渤海主要污染物环境容量及陆源排污管理区分配容量计算
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摘要
陆源污染物排放总量控制是实现资源节约型、环境友好型社会经济可持续发展方式的基础内容，也是综合解决当前大气、地表水、土壤、海洋污染问题的有效手段。自我国1980’s中期开始陆源污染物排放总量控制研究，特别是2006年开始实施以COD减排为约束性指标的“目标总量控制管理”计划以来，由于“目标总量控制管理”方式自身固有的缺陷，即使自1990’s后期先后实施了“渤海综合整治规划”、“碧海行动计划”等国家级污染防治工程，渤海水质改善实际效果仍然不甚理想。具体表现在2010年渤海超标面积比2005年增加约50%。这样，根据美国、欧盟、日本等有益经验分析，我国陆源污染物排放总量控制迫切需要由现行的“目标总量控制”向“容量总量控制”的转变。然而，由于针对海洋三维空间数值模型的海洋环境容量计算方法发展滞后等原因，不仅关于渤海的报道多数将环境容量与分配容量混淆，而且计算结果也常常局限于部分海域或部分陆域，特别是至今尚没有在整体上实现科学精细地划分环渤海经济圈排污管理区。因此，本论文研究目的主要是得到以更加精准的环境容量计算结果为基础的环渤海区域排污管理区分配容量，为实现“容量总量控制管理”所必需的科学精准、细化具体的率定量化管理指标体系提供科学理论基础。
对此，本论文研究内容主要有5个方面：（1）根据海洋环境容量的一般计算方法原理，建立适应海洋三维空间数值模型的海洋环境容量计算方法。（2）应用（1）建立的计算方法，计算渤海海域COD、氮和磷环境容量。（3）根据汇水区、集污区等一般准则，针对渤海实际纳污陆域范围，在科学确定环渤海排污管理带范围基础上，合理划分环渤海排污管理区。（4）在（2）基础上，应用多目标（非）线性规划方法，计算环渤海排污管理区COD、氮和磷分配容量。（5）根据COD、氮和磷陆源污染物超排率估算结果，初步探讨环渤海排污管理带陆源污染物排放总量控制率定量化分级管理模式。
本论文主要研究结果是：
1．渤海海域COD、氮和磷污染物环境容量计算。目前，根据污染物自净过程建立的海洋环境容量计算的一般方法原理只能适应箱式数值模型，而不能适应三维空间数值模型。这样，综合考虑水动力空间和生物地球化学时间变化特征，可以建立适应三维空间数值模型的污染物环境容量（EC）计算方法，可以称作“浓度梯度积分法”。根据数值模型在时间、空间、指标、标准等方面的特征，环境容量计算流程主要包括从纳污海域识别到环境容量计算结果评价8个环节。这里，采取渤海三维水动力（HAMSOM）-生物地球化学耦合模型进行COD、氮和磷污染物状态变量数值模拟运算。结果表明，模拟结果与监测结果基本吻合（第3章图3-5），其中氮相对偏差％（RSD）和相似性指数（SI）平均分别是51%和0.41，说明基本可以应用该模型计算渤海污染物环境容量。计算结果表明，在国家功能区水质标准条件下，渤海COD、氮（氨氮）和磷的环境容量分别约为980、93和13万吨/年，氮、磷环境容量密度（t/a/km~2约为黄海胶州湾和东海罗源湾的1/3。
2．环渤海排污管理带陆源COD、氮和磷污染物分配容量计算。排污管理区陆源污染物分配容量计算主要包括三个环节：首先，综合考虑环渤海经济圈三省两市区域中污染物排入渤海的115个汇水区、13个集污区和17个直排海企业相应共计145个入海点，确定环渤海排污管理带范围涵盖37个地级市的343个县级行政区，19个地级市的105个县级行政区不在此范围内。在此基础上，将县级行政区作为环渤海排污管理带的最小行政区，并根据污染物主要入海途径将同一行政区内的多个汇水区和集污区予以归并，在环渤海排污管理带范围内可以划分为42个排污管理区，以及黄河中上游、海河上游和辽河上游3个密切关联的带外排污管理区，前者可分为黄河、海河和辽河排污管理区系。其次，应用多目标（非）线性规划方法，可以计算42个排污管理区COD、氮和磷污染物分配容量（AC）：以各排污管理区分配容量最大为目标函数，相应约束条件主要有总量约束、水质控制点约束和非负约束条件，其中前者以海洋环境容量作为陆域分配容量阈值。最后，采用单纯形法可以计算排污管理区污染物分配容量。计算结果表明，对于COD、氮和磷污染物，环渤海排污管理“带内”分配容量平均占95%左右，而“带外”仅占5％左右。其中，黄河、海河和辽河排污管理区系分别平均占27%、30%和43%左右。分析表明，COD分配容量密度（DA）平均是3.9，其中面积占环渤海排污管理带总面积16%的区域高于均值，主要分布在北戴河区等32个排污管理区。
3．环渤海排污管理带陆源污染物排放总量控制率定量化分级管理初探。
根据陆源污染物排放总量控制五级量化管理模式，可以采用COD、氮和磷污染物超排率%对环渤海排污管理带实行分级量化管理，其中：超排率%=（污染物排放数量密度-行政区分配容量密度）/行政区分配容量密度。然而，在同样应用多目标（非）线性规划方法计算行政区分配容量中，目前尚无法具体确定所需要增设的经济发展、人口发展、污染物排放强度、工程减排等约束条件的函数化或参数化形式。在这种情况下，如果假设环渤海排污管理带行政区分配容量密度/排污管理区分配容量密度比值与青岛市结果基本相同，大约0.3，可以根据环渤海排污管理区分配容量密度粗略估算污染物超排率%。结果表明，根据COD超排率%，环渤海排污管理带范围内，需要实行红色和橙色管理的区域合计约53%，而绿色和蓝色合计约46％。
