可持续发展实验区发展状态评估研究
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摘要
伴随着世界范围内自然资源的快速消耗和生态环境的急剧退化,可持续发展已成为世界各国共同追求的发展目标。国家可持续发展实验区(文中简称“实验区”)的建设是中国可持续发展的内在需求,是探索可持续发展理论的重要实验示范基地,建立科学的实验区发展状态评估体系,探究和监测实验区发展过程中存在的问题,适时提出应对策略,对实验区的建设发展具有重要意义。论文结合地理学、生态学、生态经济学、区域可持续发展等学科的有关理论和方法,以榆林实验区为例,将其视为具有明确边界的区域生态经济系统,从两种不同的视角,分别对实验区的发展状态(发展水平、协调性及生态效率)进行了分析比较,揭示了制约榆林实验区可持续发展的症结,并提出了可供选择的对策；通过两种方法的比较分析,得出基于能值和物质流分析整合的方法对于实验区发展状态的评估更为科学。
主要研究结论如下：
(1)对国内外关于实验区及其生态经济系统的相关研究进行详尽回顾与梳理后认为：实验区研究理论不完善、研究方法单一和研究视角一维化是当前研究需要突破的关键,而生态经济系统研究中能值理论、物质流分析理论及其生态效率理论的引入,可赋予实验区研究新的突破口。因此从新的研究尺度重新审视和更加深入的研究实验区,努力实现实验区研究理论和方法创新,促使实验区研究取得突破性进展非常必要。
(2)基于实验区建设指标和能值分析指标分别对榆林实验区协调性和发展水平进行评价,结果存在明显差异。实验区建设指标评价结果显示：榆林实验区协调性和可持续发展水平在研究期内均呈现不断增长的趋势：但与其他地级城市实验区进行横向比较发现,其环境子系统发展水平和可持续发展水平均居于后列。能值指标评价结果显示：研究期内系统的协调性和可持续发展水平均呈现逐年下降的趋势,即榆林实验区经济的强势增长以资源的过度消耗和环境的加速恶化为代价。已有研究已证实,能值指标评估结果更具科学性,但能值方法在关于系统对环境排放影响的评估方面略显薄弱,而能值方法与物质流方法的整合可弥补上述不足。
(3)基于物质代谢指标和能值—物质流指标分别对榆林实验区的生态效率进行分析,结论比较相似。研究期内,资源效率、环境效率和生态效率均呈现不断增高之势；环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKV)转折点出现的时间均在2015年前后；经济发展和生态压力(资源环境压力)之间还未出现绝对“脱钩”；实验区经济发展的弱可持续性特征明显。由于与物质流分析指标直接物质输入(DMI)和生产过程排放(DPO)相联系,因而能值—物质流生态效率分析方法更具综合性,其对经济发展与生态压力之间的症结分解的更为深刻：生态效率的提高可以促进经济增长,抑制生态压力;生态效率的提高是经济增长与生态压力实现脱钩的充要条件：相比于废物排放、资源投入对生态压力的升高具有更加明显的推动作用。
(4)通过对各种评价结果的综合分析,揭示出制约榆林实验区协调、可持续发展的六方面问题。即：以“高投入、高产出、高污染”为特征的经济发展模式;经济结构不合理,农业经济基础薄弱;科技发展水平低,工业化水平低;循环经济发展水平总体偏低；环境承载力逐年降低,环境负荷不断增大：生态效率在逐年提高,但以生态压力的不断增加为代价。
(5)依据本文的研究结果,确定榆林实验区未来可持续发展的主要方向为：以提高系统的生态效率和发展循环经济为重点,走低消耗、低污染、生态环保的可持续发展之路。具体应从七个层面着手：改变干部考核制度,弱化“唯GDP”目标导向；建立技术支撑体系；探索新型经济发展模式,优化升级产业结构；加大科技创新与制度创新,促进减物质化；合理有序开发利用本地资源;积极发展循环经济；综合整治生态环境。
(6)通过实验区发展状态不同评估方法应用效果的对比分析,本文揭示出：能值分析长于系统发展水平及协调性的评估,但对系统环境排放影响的评估薄弱；能值—物质流生态效率分析长于系统经济发展和生态压力之间关系的评估,弥补了单纯能值分析的缺陷,有利于系统的整体优化；能值分析及能值—物质流生态效率分析所涉及的指标内涵丰富且深刻,虽然资料获取工作量大,计算过程也比较复杂,但评价结果可操作性强,且更具科学性和实用性。总之,能值分析和物质流分析方法的整合提供了对实验区发展状态判定的新途径,并且能够评估与比较不同等级、不同规模实验区的发展状态,对寻求实验区发展症因和优化实验区发展有着直接的意义。
综上所述,本文首次将以能值—物质流为核心的二维研究方法应用于国家可持续发展实验区发展状态评估的研究中;通过大量的比较分析论证,该方法对实验区的评估结果更科学,揭示的问题更深刻,不仅为实验区的深入研究寻找到了突破口,而且丰富和拓展了实验区研究的理论和方法体系。
With the resources consumption rapidly and environmental degradation sharply worldwide, sustainable development has become the common development objectives being pursued by countries of the world. The construction of China National Sustainable Communities (CNSCs) is the intrinsic demand of China's sustainable development, the important experimental demonstration base to explore sustainable development theory. Its have the important meaning for the construction and development of CNSCs to establish a scientific assessment system of development state, so as to exploring and monitoring the existing problems in the process of the development of CNSCs and putting forward some countermeasures timely. Taking Yulin CNSCs as an example and regarding it as a regional ecological economic system with clearly boundary, this thesis combined the theory and method of Geography, Ecology, Ecological Economics, Regional Sustainable Development and other related subjects, analyzed and compared the developmental state(developmental level, coordination and eco-efficiency) of CNSCs from two different perspectives, revealed some problems which restricted the development of yulin CNSCs, and putted forward the countermeasures to choose. Through comparative analysis of the two methods, this thesis obtained that the method based on the integration of emergy and material flow analysis was more scientific to assessing the development state of CNSCs.
