城市轨道交通客流预测与分析方法
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摘要
城市轨道交通项目的规划与设计中很多重要问题的判断与决策都需要通过客流预测提供数据支持。但是就目前客流预测结果来看，城市轨道交通客流的预测结果与实际客流之间存在较大差异，有的甚至相差数倍，不同研究机构对同一条轨道交通线路的客流预测结果之间也存在较大差异。针对这一现象，除了对轨道交通客流预测方法加以改进完善，努力提高预测精度外，还应进一步加强对客流预测结果的评估分析与决策判断，从而增强轨道交通系统的科学决策，提高轨道交通系统的抗风险能力。
论文首先通过对国内外一些典型案例的分析，总结了轨道交通客流的成长规律；分析了世界上轨道交通发展较成熟的城市其全网客流规模分布规律，并以国内上海、广州为例分析全网客流的成长过程；通过对国内既有线路的客流统计，分析了轨道交通客流的时空分布特征以及平均运距、换乘客流特征。此项工作，为客流预测以及客流预测结果分析判断，提供了良好的依据。
论文针对国内城市规划对人口与就业空间分布方面的缺失，提出了基于城市规划的人口与就业岗位空间分布预测法，并针对轨道交通对人口、就业空间分布影响作用机理，通过引入城市人口分布引力势能场概念，建立了轨道交通影响下的人口、就业重分布模型。
论文建立了面向“区域+市区”的多层次多模式客流预测方法，提出了模型结构体系，并就其中的两个关键技术进行了研究。就“区域+市区”的OD矩阵合成技术，提出了权重分配法、类重力模型法和目的地选择模型法；在超级网络的基础上，以超级路径广义成本的决策依据，建立了多方式多路径下的方式划分和分配组合模型。
针对目前城市轨道交通客流预测的可信度较低的状况，提出了应加强对客流预测的评估分析的建议，并建立了轨道交通客流预测结果分析的技术流程。
本文以面向我国城市轨道交通客流预测与分析的研究为突破点，强调理论分析与实践应用的有机结合，在理论方法构建及可操作性措施建议提出方面有所突破和创新：①引入城市人口分布引力势能场概念，建立了轨道交通影响下的人口、就业重分布模型；②建立了面向“区域+市区”的多层次多模式客流预测方法；③建立了轨道交通客流预测结果分析技术。鉴于本文研究的不完善之处，完善理论模型与方法、建立居住-就业空间关系预测模型、轨道交通客流预测结果的合理使用等均为后续研究的主攻方向和工作重点。
Judgment and decision-making of many important issues in the planning anddesign of rail transit projects need the passenger flow forecasting to provide datasupport. However, for the present results of passenger flow forecasting, there is a bigdifference between the results of passenger flow forecasting and the actual passengerflow of urban rail transit, some results are several times different and the passengerflow forecasting results of different research institutions about the same rail transitline are also much different. In response to this phenomenon, in addition to improvingthe forecasting methods and precision, strengthening the evaluation, judgment anddecision-making of the passenger flow forecasting results should be done, therebyenhancing the scientific decision-making and improving the ability to resist risks.
Firstly, through the analysis of some domestic typical cases, this papersummaries the law of rail transit passenger flow growth, including the passengergrowth trend of the single rail line; analyzes the network-wide passenger flowdistribution law in the cities which have the world’s more mature rail transit, and takesShanghai and Guangzhou as examples to analyze the growth of the network passengerflow; analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, the averagedistance and passenger transformation characteristics of the rail transit passenger flow.This, for the passenger flow forecasting and the analysis of that, provides a goodbasis.
In response to the absence of the domestic urban planning to the distribution ofpopulation and employment, this paper proposes the forecasting method of populationand employment distribution based on urban planning, and for the mechanism of theimpact of the rail transit to population and employment distribution, there-distribution model of population and employment under the rail transit influence isestablished, through introducing the concept of gravity potency field of urbanpopulation.
This paper establishes the multi-level and multi-mode passenger flowforecasting method which orients “region and urban area”, proposes model structure system in which two key technology are studied, and for the OD matrix synthesistechnology of “region and urban area”, proposes the weight distribution method, thesimilar gravity model method and the destination choice model method; in thesuper-network, based on the decision-making of super path generalized cost,establishes the combination model of the multi-mode and multi-path split anddistribution.
In response to the present situation of low credibility of urban rail transitpassenger flow forecasting, this paper proposes the suggestion that the evaluation ofthe passenger flow forecasting should be strengthened, and establishes the technicalprocess about the result analysis of rail transit passenger flow forecasting.
This paper takes the study of China’s urban rail transit passenger forecastingand analysis as the breakthrough point, emphasizes the organic combination oftheoretical analysis and practical application, and has some breakthrough and creationin the building of theoretical approach and the suggestion of operability of measures:a) introducing the concept of gravity potency field of urban population, establishingthe re-distribution model of population and employment under the rail transitinfluence; b) establishing the multi-level and multi-mode passenger flow forecastingmethod which orients “region and urban area”; c) establishing the technical processabout the result analysis of rail transit passenger flow forecasting. In view of theweakness of this paper, improving the theoretical models and methods, theestablishment of living-employment relationship forecasting model and the reasonableuse of the rail transit passenger flow forecasting results are all the main direction andfocus of future research.
