城市轨道交通系统经济效益分析
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摘要
随着城市轨道交通建设进程加快,城市综合客运系统结构逐渐综合化,科学论证系统经济效益不仅能提升系统客运服务能力和服务效率,实现供需匹配,而且也能优化系统资源配置,实现系统统筹和组合优化。基于此,论文通过界定城市轨道交通系统经济效益范畴,从线网合理规模、系统车辆设备合理选型、票制票价和运营规划四个方面深入研究系统经济效益。
1、在界定城市综合客运系统结构、城市轨道交通系统组成的基础上,从需求、供给和系统结构三个角度论证城市轨道交通系统规划建设的必要性。通过界定城市轨道交通系统服务对象和系统功能定位,指出系统具有交通功能属性和经济效益属性,提升系统交通功能属性应注重城市综合客运系统结构优化和城市综合公交统筹；提升系统经济效益属性应注重研究系统合理经济规模、票制票价、运营规划,促进发挥系统经济效益和社会效益。
2、界定了城市轨道交通系统线网合理经济规模的范畴并解析了线网合理性的内涵。在此基础上,引入系统工程的思想,建立影响因素结构模型。通过分析城市轨道交通客流时空分布特征和客流成长规律特征,建立了基于出行者需求的合理经济规模模型、基于经营者角度的合理经济规模模型和基于社会经济系统分析的合理经济规模模型,得出城市轨道交通系统合理经济规模研究不能脱离城市交通系统结构和出行结构的特征约束,在确定主出行路径时应慎重考虑远期高峰小时单向最大断面客流能否得到高断面客流区间集合的支撑,以修正规模测算结果。
3、论文以客流特征作为选型的基石,注重系统能力和经济性,建立了基于系统经济性的合理车辆选型全过程和基于经济性的车辆设备选型模型。在此基础上得出：不能以现状资料或预测数据直接全盘决定整个城市轨道交通系统车辆设备型号,应建立分阶段决策系统合理的车辆设备型号思想和观点；远期高峰小时单向最大断面客流不是选型的边界,应考虑资源共享特性,注重不同线路的协调。
4、系统合理票制票价制定即是实现系统客运需求与系统能力匹配的过程。在界定城市轨道交通系统运输产品、票价和影响因素分析的基础上,分析票价与需求的弹性关系和不同票制票价的经济社会效益,提出票价制定应具阶段性,出行者期望票价与决策者票价制定具有Nash均衡过程。通过分析城市综合客运走廊“方式—分担”关系和票价与需求的灵敏性,指出出行者方式选择是自身特征向量、交通方式特征向量等多维因素综合决定,从而建立基于经济性考虑的票制票价模型。
5、在界定城市轨道交通运营规划内容范畴和分析运营规划影响因素基础上,结合论证合理编组方案、合理列车交路选择、运输能力配置和票务清分等经济性分析以及考察系统运营规划客流分析,立足于系统编组模式具有阶段适应特性的思想,构建了基于供需能力匹配和运营公司效益最佳的多目标最佳编组优化模型。
综上所述,城市轨道交通系统经济效益分析,包含城市轨道交通系统属性分析,系统线网合理经济规模、系统选型、票制票价和运营规划等相关问题,论文对此作了较为深入的研究,为城市轨道交通系统规划决策和运营公司经济效益的提升提供了理论基础。
With the acceleration of urban rail transit construction, its network configuration became complicated and studying the economic benefit of the system can not only promote its serving and efficiency ability to passenger transportation as to match the balance between supplies and demands, but also can optimize and reasonably allocate its recourses as to realize the combinatorial optimization and overall planning of the system, so as to promote its social economic benefits. Based on that, this paper defines the boundary for the economic benefits of urban rail transit system and studies the economic benefits from four aspects which are rational scale of networks, rational system selection of system and vehicle facilities, ticket system and pricing, and operation planning.
1. Based on the definition of urban comprehensive passenger transportation system and urban rail transit system, this paper elaborates the necessity for the planning and construction of urban rail transit system from three angles which are demands, supplies and system structures. With the definition of the service objects and function orientation for urban rail transit system, this paper points out that the double attributes of the system which are the transportation attribute and economic benefits attribute. And it points out that attentions should be paid on structure optimization of urban comprehensive passenger transportation system and the overall planning of urban comprehensive transit when it comes to promote the transportation attribute of urban rail transit system. Meanwhile, attentions should be paid on the study of rational economic scales, the ticket system and pricing and operation planning when it comes to promote the economic attribute of urban rail transit system, so as to accelerate the economic and social benefits of the system.
