧,田凤占,靳晓明等译.数据挖掘教程[M],北京：清华大学出版社,2005
[11].阿瑟.奥沙利文,苏晓燕等译.城市经济学[M],北京：北京大学出版社,2008
[12].江斌,黄波,陆锋.GIs环境下的空间分析和地学视觉化[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2002
[13].周成虎,孙战利,谢一春.地理元胞自动机研究[M],北京：科学出版社,2001
[14].Paolo Giudici著,袁方,王煜,王丽娟等译.实用数据挖掘[M],北京：电子工业出版社,2004
[15].史培军等.土地利用／覆盖变化与生态安全响应机制[M],北京：科学出版社,2004
[16].杨贵庆,城市社会心理学[M],上海：同济大学出版社,2000
[17].刘卫东等.城市土地价格调查、评价及动态监测[M],北京：科学出版社,2002
[18].陈顺清.城市增长与土地增值[M],北京：科学出版社,2000
[19]李善民.西方经济学[M],广州：中山大学出版社,1996
[20].张泓铭.住宅经济学[M],上海：上海财经大学出版社,1998.
[21].张红.房地产经济学讲义[M],北京：中信出版社,2004
[22].Russells, Norvingp,姜哲等译.人工智能--一种现代方法[M],北京：邮电出版社,2004
[23].刘妙龙,陈鹏.城市空间扩散增长模型与模拟[J],人文地理,2004,19(2),6-11
[24].摆万奇.深圳市土地利用动态趋势分析[J],自然资源学报,2000,15(2),112-16
[25].金晓斌,殷少美,尹小宁,周寅康.城市住宅产业发展系统动力学研究一以南京市为例[J],南京大学学报,2004,40(6),760-768
[26].薛领,杨开忠.城市演化的多主体(multi agent)模型研究[J],系统工程理论与实践,2003(12),1-9
[27].梁进社,王曼.城市用地与人口的异速增长和相关经验研究[J],地理科学,2002,22(6),649-654
[28]帅江平.供求平衡状态下的城市自组织过程[J],地理学报,1996,51(4),374-383
[29].李后强,艾南山.关于城市演化的非线性动力学问题[J],经济地理,1996,16(1),65-70
[30].薛领,杨开忠,沈体雁.基于agent的建模一地理计算的新发展[J],地球科学进展,2004,19(2),305-311
[31].金小刚.基于Matlab的元胞自动机的仿真设计[J],计算机仿真,2002,19(4),27-30
[32].刘小平等.基于多智能体的土地利用模拟与规划模型[J],地理学报,2006,61(10),1101-1112
[33].刘小平,黎夏,叶嘉安.基于多智能体系统的空间决策行为及土地利用格局演变的模拟[J],中国科学D辑地球科学2006,36(11)：1027-10361027
[34].董昕.城市住宅区位及其影响因素分析[J],城市规划,2001,25(2),33-39
[35].郑静,许学强,陈浩光.广州市社会空间的因子生态再分析[J],地理研究,1995,14(2),15-26
[36].黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的元胞自动机及模拟复杂土地利用系统[J],地理研究,2005,24(1),19-27
[37].刘妙龙,陈鹏.基于细胞自动机与多主体系统理论的城市模拟原型模型[J],地理科学,2006,26(3),292-298
[38].谭遂,杨开忠,谭成文.基于自组织理论的两种城市空间结构动态模型比较[J],经济地理,2002,22(3),322-326
[39].谭永忠,吴次芳,牟永铭,王庆日,余振国.经济快速发展地区县级尺度土地利用空间格局变化模拟[J],农业工程学报,2006,22(12),72-77
[40].陈勇.空间博奕理论的应用与规划启示[J],城市规划汇刊,2002(2),62-64
[41].杨吾扬.区位论中的宏观和一般均衡.[J].经济地理,1989,9(3),161-165
[42].沈艳,郭兵,古天祥.粒子群优化算法及其与遗传算法的比较[J],电子科技大学学报,2005,34(5),696-699
[43].张学才,郭瑞雪.情景分析方法综述[J],理论月刊,2005(8)，,125-126
[44].杜德斌,崔裴,刘小玲.论住宅需求、居住选址与居住分异[J],经济地理,1996,16(1),82-90
[45].郑思齐,符育明,刘洪玉.利用排序多元Logit模型研究城市居民的居住区位选择[J],地理科学进展,2004,23(5),86-93
[46].郝寿义,安虎森.区域经济学[M],北京：经济科学出版社,2004
[47].张兵.我国城市住房空间分布重构[J],城市规划汇刊,1995(2),37-40
[48].段增强,张凤荣,孔祥斌.土地利用变化信息挖掘方法及其应用[J],农业工程学报,2005,21(12)：60-66
[49].李江,郭庆胜.武汉市土地利用结构演变及空间扩展研究[J],西北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(4)：77-80
[50].宋菊芳,杜宁睿,李志.武汉市流动人口空间聚集特征分析及对策研究[J],2001,17(2),29-31
[51].黎夏,叶嘉安.遗传算法和GIS结合进行空间优化决策[J],地理学报,2004,59(5),745-753
[52].罗平.地理特征元胞自动机及城市土地利用演化研究[博士论文],武汉：武汉大学,2004
[53].张勇强.城市空间发展自组织与城市规划[M],南京：东南大学出版社,2006
[54].黄光宇,杨培峰.自然生态资源评价分析与城市空间发展研究[J],城市规划,2001,25(1),67-71
