不确定性条件下发电投资决策模型与方法研究
|
摘要
电力是国民经济的重要基础性产业,对于维持和促进一个国家的社会经济发展和改善国民生活水平起着重要的支持与保障作用。随着经济社会环境的逐渐发展和变化,传统的电力工业垄断格局已不再适应社会经济对电力工业发展的客观要求,因此,“打破垄断、引入竞争”已经成为世界各国电力改革的普遍诉求。
发电领域是最早引入竞争的环节。在电力市场环境中,发电商的投资策略和运营方式与传统管制体系下相比,在投资决策主体、发电项目选择等方面受到更多不确定性和随机性因素的影响,同时发电规划与输电规划的关系、激励方式等也都发生了巨大的变化。本文以合理配置资源,提高资源利用效率为出发点,综合考虑投资环境、投资时机、投资结构等不确定因素,主要针对不确定性条件下的发电技术、最佳投资时机和发电扩张的投资决策进行研究与模型的构建。以促进电力工业与社会、经济、环境的协调发展,提高投资效率。
首先,本文对不确定性条件下的发电投资决策的理论基础进行研究。简要回顾了不确定性的基本理论,比较了不同的投资决策方法,并对市场化下的发电投资决策的不确定性进行了研究,指出市场化改革前后发电投资决策存在差别,总结了电力市场条件下发电投资决策的特点,分析了不同市场规制下发电投资决策。
其次,针对不确定性条件下的发电投资的技术选择进行研究和模型的构建。主要研究内容包括三个方面：基于不可逆投资的实物期权理论建立经济模型,研究了电能价格及化石燃料价格对发电投资决策的影响,并对能源价格之间相互关系的作用进行了分析。
再次,对不确定性条件下的最佳投资时机决策进行了研究与模型的构建。主要的研究思路首先是基于投资收益最大化的投资决策基本原则,在点火差价模型的基础上进行了进一步的扩展,建立一个考虑到发电产能的跳跃和尖峰的更加准确的实物期权模型；在此基础上构建了关于跳跃的电价模型和期权评估模型,分析了用于反映各种电价的特征的发电资产评估的灵敏度；然后,介绍取得一些发电资产的投资机会的评估。最后,总结了发电资产价值和发电投资时机的意义。
最后,针对不确定性条件下的发电扩张投资决策进行研究与模型的构建。结合不确定性和竞争对手的未来期望投资,提出了在不确定性条件下企业用于扩张投资决策的分析框架：在投资评价前,基于全寿命周期成本构建火电设备评估关联模型,识别个别投资项目,并运用动态规划方法,确定与持续负荷曲线最近似的阶梯函数,为发电扩张投资决策提供参考依据；建立投资评价模型,并充分考虑竞争对手未来的扩张计划及负荷、燃料成本在未来期间增长的不确定性。研究运用投资评价模型进行了算例分析,比较了不同发电技术的投资价值,制定了不同负荷增长率下的系统扩建时间表,研究了不同的负荷增长率对投资项目的影响。
Being an important basic industry of national economy, Electricity is playing a key supportive in a country's socio-economic development and the national civil living standard. As the economic and social environment changes, the pattern of the traditional monopoly of the power industry cannot meet the latest requirement of recent development. Thus, breaking the monopoly and introducing competition has become the universal appeal of the world's electricity reform.
Power generating area is the earliest one to introduce and conduct competition model. Compared to the traditional control system in the electricity market, the investment strategy and operating model of this generation companies are different in aspacts of realation between generation, transmission planning and incentive method, etc. These are because of the effectiveness of more uncertainties and randomnesses. In order to disscuss on rational allocation and efficent usage of resources, this paper will focus on researching, modeling and senario planning in decision making strategy about the power generation technologies, investment window of opportunity and generation exanding under uncertainties including environment, opportunities and strcture of investment. These discussion are committed to promote the coordinated development of the industry related to society,economy environment and meanwhile the investment efficeicy. The discussion is mainly composed of three parts introduced below.
Firstly, this paper will study the theoretical basis of the power generation investment decisions under uncertainties, compare the different investment decisions, investigate the uncertainties of power generation investment decisions. It will futher point out the difference of the power generation investment decisions between before and after the market-oriented reform, and analyze the decisions under different market regulation.
Secondly, this paper will research and model the selection of the generation technologies under uncertainties. The main contents include the study on Economic models based on real option theory of irreversible investment, the research on the enfluence by the price of eletricity on fossil fuels'price and the investment decision making, and analyze on the mutual relations between different energy pieces.
Thirdly, this paper will research and model the best investment opportunity decision. A more accurate real option model considering the jump and spike of generation capacity will be built based on the basic principles of maximizing the investment income and the expansion of spark spread model. Based on the power price model with jump, a options valuation model will also be proposed. Futhermore, The sensitivity of power generation assets assessment will be analyzed to reflect the features of power price. Moreover, it will introduce the evaluation of different investment opportunities, and conclude the significance of generation assets'value and investment timing.
Finally, this paper will research and model for the investment decision-making of power generation expansion under uncertainties. Combining with the uncertainty and the competitors'future expectations of investment, the article introduces the analysis framework for expansion of investment decisions under uncertainty conditions—making associated model of the assessment of the thermal power equipment before the investment evaluation, identifying individual investment projects based on the full life-cycle cost, determining the most suitable and continuous load curve step function with the method of dynamic programming to provide references for the investment decision of power generation expansion and building investment evaluation model and taking full account of the competitors'future expansion program and the uncertainties of fuel costs variation in the future. Moreover, this paper will determine the investment value of the power generation technology establish the expansion schedule of the system under different load growth and research the impact of different load growth rate on investment projects by the example analysis.
