国际碳交易定价机制及中国碳排放权价格研究
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摘要
气候变化问题是当今全球共同关注的世界性问题,也是人类在可持续发展中面临的最大挑战。然而在该问题的背后,实际上是国家发展权的问题,是一个政治问题,同时更是经济问题。
《京都议定书》中规定了发达国家的减排责任,并设立了三种碳排放权交易机制：IET、JI和CDM,旨在使发达国家以最少的减排成本完成碳减排目标,同时也帮助发展中国家实现可持续发展。三种机制中前者是在发达国家之间进行的,而后两者都是基于项目的碳交易,JI主要针对发达国家之间的碳交易项目,对于中国而言,当前的碳交易形式主要是在附件1国家的帮助下,开展满足“额外性”原则的CDM项目,并将CDM活动产生的减排量出售给附件1国家。在这种机制下,中国目前开展了共计3851项CDM项目(截止2012年3月),这些项目每年可产生6.41亿吨的年减排量。而中国这些巨量的碳减排权卖出后,得到的是少量的和实际价值远不匹配的资金。本文通过对国际碳排放权定价机制的理论分析,探讨了影响国际碳价格的内在因素和外在因素；通过人均收入与人均碳排放之间的二次函数关系的实证测算和情景分析法计算了中国的环境库兹涅兹曲线峰值时间,并分析了当前影响中国碳排放量大小的几个因素的贡献度。最后在分析中国碳交易市场现状的基础上,分析了中国碳价格(CRES)与国际EUAS价格形成落差的原因,指出在全球气候变化的各国责任终究要被清算的情况下,中国的CDM项目存在“低处的果实先被摘掉”的风险,并为中国的碳交易提供政策建议和意见。具体来说,本文主要包括以下几方面的主要内容：
第一,运用MAC的理论,依照各国边际减排成本的不同,分析了通过国际间的碳交易可以降低全球的碳减排成本。运用STIRPAT模型结合阻滞增长模型和Black-scholes期权定价公式,得出一国碳排放权的解析解,并针对解析解公式对排放量Ⅰ求偏导,得出在其他因素保持不变的前提下,碳排放成本C为排放量Ⅰ的增函数,即两者趋势相同；同时用解析解公式对GDP波动率σ求偏导,当GDP增长的波动率增大时,T时刻碳排放量Ⅰ超过规定阈值7的风险增加,因此潜在支出就会增加。
第二,运用IO模型和完全消耗系数矩阵对中国2007年的投入产出表及进出口海关数据进行实证计算,得出中国2007年一年的贸易隐含碳规模为217602万吨。碳平衡占中国消费总碳排放量的35.82%,也就是说国内的总碳排放中有大约三分之一的部分是为国外排放的。并理论分析了这些隐含碳对国际碳交易供需关系的影响。
第三,引用已有的研究成果分析了影响国际碳价格走势的外部因素,包括能源价格和碳价格的相关性,异质性环境对碳价格的影响,碳排放权的可储存性对碳价格的影响,以及政府限价对碳价格的影响。
第四,运用人均收入与碳排放的二次函数关系表达式求出中国EKC到达峰值的时间为2025年左右,并计算出当人均收入达到2005年不变价格43590元时,中国EKC曲线的拐点就会出现；同时还运用了情景分析法预测了中国碳排放出现的峰值及拐点。为中国加入绝对减排队伍的时点选择提供参考。
第五,在描述中国碳市场发展现状的基础上,分析了在交易过程中由于交易成本和市场风险等的影响,导致中国CDM的CERs价格远低于国际的EUA。价格。
第六,运用比较不同时点净现值(NPV)大小的数理分析方法理论分析了中国的CDM面临的“低处的果实先被摘掉的风险；提供了全球最有可能采用的气候变化责任的国际分担方案以及CDM项目在中国的未来和可能的替代品。
最后,结合以上各章节分析的结果,得出中国应该充分认识当前碳交易过程中存在的种种风险,通过进行碳排放权的储备或赢得在国际上开创“碳排放美式期权”的局面,调整中国CDM对国际CER市场的供给关系,修正当前的扭曲价格。并建议中国调整进出口的规模和产业结构,关注低碳方面的RE和EE金融建设,加强节能环保方面的宣传,并注意利用国际谈判在国际气候变化会议上争取自己的利益；同时也应积极创造条件,使国内的碳交易市场更快成长,更快成熟。
Climate change is receiving the global attention among the world, and is also the biggest challenge to the sustainable development of humanity. But actually, behind the problem, it is a problem of national development right. It is a political problem, as well as an economic problem.
