收入分配、市场规模与工业化
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摘要
对于收入分配问题的重点关注已有近百年的历史。尤其自20世纪50年代以来,对于收入分配不平等与经济发展关系的研究,成为经济学界的一个热点问题。自20世纪80年代中期,伴随新增长理论的兴起,经济学界对收入分配不平等与经济发展关系的研究又进一步深入,并重点关注收入分配对经济发展的影响。
墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼(Murphy、Shlefer和Vishny,1989b)提出了收入分配通过市场规模影响工业化的相关理论,即由于需求结构的不同,收入分配的均等程度影响工业化的市场规模,进而影响工业化的发展水平。
墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼提出的收入分配通过市场规模影响工业化与经济发展的机制,对于近现代研究收入分配影响经济发展的相关理论,提供了有益的补充与研究思路。另外,墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼从工业化产品市场需求的角度提出的工业化理论,不仅弥补了传统工业化理论的不足,同时对于工业化发展形成一定规模和基础的发展中国家,工业化的持续与结构升级,具有重要的理论与实践意义。
改革开放三十年来,中国经济一直保持着快速增长,伴随经济的高速增长,居民收入差距却在不断扩大。经济的高速增长与收入不均等持续扩大的事实,吸引国内外学者的广泛关注与研究。
根据墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼工业化的相关理论,对于我国工业化的进程与经济发展来说,其市场规模机制更具有解释力。因为我国正处于工业化和城市化加快的阶段,国内经济由原来的短缺经济,转化为目前的过剩经济,出现了有效需求不足的问题。而国内需求是我国经济持续发展的重要基础,扩大内需是我国现阶段经济政策的重点,而需求的扩大又依赖于收入水平的提高和收入分配的改变。因此在我国收入差距持续扩大的前提下,如何调整收入结构与收入分配,应该是扩大内需的重要内容,也是促进我国经济进一步发展的关键因素。
论文借鉴现有的理论文献和实证研究方法,主要针对墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼“收入分配、市场规模与工业化”的相关理论,通过我国改革开放后,全国城乡的时间序列数据、主要省份的城乡截面数据与面板数据,进行了实证的研究与分析,基本验证了墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼收入分配影响工业化的相关理论。
基于面板数据的实证检验可以看出,随着我国经济的发展,居民收入水平的提高,收入分配对于工业化产品的消费,工业化的市场规模,在我国城镇与农村地区均存在负面影响：首先,对于基础的工业化产品家庭耐用消费品,城镇居民作为主要的消费群体,收入分配的均等程度会直接影响相关产品的市场规模,尤其是作为居民消费与偏好相近的基础耐用消费品,这与墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼理论所提出的“中等收入阶层是工业化产品的天然消费者”非常相符；其次,作为新兴的工业化产品或高档耐用消费品的消费,收入不均等对于产品的市场规模可能产生正向影响,这也说明在不同的收入水平下,创新产品的消费需要“一定的不均等去启动”；最后,从城乡分类的实证结果可以看出,不仅收入分配对于农村地区工业品的市场规模存在负面影响,城乡地区间的收入差距也会造成农村地区工业品消费的降低,分析其原因主要在于我国农村地区收入水平偏低,工业品的消费还面临基本收入水平的制约。因此,缩小城乡之间的收入差距,也是我国工业化与经济发展过程中,需要重点关注的问题。
Income distribution has concerned every nation and its people for almost one hundred year. Especially since 1950s, the relation between income distribution and economic growth has become a topic subject of research within the academic circle. With the development of the new growth theory, economists have made intensive studies on the relation between income distribution and economic growth, giving their concern for the impacts of income distribution on the economic growth.
Murphy, Shlefer & Vishny(1989b) worked that how demands patterns under inequality affect the process of industrialization. Due to different demands patterns for goods, the degree on the income equality would affect the market size of manufactures, therefore affect the development of industrialization.
Murphy, Shlefer & Vishny's study presents us a new approach to analyze the effect of income distribution on the economic growth. In addition, from the perspective of the market demands of industrialized products, Murphy et.al. proposed the theory of the development of industrialization which not only supplemented the traditional theories in this field, but also became an important guideline for the developing countries on their sustainable development of industrialization and industrial structure upgrading.
With 30 years of economic reform and opening-up, China's economy has maintained rapid growth. However, the economic growth is accompanied by the increasing income gap, which gets scholars great concerns. Consequently, literatures devoted to issues on economic growth and income distribution have been increasing.
MSV theory could provide a strong explanation regarding how China's income distribution affects its economic growth. China is in the process of developing its industrialization and accelerating the urbanization and its domestic economy is transforming from the initial economy of shortage to the current excess economy, thus causing the insufficient effective demand. On one hand, domestic demand is the foundation of the economic sustainable development, and therefore, to propel domestic demand is the focus of the current economic policy. On the other hand, the increase of domestic demand depends on the improvement of people's income level and income distribution. Eventually, how to adjust the income distribution should be the main content discussed in the policy of expanding the domestic demand, and a key factor promoting further development of our economy.
Based on the China's rural and urban time series data as well as major provincial cross-sectional data and panel data, we give an empirical study to test MSV theory. Our finding supports MSV theory on how income distribution affects the development of industrialization.
Via empirical studies on the panel data, we find that with the development of China's economy and the improvement of people's income level, the impact of income inequality on the consumption of the industrialized products and the market size will be negative both rural and urban areas in China.
First, regarding the major industrialized products, like durable consumer goods, the degree of equality on income distribution can directly affect the market size of consumption in urban areas. This is especially true for the basic consumer durable good which conforms to MSV theory statement of "since the middle class are the natural consumer of manufactured goods".
Second, income inequality would be positively influence the market size of the newly industrialized products or upscale consumer durables, which shows that the consumption of innovative products may need the income disparity to some degree.
Finally, with the comparison of the empirical results of rural and urban areas, we conclude that the rural income inequality decreases the market size of the industrialized products, but the income divergence to the urban areas also. The main reason is that compared with urban income level, the rural income is still very low, and its consumption of the industrialized products is still limited by income constraint. Consequently, how to reduce the income disparity between rural and urban areas also deserves our consideration.
墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼(Murphy、Shlefer和Vishny,1989b)提出了收入分配通过市场规模影响工业化的相关理论,即由于需求结构的不同,收入分配的均等程度影响工业化的市场规模,进而影响工业化的发展水平。
墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼提出的收入分配通过市场规模影响工业化与经济发展的机制,对于近现代研究收入分配影响经济发展的相关理论,提供了有益的补充与研究思路。另外,墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼从工业化产品市场需求的角度提出的工业化理论,不仅弥补了传统工业化理论的不足,同时对于工业化发展形成一定规模和基础的发展中国家,工业化的持续与结构升级,具有重要的理论与实践意义。
改革开放三十年来,中国经济一直保持着快速增长,伴随经济的高速增长,居民收入差距却在不断扩大。经济的高速增长与收入不均等持续扩大的事实,吸引国内外学者的广泛关注与研究。
根据墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼工业化的相关理论,对于我国工业化的进程与经济发展来说,其市场规模机制更具有解释力。因为我国正处于工业化和城市化加快的阶段,国内经济由原来的短缺经济,转化为目前的过剩经济,出现了有效需求不足的问题。而国内需求是我国经济持续发展的重要基础,扩大内需是我国现阶段经济政策的重点,而需求的扩大又依赖于收入水平的提高和收入分配的改变。因此在我国收入差距持续扩大的前提下,如何调整收入结构与收入分配,应该是扩大内需的重要内容,也是促进我国经济进一步发展的关键因素。
论文借鉴现有的理论文献和实证研究方法,主要针对墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼“收入分配、市场规模与工业化”的相关理论,通过我国改革开放后,全国城乡的时间序列数据、主要省份的城乡截面数据与面板数据,进行了实证的研究与分析,基本验证了墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼收入分配影响工业化的相关理论。
基于面板数据的实证检验可以看出,随着我国经济的发展,居民收入水平的提高,收入分配对于工业化产品的消费,工业化的市场规模,在我国城镇与农村地区均存在负面影响：首先,对于基础的工业化产品家庭耐用消费品,城镇居民作为主要的消费群体,收入分配的均等程度会直接影响相关产品的市场规模,尤其是作为居民消费与偏好相近的基础耐用消费品,这与墨菲、斯莱弗和威塞尼理论所提出的“中等收入阶层是工业化产品的天然消费者”非常相符；其次,作为新兴的工业化产品或高档耐用消费品的消费,收入不均等对于产品的市场规模可能产生正向影响,这也说明在不同的收入水平下,创新产品的消费需要“一定的不均等去启动”；最后,从城乡分类的实证结果可以看出,不仅收入分配对于农村地区工业品的市场规模存在负面影响,城乡地区间的收入差距也会造成农村地区工业品消费的降低,分析其原因主要在于我国农村地区收入水平偏低,工业品的消费还面临基本收入水平的制约。因此,缩小城乡之间的收入差距,也是我国工业化与经济发展过程中,需要重点关注的问题。
Income distribution has concerned every nation and its people for almost one hundred year. Especially since 1950s, the relation between income distribution and economic growth has become a topic subject of research within the academic circle. With the development of the new growth theory, economists have made intensive studies on the relation between income distribution and economic growth, giving their concern for the impacts of income distribution on the economic growth.
