我国低碳经济发展的Quadri-Carbon模型构建与情景模拟研究
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摘要
为了减少温室气体排放问题,实现“到2020年我国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40%-45%”的目标,发展低碳经济是我国经济转型的必由之路。低碳经济作为一个复杂系统,涉及政策、经济、环境、技术、管理等众多领域,尤其对于人口众多、正处于工业化进程关键时期的我国而言,发展低碳经济面临诸多困难与挑战。不同的经济发展道路和政策取向,对能源需求和碳排放量有很大的影响。如何辨识我国低碳经济发展的影响因素,理顺各因素层级关系,寻求碳排放与经济和谐发展的路径是本文的研究目的。
本文主要从能源供给、环境变化、可持续发展和循环经济等基础理论入手,结合国内外低碳经济研究和实践现状,对我国低碳经济发展路径和情景模拟做了以下创新性研究工作:
(1)理清我国低碳经济影响因素之间的层次结构关系,对于我国发展低碳经济具有重要的战略意义。本文归纳总结我国低碳经济发展过程中15个影响因素,应用解释结构模型(ISM)分析出各影响因素间相互作用关系,构建我国低碳经济影响因素的五级层次结构模型,得出了经济粗放式发展、缺乏完善的低碳政策框架、人口众多且居民低碳意识薄弱、缺乏低碳领域专业人才是影响我国低碳经济发展的四个主要因素,并分析了这些影响因素的作用路径,提出我国低碳经济发展对策建议。
(2)低碳经济发展路径的选择对我国未来经济发展和碳排放量有着重要关系。本文基于我国碳排放总体特征,从碳源-碳汇角度入手,通过构建我国低碳经济发展的Quadri-Carbon模型,主要以碳消费、碳利用与转化、碳汇建设和碳捕获与封存四个部分为研究对象,归纳并分析各领域能源消耗和碳排放现状,得出各领域有标志性的我国低碳经济发展水平表征指标和含义,科学地分析和论证我国节能减排和经济增长兼顾的低碳发展路径。
(3)情景分析作为低碳经济研究的重要一环,为低碳经济发展路径提供预测和验证依据。本文利用Quadri-Carbon模型构建我国低碳经济发展水平的表征指标,并研究各指标的减排潜力,以此作为情景分析的框架和参数设定。利用中长期能源环境分析(LEAP)模型,以中国低碳经济发展的三种情景——基础情景、低碳情景和受挫情景为研究基础,定量模拟中国2050年低碳经济发展水平,从而制定不同的政策和执行力度。
To reduce the greenhouse gas and achieve the aim that "compared to 2005, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in the year 2020 will decrease by 40% to 45%", development of low-carbon economy is the only way for the economic transition in china. As a complex system, low-carbon economy involves various fields, including policy,economy,environment,technology,management,etc.Development of low-carbon economy faces many difficulties and challenges, especially for China with a large population in a crucial period of industrialization process now. Different economic development paths and policy orientation have great impact on energy demand and carbon emissions. How to identify barriers to prevent the development of low-carbon economy in China, straighten out the hierarchical relationships among the barriers, and to seek harmonious development path between economy and carbon emissions is the purpose of this thesis.
From several fundamental theories, including energy supply, environmental change, sustainable development, circular economy, etc., and taking low-carbon economic research and practice status in China and abroad into account, this paper conducts the following research work on low-carbon economic development path and Scenario analysis in China.
(1)It is of important strategic significance for the development of low-carbon economy in China to straighten out the hierarchical relationship among the barriers. This article summarizes 15 barriers which prevent development of low-carbon economy in the whole process, analyzes the interrelationships of the barriers to obtain the five-level ISM-based model for low-carbon economy development in China by application of interpretive structural model, and illustrates that the major affecting factors to prevent low-carbon economic development in China include rough type of economic development, lack of a complete low-carbon policy framework, large population and lack of low-carbon awareness and lack of research personnel or trained manpower in the field of low-carbon. The above conclusion will help to provide scientific basis for decision making on development of low-carbon economy in China.
(2) The choice of low-carbon path has significant influence on future economic development and carbon emissions in China. Based on the general characteristics of carbon emissions in China, from the angle of carbon source - carbon sink, this paper builds Quadri-Carbon model of low-carbon economic development in China. Though the model, mainly regarding carbon consumption, carbon utilization and conversion, carbon sink construction and carbon capture and storage as the research objects, this article summarizes and analyzes the current situation of energy consumption and carbon emissions in various areas to obtain the iconic characterization indicators of low-carbon economic development in China and concrete meanings of these indicators in all fields. Based on above research, the writer performs scientific analysis and demonstration on low-carbon development path which can give consideration to both energy saving and economic growth in China.