[55].郑思齐,符育明,刘洪玉.城市居民对居住区位的偏好：支付意愿梯度模型的估计[J],地理科学进展,2005,24(1),97-104
[56].顾朝林,张晓明,刘晋媛,张从果.盐城开发空间区划及其思考[J],地理学报,2007,62(8)：787-798
[57].郑海霞,任学慧,张艳秋.县域土地利用/覆被变化对生态环境承载力影响评价—以江苏省建湖县为例[J],国土与自然资源研究,2007(3),44-45
[58].黄宇萍.土地利用过程中的生态环境评价体系[J],经济地理,2007,27(6),1004-1006
[59].倪九派,魏朝富,谢德体.土地利用的生态位及调控机制的研究[J],农业工程学报,2005,21 ZK,113-115
[60].张侠,葛向东,濮励杰,黄贤金,彭补拙.土地利用的经济生态位分析和耕地保护机制研究[J],自然资源学报,2002,17(6),677-683
[61].原华荣,周仲高,黄洪琳.土地承载力的规定和人口与环境的间断平衡[J],浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2007,37(5),114-123
[62].陈成忠,林振山,陈玲玲.生态足迹与生态承载力非线性动力学分析[J],生态学报,2006,26(11),3812-3816
[63].王筱明.生态位适宜度评价模型在退耕还林决策中的应用[J],农业工程学报,2007,23(8),113-116
[64].欧阳志云,王如松,符贵南.生态位适宜度模型及其在土地利用适宜性评价中的应用生态学报,1996,16(2),113-120
[65].张金前,韦素琼.生态位理论在我国生态城市研究中的应用[J],山西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,21(1),103-108
[66].房艳刚.城市地理空间系统的复杂性研究.[博士论文],长春：东北师范大学,2006
[67].胡春雷,肖 玲.生态位理论与方法在城市研究中的应用[J],地域研究与开发,2004,23(2),13-16
[68].谭许伟,王东明,张建军,李玉芳.沈阳城市可持续发展水平的生态足迹分析[J],环境保护科学,2008,34(1),47-49
[69].延军平,严艳.陕甘宁边区生态购买设计与操作途径[J],地理学报,2002,57(3),343-353
[70].代磊汪诚文刘仁志.宁波市土地生态适宜性评价分析[J],ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION,2006(12),40-42
[71].李景刚,何春阳,李晓兵.快速城市化地区自然／半自然景观空间生态风险评价研究一以北京为例[J],自然资源学报,2008,23(1),33-47
[72].曹新向,梁留科,丁圣彦.可持续发展定量评价的生态足迹分析方法[J],自然杂志,2003,25(6),335-339
[73].宋巍巍,刘年丰,谢鸿宇.基于综合生态足迹的项目生态环境影响分析研究[J],华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2005,22(1),85-89
[74].孟伟庆,李洪远,鞠美庭,吴贤斌,马春.基于市民需求的天津市城市绿色空间综合评价[J],城市环境与城市生态,2008,21(1),13-17
[75].符海月,李满春,毛亮,刘永学.基于生态足迹的土地利用规划生态成效定量分析一以河北省廊坊市为例[J],自然资源学报,2007,22(2),225-235
[76].俞艳,何建华.基于生态位适宜度的土地生态经济适宜性评价[J],农业工程学报,2008,24(1),124-128
[77].祁新华,毛蒋兴,程煜.基于生态位理论的城市空间优化策略研究一以增城市为例[J],规划师,2007,23(2),89-91
[78].张林波,李伟涛,王维,熊严军.基于GIS的城市最小生态用地空间分析模型研究一以深圳市为例[J],自然资源学报,2008,23(1),69-78
[79].郭林,张浩,王祥荣.广东佛山市土地利用格局与生态承载力相关性研究[J],中国生态农业学报,2007,15(5),193-196
[80].何骏.大连市城市生产生活消费的生态足迹分析[J],沈阳师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,25(1),99-103
[81].宗跃光,徐宏彦,汤艳冰,陈红春.城市生态系统服务功能的价值结构分析[J],城市环境与城市生态,1999,12(4),19-22
[82].李晓燕,陈红.城市生态交通规划的理论框架[J],长安大学学报(自然科学版),2006,26(1),79-82
[83].董家华,包存宽,黄鹤,舒廷飞.土地生态适宜性分析在城市规划环境影响评价中的应用[J],长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(6),698-702
[84].俞艳,何建华,袁艳斌.土地生态经济适宜性评价模型研究[J],武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2008,33(3),273-276
[85].倪九派,魏朝富,谢德体.土地利用的生态位及调控机制的研究[J],农业工程学报,2005,21(增刊),113-115
[86].白光润,朱海森.中国大陆人口移动机制与调控对策[J],人文地理,1999,9
[87].荀文会,刘友兆,王雨晴.生态位理论视阈中的土地可持续利用研究一以江苏省昆山市为例[J],农村经济,2006(9),19-22
[88].秦建成,高明.山地城镇土地利用的经济生态位分析及持续发展一以重庆市为例[J],山地学报,2003,21(6),702-706