发电领域是最早引入竞争的环节。在电力市场环境中,发电商的投资策略和运营方式与传统管制体系下相比,在投资决策主体、发电项目选择等方面受到更多不确定性和随机性因素的影响,同时发电规划与输电规划的关系、激励方式等也都发生了巨大的变化。本文以合理配置资源,提高资源利用效率为出发点,综合考虑投资环境、投资时机、投资结构等不确定因素,主要针对不确定性条件下的发电技术、最佳投资时机和发电扩张的投资决策进行研究与模型的构建。以促进电力工业与社会、经济、环境的协调发展,提高投资效率。
首先,本文对不确定性条件下的发电投资决策的理论基础进行研究。简要回顾了不确定性的基本理论,比较了不同的投资决策方法,并对市场化下的发电投资决策的不确定性进行了研究,指出市场化改革前后发电投资决策存在差别,总结了电力市场条件下发电投资决策的特点,分析了不同市场规制下发电投资决策。
其次,针对不确定性条件下的发电投资的技术选择进行研究和模型的构建。主要研究内容包括三个方面：基于不可逆投资的实物期权理论建立经济模型,研究了电能价格及化石燃料价格对发电投资决策的影响,并对能源价格之间相互关系的作用进行了分析。
再次,对不确定性条件下的最佳投资时机决策进行了研究与模型的构建。主要的研究思路首先是基于投资收益最大化的投资决策基本原则,在点火差价模型的基础上进行了进一步的扩展,建立一个考虑到发电产能的跳跃和尖峰的更加准确的实物期权模型；在此基础上构建了关于跳跃的电价模型和期权评估模型,分析了用于反映各种电价的特征的发电资产评估的灵敏度；然后,介绍取得一些发电资产的投资机会的评估。最后,总结了发电资产价值和发电投资时机的意义。
最后,针对不确定性条件下的发电扩张投资决策进行研究与模型的构建。结合不确定性和竞争对手的未来期望投资,提出了在不确定性条件下企业用于扩张投资决策的分析框架：在投资评价前,基于全寿命周期成本构建火电设备评估关联模型,识别个别投资项目,并运用动态规划方法,确定与持续负荷曲线最近似的阶梯函数,为发电扩张投资决策提供参考依据；建立投资评价模型,并充分考虑竞争对手未来的扩张计划及负荷、燃料成本在未来期间增长的不确定性。研究运用投资评价模型进行了算例分析,比较了不同发电技术的投资价值,制定了不同负荷增长率下的系统扩建时间表,研究了不同的负荷增长率对投资项目的影响。
Being an important basic industry of national economy, Electricity is playing a key supportive in a country's socio-economic development and the national civil living standard. As the economic and social environment changes, the pattern of the traditional monopoly of the power industry cannot meet the latest requirement of recent development. Thus, breaking the monopoly and introducing competition has become the universal appeal of the world's electricity reform.
Power generating area is the earliest one to introduce and conduct competition model. Compared to the traditional control system in the electricity market, the investment strategy and operating model of this generation companies are different in aspacts of realation between generation, transmission planning and incentive method, etc. These are because of the effectiveness of more uncertainties and randomnesses. In order to disscuss on rational allocation and efficent usage of resources, this paper will focus on researching, modeling and senario planning in decision making strategy about the power generation technologies, investment window of opportunity and generation exanding under uncertainties including environment, opportunities and strcture of investment. These discussion are committed to promote the coordinated development of the industry related to society,economy environment and meanwhile the investment efficeicy. The discussion is mainly composed of three parts introduced below.
Firstly, this paper will study the theoretical basis of the power generation investment decisions under uncertainties, compare the different investment decisions, investigate the uncertainties of power generation investment decisions. It will futher point out the difference of the power generation investment decisions between before and after the market-oriented reform, and analyze the decisions under different market regulation.
Secondly, this paper will research and model the selection of the generation technologies under uncertainties. The main contents include the study on Economic models based on real option theory of irreversible investment, the research on the enfluence by the price of eletricity on fossil fuels'price and the investment decision making, and analyze on the mutual relations between different energy pieces.
Thirdly, this paper will research and model the best investment opportunity decision. A more accurate real option model considering the jump and spike of generation capacity will be built based on the basic principles of maximizing the investment income and the expansion of spark spread model. Based on the power price model with jump, a options valuation model will also be proposed. Futhermore, The sensitivity of power generation assets assessment will be analyzed to reflect the features of power price. Moreover, it will introduce the evaluation of different investment opportunities, and conclude the significance of generation assets'value and investment timing.
Finally, this paper will research and model for the investment decision-making of power generation expansion under uncertainties. Combining with the uncertainty and the competitors'future expectations of investment, the article introduces the analysis framework for expansion of investment decisions under uncertainty conditions—making associated model of the assessment of the thermal power equipment before the investment evaluation, identifying individual investment projects based on the full life-cycle cost, determining the most suitable and continuous load curve step function with the method of dynamic programming to provide references for the investment decision of power generation expansion and building investment evaluation model and taking full account of the competitors'future expansion program and the uncertainties of fuel costs variation in the future. Moreover, this paper will determine the investment value of the power generation technology establish the expansion schedule of the system under different load growth and research the impact of different load growth rate on investment projects by the example analysis.
