陕西苹果生产与出口贸易研究
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摘要
苹果产业是陕西的支柱产业和优势产业，浓缩苹果汁是我国为数不多的具有国际竞争力的农产品之一，苹果产业发展对优化与调整陕西区域产业结构、促进地区特色产业发展、增加农民就业、实现地方农民增收具有重要意义。中国苹果产业已进入由传统产业向现代产业、由世界苹果生产大国向苹果产业强国转变的重大历史阶段，陕西作为中国苹果产销第一大省，如何率先实现从传统果业向现代果业转型发展，是当前陕西苹果产业发展的重要任务。在全球贸易的背景下，以提升陕西苹果产业国内外市场竞争力和产业效益为核心，梳理产业发展的优势与特色、存在的问题与发展瓶颈，在测度与分析陕西苹果产业竞争力与发展潜力的基础上，探讨延伸苹果产业链的发展路径，无疑是个重要的研究选题。既可以为陕西果业管理部门制定合理的产业政策提供科学依据，也有助于指导陕西苹果产业更好地面向世界市场，促进陕西苹果产业转型升级与可持续发展；同时，揭示中国探索发展外向型农业产业的思路，为拓展我国外向型农业发展的理论研究作出贡献。
因此，本文在全球贸易的背景下，总结与分析陕西苹果产业发展现状，采用综合比较优势指数法（AAI）和出口产品质量升级指数等方法，分析和评估陕西苹果生产与出口贸易的比较优势，采用贸易引力模型测度苹果汁的出口市场潜力，利用多元回归模型探索相关因素对陕西苹果生产与贸易的影响程度，最后提出提升陕西苹果产业竞争力和促进陕西现代苹果产业发展的对策建议。
本文研究的主要内容及其结论如下：
（1）世界苹果种植面积、产量和贸易量持续增长，生产效率及效益得到较大提高。中国的苹果及苹果汁产销世界第一，产量和出口量所占世界的比重基本上呈现逐年上升的趋势，但中国在国际市场上的市场势力有限。国际市场的波动，会对国内苹果产业发展产生重大影响。
（2）陕西是世界苹果最佳优生产区和世界最大的浓缩苹果汁生产和加工基地，苹果产量和出口量在国内都名列第一，且在全国的占比连年攀升。凭借廉价劳动力和完善的从研发到生产的产业链，陕西苹果种植面积和产量都呈现出快速增长势头，但是出口地区较集中是其最大的发展障碍。
（3）陕西苹果生产及苹果汁出口贸易，无论是单产、规模、效益以及国内资源成本方面都具有非常显著的区域比较优势。EAI指数与山东相比，还有一定的差距，意味着陕西苹果生产技术有待进一步提高，促进其效率比较优势的提升。从陕西苹果汁的显示性比较优势指数来看，与世界主要苹果汁出口国相比，有较强的出口竞争优势，但与波兰、阿根廷、奥地利等国相比，苹果汁的竞争力还有差距，有待进一步提高。
（4）苹果生产方面：分析陕西28个苹果基地县的资源禀赋系数可知，陕西苹果资源分布呈现出“两头大，中间小”的哑铃型结构，产业发展空间仍较大；影响陕西苹果生产的主要生产要素为水资源和技术投入，农药和化肥等传统生产要素对产量的贡献非常小，产业组织化程度对苹果生产具有显著影响；果农的文化水平，苹果的商品化程度，以及本村有无合作社对苹果产业组织化有显著影响。
（5）苹果出口贸易方面：美国、欧盟、俄罗斯和日本等是陕西苹果出口的主要市场，这些进口国通过关税壁垒和非关税壁垒，特别是技术壁垒逐步提高中国苹果出口贸易的门槛。根据主要出口市场的需求与消费特征，以及贸易引力模型分析可知，陕西苹果汁贸易主要伙伴国可以分为贸易潜力成熟型、贸易潜力成长型和贸易潜力巨大型三种类型，制定差异化的出口贸易策略有利于扩大苹果出口。
（6）苹果生产及其主要加工和出口产品浓缩苹果汁的发展对于陕西苹果产业链条建设和产业化发展具有举足轻重的作用，业界应加强技术创新和应用，提高苹果产量和质量；加强基础设施建设，优化区域布局和品种结构；提升产业组织化建设，提高果农应对市场的能力；突破技术壁垒，建立规范的竞争秩序，以提升陕西苹果产业竞争力与可持续发展能力。
Apple industry is the pillar and competitive industry in Shaanxi. Apple juice is one of thefew agricultural products with international competitiveness in Shaanxi Province and China.The development of apple industry is important to adjust and optimize regional industrialstructure, promote the development of regional distinctive industry, and increase farmers'earnings and job opportunity in Shaanxi province. China’s apple industry has entered animportant historical period that transferring from traditional industry to modern industry, andfrom global apple production big country to powerful country. As the biggest apple producingprovince in China, Shaanxi should consider how to take the lead in realizing thetransformation from traditional mode to modern mode seriously, and the this as the mostimportant task for the development of Shaanxi apple industry. Therefore, searching about asuccessful path to enhance the market competitiveness and profitability of Shaanxi appleindustry, finding its comparative advantage and characteristics, problems as well asbottlenecks in the context of global trade, and discussing how to expand the apple industrialchain after measuring and analyzing the competitiveness and potential of this industry, areundoubtedly a research topic with great meaning. This study provides scientific support forShaanxi fruit industry management authority to make reasonable policies, and can provideguidance for Shaanxi apple industry to face to global market better. It is also helpful inpromoting the upgrade and sustainable development of this industry, and makes it owncontribution to the theory of exploring a path to developing foreign-oriented agriculture inChina.
