陕南山区县域滑坡灾害风险管理研究
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摘要
滑坡灾害风险管理研究是当前工程地质领域研究的热点和难点之一。我国滑坡灾害风险管理研究尚处于探索阶段，在技术流程、研究方法等方面与国际流行的滑坡灾害风险管理之间存在较大差异。陕南山区是我国滑坡灾害高发区和重灾区之一，开展陕南山区县域滑坡灾害风险管理方法的探索和研究，对区内滑坡灾害防灾减灾具有重要的理论和实际意义，对我国其它地区滑坡灾害风险管理研究也具有一定的参考价值。
在分析国内外已有研究成果的基础上，从基本概念、目的任务、研究内容等方面分析探讨了县域滑坡灾害风险管理的基本体系，并将滑坡灾害动态风险分析和预报预警相结合，完善了县域滑坡灾害风险管理的技术流程。以宁强县滑坡灾害为例，通过进行滑坡灾害风险调查和影响因素分析，研究得出了滑坡灾害风险分析的指标，并结合定性分析与定量计算，从单体、全县区域不同空间尺度和滑坡灾害年风险分析、动态风险分析的不同时间尺度，研究构建了县域滑坡灾害风险分析的方法、流程和技术准则。通过对我国近年来地质灾害造成的人员伤亡数据分析，确定了单体地质灾害生命风险可接受水平的上限为10~(-6)/a、可容忍水平的上限为10~(-4)/a，新建工程边坡生命风险可接受水平的上限为10~(-7)/a、可容忍水平的上限为10~(-5)/a的生命风险容许标准（即生命风险定量评价标准）；结合宁强县社会经济发展实际，给出了单体滑坡灾害经济风险容许标准（即经济风险定量评价标准）的确定方法；结合滑坡危险性与危害性的定性分析，给出了单体滑坡灾害和全县区域滑坡灾害风险定性分级与评价标准，并分析探讨了县域滑坡灾害风险处置的基本方法和技术流程。
针对陕南山区县域滑坡灾害防灾减灾实际需求，在对县域滑坡灾害风险管理方法、技术标准等研究的基础上，以MapGIS6.7为GIS开发平台、 SQL Server2008为数据库管理系统、C#为开发语言，研发了县域滑坡灾害风险管理信息系统（CLRMIS）。结合宁强县滑坡灾害实际对CLRMIS系统进行了应用研究，结果表明CLRMIS系统可较为有效的服务于县域滑坡灾害风险管理与防灾减灾工作。
Landslide risk management is a research focus in the fields of hazard geology andengineering geology, and it is also an important part of the disaster prevention and mitigationstrategy system. In China, landslide risk management is still at the exploratory stage comparedwith the international popular management, including the technical processes and methods.The mountainous area in the south of Shaanxi Province is one of the severely afflicted areaswith high incidence of geological disasters in China, and the landslide casualties and propertylosses take place almost every year. In view of these reasons, a study on the landslide riskmanagement of county region has an important and practical significance to disasterprevention and mitigation of these areas.
A case study was carried out based on the landslide risk investigation in NingqiangCounty, a mountainous area of the southern Shaanxi Province. The indicators, methods,flowcharts and technical guidelines of risk analysis were studied both from the qualitativeanalysis and quantitative evaluation, and from different spatial and temporal scales as well.
The risk tolerability criteria for the loss of life was discussed and defined by usingstatistical and comparative analysis method based on the recent year’s casualties caused bylandslides in China and other twelve frequently-occurring provinces of China, that is: theupper limit of the acceptable risk is1×10~(-6)per annum and the maximum of tolerable risk is1×10~(-4)per annum for the natural landslides, and for the engineered slopes, the upper limit ofthe acceptable risk is1×10~(-7)per annum and the maximum of the tolerable risk is1×10~(-5)perannum. The methods for determine economic risk criteria of county landslide was discussedwith the socio-economic development actual of Ningqiang County. The landslide risk gradingand evaluation matrix was defined by the landslide hazard and harmfulness qualitative analysis.What’s more, the landslide risk treatment methods and flowcharts were also analyzed anddiscussed.
Finally, the County Landslide Risk Management Information System (CLRMIS) was developed and achieved on the basis of theoretical research. The system was applied andtested by landslide data in Ningqiang County, and the results show that the CLRMIS is able toprovide an effective support of the landslide risk management, landslide prevention andmitigation for local authorities.