[89].王汉花,刘艳芳.基于生态位与约束CA的土地资源优化配置模型研究一以武汉市黄陂区为例[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(2),97-102
[90].祁新华,毛蒋兴,程煜.基于生态位理论的城市空间优化策略研究一以增城市为例[J],规划师,2007,23(2),89-91
[91].段瑞娟,郝晋珉,张洁瑕.北京区位土地利用与生态服务价值变化研究[J],农业工程学报,2006,22(9),21-28
[92].刘小平,黎夏,彭晓鹃.“生态位”元胞自动机在土地可持续规划模型中的应用[J],生态学报,2007,27(6),2392-2402
[93].王万茂,张颖.土地整理与可持续发展[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2004,14(1),13-18
[94].温海珍,贾生华.住宅的特征与特征的价格一基于特征价格模型的分析[J],浙江大学学报(工学版),2004,38(10),1338-1349
[95].帅友良.中国人口城市化对城镇住宅市场需求的影响[J],统计研究,2005(9),75-79
[96].丁成日.中国城市土地利用,房地产发展,城市政策[J],城市发展研究,2003,10(5),58-63
[97].陈明,朱妍.享乐定价法在房地产中的应用研究[J],延边大学学报(社会科学版),2005,38(1),56-61
[98].丁成日.土地政策和城市住房发展[J],城市发展研究,2002,9(2),61-66
[99].刘荣霞等.土地利用结构优化方法述评[J],北京大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(4),655-662
[100].丁成目.土地价值与城市增长[J],城市发展研究,2002,9(6),48-53
[101].刘艳芳,李兴林,龚红波.基于遗传算法的土地利用结构优化研究[J],武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2005,30(4),288-292
[102].崔和瑞,赵黎明,张晋国.县域土地资源可持续利用系统动态仿真决策模型研究[J], 西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2003,3(1),1107-110
[103].王进,李准,曹升元.基于博弈论的住宅开发商行为决策研究[J],建筑经济,2007,(6),60-63
[104].彭诩,杜宁睿,刘云.大城市居住用地扩展的多主体模型研究[J],武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2007,32(6),548-551
[105].何春阳,史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠,李晓兵,李京,李月臣,李景刚.基于系统动力学模 型和元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模型研究[J],中国科学D辑,2005,35(5),464-473
[106].丁成日.城市土地需求分析[J],国外城市规划,2005,20(4),19-25
[107].刘盛和.城市土地利用扩展的空间模式与动力机制[J],地理科学进展,2002,21(1),43-50
[108].林炳耀.城市空间形态的计量方法及其评价[J],城市规划汇刊,1998(3),42-46
[109].王磊.城市产业结构调整与城市空间结构演化--从武汉市为例[J],城市规划汇刊,2001(3),55-58
[110].杨桂山.长江三角洲近50年耕地数量变化的过程与驱动机制研究[J],自然资源学报,2001,16(2),121-127
[111].黄奕龙,王仰麟,卜心国,杨 磊.城市土地利用综合效益评价--城际比较[J],热带地理,2006,26(2),146-150
[112].周亦平.我国房地产现状原因分析、发展趋势与政策走势判断[J],特区经济,2006(11),351-353
[113].朱春全.生态位态势理论与扩充假说[J],生态学报,1997,17(3),324-332
[114].赵雷,徐建刚.情景规划理念在扬中市规划中的应用研究[J]城乡规划,2008,26(7),73-76
[115].黎夏,叶嘉安.基于元胞自动机的城市发展密度模拟[J],地理科学,2006,26(2),165-172
[116].雷羡梅.试论城市经济的生态位[J],中国城市经济,2004,2,20-23
[117].刘 永,郭怀成,王丽婧,戴永立,张秀敏,贺 彬.环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究[J],环境科学研究,2005,18(3),82-86
[118].陶海燕,黎夏,陈晓翔,刘小平.基于多智能体的地理空间分异现象模拟—以城市居住空间演变为例[J],地理学报,2007,62(6),579-588
[119].金丽国,区域主体与空间经济自组织,[M],上海人民出版社,2007
[120].曹嵘.城市居住区位研究--以上海市中心城区为例.[硕士论文]上海：上海师范大学,2003
[121].陶海燕,潘茂林,黎夏,陈晓翔.城市居住空间分异仿真模型框架研究[J],系统仿真学报,2007,19(21),5086-5092
[122].张京祥,罗震东,何建颐.体制转型与空间重构[M],东南大学出版社,2007
[123].金丽国,区域主体与空间经济自组织,[M],上海人民出版社,2007