The main research conclusions are as follows:
(1) After the detailed reviewed and combed on the research of CNSCs and ecological economic system both at home and abroad, this paper got some idea:The current researches about CNSCs needed to break through from three aspects that the theory was not perfect, the research methods were single and the research perspective was one-dimensional. And the theories of emergy analysis, material flow analysis and ecological efficiency about ecological economic system researching was introduced, could bring the new breakthrough to study CNSCs. So it is very necessary to make a breakthrough about CNSCs' researching from the new dimensions to re-examine and more in-depth studies of the CNSCs to realize the theory and method innovation of CNSCs'researching.
(2) Based on the CNSCs construction index and the emergy analysis index, this paper evaluated the coordination and the development level of yulin CNSCs, the result differenced. The evaluate results of CNSCs construction index showed that the sustainable development level and system coordination of yulin CNSCs were significantly growing trend in the study period; But horizontal comparison with other prefecture-level cities' CNSCs could find, the environment sub-system development level and sustainable development level in the list were after. The evaluate results of emergy evaluation index showed that:the sustainable development level and system coordination of yulin CNSCs were significantly decreasing in the study period, that was to say, the economy grew strongly of yulin CNSCs at the cost of resources consumption excessive and environmental deterioration accelerating. Studies have already proved that the evaluation results of emergy index was more scientific, but it was slightly weak in the aspect of environmental discharging's impact assessment, and the method integration of emergy analysis with material flow analysis can make up for the shortage.
(3) On the basis of the material metabolic indices and emergy material flow index, the ecological efficiency of yulin CNSCs were analyzed, and the conclusion was similar. In the study period, resource efficiency, environmental efficiency and ecological efficiency were significantly increasing; The turning point of Environmental kuznets curve (EKV) will come around2015years; Economic development and ecological pressure (resource-environmental pressure) had not been absolutely "decoupling"; Economic development of CNSCs had weak sustainability features obviouly. Because with the material flow analysis index direct material input (DMI)) and the production process (DPO) emissions associated, the ecological efficiency analysis methods based on emergy material flow was more comprehensive and its decomposition was more profound about the essence of economic development and ecological pressure:The increasing of ecological efficiency could promote economic growth, restrained ecological pressure; the increasing of ecological efficiency was the sufficient and necessary conditions for the "decoupling" of economic growth and ecological pressure; the resources input on the rise of ecological pressure was more obvious role than that of waste discharge.
