区域典型物质与能量代谢模拟及优化分析研究
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摘要
我国实现可持续发展面临着严峻的资源环境压力。城市作为我国经济活动和居民生活高度聚集的地区，是分析和调控资源代谢的重要空间。当前，我国城市化加速，工业化中期阶段重化工业比重提高，居民消费快速升级，这三种驱动力共同作用，推动了我国区域代谢的快速演化。如何构建有效的分析方法和调控优化工具，已经成为我国区域代谢管理迫切需要解决的问题。
论文构建了包括区域代谢驱动力作用机制、区域代谢主要因素相互关系和内部结构演化规律，以及区域代谢调控优化在内的区域代谢分析和优化工具。首先，本文基于PLS-Path模型，对我国282个地级以上城市的区域代谢驱动模式进行了解析，结果表明聚集效应具有最为显著的提高资源效率的作用，而产业结构与发展水平则是影响区域代谢强度的主要因素，政府投入和基础设施的影响尚不显著。
为了分析区域代谢的合理性和循环经济水平，论文构建了基于消费经济学中的ELES模型和EW-MFA框架的区域代谢结构演化分析框架，用以分析区域代谢与城市化、工业化过程中主要代谢因素之间的关系。在此基础上，论文基于循环经济理念对SFA框架进行扩展，在正向、逆向和区域间物流核算的基础上，构建了反映区域代谢内部结构演化的指标体系，用以描述区域代谢随城市化、工业化和消费升级过程中的演化模式和规律，并在苏州进行了实证研究。
论文针对空间不敏感的区域代谢，开发了基于蒙特卡罗模拟和HSY算法的资源约束条件下的区域发展的敏感行业识别和资源承载力风险分析工具，识别了大连土地资源约束下的敏感工业及其未来的适宜规模；针对空间敏感的区域代谢，开发了基于GIS技术和CBA分析的区域共生潜力分析工具，并识别了苏州的废热共生利用潜力。
论文分析了我国城市化、工业化进程对不同种类区域物质和能量代谢的规模和内部结构的影响，开发了区域代谢的优化工具，并在苏州和大连的区域代谢调控中进行了应用。
Resources and energy shortages, resulted from rapid economic growth, has beenthe major challenge for China to achieve sustainable development. is facing today.Nowadays, China’s urbanization process has accelerated, industrialization process isabout to enter late-industrialization stage, and consumption structure has upgraded aswell. These three driving forces have promoted the rapid evolution of regionalmaterial and energy metabolism. Urban region, as the agglomeration of populationand economic activities, inherently, has become the key of regional metabolism, therequirement for a powerful analysis methodology and an optimization policy tools areof great ugency.
In this thesis, three methodologies for regional metabolism analysis aredeveloped based on economics and statistics model. First, A methodology based onPLS-Path model is established to analyze the driving forces pattern of regionalmetabolism, section data of282cities were used to identify the model, the resultshowed that agglomeration effect have the most obvious dematerialization effort; andindustrial structure has a complex impact, the growth of secondary industry will raisethe regional resources consumption intensity, while the impact of tertiary industry, i.e.service industry, is generally neutral, the expected absolute dematerialization effort isnot observed; governence and transportation infrastructure do not show obviousaffection. To analyze the evolution pattern of regoinal metabolism, ELES model isintroduced to traditional MFA framework, the case study of Suzhou city revealed that,urbanization is the main driving force for construction material metabolism evolution,while industrialization promote the metabolism evolution of industiral material andsemi-manufactured goods, and the metabolism evolution of biomass and consumergoods are mainly affected by consumption upgrade. Based on resourceproductivity theory and circular economy theory, analysis and assessmentmethodologies are established for internal structure evolution of regionalmetabolism, according to the accounting results of forward material flow, reverse material flow and interregional material flow, indicators are introduced to reflect theregional resources productivities and circular economy development, and evaluate theinternal structure of regional metabolism. Suzhou city is chosen as a case study forregional metabolism analysis with the above methodologies.
The thesis then developed optimization tools for the regional metabolism. Tofulfill the optimization requirement at city master plan level, an analysis tool based onMonte Carlo simulation and HSY algorithm was developed, which could identify thesensitive industry for major risk of breaking through regional resources capacity, anda proper scale of the sensitive industry could be analyzed as well. Dalian city ischosen as a case study, the sensitive industries under the regional land resourcesconstraint are identified, and their proper scales in the future are given as well. Tofulfill the optimization requirement at spatial plan level, a symbiosis potentialanalysis tool based on GIS technology is developed, by which potential linkage ofwaste recycling or energy utilization between enterprises and communities could beidentified, and an optimized plans of symbiosis network most profitable can beevaluated by CBA analysis and Integer Programming. Using this tool, the symbiosispotential of waste heat utilization is analyzed for Suzhou city as a case study.