引文
[1]翟志华,赵三清.厂网分开、竞价上网后电力投资公司的对策[J].中国能源,2002,10：37-40
[2]任莺.中国电力行业面对WTO应对策略研究[D].北京：对外经济贸易大学,2003
[3]刘宝华,王冬容,赵学顺.电力市场建设的几个本质问题探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(1)：1-5
[4]Steven R.Grenadier. Option Exercise Games:An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2002,15(3): 691-721
[5]詹筱霞.基于实物期权的投资最优时机研究『J].江西理工大学学报,2007,28(6)：59-62
[6]臧宝锋.不确定与竞争条件下的发电投资决策研究[D].南京：东南大学,2006
[7]刘扬国,杨晓忠.实物期权在电力建设项目投资决策中的应用[J].中国电力教育(研究生论丛专刊),2005,z3：220-222
[8]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1996：1-50
[9]S.Arimoto.Passivity-based Control[C]. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, San Francisco, CA, USA,2000(1): 227-232
[10]T.Hung-Chi, C.Chia-Chi, L.Sheng-Hui. Passivity-based Nonlinear STATCOM Controller Design for Improving Transient Stability of Power Systems[C].2005 IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition-Asia and Pacific, Dalian, China,2005:1-5
[11]R.Ortega, M.Galaz, A.Astolfi, et al. Transient Stabilization of Multi Machine Power Systems with Nontrivial Transfer Conductances[J]. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,2005,50(1):60-75
[12]R.Ortega, Z.P.Jiang, D.J.Hill. Passivity-based Control of Nonlinear Systems: Atutorial[C]. Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Albuquerque, NM, USA,1997(5):2633-2637
[13]R.Ortega, I.Mareels. Energy-balancing Passivity-based Control[C]. Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Chicago, IL, USA,2000(2):1265-1270
[14]Lin W M, Zhan T S, Tsay M T, et al. The Generation Expansion Planning of the Utility in a Deregulated Environment[C]. Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies, Vo12.Hong Kong(China),2004:702-707
[15]Park J B, Kim J U, Lee K Y. Generation Expansion Planning in a Competitive Environment Using a Genetic Algorithm[C]. Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Society SummerMeeting, Vol 3.Chicago(USA),2002:1169-1172
[16]Prina J. Investment Decision Making in a Deregulated Electric Industry Using Stochastic Dominance[C]. Proceedings of 2000 IEEE Engineering Management Society.Albuquerque(USA),2000:546-551
[17]Kannan S., Slochanal S.M., Padhy N.P. Application and Comparison of Metaheuristic Techniques to Generation Expansion Planning Problem[C]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(1):466-475
[18]Cell G, Pilo F. Optimal Distributed Generation Allocation in MV Distribution Networks[C].22nd IEEE Power Engineering Society International Conference on Power Industry Computer Applications,20-24 May 2001:81-86
[19]Cell G, Pilo F.MV. Network Planning Under Uncertainties on Distributed Generation Penetration[C]. Proceedings of 2001 IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, Voll.Vancouver(Canada),2001:485-490
[20]张文泉.电力技术经济评价理论、方法及应用[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2004：88.132
[21]赵新宇,王锡凡,陈皓勇.火电厂投资风险决策的模型与整体框架[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(8)：7-11
[22]赵新宇,王锡凡,陈皓勇.火电厂投资风险决策的算法和灵敏度分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(10)：15-120
[23]张文泉,董福贵,张世英,等.电厂鲁棒性组合研究[J].华东电力,2003,31(12)： 4-7
[24]Hsu M. Spark Spread Options Are Hot![J]. Electricity Journal,1998,11(2):28-39
[25]Thomas Dangl. Investment and Capacity Choice Under Uncertain Demand[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1999,117(3):415-428
[26]Wang C H. Generation Planning for Electric Power Utilities Under Market Uncertainties:A Real Options Approach, Doctoral Dissertation[D]. Ames, IA, USA:Iowa State University,2001
[27]Prina J. Investment Decision Making in a Deregulated Electric Industry Using Stochastic Dominance[C]. Proceedings of the 2000 IEEE, Engineering Management Society,2000:546-551
[28]MinK.J., Wang C.H. Generation Planning for Inter-related Generation Units:A Real Options Approach[C]. Proceedings of the 2000 Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting.Seattle, WA, United StatesInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.,2000:2261-2265
[29]Deng S.J., Johnson B.Sogomonian A. Exotic Electricity Options and The Valuation of Electricity Generation and Transmission Assets[J]. Decision Support System, 2001,30(3):383-392
[30]Yamamoto H., Tezuka T. Optimal Investment in Power Plant under Price uncertainty[C]. Proceedings of the 41st SICE Annual Conference. Osaka, Japan, 2002:1302-1305
[31]Bar-Ilan A., SulemA., Zanello A. Time-to-build and Capacity Choice[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2002,26(1):69-95
[32]M.Louise Scholes, Mike Wright, Paul Westhead, et al. Information Sharing, Price Negotiation and Management Buy-outs of Private Family-owned Firms[J]. Small Business Economics,2007,29(3):329-349
[33]Murto P., Keppo J.A. Game Model of Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty[J]. International Game Theory Review,2002,4(2):127-140
[34]Y.Z.Sun, Q.J.Liu, Y.H.Song, et al. Hamiltonian Modelling and Nonlinear Disturbance Attenuation Control of TCSC for Improving Power System Stability[J]. IEE Proceedings, Part D, Control Theory and Applications,2002, 149(4):278-284
[35]R.Ortega, A.Van Der Schaft, B.Maschke. Interconnection and Damping Assignment Passivity-based Control of Port-controlled Hamiltonian Systems[J]. Automatica,2002,38(4):585-596
[36]Chaton C, Doucet J A. Uncertainty and Investment in Electricity Generation:The Case of Hydro-Quebec[R]. Canada, Cahiers de Recherche from Universite Laval-Departement d'economique,1999
[37]Botterud A. Long-Term Planning in Restructured Power Systems:Dynamic Modelling of Investments in New Power Generation Under Uncertainty[D]. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway,2003
[38]Ishii J, Yan J. Investment Under Regulatory Uncertainty:U.S. Electricity Generation Investment Since 1996[R]. Center for the Study of Energy Markets, University of California Energy Institute, UC Berkeley.2004,3
[39]Zhou H., HouY., Wu Y, et al. Real Option Evaluation of Generation Asset in Spot Market Considering Operation Constraints[C]. Proceedings of IEEE PES General Meeting. USA,2007:1-6