总之，本论文主要工作是按照“目标总量控制”向“容量总量控制”转变关于率定量化指标要求，建立了针对海洋三维空间数值模型的污染物环境容量计算方法，浓度梯度积分法，并应用该方法计算了渤海COD、氮和磷污染物环境容量。同时，综合考虑汇水区、集污区、入海点等实际情况，科学确定了环渤海排污管理带范围，并合理划分了42个环渤海排污管理区。以上述两项结果为基础，应用多目标（非）线性规划方法计算得到了更加细化具体的42个环渤海排污管理区COD、氮和磷污染物分配容量，为建立以行政区为责任主体的环渤海排污管理带量化管理指标体系提供了量化理论基础。
论文创新点主要是针对更加准确的环境容量计算结果的要求，建立了适应海洋三维空间数值模型的浓度梯度积分法。在此基础上，论文特色主要是得到了更加细化具体的42个环渤海排污管理区COD、氮和磷污染物分配容量，这为“十二五”规划时期环渤海排污管理带中共计343个县级行政区排放总量控制量化指标体系制定提供了科学基础。
Total Load control of Land-sourced pollutant is the basic content of achieving aresource-saving and environment-friendly socio-economic sustainable development.And it’s also an effective means to solve the atmosphere, surface water, soil andmarine pollution problems. Since the beginning of total pollutant load control researchin the middle of1980s, particularly the implementation of “Targeted Total LoadControl” plan in2006, in which COD reduction is the restricted index, the waterquality of Bohai Sea has not been improved to an extent satisfied, even after theimplementation of “Bohai Comprehensive Improvement Plan” and “Bohai Blue SeaAction plan”, due to the defects of “Targeted Total Load Control”. The areaexceeding the water quality standard of Bohai Sea increased by approximately50%in2010comparing with that in2005. According to the experience on total pollutant loadcontrol from U.S., EU and Japan, etc, it is more necessary to execute the “TotalPollutant Load Control based on Environment Capacity” instead of the “TargetedTotal Pollutant Load Control” for China. However, due to the reason that thedevelopment of calculation method of marine environment capacity usingthree-dimensional numerical models lags and etc., in many repots, not only theconcept of environmental capacity and allocated capacity is often mixed up, but alsothe calculation results are often limited to some area of the Bohai Sea or land aroundit. Particularly, up to now, Bohai pollutant discharge region has not been scientificallyand accurately divided. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to get the allocatedcapacities of pollutant discharge region around Bohai Sea based on the more accuratecalculation results of environment capacity of Bohai Sea, and to provide a scientificand theoretical basis for the scientific, accurate and quantitative management indicator system to achieve the implementation of “Total Discharge Control based onenvironment capacity”.