Murphy, Shlefer & Vishny(1989b) worked that how demands patterns under inequality affect the process of industrialization. Due to different demands patterns for goods, the degree on the income equality would affect the market size of manufactures, therefore affect the development of industrialization.
Murphy, Shlefer & Vishny's study presents us a new approach to analyze the effect of income distribution on the economic growth. In addition, from the perspective of the market demands of industrialized products, Murphy et.al. proposed the theory of the development of industrialization which not only supplemented the traditional theories in this field, but also became an important guideline for the developing countries on their sustainable development of industrialization and industrial structure upgrading.
With 30 years of economic reform and opening-up, China's economy has maintained rapid growth. However, the economic growth is accompanied by the increasing income gap, which gets scholars great concerns. Consequently, literatures devoted to issues on economic growth and income distribution have been increasing.
MSV theory could provide a strong explanation regarding how China's income distribution affects its economic growth. China is in the process of developing its industrialization and accelerating the urbanization and its domestic economy is transforming from the initial economy of shortage to the current excess economy, thus causing the insufficient effective demand. On one hand, domestic demand is the foundation of the economic sustainable development, and therefore, to propel domestic demand is the focus of the current economic policy. On the other hand, the increase of domestic demand depends on the improvement of people's income level and income distribution. Eventually, how to adjust the income distribution should be the main content discussed in the policy of expanding the domestic demand, and a key factor promoting further development of our economy.
Based on the China's rural and urban time series data as well as major provincial cross-sectional data and panel data, we give an empirical study to test MSV theory. Our finding supports MSV theory on how income distribution affects the development of industrialization.
Via empirical studies on the panel data, we find that with the development of China's economy and the improvement of people's income level, the impact of income inequality on the consumption of the industrialized products and the market size will be negative both rural and urban areas in China.
First, regarding the major industrialized products, like durable consumer goods, the degree of equality on income distribution can directly affect the market size of consumption in urban areas. This is especially true for the basic consumer durable good which conforms to MSV theory statement of "since the middle class are the natural consumer of manufactured goods".
Second, income inequality would be positively influence the market size of the newly industrialized products or upscale consumer durables, which shows that the consumption of innovative products may need the income disparity to some degree.
Finally, with the comparison of the empirical results of rural and urban areas, we conclude that the rural income inequality decreases the market size of the industrialized products, but the income divergence to the urban areas also. The main reason is that compared with urban income level, the rural income is still very low, and its consumption of the industrialized products is still limited by income constraint. Consequently, how to reduce the income disparity between rural and urban areas also deserves our consideration.
引文
①中国国家统计局：《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》,中国统计出版社,2010年版。
①王少国,李伟：《再分配机制对城镇居民收入差距调节作用的实证分析》,《经济纵横》,2009年第3期,第51-53页。
②中国国家统计局：《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》,中国统计出版社,2010年版。
①中国国家统计局：《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》,中国统计出版社,2010年版。
①《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》(第2卷),经济科学出版社,1992年版,第861页。
②刘葆金：《发展经济学》,中国农业出版社,2000年版,第300页。
①西蒙·库兹涅茨：《现代经济增长》,北京经济学院出版社,1989年版。
①杰拉尔德.迈耶、达德利.西尔斯：《发展经济学的先驱》,经济科学出版社,1988年版,第212-214页。
① Keefer和Knack(1995)在其论文中,主要实证研究民主和政治不稳定对于经济增长的影响,并没有具体展示对于MSV的实证研究,仅对实证结果进行了简单的说明。
①参见万广华.不平等的度量与分解[J].经济学(季刊),2008(10)：347-368
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②中国国家统计局：《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》,中国统计出版社,2010年版。
①中国国家统计局：《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》,中国统计出版社,2010年版。
①《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》(第2卷),经济科学出版社,1992年版,第861页。
②刘葆金：《发展经济学》,中国农业出版社,2000年版,第300页。
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① Keefer和Knack(1995)在其论文中,主要实证研究民主和政治不稳定对于经济增长的影响,并没有具体展示对于MSV的实证研究,仅对实证结果进行了简单的说明。
①参见万广华.不平等的度量与分解[J].经济学(季刊),2008(10)：347-368
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