The "Kyoto Protocol" prescribes the responsibility of the developed countries and sets up three kinds of carbon trading mechanisms:IET, JI and CDM, which designed to make the developed countries complete the carbon reduction targets with minimal costs, helping developing countries to achieve sustainable development. The former is carried out among the developed countries, and The others are executed in the form of projects. JI is traded from developed country to developed country. For China, the only trade form is CDM, Which develops the project satisfied the "extra" principle and sales the emission reduction permits to Annex1countries. Under this mechanism, China currently has carried out a total of3851CDM projects (at the end of March2012). These items can produce an annual641Mtons of emissions permits. China achieved a small amount of money through the exchange of these massive carbon emission rights. But actually, the practical value of these rights is much more than the received money.
Through analyzing the international carbon emission right pricing theory, this article explores the internal impact factors and the external impact factors of carbon price. It calculates the peak time of Chinese Environmental Kuznets curve through reviewing the relation between per capita income and per capita carbon emission. It also calculates the peak time through scenario analysis. This article analyzes the contributions of the impacting factors of the current China's carbon emission. Finally, this article analyzes the reasons of price gap between CERs and EUAs. It points out that Chinese CDM projects exist the risk of "low-hanging fruits have been first removed" when the international carbon emission responsibility will be checked. It puts forward some policy advices. Specifically, this article includes the following contents:
Firstly, using MAC theory, the paper analyzes that international carbon trading can reduce global carbon abatement cost. It obtains a country carbon emissions analytical solution through the use of STIRPAT model, block growth model and Black-scholes option pricing formula. Using I seeking partial derivative to the formula, We can conclude that C is I's increasing function when other factors remain unchanged. This means that I and C have the same trend. Using (GDP volatility) seeking partial derivative to the formula, when GDP volatility increases, when the point that carbon emissions I exceeds a prescribed threshold, the potential spending will increase.
Secondly, this thesis calculates the quantity of embodied carbon of Chinese in2007using IO model and figures out that the scale is2176.02Mtons. The quantity of Carbon balance is35.82%of Chinese total carbon consumption emissions, that is to say, about1/3amount ascribes to abroad. And it analyzes the embodied carbon's effect to the supply demand relation and price of international carbon permits.
Thirdly, it analyzes the external factors citing the literature research results, including the correlation between carbon price and energy price, the heterogeneity influence of the environment to carbon price, the influence of carbon emission permits'storability on carbon price, price floors'influence on carbon price.
Fourth, this thesis comes out that the Chinese EKC peak time is around the year of2025, and works out that China EKC curve inflection point will appear on the time that the per capita changeless2005price of43590yuan. It also predicts the peaks and inflection points of carbon emission in China using scenario analysis. It provides reference to the problem when China joined the absolute reduction team of carbon emission.
Fifth, it describes the reasons which led to the gap between the price of Chinese CDM'CERS and the price of EUAS.
Sixth, this thesis analyzes the risk of "low-hanging fruits have been first removed" using NPV method, and offers the most likely responsibility sharing scheme.
Finally, it concludes that China should fully understand the various risks in current carbon trading process. China should adjust CERs market supplyment through establishing "carbon emissions reserve pool" or achieving the "carbon American option ", correcting the current distortion price. It also suggests that China should adjust the import and export scale, adjust the industrial structure, pay attention to RE&EE financial construction, strengthen energy-saving environmental protection publicity, pay attention to the use of international negotiation, do our best on making domestic carbon trading market grow faster and maturely.