The main contents of this research include:
(1) According to the general principles of environment capacity’s calculation,establishing a method of calculating environment capacities, which is adapted to theocean three-dimensional numerical model.(2) Calculating the environmentalcapacities of pollutants of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus of the Bohai Sea using themethod established above.(3) According to the general principles of dividingcatchments and pollutant collecting areas and the actual land range whose pollutantentering into Bohai Sea, reasonably dividing the Bohai pollutant discharge regionBased on scientifically defining the range of Bohai discharge management belt.(4)Based on the results obtained in the (2), calculating the allocated capacities of COD,nitrogen and phosphorus of Bohai pollutant discharge regions with the method ofmulti-objective linear programming.(5) According to the estimated results ofdischarge rates of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus, preliminary proposing aquantitative and administration-leveled management system of total load control onBohai pollutant discharge region.Major results of this research are as follows:
1. Calculation Environmental capacities of Pollutants of COD, Nitrogen andPhosphorus of Bohai Sea
Currently, the general principles of the method of calculating environment capacitiesbased on pollutants’ self-purification can only be applied to the box-type numericalmodel, and cannot meet the demand of establishing three-dimensional numericalmodels. Therefore, considering the hydrodynamic space and biogeochemicaltime-varying characteristics, the method of calculating pollutants’ environmentcapacities (EC) can be established, which is adapted to the three-dimensionalnumerical model, and the results can be called “Concentration Gradient IntegralMethod”. According to the characteristics of the numerical model in terms of time,space, indicators and standards, environmental capacity calculation process includeseight sessions including from identifying waters the pollutant entering into to assessing the calculation results of environmental capacity. In this research, the Bohaithree-dimensional hydrodynamic (HAMSOM)-biogeochemical coupled model isapplied to numerical simulations of state variables of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus.The results show that the simulation results basically coincide with the monitoringresults, for nitrogen, the average relative deviation (RSD) and the similarity index (SI)is51%and0.42respectively, which illustrates that the model basically could be usedto calculate the environment capacities of pollutants of Bohai Sea. The results showthat the environment capacities of COD, nitrogen (ammonia) and phosphorus of theBohai Sea, were respectively about9.80,0.93and0.13million tons per year, and theenvironmental capacity density (t/a/km~2) of nitrogen and phosphorus wereapproximately1/3of Jiaozhou Bay of the Yellow Sea and Luoyuan Bay of the EastChina Sea under the conditions of water quality standards of the national functionalareas.
2. Calculation of allocated capacities of land-sourced COD, Nitrogen and Phosphorusof Bohai Pollutant Discharge Regions.
The calculation of land-sourced pollutants allocated capacities of Pollutant DischargeRegion includes three main components: First, considering the145points locatedaround the three provinces and two cities in the Bohai economic region wherepollutant enters into Bohai, of which there are115catchment area Zone,19pollutant collection area and17enterprise whose pollutants are discharged into theBohai sea directly, and confirming that the Bohai Sea pollutant management zonecovers343county-level administrative regions belonged to37prefecture-levelcities and105county-level administrative regions belonged to19prefecture-levelcities are outside this range. On this basis, the county-level Administrative Region issetted as the minimum Administrative Region of Bohai Sea pollutant managementzone. According to the main path of pollutants entering into sea. catchments andpollutant collection areas in the same administrative district, are merged. So, Bohaipollutant management zone can be divided into42pollutant management regions and3closely related pollutant management areas outside the region, which is the middleand upper reaches of the Yellow River and theupstream of Haihe River and Liaohe River (see above), of which the former can be further divided into Yellow Riverpollutant discharge management district, Haihe pollutant discharge managementdistrict and Liaohe pollutant discharge management district respectively. Secondly,allocated capacities (AC) of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus of the42pollutantmanagement regions are calculated with the method of multi-objective (non-) linearprogramming. and of which the maximum of allocated capacity of pollutantmanagement regions is set as the objective function and the the total pollutant load,water quality and non-negative as constraints, and the former takes Bohai’senvironmental capacity as land allocated capacity’s threshold. Finally, allocatedcapacities of pollutants of the pollutant management regions can be calculated usingthe simplex method. The results show that, as for pollutants of COD, nitrogen andphosphorus, the allocated capacities within the Bohai Sea pollutant management zoneaccounts for about95%, and that outside thezone accounts for only about5%, ofwhich Yellow River pollutant discharge management district, Haihe pollutantdischarge management district and Liaohe pollutant discharge management districtaccounted for27%,30%and43%respectively. The analysis shows that the density ofCOD allocated capacity (DA) is an average of3.9, of which16%area of the BohaiSea pollutant management zone, mainly located at the29pollutant managementregions including Beidaihe District and so on, is higher than the mean value.