[40]S.Mei, T.Shen, W.Hu, et al. Robust H Control of a Hamiltonian System with Uncertainty and its Application to a Multi-machine Power System[J]. IEE Proc. Control Theory Appl.2005,152(2):202-210
[41]倪迎春,杨炯.实物期权法在电力项目投资评估中的应用[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2004,2：35-37
[42]李开海.未来不确定条件下电源规划投资模型[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2004,26(1)：119-128
[43]林伯强.项目评估中的风险分析：应用和主要问题[J].金融研究,2003,11：49-63
[44]王良友,张巍,童明光,等.市场环境下基于实物期权理论的发电商投资决策分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(25)：165-169
[45]袁德,李宜君,董全学,等.基于Black-Scholes实物期权定价模型的发电商投资决策分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2008,3(12)：17-20
[46]曾鸣,张金荣,马向春,等.基于动态规划的发电容量投资优化决策模型[J].华东电力,2011,39(3)：0419-0422
[47]梁志宏,杨昆,孙耀唯,等.电力市场下基于实物期权理论的电源投资动态决策模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2006,26(16)：74-79
[48]吉兴全,文福拴.发电投资的实物期权决策方法[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(11)：1-5
[49]李开海,王旭,蒋燕.期权理论在电源规划投资模型中的应用[J].现代电力,2003,20(3)：129-132
[50]苑志勇,陈铁英,罗云峰.基于Nash均衡的电力市场竞价策略分析[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(1)：52-54
[51]Pierre Olivier P, Pauli M. An Oligopolistic Investment Model of the Finnish Electricity Market[J]. Annals of Operations Research,2003,121(1):123-148
[52]Pierre Olivier P. Electricity Market Reforms:Institutional Developments, Investment Dynamics and Game Modelling Doctoral Dissertation[D]. Victoria: University of Victoria,2001
[53]Centeno E, Reneses J, Garcia R, et al. Long-term Market Equilibrium Modelling for Generation Expansion Planning[C]. IEEE Power Tech Conference Proceedings, Voll. Bologna(Italy):2003
[54]T.W. Berrie. Electricity Economics and Planning[M]. Steven Age:The Institution of Engineering and Technology,1992:1-31
[55]Chuang A S, Wu F, Varaiya P.A. Game-Theoretic Model for Generation Expansion Planning:Problem Formulation and Numerical Comparisons[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2001,16(4):885-891
[56]Wei Jing-Yuan, Yves Smeers. Spatial Oligopolistic Electricity Models with Cournot Generators and Regulated Transmission Prices [J]. Operations Research,1999, 47(1):102-112
[57]GW. Ault, C.E.T. Foote, J.R.Mc Donald. Distribution System Planning in Focus[J], IEEE Power Engineering Review,2002,5(22):60-62
[58]Jing-Yuan W., Smeers Y. Spatial Oligopolistic Electricity Models with Cournot Generators and Regulated Transmission Prices[J]. Operation Research,1999,47(1): 102-112
[59]Oren S.S. Ensuring Generation Adequacy in Competitive Electricity Markets[D]. University of California Energy Institute,2003
[60]Williams, J.T. Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets [J]. The Review of Financial Studies,1993,6(4):825-850
[61]文福拴,David A K.加州电力市场失败的教训[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(5)：1-5
[62]安瑛晖,张维.期权博弈理论的方法模型分析与发展[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(1)：38-44
[63]DelSol P., and P. Ghemawat. Strategic Valuation of Investment Under Competition[J]. Interfaces,1999,29(6):42-56
[64]许诺,文福拴,黄民翔.基于期权博弈理论的发电投资决策[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,31(14)：25-30
[65]Botterud A., M.Korps. Modelling of Power Generation Investment Incentives Under Uncertainty in Liberalized Electricity Markets[C]. The 6th IAEE European Conference, Zurich,2004
[66]Cormio C, Dicorato M, Minoia A, et al. A regional Energy Planning Methodology Including Renewable Energy Sources and Environmental Constraints [J]. Renew Sustain Energy Reviews,2003,7(2):99-130
[67]Baldursson, F.M Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty in Oligopoly[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1998,22(4):627-644
[68]Frank H. Knight著.风险、不确定性与利润[M].安佳译.北京：商务印书馆,2006
[69]臧宝锋,胡汉辉,王建兴.电力市场条件下的发电投资均衡[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(2)：41-44
[70]周春生,长青,郭良勤.等待的价值——未来不确定条件下的建设项目投资决策分析[J].经济研究,2001,8：79-85
[71]Myers, S.C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1977,5(2):147-175
[72]TrigeorgisL. Real Options:Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation[M]. Boston:MIT Press.1996
[73]Harrison Gareth P., Piccolo Antonio, Siano Pierluigi, et al. Hybrid GA and OPF Evaluation of Network Capacity for Distributed Generation Connections[J]. Electric Power Systems Research,2008,78(3):392-398
[74]Dixit A K, Pindyck R.S. The Option Approach to Capital Investment[J]. Harvard Business Review,1995,73(3):105-115
[75]Abel A, Dixit A, Eberly J, et al. Options, The Value of Capital and Investment[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1996,111(3):753-777
[76]Abel A.B., J.C.Eberly. Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,1996,63(4):581-593
[77]张俊国,杨丽琴,潘德惠.投资机会期权价值的进一步研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(3)：22-25
[78]McDonald R.L., Siegel. D.. Investment and the Valuation of Firms when Thereis an Option to Shut Down[J]. International Economic Review,1985,26(2):331-349
[79]阿维纳什·迪克西特,罗伯特·平迪克.不确定条件下的投资[M].朱勇译,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002
[80]康重庆,白利超,夏清等.电力市场中发电商的风险决策[J].电机工程学报,2004,24(8)：2-6.
[81]Deng S. J., Johnsony B., Sogomonianz A.. Spark Spread Options and The Valuation of Electricity Generation Assets[C]. Proceedings of the 32nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,1999:1-6
[82]Black F, Scholes M. The pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(3):637-654
[83]Merton R. Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns Are Discontinuous[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1976,3(1-2):125-144.
[84]McDonald R. L., Siegel D., The Value of Waiting to Invest[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1986,101(4):707-727
[85]Trigeorgis L, Mason S. Valuing Managerial Flexibility[J]. Midland Corporate Finance Journal,1987,5(1):14-21
[86]Huisman K. Technology Investment:A Game Theoretic Real Options Approach[M]. Springer Netherlands,2001
[87]Kemna A. Case Studies on Real Options[J]. Financial Management,1993,22(3): 259-270.