论文首先通过对国内外一些典型案例的分析，总结了轨道交通客流的成长规律；分析了世界上轨道交通发展较成熟的城市其全网客流规模分布规律，并以国内上海、广州为例分析全网客流的成长过程；通过对国内既有线路的客流统计，分析了轨道交通客流的时空分布特征以及平均运距、换乘客流特征。此项工作，为客流预测以及客流预测结果分析判断，提供了良好的依据。
论文针对国内城市规划对人口与就业空间分布方面的缺失，提出了基于城市规划的人口与就业岗位空间分布预测法，并针对轨道交通对人口、就业空间分布影响作用机理，通过引入城市人口分布引力势能场概念，建立了轨道交通影响下的人口、就业重分布模型。
论文建立了面向“区域+市区”的多层次多模式客流预测方法，提出了模型结构体系，并就其中的两个关键技术进行了研究。就“区域+市区”的OD矩阵合成技术，提出了权重分配法、类重力模型法和目的地选择模型法；在超级网络的基础上，以超级路径广义成本的决策依据，建立了多方式多路径下的方式划分和分配组合模型。
针对目前城市轨道交通客流预测的可信度较低的状况，提出了应加强对客流预测的评估分析的建议，并建立了轨道交通客流预测结果分析的技术流程。
本文以面向我国城市轨道交通客流预测与分析的研究为突破点，强调理论分析与实践应用的有机结合，在理论方法构建及可操作性措施建议提出方面有所突破和创新：①引入城市人口分布引力势能场概念，建立了轨道交通影响下的人口、就业重分布模型；②建立了面向“区域+市区”的多层次多模式客流预测方法；③建立了轨道交通客流预测结果分析技术。鉴于本文研究的不完善之处，完善理论模型与方法、建立居住-就业空间关系预测模型、轨道交通客流预测结果的合理使用等均为后续研究的主攻方向和工作重点。
Judgment and decision-making of many important issues in the planning anddesign of rail transit projects need the passenger flow forecasting to provide datasupport. However, for the present results of passenger flow forecasting, there is a bigdifference between the results of passenger flow forecasting and the actual passengerflow of urban rail transit, some results are several times different and the passengerflow forecasting results of different research institutions about the same rail transitline are also much different. In response to this phenomenon, in addition to improvingthe forecasting methods and precision, strengthening the evaluation, judgment anddecision-making of the passenger flow forecasting results should be done, therebyenhancing the scientific decision-making and improving the ability to resist risks.
Firstly, through the analysis of some domestic typical cases, this papersummaries the law of rail transit passenger flow growth, including the passengergrowth trend of the single rail line; analyzes the network-wide passenger flowdistribution law in the cities which have the world’s more mature rail transit, and takesShanghai and Guangzhou as examples to analyze the growth of the network passengerflow; analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics, the averagedistance and passenger transformation characteristics of the rail transit passenger flow.This, for the passenger flow forecasting and the analysis of that, provides a goodbasis.
In response to the absence of the domestic urban planning to the distribution ofpopulation and employment, this paper proposes the forecasting method of populationand employment distribution based on urban planning, and for the mechanism of theimpact of the rail transit to population and employment distribution, there-distribution model of population and employment under the rail transit influence isestablished, through introducing the concept of gravity potency field of urbanpopulation.
This paper establishes the multi-level and multi-mode passenger flowforecasting method which orients “region and urban area”, proposes model structure system in which two key technology are studied, and for the OD matrix synthesistechnology of “region and urban area”, proposes the weight distribution method, thesimilar gravity model method and the destination choice model method; in thesuper-network, based on the decision-making of super path generalized cost,establishes the combination model of the multi-mode and multi-path split anddistribution.
In response to the present situation of low credibility of urban rail transitpassenger flow forecasting, this paper proposes the suggestion that the evaluation ofthe passenger flow forecasting should be strengthened, and establishes the technicalprocess about the result analysis of rail transit passenger flow forecasting.
This paper takes the study of China’s urban rail transit passenger forecastingand analysis as the breakthrough point, emphasizes the organic combination oftheoretical analysis and practical application, and has some breakthrough and creationin the building of theoretical approach and the suggestion of operability of measures:a) introducing the concept of gravity potency field of urban population, establishingthe re-distribution model of population and employment under the rail transitinfluence; b) establishing the multi-level and multi-mode passenger flow forecastingmethod which orients “region and urban area”; c) establishing the technical processabout the result analysis of rail transit passenger flow forecasting. In view of theweakness of this paper, improving the theoretical models and methods, theestablishment of living-employment relationship forecasting model and the reasonableuse of the rail transit passenger flow forecasting results are all the main direction andfocus of future research.
引文
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