Therefore, This study analyzes and concludes the developing status of Shaanxi appleindustry at the background of global trade. In concrete, the author uses the methods ofintegrated comparative advantage index and exporting product quality upgrading index toanalyze and estimate the producing and exporting comparative advantage of Shaanxi apples.In the next, we also use the trading gravitation model to measure the exporting potential ofShaanxi apple juice, and try to find the factors influencing the production and trade ofShaanxi apples through multiple regressions. Finally, the author proposed the suggestions toenhance the competitiveness of apple industry and to promote the industrial development of modern apple industry in Shaanxi.
The main contents and conclusions of this study are as follows:
(1) The planting acreage, output and trade quantity of the apples on the world keepsincreasing. The producing efficiency and revenue improves also. At present, China hasbecome the biggest apple producing and trading country. Its proportion of producing andtrading quantity to the world almost climbs yearly, while its pricing right on the global marketis limited. The fluctuation of global market will bring great influence to the development ofChina apple industry. Therefore, improving the competition strength and pricing right ofChina apple industry on the global market, should be an important task of this industrycurrently.
(2) Shaanxi province is the best apple producing district and the largest concentratedapple juice producing and processing base on the world. Its producing and exporting quantityare both number one domestically, and its ratio also climbs year after year. Depending on thecheap labor and perfect industry chain from R&D to production, the planting acreage andoutput of Shaanxi apples climbs quickly, but it faces a high barrier that its exporting countriesare too concentrated.
(3) Shaanxi apple production and apple juice export has shown its comparative advantageamong all the provinces domestically obviously, no matter from the angle of single production,scale, revenue, or inner resource cost. While its EAI index is lower than Shandong, means theproducing technology in Shaanxi still needs to be improved, so as to promote its comparativeadvantage in efficiency continuously. Judging from the displaying comparative advantageindex, Shaanxi owns better export competition advantage when compares to the main applejuice export countries, while its power is still weaker than Poland, Argentina, Austria and soon, needs to be improved more.
(4) Through analysis to the resource endowment index of28apple planting base countiesin Shaanxi province, Shaanxi apple resource distribution shows a dumbbell-type construction.The developing space of this industry still exists. The main factors influencing Shaanxi appleproduction are water and technology, but not those traditional factors such as pesticide orfertilizer. Besides, the degree of industry systematization influence apple production to largeextent, which is decided by the educational background of the farmers, merchandise level ofthe apples, as well as whether there are apple producing corporations in the village.
(5) The main export market of Shaanxi apples are USA, EU, Russia and Japan. Thesecountries heighten the barrier to Chinese apples step by step though both tariff wall andnon-tariff wall, especially technology wall. According to the demand and consumptioncharacteristics of these markets, we divide them into three types: trading potential mature, trading potential growing and trading potential huge. Taking different export strategiesaccording to their types is help to enlarge apples’ export.