[88]范龙振,张子刚.投资机会价值的研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1996,11：64-66
[89]范龙振,唐国兴.经营柔性、价值评价与投资决策[J].上海经济研究,1998,4：38-40
[90]范龙振,唐国兴.投资机会价值的期权评价方法[J].管理工程学报,2000,14(4)：34-37
[91]夏晖,曾勇,唐小我.企业采用新技术的最优时机研究[J].系统工程学报,2004,19(6)：607-614
[92]吴建祖,宣慧玉.不完全信息条件下企业R&D最优投资时机的期权博弈分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(4)：50-54
[93]黄超,达庆利.项目投资时机及投资概率分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,37(1)：170-174
[94]阳军.不确定条件下最优投资时机和投资规模决策研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2010
[95]Deng S. J. Stochastic Models of Energy Commodity Prices and Their Applications: Mean-reversion with Jumps and Spikes[R]. Georgia Institute of Technology,2006
[96]Barz G., B. Johnson. Modelling the Prices of Commodities that Are Costly to Store:the Case of Electricity[C]. in Proceedings of the Chicago Risk Management Conference, Chicago, IL, May 1998:329-337
[97]Kaminski V. The Challenge of Pricing and Risk Managing Electricity Derivatives, The US Power Market, Risk[M]. London(UK):Risk Publications,1997:149-171
[98]Duffie D., J. Pan, K. Singleton. Transform Analysis and Option Pricing for Affine Jump-diffusion[R]. Graduate School of Business, Stanford University,1998
[99]Deng S. J., S. S. Oren. Incorporating Operational Characteristics and Startup Costs in Option-Based Valuation of Power Generation Capacity[J]. Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,2003,17(2):155-181
[100]Joskow P. L. Deregulation and Regulatory Reform in the U.S. Electric Power Sector[C]. Brookings-AEI Conference on Deregulation in Network Industries, 2001:128-134
[101]Paul D.Childs, Steven H.Ott, Alexander J.Triantis. Capital Budgeting for Interrelated Projects:A Real Options Approach[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,1998,33(3):305-334
[102]荆新,王化成,刘俊彦.财务管理学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009：273-276
[103]Fabien A. Roques, William J. Nuttall, David M. Newbery. Using Probabilistic Analysis to Value Power Generation Investments Under Uncertainty[R]. Electricity Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge, England,2006
[104]Jifeng Su, Felix F. Wu. Evaluation of Generation Expansion Investment under Competitive Market Environment[C]. in Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society, General Meeting,2005:899-1021
[105]T. R. Limbu, T. K. Saha, J. D. F. McDonald. Probabilistic Cost Benefit Analysis of Generation Investment in a Deregulated Electricity Market[C]. in Proceedings of The IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2006:342-365
[106]Luiz Augusto Barosso, Alexandre Street, Sergio Granville, et al. Bidding Strategies in Auctions for Long-Term Electricity Supply Contracts for New Capacity[C]. in Proceedings of The IEEE Power Engineering Society, General Meeting,2008,3: 11-23
[107]王勇,文福拴,钟志勇,等.基于实物期权理论的发电投资决策和容量充裕性评估[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(19)：1-9
[108]Audun Botterud. Long Term Planning in Restructured Power Systems, in Department of Electrical Power Engineering[D]. The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU),2003
[109]Yoshihiro Yamamoto, Tetsuo Tezuka. Optimal Investment in Power plant under Price Uncertainty[C].41st SICE Annual Conference,2002:89-110
[110]John S. Maybee, Paul H. Randolph, Noel Uri. Optimal Step Function Approximations To Utility Load Duration Curve[J]. Engineering Optimization, 1979,4(2):89-93
[111]电力规划设计总院编.火电工程限额设计参考造价指标(2010年水平)[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2011：143-173
[112]袁燕玲,邓长虹.基于动态规划法的电力市场下最优发电计划的实现[J].现 代电力,2003,20(3,4)：30-34
[113]王承民,郭志忠,于尔铿.电力市场中一种基于动态规划法的经济负荷分配算法[J].电力系统自动化,2000,24(21)：19-22
[114]张志刚,马光文,王黎.基于启发式动态规划方法的发电商最优竞价策略[J].电网技术,2009,33(11)：71-75
[115]杨秀苔,聂端.一种电源扩展动态规划模型与算法[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),1993,16(4)：6-10
[116]吴玉生,周京阳,王功涛,等.发电竞价算法(三)——动态规划法[J].电力系统自动化,2001,24(6)：19-22
[117]钟庆,吴捷,黄武忠,等.动态规划在电力建设项目投资决策中的应用[J].电网技术,2002,26(8)：48-51
[118]Miguel A. Ortega-Vazquez, Daniel S. Kirschen. Assessment of Generation Expansion Mechanisms Using Multi-Agent System[C]. in Proceedings of the IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting,2008:1232-1238
[119]Simone Manganelli, Robert F. Engle. Value at Risk Models in Finance[M]. European Central Bank,2001:1-65
[120]S. T. Loney. A Dynamic Programming Algorithm for Load Duration Curve Fitting[J]. Numerical Methods for Non-Linear Optimization, Academic Press 1971: 203-208
[121]John S. Maybee, Paul H. Randolph., Noel D. Uri. Planning Available Capacity in Electrical Power Generation[J]. Applied Energy,1981,9(1):23-31
[122]PJM. Hourly Load Data.2009 Available from:http://ftp. pjm. com/markets-andoperations/energy/real-time/loadhryr.aspx
[123]N. Lucas, P.Talor. The Strategy Curve:A Method for Representing and Interpreting Generator Bidding Strategies[J]. Utilities Policy,1995,5(1):75-80
[124]Jorge Valenzuela, Mainak Mazumdar. A Probability Model for the Electricity Price Duration Curve Under an Oligopoly Market[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(3):1250-1256
[125]PJM. Real-Time Energy Market,2009, Available from:http.//www.pjm.com/ Home/marketsand operations/energy/real-time.aspx
[2]任莺.中国电力行业面对WTO应对策略研究[D].北京：对外经济贸易大学,2003
[3]刘宝华,王冬容,赵学顺.电力市场建设的几个本质问题探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(1)：1-5
[4]Steven R.Grenadier. Option Exercise Games:An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2002,15(3): 691-721
[5]詹筱霞.基于实物期权的投资最优时机研究『J].江西理工大学学报,2007,28(6)：59-62
[6]臧宝锋.不确定与竞争条件下的发电投资决策研究[D].南京：东南大学,2006
[7]刘扬国,杨晓忠.实物期权在电力建设项目投资决策中的应用[J].中国电力教育(研究生论丛专刊),2005,z3：220-222
[8]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1996：1-50