2. This paper defines the boundary of the urban rail transit networks'rational economic scale and analyzes the meaning for network scale rationality. Then it puts forward that it should study the rationality of system's network rational economic scale from three aspects which are necessity, feasibility and irreplaceability. With those backgrounds, this paper introduces the thought of system engineering and builds the structure model of affection factors. And three models about rational scales are built from the angle of passenger demands, operating managers and social economic systems. And its study should take the system structure and trip structure of urban transportation system into consideration. Besides, to fix the result of system scale, consideration should be taken on the facts that whether the sets of max section of passenger flow can meet the single-way max section of passenger flow at peak hours in the long-term plan, when decision is made on main trip tracks.
3. In this article, passenger traffic characteristics are chosen as the basic of the selection of types, focusing on system capacity and economy, establishing the whole process of the selection of rational vehicles based on the systems economics and proposing a model of vehicle equipment selection based on economics. Then the conclusion that vehicle equipment types in the whole urban rail transit system cannot be determined by status information and anticipated data directly and completely is reached, pointing out ideas and views that rational vehicle equipment types are determined by phased decisions should be established.
4. Products of urban railway transportation systems are displacement of seats. Rational ticket system and price for systems are the process that matches passenger demands and system capabilities. Elasticity relationships between prices and demands, economic and social benefits of different ticket price developments are analyzed on the basis of definition of products of urban railway transportation systems and rational prices and influential factors, proposing that tickets developments should cover several stages, and travellers'anticipated tickets prices match the Nash equilibrium progress with tickets prices developments decided by decision makers. By analyzing "approach-sharing" relationship in urban comprehensive passenger transportation corridor and the sensitivity of price and demand, this paper points out that mode splits of passengers are determined by vectors describing their own characteristics, vectors describing characteristics of transportations'modes and multi-dimensional feature vectors, in order to establish model for ticket system and price based on considerations of economic.
5. On the basis of the definition of the content areas about urban rail transit operations planning and analyzing influential factors about operation planning, combining with arguments for some economics analysis (such as rational grouping scheme, choosing a rational trains cross-road, transport capacity, configuration, tickets sorting etc.), observation for passenger volumes analysis on system operation planning and the ideas of system grouping model with stage adaptations, this paper builds a multi-objective optimization model about the best grouping based on matching the demand and supply with the largest benefits of operating companies.
In summary, economic analysis of urban rail transit systems includes urban rail transit system property analysis, rational economy scale of nets, system selection, tickets system and pricing, operation planning and other related issues, which are researched deeply in this article. It provides a theoretical basis for urban rail transit system decision or planning and the improvements of the benefits of operating companies.
1、在界定城市综合客运系统结构、城市轨道交通系统组成的基础上,从需求、供给和系统结构三个角度论证城市轨道交通系统规划建设的必要性。通过界定城市轨道交通系统服务对象和系统功能定位,指出系统具有交通功能属性和经济效益属性,提升系统交通功能属性应注重城市综合客运系统结构优化和城市综合公交统筹；提升系统经济效益属性应注重研究系统合理经济规模、票制票价、运营规划,促进发挥系统经济效益和社会效益。
2、界定了城市轨道交通系统线网合理经济规模的范畴并解析了线网合理性的内涵。在此基础上,引入系统工程的思想,建立影响因素结构模型。通过分析城市轨道交通客流时空分布特征和客流成长规律特征,建立了基于出行者需求的合理经济规模模型、基于经营者角度的合理经济规模模型和基于社会经济系统分析的合理经济规模模型,得出城市轨道交通系统合理经济规模研究不能脱离城市交通系统结构和出行结构的特征约束,在确定主出行路径时应慎重考虑远期高峰小时单向最大断面客流能否得到高断面客流区间集合的支撑,以修正规模测算结果。
3、论文以客流特征作为选型的基石,注重系统能力和经济性,建立了基于系统经济性的合理车辆选型全过程和基于经济性的车辆设备选型模型。在此基础上得出：不能以现状资料或预测数据直接全盘决定整个城市轨道交通系统车辆设备型号,应建立分阶段决策系统合理的车辆设备型号思想和观点；远期高峰小时单向最大断面客流不是选型的边界,应考虑资源共享特性,注重不同线路的协调。
4、系统合理票制票价制定即是实现系统客运需求与系统能力匹配的过程。在界定城市轨道交通系统运输产品、票价和影响因素分析的基础上,分析票价与需求的弹性关系和不同票制票价的经济社会效益,提出票价制定应具阶段性,出行者期望票价与决策者票价制定具有Nash均衡过程。通过分析城市综合客运走廊“方式—分担”关系和票价与需求的灵敏性,指出出行者方式选择是自身特征向量、交通方式特征向量等多维因素综合决定,从而建立基于经济性考虑的票制票价模型。
5、在界定城市轨道交通运营规划内容范畴和分析运营规划影响因素基础上,结合论证合理编组方案、合理列车交路选择、运输能力配置和票务清分等经济性分析以及考察系统运营规划客流分析,立足于系统编组模式具有阶段适应特性的思想,构建了基于供需能力匹配和运营公司效益最佳的多目标最佳编组优化模型。
综上所述,城市轨道交通系统经济效益分析,包含城市轨道交通系统属性分析,系统线网合理经济规模、系统选型、票制票价和运营规划等相关问题,论文对此作了较为深入的研究,为城市轨道交通系统规划决策和运营公司经济效益的提升提供了理论基础。
With the acceleration of urban rail transit construction, its network configuration became complicated and studying the economic benefit of the system can not only promote its serving and efficiency ability to passenger transportation as to match the balance between supplies and demands, but also can optimize and reasonably allocate its recourses as to realize the combinatorial optimization and overall planning of the system, so as to promote its social economic benefits. Based on that, this paper defines the boundary for the economic benefits of urban rail transit system and studies the economic benefits from four aspects which are rational scale of networks, rational system selection of system and vehicle facilities, ticket system and pricing, and operation planning.
