化工园区脆弱性综合评估方法研究
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摘要
化工园区中生产、储存、使用、运输着大量易燃、易爆、有毒有害的危险化学品，一旦发生火灾、爆炸或危险化学品泄漏事故，事故后果严重，影响范围大，而导致事故严重后果主要原因之一是土地利用规划缺乏科学的风险评估技术的指导。目前，区域风险评估技术主要是从致灾因子的角度对重大危险源进行辨识分析，管理监控，以及区域风险定量分析，从承灾体的角度对区域脆弱性进行研究尚不多见。本研究针对化工事故，提出了化工园区脆弱性综合评估技术，不仅是对区域风险评价技术重要补充，同时也为防灾、减灾、应急救援以及区域规划方案的优选和改进提供了理论依据和指导方向。
以化工园区为研究对象，通过对国内外相关学科研究成果类比分析，重点对化工园区脆弱性概念、评估方法、评估模型及应用等方面进行研究分析，完成的主要工作包括：
通过对脆弱性分析相关理论的深入研究，结合化工园区的特点、承灾体系构成以及主要事故类型的能量释放形式和伤害范围等内容，基于能量意外释放理论，针对化工事故提出化工园区脆弱性、人员（设施、环境）脆弱性、人员（设施、环境）易损性三个概念，并对三个概念的内涵与联系作出明确的界定。
从人员、设施、环境暴露性和易损性的角度，构建了化工园区脆弱性评估指标体系，明确了各指标的含义，提出了指标的具体量化方法，并采用层次分析法确定了指标的权重。
在对评估方法比较分析的基础上，采用模糊综合与主成分相结合的方法对化工园区脆弱性进行评估。分别通过模糊综合法和主成分分析法对钦州化工园区进行脆弱性评估，两种评估结果通过了Spearman系数一致性检验。对评价结果进行赋权组合，将通过Kendall检验的组合结果作为最终评价结果。采用组合评估方法对化工园区脆弱性进行评估可以有效利用更多的信息，提高综合评估结果的科学性和准确性。
通过对化工园区脆弱性评估目的和指标数据特点的分析，采用支持向量机构建了区域脆弱性评估模型。以钦州化工园区为评估样本区域，各指标采集数据作为输入数据，组合评估结果作为输出数据，进行支持向量机的训练和检测。通过对核函数以及参数的对比分析和试算，当核函数选取Polynomial，参数degree=2时，支持向量机的预测准确率达到96.00%，认为该模型的泛化能力较强，具有较好的应用价值。
以小虎化工区作为案例研究对象，通过输入各区域指标数据，在MATLAB7.0下运行基于SVM的化工园区脆弱性评估模型，实现对小虎化工区的脆弱性评估。依据各区域脆弱性等级及分布图，针对脆弱性等级高的区域提出了规划建议。该方法不仅是脆弱性评估模型构建方法的探索，而且为以后与GIS结合实现化工园区脆弱性动态评估奠定了理论基础。
There are a lot of flammable, explosive and hazard chemicals in chemicalindustry park. Once fire, exploration or leaking of chemicals occurred, they willresult in serious accidents. One of the major reasons responsible for thoseconsequences is the lack the scientific risk assessment. Currently, the regional riskassessment technique is focused on quantitatively analyze hazard sources from theaspect of causing-hazard factor while few from the aspect of sustaining-hazard body.In this thesis, we innovatively advanced a comprehensive vulnerability assessmenttechnique for chemical industry park. This contribution not only provides animportant supplement for the existing regional risk assessment techniques, but alsooffers theoretical evidence and direction for the disaster prevention and emergencyrelief, as well as improvement of regional planning program.
In this thesis, chemical industry park was chosen as a subject of study. Bycomparing with the reported results in the related field, the concept, assessmentmethodologies, assessment models, and technical application of chemical industrypark vulnerability have been comprehensively considered. The major work involvedinto the current thesis was summarized as follows:
We firstly systematically analyzed the concepts, elements and classic model ofvulnerability. Based on analysis of the characteristics of chemical industry park andenergy release forms and damage scope of chemical accidents, we suggestedvulnerability and the related concepts of chemical industry park specifically targetedto the accident on the basis of energy release theory. three concepts. The threeconcepts of vulnerability of the chemical industry park, personnel (facilities,environmental) vulnerability, personnel (facilities, environmental) fragility and therelation between them were clearly defined.
Based on the chemical industry park vulnerability concept, we further discusseda series of factors affecting fragility and exposure of human, facilities andenvironment through comparative analysis of the reported data and accident cases. According to these corresponding analysis results, index systems for chemicalindustry park vulnerability were constructed. Their meanings and quantities of theindexes were discussed in detail. The weight of the index was further determined byAnalytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
From the comprehensive analysis of assessment methods, a novel chemicalindustry park vulnerability assessment method was proposed by means of acombination of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and a principal componentanalysis. As a typical example, a chemical industry park in Qinzhou was evaluatedrespectively. The consistency of results obtained by different methods were checkedwith Spearman rule and further combined in a certain rational manner. Afterconsistency check via Kendall rule with the former results, the combined result wasregarded as the chemical industry park vulnerability assessment results. Morescientific and accurate assessment results could be provided by combination ofassessment methods through more information was used effectively.
Considering the vulnerability data characteristics of chemical industry park, wechoose support vector machine (SVM) to construct assessment model for regionalvulnerability. Vulnerability assessment model of chemical industry park wasconstructed with index data collected from Qinzhou chemical industry park as inputdata and combined assessment results as output data. Prediction accuracy rate of thismodel reached96.00%with polynomial Kernel function and degree as2. Thevulnerability assessment model could be used widely since the strong generalizationability.
The vulnerability assessment model was applied through Matlab7.0to XiaohuChemical Industry Park. The vulnerability assessment results and the distributionmap of vulnerability were directly generated by this model based on collected indexdata in the chemical industry park. The vulnerability assessment model based onSVM could provide proposal for land use planning and ready to combine with GISfor dynamic vulnerability assessment of the chemical park.
以化工园区为研究对象，通过对国内外相关学科研究成果类比分析，重点对化工园区脆弱性概念、评估方法、评估模型及应用等方面进行研究分析，完成的主要工作包括：
通过对脆弱性分析相关理论的深入研究，结合化工园区的特点、承灾体系构成以及主要事故类型的能量释放形式和伤害范围等内容，基于能量意外释放理论，针对化工事故提出化工园区脆弱性、人员（设施、环境）脆弱性、人员（设施、环境）易损性三个概念，并对三个概念的内涵与联系作出明确的界定。
从人员、设施、环境暴露性和易损性的角度，构建了化工园区脆弱性评估指标体系，明确了各指标的含义，提出了指标的具体量化方法，并采用层次分析法确定了指标的权重。
在对评估方法比较分析的基础上，采用模糊综合与主成分相结合的方法对化工园区脆弱性进行评估。分别通过模糊综合法和主成分分析法对钦州化工园区进行脆弱性评估，两种评估结果通过了Spearman系数一致性检验。对评价结果进行赋权组合，将通过Kendall检验的组合结果作为最终评价结果。采用组合评估方法对化工园区脆弱性进行评估可以有效利用更多的信息，提高综合评估结果的科学性和准确性。
通过对化工园区脆弱性评估目的和指标数据特点的分析，采用支持向量机构建了区域脆弱性评估模型。以钦州化工园区为评估样本区域，各指标采集数据作为输入数据，组合评估结果作为输出数据，进行支持向量机的训练和检测。通过对核函数以及参数的对比分析和试算，当核函数选取Polynomial，参数degree=2时，支持向量机的预测准确率达到96.00%，认为该模型的泛化能力较强，具有较好的应用价值。
以小虎化工区作为案例研究对象，通过输入各区域指标数据，在MATLAB7.0下运行基于SVM的化工园区脆弱性评估模型，实现对小虎化工区的脆弱性评估。依据各区域脆弱性等级及分布图，针对脆弱性等级高的区域提出了规划建议。该方法不仅是脆弱性评估模型构建方法的探索，而且为以后与GIS结合实现化工园区脆弱性动态评估奠定了理论基础。
There are a lot of flammable, explosive and hazard chemicals in chemicalindustry park. Once fire, exploration or leaking of chemicals occurred, they willresult in serious accidents. One of the major reasons responsible for thoseconsequences is the lack the scientific risk assessment. Currently, the regional riskassessment technique is focused on quantitatively analyze hazard sources from theaspect of causing-hazard factor while few from the aspect of sustaining-hazard body.In this thesis, we innovatively advanced a comprehensive vulnerability assessmenttechnique for chemical industry park. This contribution not only provides animportant supplement for the existing regional risk assessment techniques, but alsooffers theoretical evidence and direction for the disaster prevention and emergencyrelief, as well as improvement of regional planning program.
In this thesis, chemical industry park was chosen as a subject of study. Bycomparing with the reported results in the related field, the concept, assessmentmethodologies, assessment models, and technical application of chemical industrypark vulnerability have been comprehensively considered. The major work involvedinto the current thesis was summarized as follows:
We firstly systematically analyzed the concepts, elements and classic model ofvulnerability. Based on analysis of the characteristics of chemical industry park andenergy release forms and damage scope of chemical accidents, we suggestedvulnerability and the related concepts of chemical industry park specifically targetedto the accident on the basis of energy release theory. three concepts. The threeconcepts of vulnerability of the chemical industry park, personnel (facilities,environmental) vulnerability, personnel (facilities, environmental) fragility and therelation between them were clearly defined.
Based on the chemical industry park vulnerability concept, we further discusseda series of factors affecting fragility and exposure of human, facilities andenvironment through comparative analysis of the reported data and accident cases. According to these corresponding analysis results, index systems for chemicalindustry park vulnerability were constructed. Their meanings and quantities of theindexes were discussed in detail. The weight of the index was further determined byAnalytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
From the comprehensive analysis of assessment methods, a novel chemicalindustry park vulnerability assessment method was proposed by means of acombination of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and a principal componentanalysis. As a typical example, a chemical industry park in Qinzhou was evaluatedrespectively. The consistency of results obtained by different methods were checkedwith Spearman rule and further combined in a certain rational manner. Afterconsistency check via Kendall rule with the former results, the combined result wasregarded as the chemical industry park vulnerability assessment results. Morescientific and accurate assessment results could be provided by combination ofassessment methods through more information was used effectively.
Considering the vulnerability data characteristics of chemical industry park, wechoose support vector machine (SVM) to construct assessment model for regionalvulnerability. Vulnerability assessment model of chemical industry park wasconstructed with index data collected from Qinzhou chemical industry park as inputdata and combined assessment results as output data. Prediction accuracy rate of thismodel reached96.00%with polynomial Kernel function and degree as2. Thevulnerability assessment model could be used widely since the strong generalizationability.
The vulnerability assessment model was applied through Matlab7.0to XiaohuChemical Industry Park. The vulnerability assessment results and the distributionmap of vulnerability were directly generated by this model based on collected indexdata in the chemical industry park. The vulnerability assessment model based onSVM could provide proposal for land use planning and ready to combine with GISfor dynamic vulnerability assessment of the chemical park.
引文
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