[9]S.Arimoto.Passivity-based Control[C]. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, San Francisco, CA, USA,2000(1): 227-232
[10]T.Hung-Chi, C.Chia-Chi, L.Sheng-Hui. Passivity-based Nonlinear STATCOM Controller Design for Improving Transient Stability of Power Systems[C].2005 IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition-Asia and Pacific, Dalian, China,2005:1-5
[11]R.Ortega, M.Galaz, A.Astolfi, et al. Transient Stabilization of Multi Machine Power Systems with Nontrivial Transfer Conductances[J]. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,2005,50(1):60-75
[12]R.Ortega, Z.P.Jiang, D.J.Hill. Passivity-based Control of Nonlinear Systems: Atutorial[C]. Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Albuquerque, NM, USA,1997(5):2633-2637
[13]R.Ortega, I.Mareels. Energy-balancing Passivity-based Control[C]. Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Chicago, IL, USA,2000(2):1265-1270
[14]Lin W M, Zhan T S, Tsay M T, et al. The Generation Expansion Planning of the Utility in a Deregulated Environment[C]. Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies, Vo12.Hong Kong(China),2004:702-707
[15]Park J B, Kim J U, Lee K Y. Generation Expansion Planning in a Competitive Environment Using a Genetic Algorithm[C]. Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Society SummerMeeting, Vol 3.Chicago(USA),2002:1169-1172
[16]Prina J. Investment Decision Making in a Deregulated Electric Industry Using Stochastic Dominance[C]. Proceedings of 2000 IEEE Engineering Management Society.Albuquerque(USA),2000:546-551
[17]Kannan S., Slochanal S.M., Padhy N.P. Application and Comparison of Metaheuristic Techniques to Generation Expansion Planning Problem[C]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(1):466-475
[18]Cell G, Pilo F. Optimal Distributed Generation Allocation in MV Distribution Networks[C].22nd IEEE Power Engineering Society International Conference on Power Industry Computer Applications,20-24 May 2001:81-86
[19]Cell G, Pilo F.MV. Network Planning Under Uncertainties on Distributed Generation Penetration[C]. Proceedings of 2001 IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, Voll.Vancouver(Canada),2001:485-490
[20]张文泉.电力技术经济评价理论、方法及应用[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2004：88.132
[21]赵新宇,王锡凡,陈皓勇.火电厂投资风险决策的模型与整体框架[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(8)：7-11
[22]赵新宇,王锡凡,陈皓勇.火电厂投资风险决策的算法和灵敏度分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(10)：15-120
[23]张文泉,董福贵,张世英,等.电厂鲁棒性组合研究[J].华东电力,2003,31(12)： 4-7
[24]Hsu M. Spark Spread Options Are Hot![J]. Electricity Journal,1998,11(2):28-39
[25]Thomas Dangl. Investment and Capacity Choice Under Uncertain Demand[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1999,117(3):415-428
[26]Wang C H. Generation Planning for Electric Power Utilities Under Market Uncertainties:A Real Options Approach, Doctoral Dissertation[D]. Ames, IA, USA:Iowa State University,2001
[27]Prina J. Investment Decision Making in a Deregulated Electric Industry Using Stochastic Dominance[C]. Proceedings of the 2000 IEEE, Engineering Management Society,2000:546-551
[28]MinK.J., Wang C.H. Generation Planning for Inter-related Generation Units:A Real Options Approach[C]. Proceedings of the 2000 Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting.Seattle, WA, United StatesInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.,2000:2261-2265
[29]Deng S.J., Johnson B.Sogomonian A. Exotic Electricity Options and The Valuation of Electricity Generation and Transmission Assets[J]. Decision Support System, 2001,30(3):383-392
[30]Yamamoto H., Tezuka T. Optimal Investment in Power Plant under Price uncertainty[C]. Proceedings of the 41st SICE Annual Conference. Osaka, Japan, 2002:1302-1305
[31]Bar-Ilan A., SulemA., Zanello A. Time-to-build and Capacity Choice[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2002,26(1):69-95
[32]M.Louise Scholes, Mike Wright, Paul Westhead, et al. Information Sharing, Price Negotiation and Management Buy-outs of Private Family-owned Firms[J]. Small Business Economics,2007,29(3):329-349
[33]Murto P., Keppo J.A. Game Model of Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty[J]. International Game Theory Review,2002,4(2):127-140
[34]Y.Z.Sun, Q.J.Liu, Y.H.Song, et al. Hamiltonian Modelling and Nonlinear Disturbance Attenuation Control of TCSC for Improving Power System Stability[J]. IEE Proceedings, Part D, Control Theory and Applications,2002, 149(4):278-284
[35]R.Ortega, A.Van Der Schaft, B.Maschke. Interconnection and Damping Assignment Passivity-based Control of Port-controlled Hamiltonian Systems[J]. Automatica,2002,38(4):585-596
[36]Chaton C, Doucet J A. Uncertainty and Investment in Electricity Generation:The Case of Hydro-Quebec[R]. Canada, Cahiers de Recherche from Universite Laval-Departement d'economique,1999
[37]Botterud A. Long-Term Planning in Restructured Power Systems:Dynamic Modelling of Investments in New Power Generation Under Uncertainty[D]. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway,2003
[38]Ishii J, Yan J. Investment Under Regulatory Uncertainty:U.S. Electricity Generation Investment Since 1996[R]. Center for the Study of Energy Markets, University of California Energy Institute, UC Berkeley.2004,3
[39]Zhou H., HouY., Wu Y, et al. Real Option Evaluation of Generation Asset in Spot Market Considering Operation Constraints[C]. Proceedings of IEEE PES General Meeting. USA,2007:1-6
[40]S.Mei, T.Shen, W.Hu, et al. Robust H Control of a Hamiltonian System with Uncertainty and its Application to a Multi-machine Power System[J]. IEE Proc. Control Theory Appl.2005,152(2):202-210
