我国电解铝生产能源消费效率研究
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摘要
众所诸知,电解铝是一个典型的能源密集型产业。近十年,随着电解铝技术装备的不断进步,电解铝单位能耗有了较为明显的优化,但同时,我国电解铝行业也遭遇了电价过高、产能过剩、率润过低并存的困境。与2001年比,我国电解铝平均用电价格上涨了60%,产能增长了86%。目前,吨铝电价成本占到了总成本50%多,而销售利润率不到4%。因此,能源效率问题对电解铝来说变得尤为重要。那么,什么是能源效率,电解铝能源效率如何测量,受哪些因素的影响呢?电解铝能源效率的提高是否就足以引导企业步入健康可持续的发展状态呢?基于上述问题驱动,本研究构建了基于单要素及全要素DEA框架下电解铝能源效率评估体系,对电解铝能源效率进行了系统的研究；并开拓性的推导了二级嵌入式CES函数,与传统索罗余值模型相结合,构建了电解铝能源消费回弹效应测量模型,并用此分析探讨了技术进步导致电解铝能源效率优化后是否给电解铝行业带来了能源消费回弹效应问题,并对电解铝发展提出了对策建议。
本研究主要内容分为八章。在第一章引论。提出了本研究的研究目的意义及方法；第二章回顾与本研究相关的理论基础和文献综述；第三章介绍了国内外能源及电解铝产业发展情况；第四章从单要素角度和全要素角度构建了电解铝能源效率评估指标及方法体系,包括8各指标及3类评估模型。第五章是按照第四章的评价指标体系及评价方法,通过选择6类样本,对我国电解铝企业能源效率情况进行了全面的测量、分析与评价；第六章是进一步利用Malmquist指数法,测度了我国电解铝行业能源效率指数变化情况；并在一般CES生产函数的基础上推导了二级镶嵌式CES生产函数模型,并结合索罗模型估算,对我国1996年～2011年的电解铝企业的技术进步贡献率及能源消费回弹效应进行了系统研究；第七章分析了我国电解铝调控政策及实施效果,并并从企业和国家层面提出了电解铝能源效率优化措施以及发展建议；第八章对全文的研究工作做了系统的归纳总结,对存在的问题进行了分析,并提出了未来有待进一步深入研究的方向。
通过系统分析研究,得出的基本结论是：1、技术进步是提高我国电解铝能源强度指标以及优化技术效率的基本原因,而且作用明显；2、从2004年与2011年比较数据来看,企业能源技术效率呈总体改善状态,但基于销售产出和利润为产出电解铝企业能源配置效率和经济效率结论相反,基于销售产出的电解铝能源配置效率和能源经济效率较高,而且呈现改善趋势；但基于利润产出的电解铝能源配置效率和经济效率均较低,而弱化现象极为严重,这就说明企业还是在追求产量,资源浪费极为严重；3、不同企业性质的电解铝企业,表现为能源技术效率差异较大；而不同区域企业能源效率表现为经济效率和配置效率差异较大；4、技术进步虽然是我国电解铝能源效率优化最根本的原因,但研究也表明,技术进步同时也给我国电解铝能源消费带来了很大的能源回弹效应,加之调控不到位,加速了我国电解铝企业的无序发展；5、国家、政府及企业要从继续优化电解铝能源效率的同时严格产能发展入手来引导行业健康发展和资源的合理配置。
本研究采用理论与实证相结合研究范式,理论及应用创新主要包括以下两个方面：1、首次将DEA方法应用到电解铝能源效率评估领域,并结合行业特征进行了相对微观层面的探讨,克服了以往研究多停留在国家、省级层面上的不足；2、推导了二级嵌套式CES函数并与传统索罗余值模型相结合,构建了电解铝能源回弹效应测量模型,不仅克服了传统C-D函数的不足,拓展了CES函数的应用,并且首次利用该方法测量了我国电解铝能源消费回弹效应。
本研究拓展了高能耗行业能源效率以及能源消费回弹效应评估方法,其结论和建议也将为企业、国家、政府规范电解铝行业发展提供启示和思路。
As we all know, aluminum is a typical energy-intensive. In recent years, with the continuous progress of the technical&equipment of aluminum, unit energy consumption of aluminum has been optimized obviously, But at the same time, Aluminum Industry encountered the mess of expensive electricity price, capacity surplus and low profit margin. Compared with that of2001, Average electricity price of aluminum has risen by nearly60%, The capacity has risen by86%. At present, Electricity cost accounts for more than50%of the full production cost,while the selling profit margin is less4%.
So, What is energy efficiency and How can we measure aluminum energy efficiency, And by what factors is it affected? Does the aluminum energy efficiency optimizing is enought to guide the enterprise into health and sustainable development? Basing on these issues, the study established a system of evaluation index and methods of aluminum energy efficiency in China by using both single-factor and full-factor methods; And forthermore, on the basis of the general CES production function, The two secondary mosaic CES production function model was derived out, with which and the Solow model, the positive analysis of rebound effect of energy consumption basing on technological progress in china's aluminum was carried out, the suggestions on aluminum development were given too.