[124].A.D. McDonald,L.R. Little, R. Gray, E. Fulton, K.J. Sainsbury, V.D. Lyne. An agent-based modelling approach to evaluation of multiple-use management strategies for coastal marine ecosystems [J],Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 78 (2008) 401-411,
[125]Pearman AD. Scenario construction for transportation planning [J]. Transportation Planning and Technology,1988, (7):73-85.
[126]Kahn J,Wiener A J. The year 2000:a framework for speculation on the next 33 years[M].New York:MacMillan Press,1967.
[127]FaheyL, Randal R M. Learning from the future:competitive foresightscenarios[M]. New York:Wiley,1998.52-55.
[128]Antona, M., Bommel, F., Bousquet, F., Page, C., Interactions and orga-nization in ecosystem management:the use of multi-agent systems to simulate incentive environmental policies. In: Urban, C., (Ed.),Agent-based Simulation 3, SCS-European Publishing House, Passau,pp,2002.85-92.
[129]Doran, J.,2001. Intervening to achieve co-operative ecosystem management: towards an agent based model. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 4(2) http://wwwsocsurreyacuk/JASSS/4/2/4.html.,2001
[130]Ferrand, N., Modelling and supporting multi-actor planning usingmulti-agents systems, Third NCGIA Conference on GIS and Environmental Modelling, Santa Barbara. 1996.
[131]Gimblett, H.. Integrating geographic information systems and agentbased modeling techniques for simulating social and ecological processes, Santa Fe Institute Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, Oxford, Oxford University Press.2001
[132]Otter, H.,2000. Complex adaptive land use systems:an interdisciplinary approach with agent-based model. PhD Thesis. University of Twente.
[133]Parker, C., Manson, S., Janssen, M., Hoffmann, M., Deadman, P., 2003.Multi-agent system models for the simulation of land-use and landcover change:a review. Forthcoming, Annals of the Association of American Geographers 93(2).
[134]Sengupta, R., Bennet, D.,2003. Agent-based modelling environment for spatial decision support. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 17(2),157-180.
[135]Torrens, P.,2003. Cellular automata and multi-agent systems as planning support tools. In:Geertman, S., Stillwell, J. (Eds.), Planning Support Systems in Practice. Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, Berlin, pp.206-222.
[136]Deadman, P., Gimblett, R.,1994. A role for goal-oriented autonomous agents in modeling people-environment interactions in forest recreation. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 20(8),121-133.
[137]Itami, R.M., Gimblett, H.R.,2000. Intelligent recreation agents in a virtual gis world. Complexity International 8.