(3) As an important part in low-carbon economy research, scenario analysis provides prediction and verification basis for low-carbon economic development path. This paper builds the characterization indicators of low-carbon economic development in China with application of Quadri-Carbon Model, performs some research on the emission reduction potential of the corresponding indicators, and takes this as scenario analysis framework and parameter settings. In addition, based on three scenarios of low-carbon economic development in China-base scenario (BS), low-carbon scenario (LCS) and frustrated low-carbon scenario (FLCS), this paper stimulates quantitatively the low-carbon development level in 2050 in China by utilization of LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) model .
本文主要从能源供给、环境变化、可持续发展和循环经济等基础理论入手,结合国内外低碳经济研究和实践现状,对我国低碳经济发展路径和情景模拟做了以下创新性研究工作:
(1)理清我国低碳经济影响因素之间的层次结构关系,对于我国发展低碳经济具有重要的战略意义。本文归纳总结我国低碳经济发展过程中15个影响因素,应用解释结构模型(ISM)分析出各影响因素间相互作用关系,构建我国低碳经济影响因素的五级层次结构模型,得出了经济粗放式发展、缺乏完善的低碳政策框架、人口众多且居民低碳意识薄弱、缺乏低碳领域专业人才是影响我国低碳经济发展的四个主要因素,并分析了这些影响因素的作用路径,提出我国低碳经济发展对策建议。
(2)低碳经济发展路径的选择对我国未来经济发展和碳排放量有着重要关系。本文基于我国碳排放总体特征,从碳源-碳汇角度入手,通过构建我国低碳经济发展的Quadri-Carbon模型,主要以碳消费、碳利用与转化、碳汇建设和碳捕获与封存四个部分为研究对象,归纳并分析各领域能源消耗和碳排放现状,得出各领域有标志性的我国低碳经济发展水平表征指标和含义,科学地分析和论证我国节能减排和经济增长兼顾的低碳发展路径。
(3)情景分析作为低碳经济研究的重要一环,为低碳经济发展路径提供预测和验证依据。本文利用Quadri-Carbon模型构建我国低碳经济发展水平的表征指标,并研究各指标的减排潜力,以此作为情景分析的框架和参数设定。利用中长期能源环境分析(LEAP)模型,以中国低碳经济发展的三种情景——基础情景、低碳情景和受挫情景为研究基础,定量模拟中国2050年低碳经济发展水平,从而制定不同的政策和执行力度。
To reduce the greenhouse gas and achieve the aim that "compared to 2005, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in the year 2020 will decrease by 40% to 45%", development of low-carbon economy is the only way for the economic transition in china. As a complex system, low-carbon economy involves various fields, including policy,economy,environment,technology,management,etc.Development of low-carbon economy faces many difficulties and challenges, especially for China with a large population in a crucial period of industrialization process now. Different economic development paths and policy orientation have great impact on energy demand and carbon emissions. How to identify barriers to prevent the development of low-carbon economy in China, straighten out the hierarchical relationships among the barriers, and to seek harmonious development path between economy and carbon emissions is the purpose of this thesis.
From several fundamental theories, including energy supply, environmental change, sustainable development, circular economy, etc., and taking low-carbon economic research and practice status in China and abroad into account, this paper conducts the following research work on low-carbon economic development path and Scenario analysis in China.
(1)It is of important strategic significance for the development of low-carbon economy in China to straighten out the hierarchical relationship among the barriers. This article summarizes 15 barriers which prevent development of low-carbon economy in the whole process, analyzes the interrelationships of the barriers to obtain the five-level ISM-based model for low-carbon economy development in China by application of interpretive structural model, and illustrates that the major affecting factors to prevent low-carbon economic development in China include rough type of economic development, lack of a complete low-carbon policy framework, large population and lack of low-carbon awareness and lack of research personnel or trained manpower in the field of low-carbon. The above conclusion will help to provide scientific basis for decision making on development of low-carbon economy in China.
(2) The choice of low-carbon path has significant influence on future economic development and carbon emissions in China. Based on the general characteristics of carbon emissions in China, from the angle of carbon source - carbon sink, this paper builds Quadri-Carbon model of low-carbon economic development in China. Though the model, mainly regarding carbon consumption, carbon utilization and conversion, carbon sink construction and carbon capture and storage as the research objects, this article summarizes and analyzes the current situation of energy consumption and carbon emissions in various areas to obtain the iconic characterization indicators of low-carbon economic development in China and concrete meanings of these indicators in all fields. Based on above research, the writer performs scientific analysis and demonstration on low-carbon development path which can give consideration to both energy saving and economic growth in China.
(3) As an important part in low-carbon economy research, scenario analysis provides prediction and verification basis for low-carbon economic development path. This paper builds the characterization indicators of low-carbon economic development in China with application of Quadri-Carbon Model, performs some research on the emission reduction potential of the corresponding indicators, and takes this as scenario analysis framework and parameter settings. In addition, based on three scenarios of low-carbon economic development in China-base scenario (BS), low-carbon scenario (LCS) and frustrated low-carbon scenario (FLCS), this paper stimulates quantitatively the low-carbon development level in 2050 in China by utilization of LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) model .
引文
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