This study is divided into eight chapters. Introduction section, the first chapter, puts forward the purpose, meanings and methods of research. The second chapter is about the theoretical basis and the literature review of this study. The third chapter is devoted to domestic and foreign energy reserves, energy consumption and the development of aluminum industry.The fourth chapter constructs the evaluation index and method system of aluminum energy efficiency, which has8indices three types of DEA energy efficiency evaluation models according the diference of aluminum production systees. Chapter5conducted a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of energy efficiency of China's aluminum enterprises by selecting Six type samples, by using of the evaluation index and methods system established in Chapter4. Chapter6, the malmquist index was measured, And on the basis of the general CES production function, The two secondary mosaic CES production function model was put forward, with which and the Solow model, the rebound effect of energy consumption basing on technological progress of China's aluminum enterprises from1996to2011was carried out. Chapter7, We put forward the problems that should be avoided and the policy recommendations in the development of China's aluminum and energy consumption from the enterprise and national levels.Chapter8summarizes the study systematically, analyses the existing problems, and proposes the issues which need further research in the future,
from the postive analysis in this study,we can draw a few conclusions as follows:
1. Technological advances are the basic factors for improving China's aluminum energy intensity indicators and technical efficiency. The efficiency of optimization of technological advances is obvious.
2. By comparing the data of the year2004and2011, we find that energy technology efficiency is generally improved but the energy allocating efficiency and economic efficiency of aluminum enterprises based on output of sales and output of profit oppose each other. The energy allocating efficiency and economic efficiency based on output of sales are higher, and tend to improve while the the latter two are comparatively lower showing strong signs of the weakening trend. It indicates that enterprises are in the pursuit of output, which is causing serious waste of resources.
3. Different enterprises with different nature are quite different in the way of energy technical efficiency while energy efficiency of enterprises in different regions are quite different in the way of economic efficiency and allocating efficiency.
4. Energy efficiency Optimizing basing on the technological progress caused the rebound effect of energy consumption in china's aluminum industry, coupled with the bad regulation, which accelerate the disorder development of China's aluminum.
5. The state, government and enterprises tocontinue to optimize the aluminum energy efficiency is still very important, but at the same time strict control the capacity development is the major factor for healthy development and rational allocation of resources.
The study used the research paradigm of theoretical and empirical combination, the theory and application of innovation include the following two aspects:1. The DEA method is applied to the field of aluminum energy efficiency assessment for the first time, and combined with the industry characteristics, the relatively micro analysis was carried, overcome the deficiencies of the previous studies that remain in the national or provincial level;2. The two secondary mosaic CES production function model was derived out, and with the traditional Solow residual value model, the rebound effect of aluminum energy measurement model was established, not only overcome the deficiencies of the traditional C-D function, expanding the application of the CES function, and used this method to measure China's aluminum energy consumption rebound effect for the first time.
This study extends the theory and method of energy efficiency and rebound effect measurement of energy-intensive industries, and its conclusions and recommendations will also provide development ideas for corporates, nationals, government s and academe too.
本研究主要内容分为八章。在第一章引论。提出了本研究的研究目的意义及方法；第二章回顾与本研究相关的理论基础和文献综述；第三章介绍了国内外能源及电解铝产业发展情况；第四章从单要素角度和全要素角度构建了电解铝能源效率评估指标及方法体系,包括8各指标及3类评估模型。第五章是按照第四章的评价指标体系及评价方法,通过选择6类样本,对我国电解铝企业能源效率情况进行了全面的测量、分析与评价；第六章是进一步利用Malmquist指数法,测度了我国电解铝行业能源效率指数变化情况；并在一般CES生产函数的基础上推导了二级镶嵌式CES生产函数模型,并结合索罗模型估算,对我国1996年～2011年的电解铝企业的技术进步贡献率及能源消费回弹效应进行了系统研究；第七章分析了我国电解铝调控政策及实施效果,并并从企业和国家层面提出了电解铝能源效率优化措施以及发展建议；第八章对全文的研究工作做了系统的归纳总结,对存在的问题进行了分析,并提出了未来有待进一步深入研究的方向。
通过系统分析研究,得出的基本结论是：1、技术进步是提高我国电解铝能源强度指标以及优化技术效率的基本原因,而且作用明显；2、从2004年与2011年比较数据来看,企业能源技术效率呈总体改善状态,但基于销售产出和利润为产出电解铝企业能源配置效率和经济效率结论相反,基于销售产出的电解铝能源配置效率和能源经济效率较高,而且呈现改善趋势；但基于利润产出的电解铝能源配置效率和经济效率均较低,而弱化现象极为严重,这就说明企业还是在追求产量,资源浪费极为严重；3、不同企业性质的电解铝企业,表现为能源技术效率差异较大；而不同区域企业能源效率表现为经济效率和配置效率差异较大；4、技术进步虽然是我国电解铝能源效率优化最根本的原因,但研究也表明,技术进步同时也给我国电解铝能源消费带来了很大的能源回弹效应,加之调控不到位,加速了我国电解铝企业的无序发展；5、国家、政府及企业要从继续优化电解铝能源效率的同时严格产能发展入手来引导行业健康发展和资源的合理配置。
本研究采用理论与实证相结合研究范式,理论及应用创新主要包括以下两个方面：1、首次将DEA方法应用到电解铝能源效率评估领域,并结合行业特征进行了相对微观层面的探讨,克服了以往研究多停留在国家、省级层面上的不足；2、推导了二级嵌套式CES函数并与传统索罗余值模型相结合,构建了电解铝能源回弹效应测量模型,不仅克服了传统C-D函数的不足,拓展了CES函数的应用,并且首次利用该方法测量了我国电解铝能源消费回弹效应。
本研究拓展了高能耗行业能源效率以及能源消费回弹效应评估方法,其结论和建议也将为企业、国家、政府规范电解铝行业发展提供启示和思路。
As we all know, aluminum is a typical energy-intensive. In recent years, with the continuous progress of the technical&equipment of aluminum, unit energy consumption of aluminum has been optimized obviously, But at the same time, Aluminum Industry encountered the mess of expensive electricity price, capacity surplus and low profit margin. Compared with that of2001, Average electricity price of aluminum has risen by nearly60%, The capacity has risen by86%. At present, Electricity cost accounts for more than50%of the full production cost,while the selling profit margin is less4%.
