非常规突发事件应对的集群决策机理研究
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摘要
进入21世纪,随着社会发展和环境变化,各种突发事件不断爆发,其发生频率和规模都在不断提高和扩大,逐渐演变成具有巨型灾难的非常规突发事件。自2003年SARS疾病爆发以来,我国陆续发生了多次非常规突发事件,如2008年南方雪灾、汶川大地震以及大连石油管道爆炸事件等等。非常规突发事件的频繁爆发严重威胁到群众生命财产安全、社会公共安全保障乃至整个国家的经济发展与政治稳定,然而我国在应对这类事件中依旧面临着异常艰巨的挑战。
应急决策是非常规突发事件应急管理研究的重要领域之一。非常规突发事件的特殊性决定了非常态的应急决策复杂过程,不仅涉及到多决策目标的动态决策过程,也涉及到多决策主体的协同决策过程,还涉及到基于快速响应的决策机制等方面。基于此,研究基于复杂系统环境下的集群决策机理,特别是非常规突发事件的集群决策机理,对于提高人们对非常规突发事件的应对能力,提高决策准确性和事件处理效率,降低重大危机和灾害影响,发挥应急管理的整体效能,具有非常重要的理论意义和实践意义。
本文研究目的在于分析非常规突发事件应对下的集群决策机理问题,通过综合运用多学科领域的理论与方法,提出了非常规突发事件应对的敏捷集群决策原理、集群决策询议决原理以及集群决策心理应激原理等三大重要原理,并对非常规突发事件应对的集群决策信息集成机理与集群决策情景—应对机理进行了详细的分析论证和典型案例研究。因此,研究的主要内容包括：
(1)通过对非常规突发事件的定义、特征和要素进行诠释,界定了非常规突发事件；通过对非常规突发事件应对的集群决策的定义、特征以及模式等进行诠释,界定了非常规突发事件应对的集群决策；
(2)基于敏捷决策理论提出了非常规突发事件应对的敏捷集群决策原理；基于复杂系统与人机交互系统等理论,提出了非常规突发事件应对的集群决策询议决模型；基于有限理性决策与决策心理等理论,提出了非常规突发事件应对的集群决策心理应激模型。上述三大原理与模型为后续研究提供了理论基础；
(3)通过对非常规突发事件中的信息内涵、特征、行为规律等进行分析,探讨非常规突发事件信息流与应急决策之间的内在关系。基于系统动力学理论构建了非常规突发事件信息控制模型,并基于博弈论重点研究了决策信息在非常规突发事件集群决策中的集结问题；
(4)通过对非常规突发事件情景演化的内在特征与规律的研究,提出了非常规突发事件的集群决策情景—应对机理。基于动态贝叶斯网络与情景分析理论的结合,构建了基于情景—应对的非常规突发事件集群决策模型。此外,基于粗糙集理论探讨了非常规突发事件集群决策中的敏捷学习行为,并构建了非常规突发事件敏捷集群决策的集结模型；
(5)通过以“7·23”甬温线特别重大铁路交通事故作为典型案例,剖析了案例事故爆发之后的应急处置过程中存在的问题,并基于非常规突发事件信息控制模型探讨了案例事故中的两类信息流(危机信息流,决策信息流)与应急处置的关系,同时基于非常规突发事件集群决策的情景应对模型优化了案例事故的应急决策模式。最后,根据以上的分析结果针对高铁运营中的应急管理提出了一些意见与建议。
The frequency and size of emergencies are constantly improving and expanding, which gradually evolved into giant disasters, i.e. unconventional emergencies. Since the SARS broke out in2003, several unconventional emergencies have happened, such as the Southern snowstorm in2008, the Wenchuan earthquake, Dalian oil pipeline bombings etc. Unconventional emergency seriously threat to life and property safety, social and public security, and even the country's economic development and political stability. Therefore, the research on unconventional emergency response management cannot be ignored.
