复杂产品研发的技术风险分析与应用研究
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摘要
随着信息技术的飞速发展和全球经济一体化步伐的加快，企业竞争日益激烈。企业间的竞争最终归结为新产品之间的竞争。产品创新已经成为企业创新的核心任务。由于复杂产品的研发具有投资高、技术复杂、周期长、风险高的特点。为了确保产品研发的成功，必须进行风险管理，包括风险分析和控制。
技术风险是复杂产品的主要风险之一。目前技术风险分析绝大多数属于静态分析法，即用于产品研发项目启动前的风险预测和评估，而风险管理将伴随着复杂产品研发的整个过程，成为研发项目管理的重要组成部分。目前针对复杂产品研发技术风险的研究，缺乏对技术风险的准确定义、技术风险识别和评估模型的研究。本文以国家“十五”高技术研究发展计划(863计划)中的重大攻关项目——100nm分辨率193nmArF准分子激光器步进扫描投影光刻机研制为研究应用背景，建立复杂产品研发技术风险管理体系结构、技术风险识别模型，并应用贝叶斯网络方法，建立产品研发的技术风险评估模型。论文主要工作包括：
从分析和控制产品研发技术风险的角度，定义产品研发技术风险。复杂产品研发技术风险包括产品技术风险和研发过程技术风险。产品结构的复杂性是导致产品技术风险的主要因素；研发过程的无序性是造成研发过程技术风险的主要因素。产品研发的技术风险管理贯穿于整个研发过程中，是一个与产品研发过程相匹配的，从高层次到低层次、循序渐进的动态过程，并据此建立了复杂产品研发的技术风险管理体系结构。在功能层次上，包括技术风险识别、技术风险评估、制定风险处理计划、技术风险跟踪、技术风险控制。在过程层次上包括总体系统级、子系统级、部件级、工艺级和制造级等层次的技术风险管理过程。
在进行产品技术风险识别时，通过分析产品可能出现的不满足预计功能的行为，即产品功能缺陷，分析产品潜在的技术风险事件，通过产品结构的分解，寻找导致产品技术风险因素。将产品技术风险事件和产品结构上的技术风险因素进行关联，构成了基于产品结构的复杂产品技术风险识别模型。
在进行研发过程技术风险识别时，从产品研发过程管理的角度，进行研发过程技术风险分析。通过研发活动的分解寻找产品活动内的技术风险因素；产品研发的信息需求确定了研发活动之间的关联关系。通过分析研发活动间的各种关系，找出活动间的技术风险因素。活动内的技术风险识别和活动间的技术风险识别，构成了基于活动的复杂产品研发过程技术风险识别模型。
通过分析产品环境或过程环境而产生的风险事件对产品研发的影响，利用贝叶斯网络具有结合专家知识进行不确定信息的推理功能，将基于产品结构的复杂产品技术风险识别模型和基于活动的复杂产品研发过程技术风险识别模型转换成基于贝叶斯网络的技术风险评估模型，并提出了基于产品技术风险和研发过程技术风险评估算法。通过敏感性分析，寻找对技术风险敏感的风险因素，为进一步进行风险控制提供决策依据。
以高精度光刻机产品研发为应用背景，通过实例分析和应用对文中所提出的技术风险理论、方法和技术进行验证。
最后，对需要进一步研究的工作进行了展望。
With the quick development of information technology and acceleration of economic globalization, enterprises' competition is increasingly vigorous. The competition of enterprises comes down to the strife of their new products. Product innovation has already become the nucleus tasks of enterprises. Because the development of the large-scale complicated innovated products has traits: high investment, complex techniques, long development cycle and high risk, the technique management of the risk including analysis, assessment and control of risk must be enforced in order to development of the new products is successful.The technical risk is the one of the main risks during the development of large-scale complicated innovated products. The current technical risk analysis mostly belongs to the static analysis methods that are used for risk forecast or its assessment before the startup of product development. But the technical risk management is a process that is concurrent to the development process and has already become the important part of the project management. The research on the technical risk of product development is lack of the exact definition and research on risk analysis and assessment. Backgrounded as the 863 Project of the Tenth Five period "100 run stepping and scanning lithographic machine with 193 nm ArF quasimolecule laser" which is supported by the State Ministry of Science and Technology, the model of the technical risk analysis is established, and the model of technical risk assessment is set up based on Bayesian Network.The following are the main works in this paper:View from the analysis and control the technical risk of product development, the technical risk is defined and analytical model based on product configuration dimension and developing process dimension is established. Product complicacy mainly results in technical risk on product configuration dimension; inordinance of developing process is the main causes of technical risk on the developing process dimension. The architecture of technical risk management during product developing is formed based on two-dimension analytical model.
When technical risk on the product configuration dimension is analyzed, technical risk events are found by construing product unexpected behavior that is unsatisfied with its functions, i.e. product function faults. The technical risk factors are seeked by decomposing the product structure. The analytical model of product technical risk on the product configuration dimension is constituted by associating its technical risk events are with its risk factors.
Product technical risk, that is a process matched with product developing process, is gradually analyzed from simple to detail, from high layers to lower layers. The technical risk is analyzed on the system level in the beginning of the product developing; with the further development of the product, the technical risk can be analyzed on sub-system level, assembly level, technics level or manufacturing level.
When technical risk on developing process dimension is analyzed, technical risk of developing process is analyzed from the view of managing the developing process. The technical risk factors inside each developing activity are searched by it. The interrelation among developing activities depends on the requirements of product developing information, so the technical risk factors among them are raked by analyzing the interrelation among them. The technical risk inside and among developing activities compose the analytical model of the technical risk on developing process dimension.
The product behaviors or the ones of developing process and product environments or the ones of developing process interact and produce the risk events. Their risk severities depend on technical risk factors and environments. The analytical model of technical risk on the product configuration dimension and the one on developing process dimension are transformed into technical risk assessment model based on Bayesian Network because of its reasoning function of uncertain information combined with experts' knowledge. The related arithmetic on two dimensions is put forward. The sensitive factors of the technical risk, which technical risk is controlled according as, will be found by sensitivity analysis.
As background of development of the high-precision stepping and scanning lithographic machine whose developing experience the developers are lack of, the technical risk theories, methods, techniques which are brought forward in this dissertation, are verified by the case study and applying of them into it.
In the finality, the problems requiring further studies are discussed.
技术风险是复杂产品的主要风险之一。目前技术风险分析绝大多数属于静态分析法，即用于产品研发项目启动前的风险预测和评估，而风险管理将伴随着复杂产品研发的整个过程，成为研发项目管理的重要组成部分。目前针对复杂产品研发技术风险的研究，缺乏对技术风险的准确定义、技术风险识别和评估模型的研究。本文以国家“十五”高技术研究发展计划(863计划)中的重大攻关项目——100nm分辨率193nmArF准分子激光器步进扫描投影光刻机研制为研究应用背景，建立复杂产品研发技术风险管理体系结构、技术风险识别模型，并应用贝叶斯网络方法，建立产品研发的技术风险评估模型。论文主要工作包括：
从分析和控制产品研发技术风险的角度，定义产品研发技术风险。复杂产品研发技术风险包括产品技术风险和研发过程技术风险。产品结构的复杂性是导致产品技术风险的主要因素；研发过程的无序性是造成研发过程技术风险的主要因素。产品研发的技术风险管理贯穿于整个研发过程中，是一个与产品研发过程相匹配的，从高层次到低层次、循序渐进的动态过程，并据此建立了复杂产品研发的技术风险管理体系结构。在功能层次上，包括技术风险识别、技术风险评估、制定风险处理计划、技术风险跟踪、技术风险控制。在过程层次上包括总体系统级、子系统级、部件级、工艺级和制造级等层次的技术风险管理过程。
在进行产品技术风险识别时，通过分析产品可能出现的不满足预计功能的行为，即产品功能缺陷，分析产品潜在的技术风险事件，通过产品结构的分解，寻找导致产品技术风险因素。将产品技术风险事件和产品结构上的技术风险因素进行关联，构成了基于产品结构的复杂产品技术风险识别模型。
在进行研发过程技术风险识别时，从产品研发过程管理的角度，进行研发过程技术风险分析。通过研发活动的分解寻找产品活动内的技术风险因素；产品研发的信息需求确定了研发活动之间的关联关系。通过分析研发活动间的各种关系，找出活动间的技术风险因素。活动内的技术风险识别和活动间的技术风险识别，构成了基于活动的复杂产品研发过程技术风险识别模型。
通过分析产品环境或过程环境而产生的风险事件对产品研发的影响，利用贝叶斯网络具有结合专家知识进行不确定信息的推理功能，将基于产品结构的复杂产品技术风险识别模型和基于活动的复杂产品研发过程技术风险识别模型转换成基于贝叶斯网络的技术风险评估模型，并提出了基于产品技术风险和研发过程技术风险评估算法。通过敏感性分析，寻找对技术风险敏感的风险因素，为进一步进行风险控制提供决策依据。
以高精度光刻机产品研发为应用背景，通过实例分析和应用对文中所提出的技术风险理论、方法和技术进行验证。
最后，对需要进一步研究的工作进行了展望。