3. The preliminary research on a quantitative and leveled management system of totalload control on Bohai Pollutant Discharge zone.
According to the five level quantitative management model of the land-sourcedpollutants total load control, it could implement the level quantitative managementusing the COD, nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants superovulated%for the Bohaipollutant discharge region, of which: Super ovulation rate%=(Pollutant dischargenumber density-Allocated capacity density of Administrative Region)/Allocatedcapacity density of Administrative Region. However, in the same multi-objective(non-) linear programming method that calculates the allocated capacity ofAdministrative Region is still not possible to determine the demand for additionaleconomic development, population development, pollutant discharge intensity, project discharge reductions and other constraints of the function or parametric form. In thiscase, assuming that the ratio result of Allocated capacity density of the AdministrativeRegion/Allocated capacity density of Pollutant Discharge Region of the Bohai Sea isbasically the same with the result of Qingdao City which is about0.3, the ratioexceeding the allocated capacity can be estimated through the density of allocatedcapacities of Bohai pollutant management regions. The results showed that accordingto the COD ratio exceeding the allocated capacity (see above), within the Bohai Seapollutant management zone, the area needed to be managed with the level of red andorange together takes a proportion of approximately53%, and the area needed to bemanaged with the level of green and blue together takes a proportion ofapproximately46%.
In short, in this research, according to the demand of quantitative indicators in theprocess of the “Targeted Total Load Control” converted to the “Total Pollutant LoadControl based on Environment Capacity” the method of calculating environmentcapacities and integral concentration gradient are established, which is adapted tothe ocean three-dimensional numerical model. And with the method, theenvironmental capacities of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus in Bohai are calculated.Considering the actual situation of the catchment, pollutant collection area and the seapoints, it is identified with the scope of the Bohai pollutant management and rationaldivision of42Bohai pollutant management district. Based on above two results, thisresearch use multi-objective (non-) linear programming method to get a more detailedcalculation of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants distribution capacities of42pollutant management area. And this research provides a theoretical basis for thequantitative management system of total load control on Bohai pollutant dischargeregion.
The innovation of this research is, aimed at the demand of more accurate calculationresults of environmental capacity, establishing the concentration gradient integralmethod that adapted to the ocean three-dimensional numerical model. on this basis,more detailed allocated capacities of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus of42Bohai Sea pollutant management regions is obtained, which provides a scientific basis for thequantitative indicators management system of total load control on343county withinthe Bohai pollutant discharge zone during the12th Five-Year plan.
对此，本论文研究内容主要有5个方面：（1）根据海洋环境容量的一般计算方法原理，建立适应海洋三维空间数值模型的海洋环境容量计算方法。（2）应用（1）建立的计算方法，计算渤海海域COD、氮和磷环境容量。（3）根据汇水区、集污区等一般准则，针对渤海实际纳污陆域范围，在科学确定环渤海排污管理带范围基础上，合理划分环渤海排污管理区。（4）在（2）基础上，应用多目标（非）线性规划方法，计算环渤海排污管理区COD、氮和磷分配容量。（5）根据COD、氮和磷陆源污染物超排率估算结果，初步探讨环渤海排污管理带陆源污染物排放总量控制率定量化分级管理模式。
本论文主要研究结果是：
1．渤海海域COD、氮和磷污染物环境容量计算。目前，根据污染物自净过程建立的海洋环境容量计算的一般方法原理只能适应箱式数值模型，而不能适应三维空间数值模型。这样，综合考虑水动力空间和生物地球化学时间变化特征，可以建立适应三维空间数值模型的污染物环境容量（EC）计算方法，可以称作“浓度梯度积分法”。根据数值模型在时间、空间、指标、标准等方面的特征，环境容量计算流程主要包括从纳污海域识别到环境容量计算结果评价8个环节。这里，采取渤海三维水动力（HAMSOM）-生物地球化学耦合模型进行COD、氮和磷污染物状态变量数值模拟运算。结果表明，模拟结果与监测结果基本吻合（第3章图3-5），其中氮相对偏差％（RSD）和相似性指数（SI）平均分别是51%和0.41，说明基本可以应用该模型计算渤海污染物环境容量。计算结果表明，在国家功能区水质标准条件下，渤海COD、氮（氨氮）和磷的环境容量分别约为980、93和13万吨/年，氮、磷环境容量密度（t/a/km~2约为黄海胶州湾和东海罗源湾的1/3。
2．环渤海排污管理带陆源COD、氮和磷污染物分配容量计算。排污管理区陆源污染物分配容量计算主要包括三个环节：首先，综合考虑环渤海经济圈三省两市区域中污染物排入渤海的115个汇水区、13个集污区和17个直排海企业相应共计145个入海点，确定环渤海排污管理带范围涵盖37个地级市的343个县级行政区，19个地级市的105个县级行政区不在此范围内。在此基础上，将县级行政区作为环渤海排污管理带的最小行政区，并根据污染物主要入海途径将同一行政区内的多个汇水区和集污区予以归并，在环渤海排污管理带范围内可以划分为42个排污管理区，以及黄河中上游、海河上游和辽河上游3个密切关联的带外排污管理区，前者可分为黄河、海河和辽河排污管理区系。其次，应用多目标（非）线性规划方法，可以计算42个排污管理区COD、氮和磷污染物分配容量（AC）：以各排污管理区分配容量最大为目标函数，相应约束条件主要有总量约束、水质控制点约束和非负约束条件，其中前者以海洋环境容量作为陆域分配容量阈值。最后，采用单纯形法可以计算排污管理区污染物分配容量。计算结果表明，对于COD、氮和磷污染物，环渤海排污管理“带内”分配容量平均占95%左右，而“带外”仅占5％左右。其中，黄河、海河和辽河排污管理区系分别平均占27%、30%和43%左右。分析表明，COD分配容量密度（DA）平均是3.9，其中面积占环渤海排污管理带总面积16%的区域高于均值，主要分布在北戴河区等32个排污管理区。
3．环渤海排污管理带陆源污染物排放总量控制率定量化分级管理初探。
根据陆源污染物排放总量控制五级量化管理模式，可以采用COD、氮和磷污染物超排率%对环渤海排污管理带实行分级量化管理，其中：超排率%=（污染物排放数量密度-行政区分配容量密度）/行政区分配容量密度。然而，在同样应用多目标（非）线性规划方法计算行政区分配容量中，目前尚无法具体确定所需要增设的经济发展、人口发展、污染物排放强度、工程减排等约束条件的函数化或参数化形式。在这种情况下，如果假设环渤海排污管理带行政区分配容量密度/排污管理区分配容量密度比值与青岛市结果基本相同，大约0.3，可以根据环渤海排污管理区分配容量密度粗略估算污染物超排率%。结果表明，根据COD超排率%，环渤海排污管理带范围内，需要实行红色和橙色管理的区域合计约53%，而绿色和蓝色合计约46％。
总之，本论文主要工作是按照“目标总量控制”向“容量总量控制”转变关于率定量化指标要求，建立了针对海洋三维空间数值模型的污染物环境容量计算方法，浓度梯度积分法，并应用该方法计算了渤海COD、氮和磷污染物环境容量。同时，综合考虑汇水区、集污区、入海点等实际情况，科学确定了环渤海排污管理带范围，并合理划分了42个环渤海排污管理区。以上述两项结果为基础，应用多目标（非）线性规划方法计算得到了更加细化具体的42个环渤海排污管理区COD、氮和磷污染物分配容量，为建立以行政区为责任主体的环渤海排污管理带量化管理指标体系提供了量化理论基础。
论文创新点主要是针对更加准确的环境容量计算结果的要求，建立了适应海洋三维空间数值模型的浓度梯度积分法。在此基础上，论文特色主要是得到了更加细化具体的42个环渤海排污管理区COD、氮和磷污染物分配容量，这为“十二五”规划时期环渤海排污管理带中共计343个县级行政区排放总量控制量化指标体系制定提供了科学基础。
Total Load control of Land-sourced pollutant is the basic content of achieving aresource-saving and environment-friendly socio-economic sustainable development.And it’s also an effective means to solve the atmosphere, surface water, soil andmarine pollution problems. Since the beginning of total pollutant load control researchin the middle of1980s, particularly the implementation of “Targeted Total LoadControl” plan in2006, in which COD reduction is the restricted index, the waterquality of Bohai Sea has not been improved to an extent satisfied, even after theimplementation of “Bohai Comprehensive Improvement Plan” and “Bohai Blue SeaAction plan”, due to the defects of “Targeted Total Load Control”. The areaexceeding the water quality standard of Bohai Sea increased by approximately50%in2010comparing with that in2005. According to the experience on total pollutant loadcontrol from U.S., EU and Japan, etc, it is more necessary to execute the “TotalPollutant Load Control based on Environment Capacity” instead of the “TargetedTotal Pollutant Load Control” for China. However, due to the reason that thedevelopment of calculation method of marine environment capacity usingthree-dimensional numerical models lags and etc., in many repots, not only theconcept of environmental capacity and allocated capacity is often mixed up, but alsothe calculation results are often limited to some area of the Bohai Sea or land aroundit. Particularly, up to now, Bohai pollutant discharge region has not been scientificallyand accurately divided. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to get the allocatedcapacities of pollutant discharge region around Bohai Sea based on the more accuratecalculation results of environment capacity of Bohai Sea, and to provide a scientificand theoretical basis for the scientific, accurate and quantitative management indicator system to achieve the implementation of “Total Discharge Control based onenvironment capacity”.
The main contents of this research include:
(1) According to the general principles of environment capacity’s calculation,establishing a method of calculating environment capacities, which is adapted to theocean three-dimensional numerical model.(2) Calculating the environmentalcapacities of pollutants of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus of the Bohai Sea using themethod established above.(3) According to the general principles of dividingcatchments and pollutant collecting areas and the actual land range whose pollutantentering into Bohai Sea, reasonably dividing the Bohai pollutant discharge regionBased on scientifically defining the range of Bohai discharge management belt.(4)Based on the results obtained in the (2), calculating the allocated capacities of COD,nitrogen and phosphorus of Bohai pollutant discharge regions with the method ofmulti-objective linear programming.(5) According to the estimated results ofdischarge rates of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus, preliminary proposing aquantitative and administration-leveled management system of total load control onBohai pollutant discharge region.Major results of this research are as follows:
1. Calculation Environmental capacities of Pollutants of COD, Nitrogen andPhosphorus of Bohai Sea
Currently, the general principles of the method of calculating environment capacitiesbased on pollutants’ self-purification can only be applied to the box-type numericalmodel, and cannot meet the demand of establishing three-dimensional numericalmodels. Therefore, considering the hydrodynamic space and biogeochemicaltime-varying characteristics, the method of calculating pollutants’ environmentcapacities (EC) can be established, which is adapted to the three-dimensionalnumerical model, and the results can be called “Concentration Gradient IntegralMethod”. According to the characteristics of the numerical model in terms of time,space, indicators and standards, environmental capacity calculation process includeseight sessions including from identifying waters the pollutant entering into to assessing the calculation results of environmental capacity. In this research, the Bohaithree-dimensional hydrodynamic (HAMSOM)-biogeochemical coupled model isapplied to numerical simulations of state variables of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus.The results show that the simulation results basically coincide with the monitoringresults, for nitrogen, the average relative deviation (RSD) and the similarity index (SI)is51%and0.42respectively, which illustrates that the model basically could be usedto calculate the environment capacities of pollutants of Bohai Sea. The results showthat the environment capacities of COD, nitrogen (ammonia) and phosphorus of theBohai Sea, were respectively about9.80,0.93and0.13million tons per year, and theenvironmental capacity density (t/a/km~2) of nitrogen and phosphorus wereapproximately1/3of Jiaozhou Bay of the Yellow Sea and Luoyuan Bay of the EastChina Sea under the conditions of water quality standards of the national functionalareas.