(4) Through the comprehensive analysis of various evaluation result, this paper revealed the six problems restricting the coordinated and sustainable development of Yulin CNSCs. Namely:the feature of economic development model was "high investment, high yields, high pollution":The economic structure was unreasonable, agricultural economic foundation was weak:The development level of science and technology was low. the industrialized level was low:The development level of circular economy was low overall: The environment load was increasing and the environmental bearing capacity was reducing year by year:Ecological efficiency increasing year by year at the cost of rising ecological pressure.
(5) Based on the research results to determine the main sustainable development direction future of Yulin CNSCs:It is nessenery to choose the road of sustainable development of low consumption, low pollution and ecological environmental protection, the key point is to improve the ecological efficiency and develop circular economy. It should be implemented from seven aspects concretely:Change the "only GDP" goal oriented system; Set up the technical supporting system:Explore the late-model economic development model, optimize economic structure:Increase innovation of science&technology and institutional, promote dematerialization:exploit local resources reasonable and orderly; Develop circular economy actively:Comprehensive improvement the ecological environment.
(6) Through comparative analysis the application effect of CNSCs'development condition with different assessment method, this paper revealed:the emergy analysis was fit for evaluating system development level and coordination, but it was weak in assessing environmental discharging's impact; The ecological efficiency analysis based on emergy material flow was fit for evaluating the relation between economic development and ecological pressure of the system and could make up for the defect of emergy analysis, it was beneficial to the whole optimizationof system. Although the work loads of data acquisition was heavy, the calculation process was complicated, involving index connotation of emergy analysis and material flow ecological efficiency analysis were amply and deeply, the evaluation result was feasible, and more scientific and practical. In short, the integration of emergy analysis and material flow analysis methods provides a new ways to assess the development state of CNSCs, and can evaluate and compare CNSCs'development state of different levels, different dimensions, it has a direct significance for seeking the key and optimizing CNSCs' development.
To sum up, using the two dimension research method of emergy and material flow, this paper evaluated the development state of Yulin CNSCs, it was a pioneering attempt. Through a lot of comparative analysis, this paper found that the emergy and material flow method's assessing results is more scientific and revealing the problem of CNSCs' sustainable development is more profound, not only looking for the breach for the further research on CNSCs, but also enriching and developping the theory and method system of the CNSCs' research.
主要研究结论如下：
(1)对国内外关于实验区及其生态经济系统的相关研究进行详尽回顾与梳理后认为：实验区研究理论不完善、研究方法单一和研究视角一维化是当前研究需要突破的关键,而生态经济系统研究中能值理论、物质流分析理论及其生态效率理论的引入,可赋予实验区研究新的突破口。因此从新的研究尺度重新审视和更加深入的研究实验区,努力实现实验区研究理论和方法创新,促使实验区研究取得突破性进展非常必要。