(6) The development of apple industry and its main processing and exportingproduct-concentrated apple juice, is important to Shaanxi village economy. People should paymore attention to the relative technological innovation to improve production and quality;strengthen the construction of infrastructure and optimize local distribution and varietystructure; build modern industry organization so as to improve the farmers ability to front thefluctuation of the market; break through foreign technological wall and build canonicalcompetitive order, try to improve the competitive power and sustainable development abilityof Shaanxi apple industry ever more.
因此，本文在全球贸易的背景下，总结与分析陕西苹果产业发展现状，采用综合比较优势指数法（AAI）和出口产品质量升级指数等方法，分析和评估陕西苹果生产与出口贸易的比较优势，采用贸易引力模型测度苹果汁的出口市场潜力，利用多元回归模型探索相关因素对陕西苹果生产与贸易的影响程度，最后提出提升陕西苹果产业竞争力和促进陕西现代苹果产业发展的对策建议。
本文研究的主要内容及其结论如下：
（1）世界苹果种植面积、产量和贸易量持续增长，生产效率及效益得到较大提高。中国的苹果及苹果汁产销世界第一，产量和出口量所占世界的比重基本上呈现逐年上升的趋势，但中国在国际市场上的市场势力有限。国际市场的波动，会对国内苹果产业发展产生重大影响。
（2）陕西是世界苹果最佳优生产区和世界最大的浓缩苹果汁生产和加工基地，苹果产量和出口量在国内都名列第一，且在全国的占比连年攀升。凭借廉价劳动力和完善的从研发到生产的产业链，陕西苹果种植面积和产量都呈现出快速增长势头，但是出口地区较集中是其最大的发展障碍。
（3）陕西苹果生产及苹果汁出口贸易，无论是单产、规模、效益以及国内资源成本方面都具有非常显著的区域比较优势。EAI指数与山东相比，还有一定的差距，意味着陕西苹果生产技术有待进一步提高，促进其效率比较优势的提升。从陕西苹果汁的显示性比较优势指数来看，与世界主要苹果汁出口国相比，有较强的出口竞争优势，但与波兰、阿根廷、奥地利等国相比，苹果汁的竞争力还有差距，有待进一步提高。
（4）苹果生产方面：分析陕西28个苹果基地县的资源禀赋系数可知，陕西苹果资源分布呈现出“两头大，中间小”的哑铃型结构，产业发展空间仍较大；影响陕西苹果生产的主要生产要素为水资源和技术投入，农药和化肥等传统生产要素对产量的贡献非常小，产业组织化程度对苹果生产具有显著影响；果农的文化水平，苹果的商品化程度，以及本村有无合作社对苹果产业组织化有显著影响。
（5）苹果出口贸易方面：美国、欧盟、俄罗斯和日本等是陕西苹果出口的主要市场，这些进口国通过关税壁垒和非关税壁垒，特别是技术壁垒逐步提高中国苹果出口贸易的门槛。根据主要出口市场的需求与消费特征，以及贸易引力模型分析可知，陕西苹果汁贸易主要伙伴国可以分为贸易潜力成熟型、贸易潜力成长型和贸易潜力巨大型三种类型，制定差异化的出口贸易策略有利于扩大苹果出口。
（6）苹果生产及其主要加工和出口产品浓缩苹果汁的发展对于陕西苹果产业链条建设和产业化发展具有举足轻重的作用，业界应加强技术创新和应用，提高苹果产量和质量；加强基础设施建设，优化区域布局和品种结构；提升产业组织化建设，提高果农应对市场的能力；突破技术壁垒，建立规范的竞争秩序，以提升陕西苹果产业竞争力与可持续发展能力。
Apple industry is the pillar and competitive industry in Shaanxi. Apple juice is one of thefew agricultural products with international competitiveness in Shaanxi Province and China.The development of apple industry is important to adjust and optimize regional industrialstructure, promote the development of regional distinctive industry, and increase farmers'earnings and job opportunity in Shaanxi province. China’s apple industry has entered animportant historical period that transferring from traditional industry to modern industry, andfrom global apple production big country to powerful country. As the biggest apple producingprovince in China, Shaanxi should consider how to take the lead in realizing thetransformation from traditional mode to modern mode seriously, and the this as the mostimportant task for the development of Shaanxi apple industry. Therefore, searching about asuccessful path to enhance the market competitiveness and profitability of Shaanxi appleindustry, finding its comparative advantage and characteristics, problems as well asbottlenecks in the context of global trade, and discussing how to expand the apple industrialchain after measuring and analyzing the competitiveness and potential of this industry, areundoubtedly a research topic with great meaning. This study provides scientific support forShaanxi fruit industry management authority to make reasonable policies, and can provideguidance for Shaanxi apple industry to face to global market better. It is also helpful inpromoting the upgrade and sustainable development of this industry, and makes it owncontribution to the theory of exploring a path to developing foreign-oriented agriculture inChina.