在分析国内外已有研究成果的基础上，从基本概念、目的任务、研究内容等方面分析探讨了县域滑坡灾害风险管理的基本体系，并将滑坡灾害动态风险分析和预报预警相结合，完善了县域滑坡灾害风险管理的技术流程。以宁强县滑坡灾害为例，通过进行滑坡灾害风险调查和影响因素分析，研究得出了滑坡灾害风险分析的指标，并结合定性分析与定量计算，从单体、全县区域不同空间尺度和滑坡灾害年风险分析、动态风险分析的不同时间尺度，研究构建了县域滑坡灾害风险分析的方法、流程和技术准则。通过对我国近年来地质灾害造成的人员伤亡数据分析，确定了单体地质灾害生命风险可接受水平的上限为10~(-6)/a、可容忍水平的上限为10~(-4)/a，新建工程边坡生命风险可接受水平的上限为10~(-7)/a、可容忍水平的上限为10~(-5)/a的生命风险容许标准（即生命风险定量评价标准）；结合宁强县社会经济发展实际，给出了单体滑坡灾害经济风险容许标准（即经济风险定量评价标准）的确定方法；结合滑坡危险性与危害性的定性分析，给出了单体滑坡灾害和全县区域滑坡灾害风险定性分级与评价标准，并分析探讨了县域滑坡灾害风险处置的基本方法和技术流程。
针对陕南山区县域滑坡灾害防灾减灾实际需求，在对县域滑坡灾害风险管理方法、技术标准等研究的基础上，以MapGIS6.7为GIS开发平台、 SQL Server2008为数据库管理系统、C#为开发语言，研发了县域滑坡灾害风险管理信息系统（CLRMIS）。结合宁强县滑坡灾害实际对CLRMIS系统进行了应用研究，结果表明CLRMIS系统可较为有效的服务于县域滑坡灾害风险管理与防灾减灾工作。
Landslide risk management is a research focus in the fields of hazard geology andengineering geology, and it is also an important part of the disaster prevention and mitigationstrategy system. In China, landslide risk management is still at the exploratory stage comparedwith the international popular management, including the technical processes and methods.The mountainous area in the south of Shaanxi Province is one of the severely afflicted areaswith high incidence of geological disasters in China, and the landslide casualties and propertylosses take place almost every year. In view of these reasons, a study on the landslide riskmanagement of county region has an important and practical significance to disasterprevention and mitigation of these areas.
A case study was carried out based on the landslide risk investigation in NingqiangCounty, a mountainous area of the southern Shaanxi Province. The indicators, methods,flowcharts and technical guidelines of risk analysis were studied both from the qualitativeanalysis and quantitative evaluation, and from different spatial and temporal scales as well.
The risk tolerability criteria for the loss of life was discussed and defined by usingstatistical and comparative analysis method based on the recent year’s casualties caused bylandslides in China and other twelve frequently-occurring provinces of China, that is: theupper limit of the acceptable risk is1×10~(-6)per annum and the maximum of tolerable risk is1×10~(-4)per annum for the natural landslides, and for the engineered slopes, the upper limit ofthe acceptable risk is1×10~(-7)per annum and the maximum of the tolerable risk is1×10~(-5)perannum. The methods for determine economic risk criteria of county landslide was discussedwith the socio-economic development actual of Ningqiang County. The landslide risk gradingand evaluation matrix was defined by the landslide hazard and harmfulness qualitative analysis.What’s more, the landslide risk treatment methods and flowcharts were also analyzed anddiscussed.
Finally, the County Landslide Risk Management Information System (CLRMIS) was developed and achieved on the basis of theoretical research. The system was applied andtested by landslide data in Ningqiang County, and the results show that the CLRMIS is able toprovide an effective support of the landslide risk management, landslide prevention andmitigation for local authorities.
引文
①陕西省国土资源厅编.陕西省地质灾害图册（商洛市分册、安康市分册、汉中市分册），2003.
①陕西省地矿局九〇八水文地质工程地质大队.汶川地震陕西受灾地区宁强县地质灾害详细调查报告.2009.12.
②陕西省地质环境监测总站.陕西省宁强县地质灾害调查与区划报告.2007.
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