So, What is energy efficiency and How can we measure aluminum energy efficiency, And by what factors is it affected? Does the aluminum energy efficiency optimizing is enought to guide the enterprise into health and sustainable development? Basing on these issues, the study established a system of evaluation index and methods of aluminum energy efficiency in China by using both single-factor and full-factor methods; And forthermore, on the basis of the general CES production function, The two secondary mosaic CES production function model was derived out, with which and the Solow model, the positive analysis of rebound effect of energy consumption basing on technological progress in china's aluminum was carried out, the suggestions on aluminum development were given too.
This study is divided into eight chapters. Introduction section, the first chapter, puts forward the purpose, meanings and methods of research. The second chapter is about the theoretical basis and the literature review of this study. The third chapter is devoted to domestic and foreign energy reserves, energy consumption and the development of aluminum industry.The fourth chapter constructs the evaluation index and method system of aluminum energy efficiency, which has8indices three types of DEA energy efficiency evaluation models according the diference of aluminum production systees. Chapter5conducted a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of energy efficiency of China's aluminum enterprises by selecting Six type samples, by using of the evaluation index and methods system established in Chapter4. Chapter6, the malmquist index was measured, And on the basis of the general CES production function, The two secondary mosaic CES production function model was put forward, with which and the Solow model, the rebound effect of energy consumption basing on technological progress of China's aluminum enterprises from1996to2011was carried out. Chapter7, We put forward the problems that should be avoided and the policy recommendations in the development of China's aluminum and energy consumption from the enterprise and national levels.Chapter8summarizes the study systematically, analyses the existing problems, and proposes the issues which need further research in the future,
from the postive analysis in this study,we can draw a few conclusions as follows:
1. Technological advances are the basic factors for improving China's aluminum energy intensity indicators and technical efficiency. The efficiency of optimization of technological advances is obvious.
2. By comparing the data of the year2004and2011, we find that energy technology efficiency is generally improved but the energy allocating efficiency and economic efficiency of aluminum enterprises based on output of sales and output of profit oppose each other. The energy allocating efficiency and economic efficiency based on output of sales are higher, and tend to improve while the the latter two are comparatively lower showing strong signs of the weakening trend. It indicates that enterprises are in the pursuit of output, which is causing serious waste of resources.
3. Different enterprises with different nature are quite different in the way of energy technical efficiency while energy efficiency of enterprises in different regions are quite different in the way of economic efficiency and allocating efficiency.
4. Energy efficiency Optimizing basing on the technological progress caused the rebound effect of energy consumption in china's aluminum industry, coupled with the bad regulation, which accelerate the disorder development of China's aluminum.
5. The state, government and enterprises tocontinue to optimize the aluminum energy efficiency is still very important, but at the same time strict control the capacity development is the major factor for healthy development and rational allocation of resources.
The study used the research paradigm of theoretical and empirical combination, the theory and application of innovation include the following two aspects:1. The DEA method is applied to the field of aluminum energy efficiency assessment for the first time, and combined with the industry characteristics, the relatively micro analysis was carried, overcome the deficiencies of the previous studies that remain in the national or provincial level;2. The two secondary mosaic CES production function model was derived out, and with the traditional Solow residual value model, the rebound effect of aluminum energy measurement model was established, not only overcome the deficiencies of the traditional C-D function, expanding the application of the CES function, and used this method to measure China's aluminum energy consumption rebound effect for the first time.
This study extends the theory and method of energy efficiency and rebound effect measurement of energy-intensive industries, and its conclusions and recommendations will also provide development ideas for corporates, nationals, government s and academe too.
引文
1方法来源：Aluminum Applications and Society-Life Cycle Inventory of the Worldwide Aluminum Industry with Regard to Energy Consumption and Emissions of Greenhouse Gases-Partl-Automotive[R].Primary Aluminum Institute,2000.
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