The emergency decision-making is one of the most important research areas in emergency management. Based on the characteristics of unconventional emergency, the unconventional emergency decision-making process could be very complicated, which includes dynamic decision-making process of multi-decision objectives, collaborative decision-making process of multi-decision subjects, and decision-making mechanism based on rapid response. Therefore, the research on decision-making mechanism of unconventional emergency, especially on group decision-making mechanism in complicated environment has contribution to capability improvement of complex disaster response, accuracy of determination, efficiency of emergency response, and reduction of harmfulness in big crisis and disasters. The research has its theoretical and practical significance.
The purpose of the dissertation is to analyze the group decision-making mechanism of unconventional emergency. Based on the multi-disciplinary field of theory and methods, the dissertation proposes three principles of unconventional emergency response, which are agile group decision-making, group decision-making inquire-discuss-determine, and group decision-making psychological stress. The dissertation also focuses on information integration and scenario response in group decision-making of unconventional emergency. The main contents of the dissertation are listed as follows.
First, based on the discussion of the definition, characteristics and elements, the explanatory note of unconventional emergency is proposed. The definition of group decision making of unconventional emergency is made based on the discussion of characteristics and mode.
Second, the principle of agile group decision-making of unconventional emergency is proposed based on the agile decision-making theory. The principle of group decision-making inquire-discuss-determine of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the theory and application of complex systems and human-computer interaction system, etc. The principle of group decision-making psychological stress of unconventional emergency is introduced based on limited rational decision-making theory and decision theory of mind. The above three principles and the related models provide a theoretical basis for the whole research of the dissertation.
Third, based on the analysis of definition, characteristics and behavior rule, the dissertation discusses the intrinsic relationship between the information flow and emergency decision making in unconventional emergency. The information control model of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the system dynamics theory. The decision information integration model of unconventional emergency group decision making is established based on the game theory.
Fourth, the group decision making scenario response mechanism of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the analysis of intrinsic characteristics and rule of unconventional emergency scenario evolution. The scenario response group decision making model of unconventional emergency is built based on the Dynamic Bayesian Networks and the theory of scenario analysis. In addition, the dissertation analyzes the agile learning behavior in group decision making process of unconventional emergence based on the fuzzy theory, and establishes agile group decision making integration model of unconventional emergency.
Fifth, the dissertation takes "7.23" Yong-temperature line particularly major rail accident as a typical case. The dissertation analyzes the emergency response process of the case, information integration in the emergency decision making and decision making process among the four responsible departments as well. In addition, some comments and suggestions are made based on the information control model and scenario response group decision making model of unconventional emergency.
应急决策是非常规突发事件应急管理研究的重要领域之一。非常规突发事件的特殊性决定了非常态的应急决策复杂过程,不仅涉及到多决策目标的动态决策过程,也涉及到多决策主体的协同决策过程,还涉及到基于快速响应的决策机制等方面。基于此,研究基于复杂系统环境下的集群决策机理,特别是非常规突发事件的集群决策机理,对于提高人们对非常规突发事件的应对能力,提高决策准确性和事件处理效率,降低重大危机和灾害影响,发挥应急管理的整体效能,具有非常重要的理论意义和实践意义。
本文研究目的在于分析非常规突发事件应对下的集群决策机理问题,通过综合运用多学科领域的理论与方法,提出了非常规突发事件应对的敏捷集群决策原理、集群决策询议决原理以及集群决策心理应激原理等三大重要原理,并对非常规突发事件应对的集群决策信息集成机理与集群决策情景—应对机理进行了详细的分析论证和典型案例研究。因此,研究的主要内容包括：
(1)通过对非常规突发事件的定义、特征和要素进行诠释,界定了非常规突发事件；通过对非常规突发事件应对的集群决策的定义、特征以及模式等进行诠释,界定了非常规突发事件应对的集群决策；
(2)基于敏捷决策理论提出了非常规突发事件应对的敏捷集群决策原理；基于复杂系统与人机交互系统等理论,提出了非常规突发事件应对的集群决策询议决模型；基于有限理性决策与决策心理等理论,提出了非常规突发事件应对的集群决策心理应激模型。上述三大原理与模型为后续研究提供了理论基础；
(3)通过对非常规突发事件中的信息内涵、特征、行为规律等进行分析,探讨非常规突发事件信息流与应急决策之间的内在关系。基于系统动力学理论构建了非常规突发事件信息控制模型,并基于博弈论重点研究了决策信息在非常规突发事件集群决策中的集结问题；
(4)通过对非常规突发事件情景演化的内在特征与规律的研究,提出了非常规突发事件的集群决策情景—应对机理。基于动态贝叶斯网络与情景分析理论的结合,构建了基于情景—应对的非常规突发事件集群决策模型。此外,基于粗糙集理论探讨了非常规突发事件集群决策中的敏捷学习行为,并构建了非常规突发事件敏捷集群决策的集结模型；