The thesis analyzed the impact of urbanization and industrialization processeson different regional substances and energy metabolism, and regional metabolismoptimization tools are developed and applied in regional metabolism controllingaffairs in Suzhou city and Dalian city.
论文构建了包括区域代谢驱动力作用机制、区域代谢主要因素相互关系和内部结构演化规律，以及区域代谢调控优化在内的区域代谢分析和优化工具。首先，本文基于PLS-Path模型，对我国282个地级以上城市的区域代谢驱动模式进行了解析，结果表明聚集效应具有最为显著的提高资源效率的作用，而产业结构与发展水平则是影响区域代谢强度的主要因素，政府投入和基础设施的影响尚不显著。
为了分析区域代谢的合理性和循环经济水平，论文构建了基于消费经济学中的ELES模型和EW-MFA框架的区域代谢结构演化分析框架，用以分析区域代谢与城市化、工业化过程中主要代谢因素之间的关系。在此基础上，论文基于循环经济理念对SFA框架进行扩展，在正向、逆向和区域间物流核算的基础上，构建了反映区域代谢内部结构演化的指标体系，用以描述区域代谢随城市化、工业化和消费升级过程中的演化模式和规律，并在苏州进行了实证研究。
论文针对空间不敏感的区域代谢，开发了基于蒙特卡罗模拟和HSY算法的资源约束条件下的区域发展的敏感行业识别和资源承载力风险分析工具，识别了大连土地资源约束下的敏感工业及其未来的适宜规模；针对空间敏感的区域代谢，开发了基于GIS技术和CBA分析的区域共生潜力分析工具，并识别了苏州的废热共生利用潜力。
论文分析了我国城市化、工业化进程对不同种类区域物质和能量代谢的规模和内部结构的影响，开发了区域代谢的优化工具，并在苏州和大连的区域代谢调控中进行了应用。
Resources and energy shortages, resulted from rapid economic growth, has beenthe major challenge for China to achieve sustainable development. is facing today.Nowadays, China’s urbanization process has accelerated, industrialization process isabout to enter late-industrialization stage, and consumption structure has upgraded aswell. These three driving forces have promoted the rapid evolution of regionalmaterial and energy metabolism. Urban region, as the agglomeration of populationand economic activities, inherently, has become the key of regional metabolism, therequirement for a powerful analysis methodology and an optimization policy tools areof great ugency.
In this thesis, three methodologies for regional metabolism analysis aredeveloped based on economics and statistics model. First, A methodology based onPLS-Path model is established to analyze the driving forces pattern of regionalmetabolism, section data of282cities were used to identify the model, the resultshowed that agglomeration effect have the most obvious dematerialization effort; andindustrial structure has a complex impact, the growth of secondary industry will raisethe regional resources consumption intensity, while the impact of tertiary industry, i.e.service industry, is generally neutral, the expected absolute dematerialization effort isnot observed; governence and transportation infrastructure do not show obviousaffection. To analyze the evolution pattern of regoinal metabolism, ELES model isintroduced to traditional MFA framework, the case study of Suzhou city revealed that,urbanization is the main driving force for construction material metabolism evolution,while industrialization promote the metabolism evolution of industiral material andsemi-manufactured goods, and the metabolism evolution of biomass and consumergoods are mainly affected by consumption upgrade. Based on resourceproductivity theory and circular economy theory, analysis and assessmentmethodologies are established for internal structure evolution of regionalmetabolism, according to the accounting results of forward material flow, reverse material flow and interregional material flow, indicators are introduced to reflect theregional resources productivities and circular economy development, and evaluate theinternal structure of regional metabolism. Suzhou city is chosen as a case study forregional metabolism analysis with the above methodologies.
The thesis then developed optimization tools for the regional metabolism. Tofulfill the optimization requirement at city master plan level, an analysis tool based onMonte Carlo simulation and HSY algorithm was developed, which could identify thesensitive industry for major risk of breaking through regional resources capacity, anda proper scale of the sensitive industry could be analyzed as well. Dalian city ischosen as a case study, the sensitive industries under the regional land resourcesconstraint are identified, and their proper scales in the future are given as well. Tofulfill the optimization requirement at spatial plan level, a symbiosis potentialanalysis tool based on GIS technology is developed, by which potential linkage ofwaste recycling or energy utilization between enterprises and communities could beidentified, and an optimized plans of symbiosis network most profitable can beevaluated by CBA analysis and Integer Programming. Using this tool, the symbiosispotential of waste heat utilization is analyzed for Suzhou city as a case study.
The thesis analyzed the impact of urbanization and industrialization processeson different regional substances and energy metabolism, and regional metabolismoptimization tools are developed and applied in regional metabolism controllingaffairs in Suzhou city and Dalian city.
引文
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