[41]倪迎春,杨炯.实物期权法在电力项目投资评估中的应用[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2004,2：35-37
[42]李开海.未来不确定条件下电源规划投资模型[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2004,26(1)：119-128
[43]林伯强.项目评估中的风险分析：应用和主要问题[J].金融研究,2003,11：49-63
[44]王良友,张巍,童明光,等.市场环境下基于实物期权理论的发电商投资决策分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(25)：165-169
[45]袁德,李宜君,董全学,等.基于Black-Scholes实物期权定价模型的发电商投资决策分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2008,3(12)：17-20
[46]曾鸣,张金荣,马向春,等.基于动态规划的发电容量投资优化决策模型[J].华东电力,2011,39(3)：0419-0422
[47]梁志宏,杨昆,孙耀唯,等.电力市场下基于实物期权理论的电源投资动态决策模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2006,26(16)：74-79
[48]吉兴全,文福拴.发电投资的实物期权决策方法[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(11)：1-5
[49]李开海,王旭,蒋燕.期权理论在电源规划投资模型中的应用[J].现代电力,2003,20(3)：129-132
[50]苑志勇,陈铁英,罗云峰.基于Nash均衡的电力市场竞价策略分析[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(1)：52-54
[51]Pierre Olivier P, Pauli M. An Oligopolistic Investment Model of the Finnish Electricity Market[J]. Annals of Operations Research,2003,121(1):123-148
[52]Pierre Olivier P. Electricity Market Reforms:Institutional Developments, Investment Dynamics and Game Modelling Doctoral Dissertation[D]. Victoria: University of Victoria,2001
[53]Centeno E, Reneses J, Garcia R, et al. Long-term Market Equilibrium Modelling for Generation Expansion Planning[C]. IEEE Power Tech Conference Proceedings, Voll. Bologna(Italy):2003
[54]T.W. Berrie. Electricity Economics and Planning[M]. Steven Age:The Institution of Engineering and Technology,1992:1-31
[55]Chuang A S, Wu F, Varaiya P.A. Game-Theoretic Model for Generation Expansion Planning:Problem Formulation and Numerical Comparisons[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2001,16(4):885-891
[56]Wei Jing-Yuan, Yves Smeers. Spatial Oligopolistic Electricity Models with Cournot Generators and Regulated Transmission Prices [J]. Operations Research,1999, 47(1):102-112
[57]GW. Ault, C.E.T. Foote, J.R.Mc Donald. Distribution System Planning in Focus[J], IEEE Power Engineering Review,2002,5(22):60-62
[58]Jing-Yuan W., Smeers Y. Spatial Oligopolistic Electricity Models with Cournot Generators and Regulated Transmission Prices[J]. Operation Research,1999,47(1): 102-112
[59]Oren S.S. Ensuring Generation Adequacy in Competitive Electricity Markets[D]. University of California Energy Institute,2003
[60]Williams, J.T. Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets [J]. The Review of Financial Studies,1993,6(4):825-850
[61]文福拴,David A K.加州电力市场失败的教训[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(5)：1-5
[62]安瑛晖,张维.期权博弈理论的方法模型分析与发展[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(1)：38-44
[63]DelSol P., and P. Ghemawat. Strategic Valuation of Investment Under Competition[J]. Interfaces,1999,29(6):42-56
[64]许诺,文福拴,黄民翔.基于期权博弈理论的发电投资决策[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,31(14)：25-30
[65]Botterud A., M.Korps. Modelling of Power Generation Investment Incentives Under Uncertainty in Liberalized Electricity Markets[C]. The 6th IAEE European Conference, Zurich,2004
[66]Cormio C, Dicorato M, Minoia A, et al. A regional Energy Planning Methodology Including Renewable Energy Sources and Environmental Constraints [J]. Renew Sustain Energy Reviews,2003,7(2):99-130
[67]Baldursson, F.M Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty in Oligopoly[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1998,22(4):627-644
[68]Frank H. Knight著.风险、不确定性与利润[M].安佳译.北京：商务印书馆,2006
[69]臧宝锋,胡汉辉,王建兴.电力市场条件下的发电投资均衡[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(2)：41-44
[70]周春生,长青,郭良勤.等待的价值——未来不确定条件下的建设项目投资决策分析[J].经济研究,2001,8：79-85
[71]Myers, S.C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1977,5(2):147-175
[72]TrigeorgisL. Real Options:Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation[M]. Boston:MIT Press.1996
[73]Harrison Gareth P., Piccolo Antonio, Siano Pierluigi, et al. Hybrid GA and OPF Evaluation of Network Capacity for Distributed Generation Connections[J]. Electric Power Systems Research,2008,78(3):392-398
[74]Dixit A K, Pindyck R.S. The Option Approach to Capital Investment[J]. Harvard Business Review,1995,73(3):105-115
[75]Abel A, Dixit A, Eberly J, et al. Options, The Value of Capital and Investment[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1996,111(3):753-777
[76]Abel A.B., J.C.Eberly. Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,1996,63(4):581-593
[77]张俊国,杨丽琴,潘德惠.投资机会期权价值的进一步研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(3)：22-25
[78]McDonald R.L., Siegel. D.. Investment and the Valuation of Firms when Thereis an Option to Shut Down[J]. International Economic Review,1985,26(2):331-349
[79]阿维纳什·迪克西特,罗伯特·平迪克.不确定条件下的投资[M].朱勇译,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002
[80]康重庆,白利超,夏清等.电力市场中发电商的风险决策[J].电机工程学报,2004,24(8)：2-6.
[81]Deng S. J., Johnsony B., Sogomonianz A.. Spark Spread Options and The Valuation of Electricity Generation Assets[C]. Proceedings of the 32nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,1999:1-6
[82]Black F, Scholes M. The pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(3):637-654
[83]Merton R. Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns Are Discontinuous[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1976,3(1-2):125-144.
[84]McDonald R. L., Siegel D., The Value of Waiting to Invest[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1986,101(4):707-727
[85]Trigeorgis L, Mason S. Valuing Managerial Flexibility[J]. Midland Corporate Finance Journal,1987,5(1):14-21
[86]Huisman K. Technology Investment:A Game Theoretic Real Options Approach[M]. Springer Netherlands,2001
[87]Kemna A. Case Studies on Real Options[J]. Financial Management,1993,22(3): 259-270.
[88]范龙振,张子刚.投资机会价值的研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1996,11：64-66
[89]范龙振,唐国兴.经营柔性、价值评价与投资决策[J].上海经济研究,1998,4：38-40
[90]范龙振,唐国兴.投资机会价值的期权评价方法[J].管理工程学报,2000,14(4)：34-37
[91]夏晖,曾勇,唐小我.企业采用新技术的最优时机研究[J].系统工程学报,2004,19(6)：607-614
[92]吴建祖,宣慧玉.不完全信息条件下企业R&D最优投资时机的期权博弈分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(4)：50-54
[93]黄超,达庆利.项目投资时机及投资概率分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,37(1)：170-174
[94]阳军.不确定条件下最优投资时机和投资规模决策研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2010
[95]Deng S. J. Stochastic Models of Energy Commodity Prices and Their Applications: Mean-reversion with Jumps and Spikes[R]. Georgia Institute of Technology,2006
[96]Barz G., B. Johnson. Modelling the Prices of Commodities that Are Costly to Store:the Case of Electricity[C]. in Proceedings of the Chicago Risk Management Conference, Chicago, IL, May 1998:329-337
[97]Kaminski V. The Challenge of Pricing and Risk Managing Electricity Derivatives, The US Power Market, Risk[M]. London(UK):Risk Publications,1997:149-171
[98]Duffie D., J. Pan, K. Singleton. Transform Analysis and Option Pricing for Affine Jump-diffusion[R]. Graduate School of Business, Stanford University,1998
[99]Deng S. J., S. S. Oren. Incorporating Operational Characteristics and Startup Costs in Option-Based Valuation of Power Generation Capacity[J]. Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,2003,17(2):155-181
[100]Joskow P. L. Deregulation and Regulatory Reform in the U.S. Electric Power Sector[C]. Brookings-AEI Conference on Deregulation in Network Industries, 2001:128-134
[101]Paul D.Childs, Steven H.Ott, Alexander J.Triantis. Capital Budgeting for Interrelated Projects:A Real Options Approach[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,1998,33(3):305-334
[102]荆新,王化成,刘俊彦.财务管理学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009：273-276
[103]Fabien A. Roques, William J. Nuttall, David M. Newbery. Using Probabilistic Analysis to Value Power Generation Investments Under Uncertainty[R]. Electricity Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge, England,2006
[104]Jifeng Su, Felix F. Wu. Evaluation of Generation Expansion Investment under Competitive Market Environment[C]. in Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society, General Meeting,2005:899-1021
[105]T. R. Limbu, T. K. Saha, J. D. F. McDonald. Probabilistic Cost Benefit Analysis of Generation Investment in a Deregulated Electricity Market[C]. in Proceedings of The IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2006:342-365
[106]Luiz Augusto Barosso, Alexandre Street, Sergio Granville, et al. Bidding Strategies in Auctions for Long-Term Electricity Supply Contracts for New Capacity[C]. in Proceedings of The IEEE Power Engineering Society, General Meeting,2008,3: 11-23
[107]王勇,文福拴,钟志勇,等.基于实物期权理论的发电投资决策和容量充裕性评估[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(19)：1-9
[108]Audun Botterud. Long Term Planning in Restructured Power Systems, in Department of Electrical Power Engineering[D]. The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU),2003
[109]Yoshihiro Yamamoto, Tetsuo Tezuka. Optimal Investment in Power plant under Price Uncertainty[C].41st SICE Annual Conference,2002:89-110
[110]John S. Maybee, Paul H. Randolph, Noel Uri. Optimal Step Function Approximations To Utility Load Duration Curve[J]. Engineering Optimization, 1979,4(2):89-93
[111]电力规划设计总院编.火电工程限额设计参考造价指标(2010年水平)[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2011：143-173
[112]袁燕玲,邓长虹.基于动态规划法的电力市场下最优发电计划的实现[J].现 代电力,2003,20(3,4)：30-34
[113]王承民,郭志忠,于尔铿.电力市场中一种基于动态规划法的经济负荷分配算法[J].电力系统自动化,2000,24(21)：19-22
[114]张志刚,马光文,王黎.基于启发式动态规划方法的发电商最优竞价策略[J].电网技术,2009,33(11)：71-75
[115]杨秀苔,聂端.一种电源扩展动态规划模型与算法[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),1993,16(4)：6-10
[116]吴玉生,周京阳,王功涛,等.发电竞价算法(三)——动态规划法[J].电力系统自动化,2001,24(6)：19-22
[117]钟庆,吴捷,黄武忠,等.动态规划在电力建设项目投资决策中的应用[J].电网技术,2002,26(8)：48-51
[118]Miguel A. Ortega-Vazquez, Daniel S. Kirschen. Assessment of Generation Expansion Mechanisms Using Multi-Agent System[C]. in Proceedings of the IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting,2008:1232-1238
[119]Simone Manganelli, Robert F. Engle. Value at Risk Models in Finance[M]. European Central Bank,2001:1-65
[120]S. T. Loney. A Dynamic Programming Algorithm for Load Duration Curve Fitting[J]. Numerical Methods for Non-Linear Optimization, Academic Press 1971: 203-208
[121]John S. Maybee, Paul H. Randolph., Noel D. Uri. Planning Available Capacity in Electrical Power Generation[J]. Applied Energy,1981,9(1):23-31
[122]PJM. Hourly Load Data.2009 Available from:http://ftp. pjm. com/markets-andoperations/energy/real-time/loadhryr.aspx
[123]N. Lucas, P.Talor. The Strategy Curve:A Method for Representing and Interpreting Generator Bidding Strategies[J]. Utilities Policy,1995,5(1):75-80
[124]Jorge Valenzuela, Mainak Mazumdar. A Probability Model for the Electricity Price Duration Curve Under an Oligopoly Market[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(3):1250-1256
[125]PJM. Real-Time Energy Market,2009, Available from:http.//www.pjm.com/ Home/marketsand operations/energy/real-time.aspx
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |