我国问题银行的处置、防范与财务安排研究
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摘要
问题银行一般是指因自身经营管理上的问题或外在重大事件的影响促发严重财务危机,会引发挤兑、倒闭或破产风险的银行。问题银行恶化的严重后果就是金融危机。问题银行给各国的国民经济造成巨大损失,惨痛的损失促使理论家和政府重视研究问题银行的防范和处置。问题银行是怎么产生的?问题银行会产生多大危害?如何有效的处置和防范问题银行?国内外理论家和政府机构对问题银行的成因、处置制度安排已做了大量的研究。本文旨在围绕问题银行,梳理国内外问题银行处置的研究成果,借鉴欧美等先进经济体问题银行处置理论和实践,总结我国银行改制和问题银行处置的实践经验教训,寻找研究切入点量,分析问题银行的内在机理,结合当前新的经济形势利问题银行处置理论动向,为我国问题银行的有效处置,维护金融系统稳定,提出构建我国问题银行处置和防范的全方位三维安全网机制,以及设计银行资产动态减位准备的财务安排。
本文的内容和结构总体设计主要为四大部分,具体框架结构安排如下
第一部分包括第1、2章。第一章绪论,从研究意义、背景,文献综述、概念界定等方面分析问题银行研究的意义、出发点、研究动向和研究切入点。指出现阶段的问题银行理论研究和制度安排存在“盲区”,为此应建立新的概念体系和制度安排。问题银行的相关研究可细分为处置和防范,对已发生的问题银行侧重于一般常规处置制度的研究,隐性问题银行(未促发)应侧重于防范制度的安排。隐性问题银行的理论难点是建立基于逆周期的动态准备机制。第二章总结我国银行的发展历程和存在的问题,指出我国现在存在隐性问题银行的实际情况。
第二部分包括第3章。第3章从理论的角度分析问题银行存在的危害性和问题银行产生的原因。首先根据制度经济学关于外部性的理论观点,分析问题银行存在的危害性。然后从委托-代理冲突、泡沫经济的破裂、金融监管失灵等角度分析问题银行产生的原因,分析前期我国问题银行产生的突出原因。
第三部分包括第4、5章。第4章研究问题银行的处置分析的国际借鉴。研究海外问题银行处置的救助机制、市场退出机制和存款保险制度(投资者保护制度)等成熟做法,虽然这些国家的所有制形式、经济发展水平以及历史时期跟中国未必相同,但对国际通行的处置问题银行的经验和教训做出归纳,可以选择性的被我国问题银行处置研究进行借鉴。第5章研究我国问题银行的处置的历史历程,分析我国问题银行处置的成果,首先分析我国设置四大资产管理公司及处置银行不良资产的情况,然后分析我国银行改制、引进战略投资、上市过程所取得的经验成效,最后指出我国银行当前面临的国内外新的挑战、问题,指出构建问题银行处置和防范机制的迫切性和设想。
第四部分包括第6、7章。第6章研究我国问题银行防治的安全网构建,结合当前的研究动向和经济形势,在前文分析的基础上,得出结论：从微观财务结构控制、中观会计制度设计和宏观系统监控层面提出建立三维动态安全网机制；根据我国银行发展现状,通过加快银行战略发展,建立防御问题银行的自身强化机制；指出当前防范问题银行安全网机制中的存在财务安排缺失,提出银行资产动态减值准备安排的必要性。第7章阐述银行资产减值动态准备模型的建立,基于极值理论、宏观压力测试系统,进行参数概率分布设定,进行蒙特卡罗实例仿真模拟,建立动态减值准备模型(Dynamic Loss Provision Model,简称DLPM),进一步进行DLPM模型成效分析。
最后第8章得出论文结论、政策建议和问题展望。
本文的观点和创新之处主要在于：(1)对问题银行方面的研究在国外并不鲜见,但从问题银行处置和防范制度安排作全方位的系统研究是一种全新尝试。(2)概念上,将问题银行分为隐性问题银行和显性问题银行。根据银行体系的脆弱性、“委托-代理”冲突、泡沫经济的破灭、金融市场失灵等理论,以及问题银行的传染性危害,得出银行自身存在常态隐性问题的观点。(3)问题银行有自己独特的依赖性路径,这条路径的重点是建立自我强化机制,不能简单被锁定在“被收购或破产倒闭”的死路上。(4)问题银行处置方式包括救助、重组利市场退出,问题银行的三种处置制度安排之间存在一个制度边界问题,使得管理当局对有问题银行作出正式的处置制度安排时往往要进行动态处置成本与收益的比较。(5)从微观则务结构控制、中观会计制度设计和宏观系统监控层面提出建立三维动态安全网机制。(6)根据我国银行发展现状,通过加快银行战略发展,建立防御问题银行的自身强化机制。(7)指出防范问题银行安全网机制中的存在财务安排缺失,提出建立基于极值理论、宏观压力测试系统、蒙特卡罗仿真模拟的银行资产动态减值准备模型的财务安排。
Problematic banks normally refers to the banks with internal operating management problem or facing serious financail crisis cause by external significant event, which would cause a run on a bank, closing-down or bankruptcy. Effect of problematic banks deterioration is financial crisis. Problematic banks cause a great economic loss to a country. As a result, theoretician and government pay close attention to dealing and prevention of problematic banks. How do problematic banks emerge? What kind of damages it creates? How to deal and prevent problematic banks effectively? Foreign and local theoreticans and government have made a great deal of study on the causes, handling policy arrangement of problematic banks.
This paper focuses on problematic banks, studies the theorectical reseach and practical result of problematic banks handling, takes example of developed economic systems like Europe and the U.S. problematic banks'management theory and practise, summarizes our country's problematic banks management and practical result, searching the cutting-point of the study, analysing problematic banks internal system theory, incorporating current economic situation and problematic banks management theory direction, dealing effectively with problematic banks, maintaining the fmanical system stability, proposing a complete three dimention safty network for establishing our country's problematic banks managemnt and prevention, and setting banks asset dynamic loss provision accounting arrangement.
This paper's content and general structure is divided into4main parts, detailed framework structure arrangement is as follow:
The first part includes chapter1and2. Chapter1is introduction. From area like study significance, background, paper introdcution, concept, analyses problematic banks research significance, consideration, study direction and study cutting-point. Pointing out the existence of'blind spot" in current study and policy arrangement of problematic banks. Therefore, new conceptual system and policy arrangement should be established:the related study of problematic banks can be divided into management and prevention. Conventional management policiy study are for those banks with problems, and preventional policy arrangements are for invisible problematic banks. Invisible banks theoretical difficulty is setting up dynamic preserved system base on inverse cycle. Chapter2summarises our country's banks developemnt history and the exiting problem, points out our country's invisible banks'practical situation.
The second part inclueds chapter3. This chapter analyses the harmfulness and causes of problematic banks from theorectical viewpoint.. Firstly, according to external theorectial point of policy economic, analyses the harmfulness of the existence of problematic banks. And then analyses the causes of prooblematic banks and the prominent reasons of these banks from the viewpoints of agency conflict, bursting of bubble economic, financial monitoring malfuntion.
The third part includes chapter4and5. Chapter4uses international examples to study problematic banks management analysis. Studing mature methods of foreign problematic banks management of remedy system, market exit system and deposit insurance system(investor protection policy). Although these countrys'system of ownership, economic development level and historical stage is different from China, through summarising the experiences and lessons of foreign conventional management method towards problematic banks, it will set a research example to our country's problematic banks management. Chapter5studies the historical progress of our country's banks management, analyses the result of our country's problematic banks management. First of all, it analyses our country setting up4asset management company and handles banks'bad debts. And then analyses the experiencial result of our country's commercial banks evolution, introducing strategic investment, and listing process. At last, it figures out the current local and foreign challenges, problem, pointing out the urgency and propose of establishing the preventions system of problematic banks management.
The forth part includes chapter6and7. Chapter6studies safety network construction of preventing and manageing our country'problematic banks. Incorporating current study direction and economic situation, conclusion is drawm on the base of previous analysis:Base on micro financial structure control, middle accounting policy design and macro system monitoring, establishing3dimentional safety network system is proposed; According to our country's banks development status, banks strategic development pace should be fasten, preventional self-strengthen system of problematic banks should be set up; The paper points out the financial arrangement deficiency in our country's problematic banks safety network system, proposes the urgency of bank asset dynamic loss provision arrangement. Chapter7states the establishment of bank asset reduction dynamic provision model, base on absolute value theory, macro pressure testing system, setting parameter pobability distribution, process Monte-carlo case simulation, setting up dynamic loss provision model, further analyses DLPM effectiveness. As last(chapter8) conclusion is made, giving policy suggestion and prospect. The innovation of this paper is:
1. It's not rare to study problematic banks in foreign counties. However, it's a new trial to systematically study wide on every side about problematic banks management and prevention policy arrangement.
2. Conceptually, problematic banks are divided into recessive and dominant problematic banks, and problematic banks contagious harmfulness, concluding the viewpoint of bank self exit nomal recessive problem.
3. Problematic banks have their own dependent path. It's important to build self strengthening system base on this path which should not be conered at"taking-over or bankruptcy closing down"
4. Problematic banks handling methods including:providing help, re-structuring and market withdrawing. A policy border issue exits in problematic banks3handling polciy arrangement, which leads the management make a dynamic handling cost and return analysis in the official process of managing the policy arrangement of problematic banks.
5. Base on micro financial structure control, middle accounting policy design and macro system monitoring, proposed the establishment of3dimentional safety network system.
6. Accounting to our country's bank development status, through fastening the banking stratigic development pace, establishing preventional problematic banks self strengthening system.
7. Pointing out the financial arrangement deficiency in problematic banks safety network system, proposed a bank asset dynamic loss provision model financial arrangement base on absolute value theory, macro pressure testing system, and Monte-carlo simulation.
本文的内容和结构总体设计主要为四大部分,具体框架结构安排如下
第一部分包括第1、2章。第一章绪论,从研究意义、背景,文献综述、概念界定等方面分析问题银行研究的意义、出发点、研究动向和研究切入点。指出现阶段的问题银行理论研究和制度安排存在“盲区”,为此应建立新的概念体系和制度安排。问题银行的相关研究可细分为处置和防范,对已发生的问题银行侧重于一般常规处置制度的研究,隐性问题银行(未促发)应侧重于防范制度的安排。隐性问题银行的理论难点是建立基于逆周期的动态准备机制。第二章总结我国银行的发展历程和存在的问题,指出我国现在存在隐性问题银行的实际情况。
第二部分包括第3章。第3章从理论的角度分析问题银行存在的危害性和问题银行产生的原因。首先根据制度经济学关于外部性的理论观点,分析问题银行存在的危害性。然后从委托-代理冲突、泡沫经济的破裂、金融监管失灵等角度分析问题银行产生的原因,分析前期我国问题银行产生的突出原因。
第三部分包括第4、5章。第4章研究问题银行的处置分析的国际借鉴。研究海外问题银行处置的救助机制、市场退出机制和存款保险制度(投资者保护制度)等成熟做法,虽然这些国家的所有制形式、经济发展水平以及历史时期跟中国未必相同,但对国际通行的处置问题银行的经验和教训做出归纳,可以选择性的被我国问题银行处置研究进行借鉴。第5章研究我国问题银行的处置的历史历程,分析我国问题银行处置的成果,首先分析我国设置四大资产管理公司及处置银行不良资产的情况,然后分析我国银行改制、引进战略投资、上市过程所取得的经验成效,最后指出我国银行当前面临的国内外新的挑战、问题,指出构建问题银行处置和防范机制的迫切性和设想。
第四部分包括第6、7章。第6章研究我国问题银行防治的安全网构建,结合当前的研究动向和经济形势,在前文分析的基础上,得出结论：从微观财务结构控制、中观会计制度设计和宏观系统监控层面提出建立三维动态安全网机制；根据我国银行发展现状,通过加快银行战略发展,建立防御问题银行的自身强化机制；指出当前防范问题银行安全网机制中的存在财务安排缺失,提出银行资产动态减值准备安排的必要性。第7章阐述银行资产减值动态准备模型的建立,基于极值理论、宏观压力测试系统,进行参数概率分布设定,进行蒙特卡罗实例仿真模拟,建立动态减值准备模型(Dynamic Loss Provision Model,简称DLPM),进一步进行DLPM模型成效分析。
最后第8章得出论文结论、政策建议和问题展望。
本文的观点和创新之处主要在于：(1)对问题银行方面的研究在国外并不鲜见,但从问题银行处置和防范制度安排作全方位的系统研究是一种全新尝试。(2)概念上,将问题银行分为隐性问题银行和显性问题银行。根据银行体系的脆弱性、“委托-代理”冲突、泡沫经济的破灭、金融市场失灵等理论,以及问题银行的传染性危害,得出银行自身存在常态隐性问题的观点。(3)问题银行有自己独特的依赖性路径,这条路径的重点是建立自我强化机制,不能简单被锁定在“被收购或破产倒闭”的死路上。(4)问题银行处置方式包括救助、重组利市场退出,问题银行的三种处置制度安排之间存在一个制度边界问题,使得管理当局对有问题银行作出正式的处置制度安排时往往要进行动态处置成本与收益的比较。(5)从微观则务结构控制、中观会计制度设计和宏观系统监控层面提出建立三维动态安全网机制。(6)根据我国银行发展现状,通过加快银行战略发展,建立防御问题银行的自身强化机制。(7)指出防范问题银行安全网机制中的存在财务安排缺失,提出建立基于极值理论、宏观压力测试系统、蒙特卡罗仿真模拟的银行资产动态减值准备模型的财务安排。
Problematic banks normally refers to the banks with internal operating management problem or facing serious financail crisis cause by external significant event, which would cause a run on a bank, closing-down or bankruptcy. Effect of problematic banks deterioration is financial crisis. Problematic banks cause a great economic loss to a country. As a result, theoretician and government pay close attention to dealing and prevention of problematic banks. How do problematic banks emerge? What kind of damages it creates? How to deal and prevent problematic banks effectively? Foreign and local theoreticans and government have made a great deal of study on the causes, handling policy arrangement of problematic banks.
This paper focuses on problematic banks, studies the theorectical reseach and practical result of problematic banks handling, takes example of developed economic systems like Europe and the U.S. problematic banks'management theory and practise, summarizes our country's problematic banks management and practical result, searching the cutting-point of the study, analysing problematic banks internal system theory, incorporating current economic situation and problematic banks management theory direction, dealing effectively with problematic banks, maintaining the fmanical system stability, proposing a complete three dimention safty network for establishing our country's problematic banks managemnt and prevention, and setting banks asset dynamic loss provision accounting arrangement.
This paper's content and general structure is divided into4main parts, detailed framework structure arrangement is as follow:
The first part includes chapter1and2. Chapter1is introduction. From area like study significance, background, paper introdcution, concept, analyses problematic banks research significance, consideration, study direction and study cutting-point. Pointing out the existence of'blind spot" in current study and policy arrangement of problematic banks. Therefore, new conceptual system and policy arrangement should be established:the related study of problematic banks can be divided into management and prevention. Conventional management policiy study are for those banks with problems, and preventional policy arrangements are for invisible problematic banks. Invisible banks theoretical difficulty is setting up dynamic preserved system base on inverse cycle. Chapter2summarises our country's banks developemnt history and the exiting problem, points out our country's invisible banks'practical situation.
The second part inclueds chapter3. This chapter analyses the harmfulness and causes of problematic banks from theorectical viewpoint.. Firstly, according to external theorectial point of policy economic, analyses the harmfulness of the existence of problematic banks. And then analyses the causes of prooblematic banks and the prominent reasons of these banks from the viewpoints of agency conflict, bursting of bubble economic, financial monitoring malfuntion.
The third part includes chapter4and5. Chapter4uses international examples to study problematic banks management analysis. Studing mature methods of foreign problematic banks management of remedy system, market exit system and deposit insurance system(investor protection policy). Although these countrys'system of ownership, economic development level and historical stage is different from China, through summarising the experiences and lessons of foreign conventional management method towards problematic banks, it will set a research example to our country's problematic banks management. Chapter5studies the historical progress of our country's banks management, analyses the result of our country's problematic banks management. First of all, it analyses our country setting up4asset management company and handles banks'bad debts. And then analyses the experiencial result of our country's commercial banks evolution, introducing strategic investment, and listing process. At last, it figures out the current local and foreign challenges, problem, pointing out the urgency and propose of establishing the preventions system of problematic banks management.
The forth part includes chapter6and7. Chapter6studies safety network construction of preventing and manageing our country'problematic banks. Incorporating current study direction and economic situation, conclusion is drawm on the base of previous analysis:Base on micro financial structure control, middle accounting policy design and macro system monitoring, establishing3dimentional safety network system is proposed; According to our country's banks development status, banks strategic development pace should be fasten, preventional self-strengthen system of problematic banks should be set up; The paper points out the financial arrangement deficiency in our country's problematic banks safety network system, proposes the urgency of bank asset dynamic loss provision arrangement. Chapter7states the establishment of bank asset reduction dynamic provision model, base on absolute value theory, macro pressure testing system, setting parameter pobability distribution, process Monte-carlo case simulation, setting up dynamic loss provision model, further analyses DLPM effectiveness. As last(chapter8) conclusion is made, giving policy suggestion and prospect. The innovation of this paper is:
1. It's not rare to study problematic banks in foreign counties. However, it's a new trial to systematically study wide on every side about problematic banks management and prevention policy arrangement.
2. Conceptually, problematic banks are divided into recessive and dominant problematic banks, and problematic banks contagious harmfulness, concluding the viewpoint of bank self exit nomal recessive problem.
3. Problematic banks have their own dependent path. It's important to build self strengthening system base on this path which should not be conered at"taking-over or bankruptcy closing down"
4. Problematic banks handling methods including:providing help, re-structuring and market withdrawing. A policy border issue exits in problematic banks3handling polciy arrangement, which leads the management make a dynamic handling cost and return analysis in the official process of managing the policy arrangement of problematic banks.
5. Base on micro financial structure control, middle accounting policy design and macro system monitoring, proposed the establishment of3dimentional safety network system.
6. Accounting to our country's bank development status, through fastening the banking stratigic development pace, establishing preventional problematic banks self strengthening system.
7. Pointing out the financial arrangement deficiency in problematic banks safety network system, proposed a bank asset dynamic loss provision model financial arrangement base on absolute value theory, macro pressure testing system, and Monte-carlo simulation.
引文
①温家宝《政府工作报告》2012年3月12日
②2010年6月25日的G20多伦多峰会
④孔丹凤,秦大忠.日本对问题银行的资金救助机制分析与启示.投资研究,2007年第9期.
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②2010年6月25日的G20多伦多峰会
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