长江三角洲地区土地利用/覆被变化及其对洪灾孕灾环境的影响研究
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摘要
长江三角洲地区是我国当前经济实力最强,人口高度集中的区域,随着长江三角洲地区的快速城镇化进程,它已成为世界上最大的城市化群之一,区域内建设用地面积急剧增加,占用了大量耕地水域,也对林地、河网造成了破坏,洪涝灾害以及水环境恶化问题也随之加剧。研究快速城镇化背景下的区域土地利用/覆被变化及其对洪灾孕灾环境的影响,其科学意义在于明确长江三角洲地区土地利用/覆被变化对区域洪灾孕灾环境产生何种影响,其影响机制如何,从而为减轻洪水灾害,提出调控方案和对策。从理论层次上来说,本研究一方面可以丰富孕灾环境的理论研究；另一方面也是对土地资源与环境耦合研究体系的补充和完善。其实践意义在于,其研究成果可为我国东部其它城市化高度发展地区土地资源合理利用、河流保护、减轻水旱灾害等提供较好借鉴和参考。
本文从洪灾孕灾环境整体角度入手总结归纳灾害学、环境灾害学、水文学等相关论述,对孕灾环境理论及孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体三者的辩证关系进行了初步探讨。
通过遥感影像解译、地图数字化等工作形成区域数据集,借助GIS、地统计分析等方法比较1991年、2001年和2008年三个不同时段的数据,对区域土地利用/覆被变化进行了分析,借助因子分析等手段对土地利用变化的驱动机制进行了探讨；借助RAGA-PPC模型与CLUE-S相结合,提高了模型的精度和效率,对土地利用/覆被变化进行了模拟；模拟过程不仅涉及土地利用变化的驱动因子,借助RAGA-PPC的可降维特点和迭代优势,同时将洪灾孕灾环境的要素包含在内进行了模拟。通过选取不同典型研究区,对土地利用/覆被变化对河网水系结构以及调蓄洪能力的影响进行了研究。
研究结果表明,孕灾环境在理论上不仅是洪灾发生的必要条件和要素,其本身也是集合多要素的综合体,孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体三者的综合作用决定了洪涝灾害的发生、强度和进程；从宏观来看,长江三角洲地区近20年来土地利用覆被发生了显著变化,核心特点表现为建设用地占用耕地、水域而大幅度扩展,快速城镇化过程催生建设用地急剧增长,对下垫面有很大扰动,1991-2008年区域城镇建设用地总量由1991年的4857.08km2增加到2008年的23178.53km2,其主要来源为耕地；相关因子分析表明,人口数量与经济发展水平是区域土地利用/覆被变化的核心驱动力；从中观来看,太湖流域调蓄洪能力下降明显,调蓄能力水域、水田和建设用地之间的相互转化对流域调蓄能力起决定性作用；从微观来看,苏州地区河网水系结构也受到快速城镇化的影响,整体形态结构趋于简化。
模型模拟结果显示,改进后的模型整体模拟精度较高达82%,与未改进模型相比较整体精度提高5.58%,局部精度提高17.75%；预测结果同时表明苏州地区建设用地近期仍将高速增长,在此背景下,洪灾孕灾环境各要素变化趋势一致,区域洪灾风险将加大、区域洪灾孕灾环境有恶化的趋势。
The Yangtze River Delta Region is not only one of the largest population concentrated area in China, but also the richest and the most developed region.With the rapid progress of urbanization it has became the largest group of highly urbannizationed cities. In this region the urban land area sharply increased, which occupying great amounts of cultivated land, forestland, water area, and grassland. At the same time, it has made massive damage to the structure of river network. The flood disater and water environment issues increased. The scientific significance of this study is to clarify the effect mechanism and puts forward countermeasures.On the theoretical level, this study not only enriched the theory of flood disaster formative environment but also improved the research system of land resources and coupled with environment. The results provided a good example on reasonable use of land resource and reduce flood disaster for highly urbanized area in east China.
In this study, the theory of flood disaster formative environment was put forward by induction and summary from disaster theory, environment disaster theory, and hydrology. The discussions were made to understand the dialectical relationship between flood disaster formative environment, inducing factors, and bearing body.
From the remote sensing image interpretation and digitalization of related maps, a dataset was built including three diffirent time data, which is from 1991,2001, and 2008. The dataset was used to analyze the LUCC and it's driven forces by factor analysis, which conclusion was used as index of RAGA-PPC and CLUE-S combined model to simulate the land use change. The simulation used not only driven forces, but also the main factors of flood disaster formative environment. The simulation accuracy and efficiency was both improved by the benefit of dimension reduction and iteration procedures from RAGA. The impacts of LUCC on flood disaster formative environment was also analyzed in two typical areas which is Suzhou area and Lake Taihu catchment.
The results showed that the formative environment was not only a factor to flood disaster but also a combination of many factors. The occurrence, intensity, and process of flood disaster were comprehensive effected by flood disaster formative environment, inducing factors, and bearing body. From the macro-view the LUCC has sharply changed, the main character showed that massive occupation of urban land to others and the underlying surface was strongly disturbanced by it. From 1991 to 2008 the urban land area of the Yangtze River Delta region has increased from 4857.08km2 to 23178.53km2, the main source of occupation were cultivated land. The result of factor analysis showed that the population and economic grows were the main driven forces of LUCC in the Yangtze River Delta region. From the medium-view the flood diversion and storage ability of Taihu Lake catchment decreased significantly, the mutual-transformation of urban land, water body, paddy field and upland field played a decisive role. From the micro-view the rivernet struture was effected by urbanization, the whole structure was simplified.
The simulation results showed that the combined model improved the accuracy to 82% which improved by 5.58% as a whole and partially by 17.75%. The simulation also conclued that the congstruction land would continuous increase at, the main factors of flood disaster formative environment had a same trend, which showed the risk of flood disaster would increase, and the whole flood disaster formative environment had a trend of deteriorative.
本文从洪灾孕灾环境整体角度入手总结归纳灾害学、环境灾害学、水文学等相关论述,对孕灾环境理论及孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体三者的辩证关系进行了初步探讨。
通过遥感影像解译、地图数字化等工作形成区域数据集,借助GIS、地统计分析等方法比较1991年、2001年和2008年三个不同时段的数据,对区域土地利用/覆被变化进行了分析,借助因子分析等手段对土地利用变化的驱动机制进行了探讨；借助RAGA-PPC模型与CLUE-S相结合,提高了模型的精度和效率,对土地利用/覆被变化进行了模拟；模拟过程不仅涉及土地利用变化的驱动因子,借助RAGA-PPC的可降维特点和迭代优势,同时将洪灾孕灾环境的要素包含在内进行了模拟。通过选取不同典型研究区,对土地利用/覆被变化对河网水系结构以及调蓄洪能力的影响进行了研究。
研究结果表明,孕灾环境在理论上不仅是洪灾发生的必要条件和要素,其本身也是集合多要素的综合体,孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体三者的综合作用决定了洪涝灾害的发生、强度和进程；从宏观来看,长江三角洲地区近20年来土地利用覆被发生了显著变化,核心特点表现为建设用地占用耕地、水域而大幅度扩展,快速城镇化过程催生建设用地急剧增长,对下垫面有很大扰动,1991-2008年区域城镇建设用地总量由1991年的4857.08km2增加到2008年的23178.53km2,其主要来源为耕地；相关因子分析表明,人口数量与经济发展水平是区域土地利用/覆被变化的核心驱动力；从中观来看,太湖流域调蓄洪能力下降明显,调蓄能力水域、水田和建设用地之间的相互转化对流域调蓄能力起决定性作用；从微观来看,苏州地区河网水系结构也受到快速城镇化的影响,整体形态结构趋于简化。
模型模拟结果显示,改进后的模型整体模拟精度较高达82%,与未改进模型相比较整体精度提高5.58%,局部精度提高17.75%；预测结果同时表明苏州地区建设用地近期仍将高速增长,在此背景下,洪灾孕灾环境各要素变化趋势一致,区域洪灾风险将加大、区域洪灾孕灾环境有恶化的趋势。
The Yangtze River Delta Region is not only one of the largest population concentrated area in China, but also the richest and the most developed region.With the rapid progress of urbanization it has became the largest group of highly urbannizationed cities. In this region the urban land area sharply increased, which occupying great amounts of cultivated land, forestland, water area, and grassland. At the same time, it has made massive damage to the structure of river network. The flood disater and water environment issues increased. The scientific significance of this study is to clarify the effect mechanism and puts forward countermeasures.On the theoretical level, this study not only enriched the theory of flood disaster formative environment but also improved the research system of land resources and coupled with environment. The results provided a good example on reasonable use of land resource and reduce flood disaster for highly urbanized area in east China.
In this study, the theory of flood disaster formative environment was put forward by induction and summary from disaster theory, environment disaster theory, and hydrology. The discussions were made to understand the dialectical relationship between flood disaster formative environment, inducing factors, and bearing body.
From the remote sensing image interpretation and digitalization of related maps, a dataset was built including three diffirent time data, which is from 1991,2001, and 2008. The dataset was used to analyze the LUCC and it's driven forces by factor analysis, which conclusion was used as index of RAGA-PPC and CLUE-S combined model to simulate the land use change. The simulation used not only driven forces, but also the main factors of flood disaster formative environment. The simulation accuracy and efficiency was both improved by the benefit of dimension reduction and iteration procedures from RAGA. The impacts of LUCC on flood disaster formative environment was also analyzed in two typical areas which is Suzhou area and Lake Taihu catchment.
The results showed that the formative environment was not only a factor to flood disaster but also a combination of many factors. The occurrence, intensity, and process of flood disaster were comprehensive effected by flood disaster formative environment, inducing factors, and bearing body. From the macro-view the LUCC has sharply changed, the main character showed that massive occupation of urban land to others and the underlying surface was strongly disturbanced by it. From 1991 to 2008 the urban land area of the Yangtze River Delta region has increased from 4857.08km2 to 23178.53km2, the main source of occupation were cultivated land. The result of factor analysis showed that the population and economic grows were the main driven forces of LUCC in the Yangtze River Delta region. From the medium-view the flood diversion and storage ability of Taihu Lake catchment decreased significantly, the mutual-transformation of urban land, water body, paddy field and upland field played a decisive role. From the micro-view the rivernet struture was effected by urbanization, the whole structure was simplified.
The simulation results showed that the combined model improved the accuracy to 82% which improved by 5.58% as a whole and partially by 17.75%. The simulation also conclued that the congstruction land would continuous increase at, the main factors of flood disaster formative environment had a same trend, which showed the risk of flood disaster would increase, and the whole flood disaster formative environment had a trend of deteriorative.
引文
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