Therefore, This study analyzes and concludes the developing status of Shaanxi appleindustry at the background of global trade. In concrete, the author uses the methods ofintegrated comparative advantage index and exporting product quality upgrading index toanalyze and estimate the producing and exporting comparative advantage of Shaanxi apples.In the next, we also use the trading gravitation model to measure the exporting potential ofShaanxi apple juice, and try to find the factors influencing the production and trade ofShaanxi apples through multiple regressions. Finally, the author proposed the suggestions toenhance the competitiveness of apple industry and to promote the industrial development of modern apple industry in Shaanxi.
The main contents and conclusions of this study are as follows:
(1) The planting acreage, output and trade quantity of the apples on the world keepsincreasing. The producing efficiency and revenue improves also. At present, China hasbecome the biggest apple producing and trading country. Its proportion of producing andtrading quantity to the world almost climbs yearly, while its pricing right on the global marketis limited. The fluctuation of global market will bring great influence to the development ofChina apple industry. Therefore, improving the competition strength and pricing right ofChina apple industry on the global market, should be an important task of this industrycurrently.
(2) Shaanxi province is the best apple producing district and the largest concentratedapple juice producing and processing base on the world. Its producing and exporting quantityare both number one domestically, and its ratio also climbs year after year. Depending on thecheap labor and perfect industry chain from R&D to production, the planting acreage andoutput of Shaanxi apples climbs quickly, but it faces a high barrier that its exporting countriesare too concentrated.
(3) Shaanxi apple production and apple juice export has shown its comparative advantageamong all the provinces domestically obviously, no matter from the angle of single production,scale, revenue, or inner resource cost. While its EAI index is lower than Shandong, means theproducing technology in Shaanxi still needs to be improved, so as to promote its comparativeadvantage in efficiency continuously. Judging from the displaying comparative advantageindex, Shaanxi owns better export competition advantage when compares to the main applejuice export countries, while its power is still weaker than Poland, Argentina, Austria and soon, needs to be improved more.
(4) Through analysis to the resource endowment index of28apple planting base countiesin Shaanxi province, Shaanxi apple resource distribution shows a dumbbell-type construction.The developing space of this industry still exists. The main factors influencing Shaanxi appleproduction are water and technology, but not those traditional factors such as pesticide orfertilizer. Besides, the degree of industry systematization influence apple production to largeextent, which is decided by the educational background of the farmers, merchandise level ofthe apples, as well as whether there are apple producing corporations in the village.
(5) The main export market of Shaanxi apples are USA, EU, Russia and Japan. Thesecountries heighten the barrier to Chinese apples step by step though both tariff wall andnon-tariff wall, especially technology wall. According to the demand and consumptioncharacteristics of these markets, we divide them into three types: trading potential mature, trading potential growing and trading potential huge. Taking different export strategiesaccording to their types is help to enlarge apples’ export.
(6) The development of apple industry and its main processing and exportingproduct-concentrated apple juice, is important to Shaanxi village economy. People should paymore attention to the relative technological innovation to improve production and quality;strengthen the construction of infrastructure and optimize local distribution and varietystructure; build modern industry organization so as to improve the farmers ability to front thefluctuation of the market; break through foreign technological wall and build canonicalcompetitive order, try to improve the competitive power and sustainable development abilityof Shaanxi apple industry ever more.
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