1. Based on the definition of urban comprehensive passenger transportation system and urban rail transit system, this paper elaborates the necessity for the planning and construction of urban rail transit system from three angles which are demands, supplies and system structures. With the definition of the service objects and function orientation for urban rail transit system, this paper points out that the double attributes of the system which are the transportation attribute and economic benefits attribute. And it points out that attentions should be paid on structure optimization of urban comprehensive passenger transportation system and the overall planning of urban comprehensive transit when it comes to promote the transportation attribute of urban rail transit system. Meanwhile, attentions should be paid on the study of rational economic scales, the ticket system and pricing and operation planning when it comes to promote the economic attribute of urban rail transit system, so as to accelerate the economic and social benefits of the system.
2. This paper defines the boundary of the urban rail transit networks'rational economic scale and analyzes the meaning for network scale rationality. Then it puts forward that it should study the rationality of system's network rational economic scale from three aspects which are necessity, feasibility and irreplaceability. With those backgrounds, this paper introduces the thought of system engineering and builds the structure model of affection factors. And three models about rational scales are built from the angle of passenger demands, operating managers and social economic systems. And its study should take the system structure and trip structure of urban transportation system into consideration. Besides, to fix the result of system scale, consideration should be taken on the facts that whether the sets of max section of passenger flow can meet the single-way max section of passenger flow at peak hours in the long-term plan, when decision is made on main trip tracks.
3. In this article, passenger traffic characteristics are chosen as the basic of the selection of types, focusing on system capacity and economy, establishing the whole process of the selection of rational vehicles based on the systems economics and proposing a model of vehicle equipment selection based on economics. Then the conclusion that vehicle equipment types in the whole urban rail transit system cannot be determined by status information and anticipated data directly and completely is reached, pointing out ideas and views that rational vehicle equipment types are determined by phased decisions should be established.
4. Products of urban railway transportation systems are displacement of seats. Rational ticket system and price for systems are the process that matches passenger demands and system capabilities. Elasticity relationships between prices and demands, economic and social benefits of different ticket price developments are analyzed on the basis of definition of products of urban railway transportation systems and rational prices and influential factors, proposing that tickets developments should cover several stages, and travellers'anticipated tickets prices match the Nash equilibrium progress with tickets prices developments decided by decision makers. By analyzing "approach-sharing" relationship in urban comprehensive passenger transportation corridor and the sensitivity of price and demand, this paper points out that mode splits of passengers are determined by vectors describing their own characteristics, vectors describing characteristics of transportations'modes and multi-dimensional feature vectors, in order to establish model for ticket system and price based on considerations of economic.
5. On the basis of the definition of the content areas about urban rail transit operations planning and analyzing influential factors about operation planning, combining with arguments for some economics analysis (such as rational grouping scheme, choosing a rational trains cross-road, transport capacity, configuration, tickets sorting etc.), observation for passenger volumes analysis on system operation planning and the ideas of system grouping model with stage adaptations, this paper builds a multi-objective optimization model about the best grouping based on matching the demand and supply with the largest benefits of operating companies.
In summary, economic analysis of urban rail transit systems includes urban rail transit system property analysis, rational economy scale of nets, system selection, tickets system and pricing, operation planning and other related issues, which are researched deeply in this article. It provides a theoretical basis for urban rail transit system decision or planning and the improvements of the benefits of operating companies.
引文
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