(2)基于实验区建设指标和能值分析指标分别对榆林实验区协调性和发展水平进行评价,结果存在明显差异。实验区建设指标评价结果显示：榆林实验区协调性和可持续发展水平在研究期内均呈现不断增长的趋势：但与其他地级城市实验区进行横向比较发现,其环境子系统发展水平和可持续发展水平均居于后列。能值指标评价结果显示：研究期内系统的协调性和可持续发展水平均呈现逐年下降的趋势,即榆林实验区经济的强势增长以资源的过度消耗和环境的加速恶化为代价。已有研究已证实,能值指标评估结果更具科学性,但能值方法在关于系统对环境排放影响的评估方面略显薄弱,而能值方法与物质流方法的整合可弥补上述不足。
(3)基于物质代谢指标和能值—物质流指标分别对榆林实验区的生态效率进行分析,结论比较相似。研究期内,资源效率、环境效率和生态效率均呈现不断增高之势；环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKV)转折点出现的时间均在2015年前后；经济发展和生态压力(资源环境压力)之间还未出现绝对“脱钩”；实验区经济发展的弱可持续性特征明显。由于与物质流分析指标直接物质输入(DMI)和生产过程排放(DPO)相联系,因而能值—物质流生态效率分析方法更具综合性,其对经济发展与生态压力之间的症结分解的更为深刻：生态效率的提高可以促进经济增长,抑制生态压力;生态效率的提高是经济增长与生态压力实现脱钩的充要条件：相比于废物排放、资源投入对生态压力的升高具有更加明显的推动作用。
(4)通过对各种评价结果的综合分析,揭示出制约榆林实验区协调、可持续发展的六方面问题。即：以“高投入、高产出、高污染”为特征的经济发展模式;经济结构不合理,农业经济基础薄弱;科技发展水平低,工业化水平低;循环经济发展水平总体偏低；环境承载力逐年降低,环境负荷不断增大：生态效率在逐年提高,但以生态压力的不断增加为代价。
(5)依据本文的研究结果,确定榆林实验区未来可持续发展的主要方向为：以提高系统的生态效率和发展循环经济为重点,走低消耗、低污染、生态环保的可持续发展之路。具体应从七个层面着手：改变干部考核制度,弱化“唯GDP”目标导向；建立技术支撑体系；探索新型经济发展模式,优化升级产业结构；加大科技创新与制度创新,促进减物质化；合理有序开发利用本地资源;积极发展循环经济；综合整治生态环境。
(6)通过实验区发展状态不同评估方法应用效果的对比分析,本文揭示出：能值分析长于系统发展水平及协调性的评估,但对系统环境排放影响的评估薄弱；能值—物质流生态效率分析长于系统经济发展和生态压力之间关系的评估,弥补了单纯能值分析的缺陷,有利于系统的整体优化；能值分析及能值—物质流生态效率分析所涉及的指标内涵丰富且深刻,虽然资料获取工作量大,计算过程也比较复杂,但评价结果可操作性强,且更具科学性和实用性。总之,能值分析和物质流分析方法的整合提供了对实验区发展状态判定的新途径,并且能够评估与比较不同等级、不同规模实验区的发展状态,对寻求实验区发展症因和优化实验区发展有着直接的意义。
综上所述,本文首次将以能值—物质流为核心的二维研究方法应用于国家可持续发展实验区发展状态评估的研究中;通过大量的比较分析论证,该方法对实验区的评估结果更科学,揭示的问题更深刻,不仅为实验区的深入研究寻找到了突破口,而且丰富和拓展了实验区研究的理论和方法体系。
With the resources consumption rapidly and environmental degradation sharply worldwide, sustainable development has become the common development objectives being pursued by countries of the world. The construction of China National Sustainable Communities (CNSCs) is the intrinsic demand of China's sustainable development, the important experimental demonstration base to explore sustainable development theory. Its have the important meaning for the construction and development of CNSCs to establish a scientific assessment system of development state, so as to exploring and monitoring the existing problems in the process of the development of CNSCs and putting forward some countermeasures timely. Taking Yulin CNSCs as an example and regarding it as a regional ecological economic system with clearly boundary, this thesis combined the theory and method of Geography, Ecology, Ecological Economics, Regional Sustainable Development and other related subjects, analyzed and compared the developmental state(developmental level, coordination and eco-efficiency) of CNSCs from two different perspectives, revealed some problems which restricted the development of yulin CNSCs, and putted forward the countermeasures to choose. Through comparative analysis of the two methods, this thesis obtained that the method based on the integration of emergy and material flow analysis was more scientific to assessing the development state of CNSCs.
The main research conclusions are as follows:
(1) After the detailed reviewed and combed on the research of CNSCs and ecological economic system both at home and abroad, this paper got some idea:The current researches about CNSCs needed to break through from three aspects that the theory was not perfect, the research methods were single and the research perspective was one-dimensional. And the theories of emergy analysis, material flow analysis and ecological efficiency about ecological economic system researching was introduced, could bring the new breakthrough to study CNSCs. So it is very necessary to make a breakthrough about CNSCs' researching from the new dimensions to re-examine and more in-depth studies of the CNSCs to realize the theory and method innovation of CNSCs'researching.
