信号分析在国家安全战略风险识别中的应用
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摘要
在国际经济、政治、文化日益全球化的今天,各种战略风险之间、国内风险与国际风险之间有着日益紧密的联系,存在相互转化的可能。一国、尤其是重要国家的国内风险往往会产生广泛的国际影响甚至引发国际风险,而国际风险、特别是严重的国际风险无疑会影响一国的国内安全甚至引发国内危机。为了规避风险,首先需要对其进行扫描、监测、识别、解读与评价。将信号分析理论与方法融合到风险识别过程中,从情报学的角度分析风险,应用信号分析的理论与方法技术,结合风险预警理论,构建战略风险识别指标体系,对行为主体所处的竞争环境,竞争对手,以及自身的资源、能力实施监测、识别,为开展风险预警评价,进行事前预警,以规避危机与风险,提升国家的核心竞争力。因此,本文的主要研究结论如下：
(1)对情报学领域中的信号、信号分析概念进行了详细阐述,阐明了信号与信息、情报之间的关系；厘清了战略风险、国家安全战略风险的概念；论述了用于战略风险识别的信号分析所涉及的基础理论——竞争反应预测与生态理性决策理论,阐明了信号传递、信号捕获与分析对战略风险识别的影响。
(2)在风险信号识别理论基础上,针对国家安全战略风险识别问题的复杂性和不确定性,从操作层面上提出了战略风险预警模型；在对信号形成机理进行分析的基础上,结合战略风险识别流程构建了信号分析模型,并建立了战略风险识别框架。进而分析了战略风险形成过程,提出了战略风险识别的信号分析技术和方法。
(3)分析了战略风险识别框架中的基础部分——战略风险形成机理,论述了风险信号的产生机制、信号生长过程以及预警信号的指标及维度,进——步确定了战略风险识别的要素。
(4)阐述了战略风险识别框架中的核心部分——风险信号的辨识与解读。阐明了风险识别的原则与途径,构建了基于信号积累、信号整合、信号确认的风险辨识流程,以及信号扫描与监测模型,并从来源、监测与分析三个角度详细阐述了模型的流程；最后,重点论述了第六章使用到流程中的风险事件分析过程。
(5)构建了南海冲突信号扫描原型,并借助国际关系学中的事件分析、情报学领域的知识图谱、社会网络分析、片断情报分析、情报主题拼图等分析方法,以及Ucinet,SPSS等分析工具,选择《人民日报》、《人民日报海外版》、《参考消息》、《人民网》等信息源,对南海冲突中的风险信号进行了监测和解读,并通过PressDisplay数据库提供的《越南人民报》(Nhan Dan)、《菲律宾星报》(Philippine Star)、《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)等国外媒体作以辅助、验证。
本文研究的国家安全战略风险,更偏向于Intelligence Studies,尤其实证部分所涉及的南海问题研究属于保卫国家主权和领土完整、维护边疆地区稳定的国土安全情报范畴,借助以安全问题研究为主要特征的西方情报研究(Intelligence Studies)与以信息科学研究为主要特征的我国情报学(Information Science)两大领域的理论、方法和相关技术,共同服务于国家安全战略预警。国家安全战略风险的识别,需以信号分析为基础,全源跟踪、搜集片断信息,并对其进行辨识、拼图,广泛关注国际环境变动,还原出情报原型,分析国家面临的风险,才能有效地解决国家安全战略风险识别问题。本文的可能创新点包括以下方面：(1)将情报学领域的信号分析方法应用于国家安全战略风险的要素确定、风险事件分析过程中,构建了信号分析与战略风险识别的融合模型;丰富了情报研究(Intelligence Studies)在战略预警领域的应用,并将面向Information与Intelligence两种情报学研究方法有机地结合在一起,共同服务于国家安全这一国外情报学界一直主攻的战场。(2)应用风险信号识别模型分析南海冲突问题,从情报学的角度尝试如何服务于国家安全决策,为南海问题研究提供了一种新思维。
With the global development in economy, politics and culture, various strategic risks such as domestic risks and international risks, are correlated increasingly with each other, with the possibilities of inter-conversion. Domestic risks of one nation, the important ones in particular, tend to cause a wide range of international influences and even international risks which, especially the serious ones, will undoubtedly result in a nation's internal security or domestic crisis. In order to avoid serious consequences, it is necessary to scan, monitor, identify, interpret and evaluate those risks beforehand. Based on perfect combination of signal analysis and risk identification, this dissertation analyzes the strategic risks from the perspective of intelligence studies, employing relevant theories and methodologies of signal analysis. Besides, the dissertation is to build a strategic risk identification evaluation index system on the basis of risk early warning theories, and to monitor and identify the competitive environment surrounding the nation, its resources and capacity, which is helpful to avoid corresponding crisis and risks, and to enhance the core competitiveness. Therefore, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) It elaborates the concepts and of signal and signal analysis in the field of intelligence studies; illustrates the relationship among signal, information and intelligence; clarifies the concepts of strategic risks and national security strategic risk; discusses the basic theories referring to the signal analysis in strategic risk identification--about the forecast of competitive reaction and the ecological rationale; and it expounds how signal transmission, signal capture and signal analysis to affect strategic risk identification.
(2) Based on the theory of risk signal identification, it proposes strategic risk early warning model from the operating level, considering the complexity and uncertainty of the national security strategic risk identification; Based on the mechanism analyzing of signal formation, it establishes a signal analysis model and a strategic risk identification framework, combined with the process of strategic risk identification. Then, it analyzes the process of strategic risks formation and presents signal analysis techniques and methodologies of strategic risk identification.
(3) It analyzes the fundamental part of the strategic risk identification framework for-strategic risk formation mechanism; it introduces the generation and growth process of signal risk, as well as the indicators and dimension of early warning signals; and it further defines the elements of strategic risk identification.
(4) It relates to the core part in the strategic risk identification framework--the identification and interpretation of risk signal; clarifies the principles and approaches of risk identification and constructs the risk identification process based on the signal accumulation, signal integrity, signal confirmation, as well as the model of signal scanning and monitoring; and it analyzes the processes of the model from such three angles as the source, surveillance and analysis. Finally, it puts emphasis on risk event analysis process used in Chapter Six.
(5) It builds a prototype about risk signal scanning using a series of analytical methods including event analysis in International relations, knowledge map, social network analysis, fragmental intelligence analysis, and intelligence topics puzzle and so on; with the help of analysis tools such as Ucinet, SPSS, it selects information sources from People's Daily, People's Daily Overseas Edition, Nhan Dan, Philippine Star and The Wall Street Journal to monitor and interpret the possible risk signals from South China Sea conflict.
National security strategic risk illustrated in this dissertation mainly refers to Intelligence Studies particularly involved in the empirical part of the South China Sea issue which is a sub-category of homeland security intelligence. National security strategic risk identification is used to identify and analyze risk signals one country encountered which could be discussed through signal analysis theory and methodology such as all-source intelligence and fragmental intelligence analysis. The possible innovations in this dissertation include:(1) Signal analysis is applied to formulate the elements of the national security strategic risk, analyze the risk events and construct the strategic risk identification model that enriches the application of Intelligence Studies.(2) Risk signal identification model is used to analyze the conflicts in the South China Sea and to support national security decision-making from the point of Intelligence Services.
(1)对情报学领域中的信号、信号分析概念进行了详细阐述,阐明了信号与信息、情报之间的关系；厘清了战略风险、国家安全战略风险的概念；论述了用于战略风险识别的信号分析所涉及的基础理论——竞争反应预测与生态理性决策理论,阐明了信号传递、信号捕获与分析对战略风险识别的影响。
(2)在风险信号识别理论基础上,针对国家安全战略风险识别问题的复杂性和不确定性,从操作层面上提出了战略风险预警模型；在对信号形成机理进行分析的基础上,结合战略风险识别流程构建了信号分析模型,并建立了战略风险识别框架。进而分析了战略风险形成过程,提出了战略风险识别的信号分析技术和方法。
(3)分析了战略风险识别框架中的基础部分——战略风险形成机理,论述了风险信号的产生机制、信号生长过程以及预警信号的指标及维度,进——步确定了战略风险识别的要素。
(4)阐述了战略风险识别框架中的核心部分——风险信号的辨识与解读。阐明了风险识别的原则与途径,构建了基于信号积累、信号整合、信号确认的风险辨识流程,以及信号扫描与监测模型,并从来源、监测与分析三个角度详细阐述了模型的流程；最后,重点论述了第六章使用到流程中的风险事件分析过程。
(5)构建了南海冲突信号扫描原型,并借助国际关系学中的事件分析、情报学领域的知识图谱、社会网络分析、片断情报分析、情报主题拼图等分析方法,以及Ucinet,SPSS等分析工具,选择《人民日报》、《人民日报海外版》、《参考消息》、《人民网》等信息源,对南海冲突中的风险信号进行了监测和解读,并通过PressDisplay数据库提供的《越南人民报》(Nhan Dan)、《菲律宾星报》(Philippine Star)、《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)等国外媒体作以辅助、验证。
本文研究的国家安全战略风险,更偏向于Intelligence Studies,尤其实证部分所涉及的南海问题研究属于保卫国家主权和领土完整、维护边疆地区稳定的国土安全情报范畴,借助以安全问题研究为主要特征的西方情报研究(Intelligence Studies)与以信息科学研究为主要特征的我国情报学(Information Science)两大领域的理论、方法和相关技术,共同服务于国家安全战略预警。国家安全战略风险的识别,需以信号分析为基础,全源跟踪、搜集片断信息,并对其进行辨识、拼图,广泛关注国际环境变动,还原出情报原型,分析国家面临的风险,才能有效地解决国家安全战略风险识别问题。本文的可能创新点包括以下方面：(1)将情报学领域的信号分析方法应用于国家安全战略风险的要素确定、风险事件分析过程中,构建了信号分析与战略风险识别的融合模型;丰富了情报研究(Intelligence Studies)在战略预警领域的应用,并将面向Information与Intelligence两种情报学研究方法有机地结合在一起,共同服务于国家安全这一国外情报学界一直主攻的战场。(2)应用风险信号识别模型分析南海冲突问题,从情报学的角度尝试如何服务于国家安全决策,为南海问题研究提供了一种新思维。
With the global development in economy, politics and culture, various strategic risks such as domestic risks and international risks, are correlated increasingly with each other, with the possibilities of inter-conversion. Domestic risks of one nation, the important ones in particular, tend to cause a wide range of international influences and even international risks which, especially the serious ones, will undoubtedly result in a nation's internal security or domestic crisis. In order to avoid serious consequences, it is necessary to scan, monitor, identify, interpret and evaluate those risks beforehand. Based on perfect combination of signal analysis and risk identification, this dissertation analyzes the strategic risks from the perspective of intelligence studies, employing relevant theories and methodologies of signal analysis. Besides, the dissertation is to build a strategic risk identification evaluation index system on the basis of risk early warning theories, and to monitor and identify the competitive environment surrounding the nation, its resources and capacity, which is helpful to avoid corresponding crisis and risks, and to enhance the core competitiveness. Therefore, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) It elaborates the concepts and of signal and signal analysis in the field of intelligence studies; illustrates the relationship among signal, information and intelligence; clarifies the concepts of strategic risks and national security strategic risk; discusses the basic theories referring to the signal analysis in strategic risk identification--about the forecast of competitive reaction and the ecological rationale; and it expounds how signal transmission, signal capture and signal analysis to affect strategic risk identification.
(2) Based on the theory of risk signal identification, it proposes strategic risk early warning model from the operating level, considering the complexity and uncertainty of the national security strategic risk identification; Based on the mechanism analyzing of signal formation, it establishes a signal analysis model and a strategic risk identification framework, combined with the process of strategic risk identification. Then, it analyzes the process of strategic risks formation and presents signal analysis techniques and methodologies of strategic risk identification.
(3) It analyzes the fundamental part of the strategic risk identification framework for-strategic risk formation mechanism; it introduces the generation and growth process of signal risk, as well as the indicators and dimension of early warning signals; and it further defines the elements of strategic risk identification.
(4) It relates to the core part in the strategic risk identification framework--the identification and interpretation of risk signal; clarifies the principles and approaches of risk identification and constructs the risk identification process based on the signal accumulation, signal integrity, signal confirmation, as well as the model of signal scanning and monitoring; and it analyzes the processes of the model from such three angles as the source, surveillance and analysis. Finally, it puts emphasis on risk event analysis process used in Chapter Six.
(5) It builds a prototype about risk signal scanning using a series of analytical methods including event analysis in International relations, knowledge map, social network analysis, fragmental intelligence analysis, and intelligence topics puzzle and so on; with the help of analysis tools such as Ucinet, SPSS, it selects information sources from People's Daily, People's Daily Overseas Edition, Nhan Dan, Philippine Star and The Wall Street Journal to monitor and interpret the possible risk signals from South China Sea conflict.
National security strategic risk illustrated in this dissertation mainly refers to Intelligence Studies particularly involved in the empirical part of the South China Sea issue which is a sub-category of homeland security intelligence. National security strategic risk identification is used to identify and analyze risk signals one country encountered which could be discussed through signal analysis theory and methodology such as all-source intelligence and fragmental intelligence analysis. The possible innovations in this dissertation include:(1) Signal analysis is applied to formulate the elements of the national security strategic risk, analyze the risk events and construct the strategic risk identification model that enriches the application of Intelligence Studies.(2) Risk signal identification model is used to analyze the conflicts in the South China Sea and to support national security decision-making from the point of Intelligence Services.
引文
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