2. Calculation of allocated capacities of land-sourced COD, Nitrogen and Phosphorusof Bohai Pollutant Discharge Regions.
The calculation of land-sourced pollutants allocated capacities of Pollutant DischargeRegion includes three main components: First, considering the145points locatedaround the three provinces and two cities in the Bohai economic region wherepollutant enters into Bohai, of which there are115catchment area Zone,19pollutant collection area and17enterprise whose pollutants are discharged into theBohai sea directly, and confirming that the Bohai Sea pollutant management zonecovers343county-level administrative regions belonged to37prefecture-levelcities and105county-level administrative regions belonged to19prefecture-levelcities are outside this range. On this basis, the county-level Administrative Region issetted as the minimum Administrative Region of Bohai Sea pollutant managementzone. According to the main path of pollutants entering into sea. catchments andpollutant collection areas in the same administrative district, are merged. So, Bohaipollutant management zone can be divided into42pollutant management regions and3closely related pollutant management areas outside the region, which is the middleand upper reaches of the Yellow River and theupstream of Haihe River and Liaohe River (see above), of which the former can be further divided into Yellow Riverpollutant discharge management district, Haihe pollutant discharge managementdistrict and Liaohe pollutant discharge management district respectively. Secondly,allocated capacities (AC) of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus of the42pollutantmanagement regions are calculated with the method of multi-objective (non-) linearprogramming. and of which the maximum of allocated capacity of pollutantmanagement regions is set as the objective function and the the total pollutant load,water quality and non-negative as constraints, and the former takes Bohai’senvironmental capacity as land allocated capacity’s threshold. Finally, allocatedcapacities of pollutants of the pollutant management regions can be calculated usingthe simplex method. The results show that, as for pollutants of COD, nitrogen andphosphorus, the allocated capacities within the Bohai Sea pollutant management zoneaccounts for about95%, and that outside thezone accounts for only about5%, ofwhich Yellow River pollutant discharge management district, Haihe pollutantdischarge management district and Liaohe pollutant discharge management districtaccounted for27%,30%and43%respectively. The analysis shows that the density ofCOD allocated capacity (DA) is an average of3.9, of which16%area of the BohaiSea pollutant management zone, mainly located at the29pollutant managementregions including Beidaihe District and so on, is higher than the mean value.
3. The preliminary research on a quantitative and leveled management system of totalload control on Bohai Pollutant Discharge zone.
According to the five level quantitative management model of the land-sourcedpollutants total load control, it could implement the level quantitative managementusing the COD, nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants superovulated%for the Bohaipollutant discharge region, of which: Super ovulation rate%=(Pollutant dischargenumber density-Allocated capacity density of Administrative Region)/Allocatedcapacity density of Administrative Region. However, in the same multi-objective(non-) linear programming method that calculates the allocated capacity ofAdministrative Region is still not possible to determine the demand for additionaleconomic development, population development, pollutant discharge intensity, project discharge reductions and other constraints of the function or parametric form. In thiscase, assuming that the ratio result of Allocated capacity density of the AdministrativeRegion/Allocated capacity density of Pollutant Discharge Region of the Bohai Sea isbasically the same with the result of Qingdao City which is about0.3, the ratioexceeding the allocated capacity can be estimated through the density of allocatedcapacities of Bohai pollutant management regions. The results showed that accordingto the COD ratio exceeding the allocated capacity (see above), within the Bohai Seapollutant management zone, the area needed to be managed with the level of red andorange together takes a proportion of approximately53%, and the area needed to bemanaged with the level of green and blue together takes a proportion ofapproximately46%.
In short, in this research, according to the demand of quantitative indicators in theprocess of the “Targeted Total Load Control” converted to the “Total Pollutant LoadControl based on Environment Capacity” the method of calculating environmentcapacities and integral concentration gradient are established, which is adapted tothe ocean three-dimensional numerical model. And with the method, theenvironmental capacities of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus in Bohai are calculated.Considering the actual situation of the catchment, pollutant collection area and the seapoints, it is identified with the scope of the Bohai pollutant management and rationaldivision of42Bohai pollutant management district. Based on above two results, thisresearch use multi-objective (non-) linear programming method to get a more detailedcalculation of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants distribution capacities of42pollutant management area. And this research provides a theoretical basis for thequantitative management system of total load control on Bohai pollutant dischargeregion.
The innovation of this research is, aimed at the demand of more accurate calculationresults of environmental capacity, establishing the concentration gradient integralmethod that adapted to the ocean three-dimensional numerical model. on this basis,more detailed allocated capacities of COD, nitrogen and phosphorus of42Bohai Sea pollutant management regions is obtained, which provides a scientific basis for thequantitative indicators management system of total load control on343county withinthe Bohai pollutant discharge zone during the12th Five-Year plan.
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