(2) Based on the CNSCs construction index and the emergy analysis index, this paper evaluated the coordination and the development level of yulin CNSCs, the result differenced. The evaluate results of CNSCs construction index showed that the sustainable development level and system coordination of yulin CNSCs were significantly growing trend in the study period; But horizontal comparison with other prefecture-level cities' CNSCs could find, the environment sub-system development level and sustainable development level in the list were after. The evaluate results of emergy evaluation index showed that:the sustainable development level and system coordination of yulin CNSCs were significantly decreasing in the study period, that was to say, the economy grew strongly of yulin CNSCs at the cost of resources consumption excessive and environmental deterioration accelerating. Studies have already proved that the evaluation results of emergy index was more scientific, but it was slightly weak in the aspect of environmental discharging's impact assessment, and the method integration of emergy analysis with material flow analysis can make up for the shortage.
(3) On the basis of the material metabolic indices and emergy material flow index, the ecological efficiency of yulin CNSCs were analyzed, and the conclusion was similar. In the study period, resource efficiency, environmental efficiency and ecological efficiency were significantly increasing; The turning point of Environmental kuznets curve (EKV) will come around2015years; Economic development and ecological pressure (resource-environmental pressure) had not been absolutely "decoupling"; Economic development of CNSCs had weak sustainability features obviouly. Because with the material flow analysis index direct material input (DMI)) and the production process (DPO) emissions associated, the ecological efficiency analysis methods based on emergy material flow was more comprehensive and its decomposition was more profound about the essence of economic development and ecological pressure:The increasing of ecological efficiency could promote economic growth, restrained ecological pressure; the increasing of ecological efficiency was the sufficient and necessary conditions for the "decoupling" of economic growth and ecological pressure; the resources input on the rise of ecological pressure was more obvious role than that of waste discharge.
(4) Through the comprehensive analysis of various evaluation result, this paper revealed the six problems restricting the coordinated and sustainable development of Yulin CNSCs. Namely:the feature of economic development model was "high investment, high yields, high pollution":The economic structure was unreasonable, agricultural economic foundation was weak:The development level of science and technology was low. the industrialized level was low:The development level of circular economy was low overall: The environment load was increasing and the environmental bearing capacity was reducing year by year:Ecological efficiency increasing year by year at the cost of rising ecological pressure.
(5) Based on the research results to determine the main sustainable development direction future of Yulin CNSCs:It is nessenery to choose the road of sustainable development of low consumption, low pollution and ecological environmental protection, the key point is to improve the ecological efficiency and develop circular economy. It should be implemented from seven aspects concretely:Change the "only GDP" goal oriented system; Set up the technical supporting system:Explore the late-model economic development model, optimize economic structure:Increase innovation of science&technology and institutional, promote dematerialization:exploit local resources reasonable and orderly; Develop circular economy actively:Comprehensive improvement the ecological environment.
(6) Through comparative analysis the application effect of CNSCs'development condition with different assessment method, this paper revealed:the emergy analysis was fit for evaluating system development level and coordination, but it was weak in assessing environmental discharging's impact; The ecological efficiency analysis based on emergy material flow was fit for evaluating the relation between economic development and ecological pressure of the system and could make up for the defect of emergy analysis, it was beneficial to the whole optimizationof system. Although the work loads of data acquisition was heavy, the calculation process was complicated, involving index connotation of emergy analysis and material flow ecological efficiency analysis were amply and deeply, the evaluation result was feasible, and more scientific and practical. In short, the integration of emergy analysis and material flow analysis methods provides a new ways to assess the development state of CNSCs, and can evaluate and compare CNSCs'development state of different levels, different dimensions, it has a direct significance for seeking the key and optimizing CNSCs' development.
To sum up, using the two dimension research method of emergy and material flow, this paper evaluated the development state of Yulin CNSCs, it was a pioneering attempt. Through a lot of comparative analysis, this paper found that the emergy and material flow method's assessing results is more scientific and revealing the problem of CNSCs' sustainable development is more profound, not only looking for the breach for the further research on CNSCs, but also enriching and developping the theory and method system of the CNSCs' research.
引文
[1]http://www.acca21.org.cn/
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