[138]Benenson, I.,1998. Multi-agent simulations of residential dynamics in the city. Computers Environment and Urban Systems 22,25-42.
[139]Quigley J M. Housing demand in the short run:analysis of polytomous choice. Expl Econ Res,1976, (3):76-102
[140]McFadden D. Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative choice Behavior. In: Zarembka P, ed. Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press,1974.105-142
[141]McFadden D. Modeling the choice of residential location in spatial interaction theory and planning models. In:Karlqvist A,Lundqvist L, Snickars F, et al. eds. Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, North Holland Amsterdam,1978.75-96
[142]Arend Ligtenberg,Arnold K Bregt,Ronvan Lammern, Multi-actor-based land use modelling:spatial planning using agents. Landscape and planning,2002,56:21-33
[143]Arend Ligtenberga,*, Monica Wachowicza, Arnold K. Bregta, Adrie Beulensb, Dirk L. Kettenisb, A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning. Journal of Environmental Management,2004,72:43-55
[144]Itzhak Benenson,Karel Martens,Slava Birfir.Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 32 (2008) 431-439
[145]Jean-Christophe Castellaa,Suan Pheng Kamb, Dang Dinh Quangc, Peter H. Verburgd, Chu Thai Hoanhb.Combining top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches of land use/cover change to support public policies:Application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam.Land Use Policy.2007,24:531-545
[146].Shu-Li Huangag, Hsiao-Yin Laib, Chia-Lun Lee. Energy hierarchy and urban landscape system [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 53 (2001) 145-161
[147].C.Y. Jim,Wendy Y. Chen. Impacts of urban environmental elements on residential housing prices in Guangzhou (China) [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 78 (2006) 422-434
[148].Jacqueline Geoghegan, Lisa A. Wainger, Nancy E. Bockstael. Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework:an ecological economics analysis using GIS [J],Ecological Economics 23 (1997) 251-264
[149].Jerry Johnson, Bruce Maxwell. The role of the Conservation Reserve Program in controlling rural residential development [J],Journal of Rural Studies 17 (2001) 323-332
[150].Johan Colding.'Ecological land-use complementation' for building resilience in urban ecosystems [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 81 (2007) 46-55
[151].Yeqiao Wang,Xinsheng Zhang. A dynamic modeling effects approach to simulating socioeconomic on landscape changes[J],Ecological Modelling 140 (2001) 141-162
[152].Perry Pei-Ju Yang,Ong Boon Lay. Applying ecosystem concepts to the planning of industrial areas:a case study of Singapore's Jurong Island [J],Journal of Cleaner Production 12 (2004)1011-1023
[153].Perry Pei-Ju Yang,Ong Boon Lay. Applying ecosystem concepts to the planning of industrial areas:a case study of Singapore's Jurong Island [J],Journal of Cleaner Production 12(2004)1011-1023
[154].M.L. Collin, A.J. Melloul. Assessing groundwater vulnerability to pollution to promote sustainable urban and rural development [J],Journal of Cleaner Production 11 (2003) 727-736
[155].Makoto Yokohari, Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Takashi Watanabe, Shigehiro Yokota. Beyond greenbelts and zoning:A new planning concept for the environment of Asian mega-cities [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 47 (2000) 159-171
[156].Christian G Raumann, Mary E. Cablk. Change in the forested and developed landscape of the Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada, USA,1940-2002 [J],Forest Ecology and Management 255 (2008) 3424-3439
[157].Janez Pirnat. Conservation and management of forest patches and corridors in suburban landscapes [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 52 (2000) 135-143
[158].Rachel C. Davey, Thomas Cochrane,Christopher Gidlow,Jon Fairburn, Graham Smith. Design of a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial:Ecological approach to increasing physical activity in an urban community [J],Contemporary Clinical Trials xxx (2008)xxx-xxx
[159].Claire Freeman,Oliver Buck. Development of an for urban ecological mapping methodology areas in New Zealand [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 63 (2003) 161-173
[160].K.E.Heckmann, P.N. Manley, M.D. Schlesinger. Ecological integrity of remnant montane forests along an urban gradient in the Sierra Nevada [J],Forest Ecology and Management 255 (2008) 2453-2466
[161].Johan Colding. Ecological land-use complementation' for building resilience in urban ecosystems [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 81 (2007) 46-55