With the quick development of information technology and acceleration of economic globalization, enterprises' competition is increasingly vigorous. The competition of enterprises comes down to the strife of their new products. Product innovation has already become the nucleus tasks of enterprises. Because the development of the large-scale complicated innovated products has traits: high investment, complex techniques, long development cycle and high risk, the technique management of the risk including analysis, assessment and control of risk must be enforced in order to development of the new products is successful.The technical risk is the one of the main risks during the development of large-scale complicated innovated products. The current technical risk analysis mostly belongs to the static analysis methods that are used for risk forecast or its assessment before the startup of product development. But the technical risk management is a process that is concurrent to the development process and has already become the important part of the project management. The research on the technical risk of product development is lack of the exact definition and research on risk analysis and assessment. Backgrounded as the 863 Project of the Tenth Five period "100 run stepping and scanning lithographic machine with 193 nm ArF quasimolecule laser" which is supported by the State Ministry of Science and Technology, the model of the technical risk analysis is established, and the model of technical risk assessment is set up based on Bayesian Network.The following are the main works in this paper:View from the analysis and control the technical risk of product development, the technical risk is defined and analytical model based on product configuration dimension and developing process dimension is established. Product complicacy mainly results in technical risk on product configuration dimension; inordinance of developing process is the main causes of technical risk on the developing process dimension. The architecture of technical risk management during product developing is formed based on two-dimension analytical model.
When technical risk on the product configuration dimension is analyzed, technical risk events are found by construing product unexpected behavior that is unsatisfied with its functions, i.e. product function faults. The technical risk factors are seeked by decomposing the product structure. The analytical model of product technical risk on the product configuration dimension is constituted by associating its technical risk events are with its risk factors.
Product technical risk, that is a process matched with product developing process, is gradually analyzed from simple to detail, from high layers to lower layers. The technical risk is analyzed on the system level in the beginning of the product developing; with the further development of the product, the technical risk can be analyzed on sub-system level, assembly level, technics level or manufacturing level.
When technical risk on developing process dimension is analyzed, technical risk of developing process is analyzed from the view of managing the developing process. The technical risk factors inside each developing activity are searched by it. The interrelation among developing activities depends on the requirements of product developing information, so the technical risk factors among them are raked by analyzing the interrelation among them. The technical risk inside and among developing activities compose the analytical model of the technical risk on developing process dimension.
The product behaviors or the ones of developing process and product environments or the ones of developing process interact and produce the risk events. Their risk severities depend on technical risk factors and environments. The analytical model of technical risk on the product configuration dimension and the one on developing process dimension are transformed into technical risk assessment model based on Bayesian Network because of its reasoning function of uncertain information combined with experts' knowledge. The related arithmetic on two dimensions is put forward. The sensitive factors of the technical risk, which technical risk is controlled according as, will be found by sensitivity analysis.
As background of development of the high-precision stepping and scanning lithographic machine whose developing experience the developers are lack of, the technical risk theories, methods, techniques which are brought forward in this dissertation, are verified by the case study and applying of them into it.
In the finality, the problems requiring further studies are discussed.
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