《京都议定书》中规定了发达国家的减排责任,并设立了三种碳排放权交易机制：IET、JI和CDM,旨在使发达国家以最少的减排成本完成碳减排目标,同时也帮助发展中国家实现可持续发展。三种机制中前者是在发达国家之间进行的,而后两者都是基于项目的碳交易,JI主要针对发达国家之间的碳交易项目,对于中国而言,当前的碳交易形式主要是在附件1国家的帮助下,开展满足“额外性”原则的CDM项目,并将CDM活动产生的减排量出售给附件1国家。在这种机制下,中国目前开展了共计3851项CDM项目(截止2012年3月),这些项目每年可产生6.41亿吨的年减排量。而中国这些巨量的碳减排权卖出后,得到的是少量的和实际价值远不匹配的资金。本文通过对国际碳排放权定价机制的理论分析,探讨了影响国际碳价格的内在因素和外在因素；通过人均收入与人均碳排放之间的二次函数关系的实证测算和情景分析法计算了中国的环境库兹涅兹曲线峰值时间,并分析了当前影响中国碳排放量大小的几个因素的贡献度。最后在分析中国碳交易市场现状的基础上,分析了中国碳价格(CRES)与国际EUAS价格形成落差的原因,指出在全球气候变化的各国责任终究要被清算的情况下,中国的CDM项目存在“低处的果实先被摘掉”的风险,并为中国的碳交易提供政策建议和意见。具体来说,本文主要包括以下几方面的主要内容：
第一,运用MAC的理论,依照各国边际减排成本的不同,分析了通过国际间的碳交易可以降低全球的碳减排成本。运用STIRPAT模型结合阻滞增长模型和Black-scholes期权定价公式,得出一国碳排放权的解析解,并针对解析解公式对排放量Ⅰ求偏导,得出在其他因素保持不变的前提下,碳排放成本C为排放量Ⅰ的增函数,即两者趋势相同；同时用解析解公式对GDP波动率σ求偏导,当GDP增长的波动率增大时,T时刻碳排放量Ⅰ超过规定阈值7的风险增加,因此潜在支出就会增加。
第二,运用IO模型和完全消耗系数矩阵对中国2007年的投入产出表及进出口海关数据进行实证计算,得出中国2007年一年的贸易隐含碳规模为217602万吨。碳平衡占中国消费总碳排放量的35.82%,也就是说国内的总碳排放中有大约三分之一的部分是为国外排放的。并理论分析了这些隐含碳对国际碳交易供需关系的影响。
第三,引用已有的研究成果分析了影响国际碳价格走势的外部因素,包括能源价格和碳价格的相关性,异质性环境对碳价格的影响,碳排放权的可储存性对碳价格的影响,以及政府限价对碳价格的影响。
第四,运用人均收入与碳排放的二次函数关系表达式求出中国EKC到达峰值的时间为2025年左右,并计算出当人均收入达到2005年不变价格43590元时,中国EKC曲线的拐点就会出现；同时还运用了情景分析法预测了中国碳排放出现的峰值及拐点。为中国加入绝对减排队伍的时点选择提供参考。
第五,在描述中国碳市场发展现状的基础上,分析了在交易过程中由于交易成本和市场风险等的影响,导致中国CDM的CERs价格远低于国际的EUA。价格。
第六,运用比较不同时点净现值(NPV)大小的数理分析方法理论分析了中国的CDM面临的“低处的果实先被摘掉的风险；提供了全球最有可能采用的气候变化责任的国际分担方案以及CDM项目在中国的未来和可能的替代品。
最后,结合以上各章节分析的结果,得出中国应该充分认识当前碳交易过程中存在的种种风险,通过进行碳排放权的储备或赢得在国际上开创“碳排放美式期权”的局面,调整中国CDM对国际CER市场的供给关系,修正当前的扭曲价格。并建议中国调整进出口的规模和产业结构,关注低碳方面的RE和EE金融建设,加强节能环保方面的宣传,并注意利用国际谈判在国际气候变化会议上争取自己的利益；同时也应积极创造条件,使国内的碳交易市场更快成长,更快成熟。
Climate change is receiving the global attention among the world, and is also the biggest challenge to the sustainable development of humanity. But actually, behind the problem, it is a problem of national development right. It is a political problem, as well as an economic problem.