[162].Lubos Matejicek, Libuse Benesova, Jaroslav Tonika. Ecological modelling of nitrate pollution in small river basins by spreadsheets and GIS [J],Ecological Modelling.170 (2003) 245-263
[163].Haiyan Chen, S. Ganesan, Beisi Jia. Environmental challenges of post-reform housing development in Beijing [J],Habitat International 29 (2005) 571-589
[164].D.C. Howard, J.W. Watkins, R.T. Clarke, C.L. Barnett, GJ. Stark. Estimating the extent and change in Broad Habitats in Great Britain [J] Journal of Environmental Management 67 (2003) 219-227
[165].Nicholas S.G Williams, Mark J. McDonnell, Emma J. Seager. Factors influencing the loss of an endangered ecosystem in an urbanising landscape:a case grasslands from Melbourne study of native Australia [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 71 (2005) 35-49
[166].Rebecca L. Eaton, Geoffrey P. Hammond, Jane Laurie. Footprints on the landscape: An environmental appraisal of urban and rural living in the developed world [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 83 (2007) 13-28
[167].Edward A. Cook. Landscape structure indices for assessing urban ecological networks [J], Landscape and Urban Planning 58 (2002) 269-280
[168].Gretchen C. Daily. Management objectives for the protection of ecosystem services [J],Environmental Science&Policy 3 (2000) 333-339
[169].Paul Irving, Ian Moncrieff. Managing the environmental impacts of land transport: integrating environmental analysis with urban planning [J],Science of the Total Environment 334-335 (2004) 47-59
[170]Jamie Tratalos, Richard A. Fuller,Philip H. Warren, Richard G. Davies, Kevin J. Gaston. Urban form, biodiversity potential and ecosystem services [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 83 (2007) 308-317
[171].Erle C. Ellis,Hongqing Wang, Hong Sheng Xiao.... Measuring long-term ecological changes in densely populated landscapes using current and historical high resolution imagery [J],Remote Sensing of Environment 100 (2006) 457-473
[172].William L. Stefanov, Michael S. Ramsey, Philip R. Christensen. Monitoring urban land cover change:An expert system approach to land cover classification of semiarid to arid urban centers [J],Remote Sensing of Environment 77 (2001) 173-185
[173].E. Rossi&M. Kuitunen. RANKING OF HABITATS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF ECOLOGICAL IMPACT IN LAND USE PLANNING [J],Biological Conservation 77 (1996) 227-234
[174].Patricia H. Gude, Andrew J. Hansen, Ray Rasker, Bruce Maxwell. Rates and drivers of rural residential development in the Greater Yellowstone [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 77 (2006) 131-151
[175].Claude Raynaut. Societies and nature in the Sahel:ecological diversity and social dynamics [J],Global Environmental Change 11 (2001) 9-18
[176].UAN Bin, CHEN Jian-Fei, QIU Hong-Lie, M. J. M. ROMKENS, YANG xiao-Qi, JIANG Shi-Feng and LI Bi-Cheng. Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Driving Forces of Land Use Changes in Xiamen [J],Pedosphere 16(4):477-488,2006
[177].Marina Alberti, Derek Booth,Krishna Hill, Bekkah Coburn, Christina Avolio.. The impact of urban patterns on aquatic ecosystems:An empirical analysis in Puget lowland sub-basins [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 80 (2007) 345-361
[178].C Y Jim. The urban forestry programme in the heavily built — up milieu of Hong Kong [J],Cities,2000,17(4),271-283
[179].S.M. Owen, A.R. MacKenzie, R.GH. Bunce, H.E. Stewart, R.G. Donovan, G. Stark, C.N. Hewitt. Urban land classification and its uncertainties using principal component and cluster analyses:A case study for the UK West Midlands [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 78 (2006)311-321
[180].M. Margaret Bryant. Urban landscape conservation and the role of ecological greenways at local and metropolitan scales [J],Landscape and Urban Planning 76 (2006) 23-24
[181].Daniel G. Brown, Scott E. Page, Rick Riolo, William Rand. Agent-based and analytical modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of greenbelts[J],Environmental Modeling & Software 19 (2004) 1097-1109
[182].Rafal Drezewski, Leszek Siwik. Multi-objective Optimization Using Co-envolutionary Multi-agent System with Host-Parasite Mechanism[J],ICCS 2006, Part3, LNCS 3993,871-878,2006
[183].U.M. Mortberg, B. Balfors, W.C. Knol. Landscape ecological assessment:A tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning[J], Journal of Environmental Management 82 (2007) 457-470
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |