油气长输管道事故风险分析与选线方法研究
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摘要
管道运输是油品和天然气进行长距离运输的首选方案，建立在风险分析基础上的选线方法对于保障管道周围人员安全、保证长输管道安全运行具有积极作用。在分析油气长输管道典型事故案例,开展储运介质等5个方面的风险因素研究,统计欧美国家长输管道失效数据,确定第三方损害、腐蚀、设计和误操作等4类因素在我国所导致事故比例的基础上,建立了基于风险因素分析的长输管道失效概率修正模型。通过构建事故后果计算程序并对喷射火和爆炸进行模拟,确定了热辐射和爆炸冲击波的影响范围。制定了我国的油气长输管道风险容许标准,建议采用3×10-7/每年、1×10-6/每年、5×10-6/每年和5×10-5/每年作为4类典型对象的个人风险可容许标准。建立了以事故风险和建设成本为两个优化目标的管道选线模型,提出了长输管道个体死亡概率的计算方法,运用动态规划算法实现了对选线模型的求解,并结合工程实例进行了应用。论文的研究成果为油气长输管道选线提供了科学合理的方法。
Pipeline transport is the scheme of first choice for long-distance transport of oil products and natural gas. The pipeline selection method based on risk analysis plays a positive role because it can guarantee the safety of the persons around the pipeline and the safe operation of long-distance pipeline. On the basis of analysis of typical accidents occurring in the long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline, conducting of risk factors research in five aspects including storage and transport media, statistics of the failure data on European and American long-distance pipeline, and determination of the proportion of the accidents in China resulting from four kinds of factors (the third party damage, erosion, design and false operation), this dissertation established the long-distance pipeline failure probability revision model based on risk factor analysis. By constructing the computation program for accident consequence and simulating the jet fire and explosion, the influential scope of thermal radiation and explosion shock wave was identified. Then, the allowable risk standard for China's long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline was laid down. It was suggested that3×10-7/year,1×10-6/year,5×10-6/year and5×10-5/year should be considered as the personal allowable risk standard for four types of typical object. The pipeline route selection model which accident risk and construction cost were taken as two optimized targets was established. The method of calculation of individual death probability in long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline was put forward. At last, the solution of the pipeline selection model was sought by employing dynamic programming algorithm, which was applied in engineering cases. The research results of this dissertation provide scientific and reasonable method for route selection of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline.
Pipeline transport is the scheme of first choice for long-distance transport of oil products and natural gas. The pipeline selection method based on risk analysis plays a positive role because it can guarantee the safety of the persons around the pipeline and the safe operation of long-distance pipeline. On the basis of analysis of typical accidents occurring in the long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline, conducting of risk factors research in five aspects including storage and transport media, statistics of the failure data on European and American long-distance pipeline, and determination of the proportion of the accidents in China resulting from four kinds of factors (the third party damage, erosion, design and false operation), this dissertation established the long-distance pipeline failure probability revision model based on risk factor analysis. By constructing the computation program for accident consequence and simulating the jet fire and explosion, the influential scope of thermal radiation and explosion shock wave was identified. Then, the allowable risk standard for China's long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline was laid down. It was suggested that3×10-7/year,1×10-6/year,5×10-6/year and5×10-5/year should be considered as the personal allowable risk standard for four types of typical object. The pipeline route selection model which accident risk and construction cost were taken as two optimized targets was established. The method of calculation of individual death probability in long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline was put forward. At last, the solution of the pipeline selection model was sought by employing dynamic programming algorithm, which was applied in engineering cases. The research results of this dissertation provide scientific and reasonable method for route selection of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipeline.
引文
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