The "Kyoto Protocol" prescribes the responsibility of the developed countries and sets up three kinds of carbon trading mechanisms:IET, JI and CDM, which designed to make the developed countries complete the carbon reduction targets with minimal costs, helping developing countries to achieve sustainable development. The former is carried out among the developed countries, and The others are executed in the form of projects. JI is traded from developed country to developed country. For China, the only trade form is CDM, Which develops the project satisfied the "extra" principle and sales the emission reduction permits to Annex1countries. Under this mechanism, China currently has carried out a total of3851CDM projects (at the end of March2012). These items can produce an annual641Mtons of emissions permits. China achieved a small amount of money through the exchange of these massive carbon emission rights. But actually, the practical value of these rights is much more than the received money.
Through analyzing the international carbon emission right pricing theory, this article explores the internal impact factors and the external impact factors of carbon price. It calculates the peak time of Chinese Environmental Kuznets curve through reviewing the relation between per capita income and per capita carbon emission. It also calculates the peak time through scenario analysis. This article analyzes the contributions of the impacting factors of the current China's carbon emission. Finally, this article analyzes the reasons of price gap between CERs and EUAs. It points out that Chinese CDM projects exist the risk of "low-hanging fruits have been first removed" when the international carbon emission responsibility will be checked. It puts forward some policy advices. Specifically, this article includes the following contents:
Firstly, using MAC theory, the paper analyzes that international carbon trading can reduce global carbon abatement cost. It obtains a country carbon emissions analytical solution through the use of STIRPAT model, block growth model and Black-scholes option pricing formula. Using I seeking partial derivative to the formula, We can conclude that C is I's increasing function when other factors remain unchanged. This means that I and C have the same trend. Using (GDP volatility) seeking partial derivative to the formula, when GDP volatility increases, when the point that carbon emissions I exceeds a prescribed threshold, the potential spending will increase.
Secondly, this thesis calculates the quantity of embodied carbon of Chinese in2007using IO model and figures out that the scale is2176.02Mtons. The quantity of Carbon balance is35.82%of Chinese total carbon consumption emissions, that is to say, about1/3amount ascribes to abroad. And it analyzes the embodied carbon's effect to the supply demand relation and price of international carbon permits.
Thirdly, it analyzes the external factors citing the literature research results, including the correlation between carbon price and energy price, the heterogeneity influence of the environment to carbon price, the influence of carbon emission permits'storability on carbon price, price floors'influence on carbon price.
Fourth, this thesis comes out that the Chinese EKC peak time is around the year of2025, and works out that China EKC curve inflection point will appear on the time that the per capita changeless2005price of43590yuan. It also predicts the peaks and inflection points of carbon emission in China using scenario analysis. It provides reference to the problem when China joined the absolute reduction team of carbon emission.
Fifth, it describes the reasons which led to the gap between the price of Chinese CDM'CERS and the price of EUAS.
Sixth, this thesis analyzes the risk of "low-hanging fruits have been first removed" using NPV method, and offers the most likely responsibility sharing scheme.
Finally, it concludes that China should fully understand the various risks in current carbon trading process. China should adjust CERs market supplyment through establishing "carbon emissions reserve pool" or achieving the "carbon American option ", correcting the current distortion price. It also suggests that China should adjust the import and export scale, adjust the industrial structure, pay attention to RE&EE financial construction, strengthen energy-saving environmental protection publicity, pay attention to the use of international negotiation, do our best on making domestic carbon trading market grow faster and maturely.
引文
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