(5)通过以“7·23”甬温线特别重大铁路交通事故作为典型案例,剖析了案例事故爆发之后的应急处置过程中存在的问题,并基于非常规突发事件信息控制模型探讨了案例事故中的两类信息流(危机信息流,决策信息流)与应急处置的关系,同时基于非常规突发事件集群决策的情景应对模型优化了案例事故的应急决策模式。最后,根据以上的分析结果针对高铁运营中的应急管理提出了一些意见与建议。
The frequency and size of emergencies are constantly improving and expanding, which gradually evolved into giant disasters, i.e. unconventional emergencies. Since the SARS broke out in2003, several unconventional emergencies have happened, such as the Southern snowstorm in2008, the Wenchuan earthquake, Dalian oil pipeline bombings etc. Unconventional emergency seriously threat to life and property safety, social and public security, and even the country's economic development and political stability. Therefore, the research on unconventional emergency response management cannot be ignored.
The emergency decision-making is one of the most important research areas in emergency management. Based on the characteristics of unconventional emergency, the unconventional emergency decision-making process could be very complicated, which includes dynamic decision-making process of multi-decision objectives, collaborative decision-making process of multi-decision subjects, and decision-making mechanism based on rapid response. Therefore, the research on decision-making mechanism of unconventional emergency, especially on group decision-making mechanism in complicated environment has contribution to capability improvement of complex disaster response, accuracy of determination, efficiency of emergency response, and reduction of harmfulness in big crisis and disasters. The research has its theoretical and practical significance.
The purpose of the dissertation is to analyze the group decision-making mechanism of unconventional emergency. Based on the multi-disciplinary field of theory and methods, the dissertation proposes three principles of unconventional emergency response, which are agile group decision-making, group decision-making inquire-discuss-determine, and group decision-making psychological stress. The dissertation also focuses on information integration and scenario response in group decision-making of unconventional emergency. The main contents of the dissertation are listed as follows.
First, based on the discussion of the definition, characteristics and elements, the explanatory note of unconventional emergency is proposed. The definition of group decision making of unconventional emergency is made based on the discussion of characteristics and mode.
Second, the principle of agile group decision-making of unconventional emergency is proposed based on the agile decision-making theory. The principle of group decision-making inquire-discuss-determine of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the theory and application of complex systems and human-computer interaction system, etc. The principle of group decision-making psychological stress of unconventional emergency is introduced based on limited rational decision-making theory and decision theory of mind. The above three principles and the related models provide a theoretical basis for the whole research of the dissertation.
Third, based on the analysis of definition, characteristics and behavior rule, the dissertation discusses the intrinsic relationship between the information flow and emergency decision making in unconventional emergency. The information control model of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the system dynamics theory. The decision information integration model of unconventional emergency group decision making is established based on the game theory.
Fourth, the group decision making scenario response mechanism of unconventional emergency is introduced based on the analysis of intrinsic characteristics and rule of unconventional emergency scenario evolution. The scenario response group decision making model of unconventional emergency is built based on the Dynamic Bayesian Networks and the theory of scenario analysis. In addition, the dissertation analyzes the agile learning behavior in group decision making process of unconventional emergence based on the fuzzy theory, and establishes agile group decision making integration model of unconventional emergency.
Fifth, the dissertation takes "7.23" Yong-temperature line particularly major rail accident as a typical case. The dissertation analyzes the emergency response process of the case, information integration in the emergency decision making and decision making process among the four responsible departments as well. In addition, some comments and suggestions are made based on the information control model and scenario response group decision making model of unconventional emergency.
引文
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