长沙城市湿地景观格局时空演变与驱动机制研究
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摘要
古往今来,城市择湿地而建、依湿地而兴、循湿地而发展,湿地水体成为城市生存与发展的关键。在漫长的城市发展历程中,湿地给人们的生产和生活提供了水源、创造了舒适的生活环境和休闲娱乐场所。然而,20世纪以来,伴随着城市经济的快速发展,城市人口迅速增长,湿地面积明显减少,湿地水质急骤退化,空间分布格局显著变化。城市湿地功能退化导致洪灾、城市积水以及水资源短缺等问题,这些严重影响了城市环境宜居水平,阻碍了城市可持续发展。因此,城市湿地规划与利用、保护与建设中迫切需要研究解决以下问题：(1)湿地减少在时间上、空间上、规模上的变化规律；(2)湿地景观格局变化的特点；(3)湿地变化的自然驱动力和社会驱动力。
基于这些问题,借鉴现有的研究成果,以系统科学、景观生态学等理论为基础,凭借GIS和RS技术平台,对长沙市1955、1972和1990年地形图湿地数据及2007年长沙市湿地资源普查数据进行提取,用定性分析和定量分析的方法,从时间梯度和空间梯度的视角,运用(1)存量-流量均衡模型,对1955年以来长沙市各规模的城市湿地演变开展研究；(2)动态-静态空间变化模型,对存量、填埋、新增和保留4种变化状态的城市湿地,1955年以来时空演变进行研究；(3)数量统计-空间统计结合的方法；(4)主成分-灰色关联耦合方法,对城市化过程中湿地景观格局变化及驱动机制进行研究。统计分析使用Microsoft Excel(2003)、 ArcGIS9.2和Geoda软件完成,景观指数计算使用软件程序包FRAGSTATS来实现。
研究主要结论如下：
(1)从规模演变上看,不同规模的城市湿地其变化结果的差异是很大的,规模越大的湿地,新增和填埋的比例越低；规模越小的湿地,新增的比例越高,越容易遭到填埋；1955—2007年间,0.2—-8公顷湿地的平均数量和面积分别为97.8%、61.2%,占有绝对优势。
(2)从时间演变上看,对依据湿地要素划分的河流、沟渠、湖库和水塘四种类型的湿地研究发现：以1990年为界,长沙城市湿地总面积呈现先增后减、总体增加的态势；水塘和沟渠的面积1955-1990年间大幅增加,1990-2007年间大幅减少；湖库面积呈波动变化,1955-1972年间不断减少,1972-1990年间不断增加,1990-2007年间不断减少；河流面积变化小,较为稳定：对依据湿地变化状态划分的存量湿地、填埋湿地、新增湿地和保留湿地四种类型的湿地研究发现：动态空间层次上,存量湿地、增量湿地与城市化高速发展呈负相关,1990—2007年间呈下降态势；填埋湿地、保留湿地在1955—-2007年间呈持续增长的趋势；静态空间层次上,存量湿地、新增湿地和保留湿地,在建成区呈持续的下降趋势,以至于第一空间层次在1972—1990年和1990—2007年两个时段保留湿地数量和面积为零,2007年存量湿地接近于零,每平方公里仅有0.01公顷；存量湿地、新增湿地,在郊区呈增加趋势,但1990年以后呈下降态势。
(3)从空间演变上看,在动态空间层次上,近郊区是城市化过程中受影响最明显的区域。既是存量湿地分布最密集的区域,也是填埋湿地最严重的区域,还是保留湿地最多的区域；建成区始终是存量湿地、新增湿地和保留湿地最少的区域；建成区与郊区的分界线往往是湿地变化趋势的分水岭。在静态空间层次上,随着城市边界的扩张,存量湿地、填埋湿地、新增湿地和保留湿地的峰值分布区域呈现出由内向外、不断外移的梯级增长分布趋势。2007年4种类型湿地的峰值均分布在静态空间的最外层或次外层的远郊区、近郊,离城市中心越远,存量湿地、新增湿地、保留湿地越多。
(4)从分布特征上看,湿地分布呈现围绕城区环状的变化态势。通过Moran'sI指数、Moran散点图分析可得：在这四个时期里,水塘的分布是集聚的,河流的分布是分散的,湖库和沟渠的分布是随机的。1972年、1990年和2007年的水塘的分布是高值聚集形成的空间自相关。其中每个时期大部分水塘的分布呈现正的局部空间自相关。
(5)从质心演变轨迹上看,长沙市湿地质心转移显示不同的路径,不同的区域、不同类型湿地质心移动方向及距离不同。长沙市城市整体湿地质心与各类湿地的偏移路径不同：整体湿地质心在湘江附近移动且偏移不明显,河流质心在湘江附近,坑塘、沟渠、湖库湿地质心都离湘江较远,坑塘、沟渠湿地质心位移偏移较大,湖库、河流湿地质心偏移较小；另外,从湿地质心运动图式来看,长沙市整体湿地质心移动表现为“簇式”,坑塘质心移动呈现“钟摆式”,湖库质心移动呈现“环形”,河流湿地质心移动呈“之字形”走势,沟渠质心移动表现为“折线型”。
(6)从景观指数变化上看,长沙市湿地各类景观指数变化规律不同,破碎度指数中的斑块数量和斑块密度在1990年以前上升,1990年以后下降；形状指数中的景观形状指数变化较大,而斑块形状指数及分维数变化较小；优势度指数单调下降表明,“聚集间有离析”这一布局原则在湿地格局变化中起到作用；从时间变化来看,各类景观指数以1990年为界波动变化,就不同类型湿地而言,河流优势度指数总体趋势下降,湿地功能多样化增强。
(7)从景观变化的驱动机制上看,总体景观格局变化影响因素不同于各类湿地格局变化影响因素。总体景观格局变化的影响因素大小排序是：城市化率、降雨量、GDP、气温、建成区面积、人口、蒸发量；湿地面积的影响因素大小分别为GDP、蒸发量、总人口、建成区面积、城市化率、降雨量、气温；湿地景观破碎度的影响因素从大到小的顺序为：GDP、降雨量、城市化率、气温、蒸发量、人口、建成区面积；景观聚集度的影响因素大小是：总人口、GDP、建成区面积、城市化率、降雨量、气温、蒸发量。
论文的主要成果是构建了流量存量-动态静态空间模型,此模型用来评估城市湿地相关格局的时间梯度和空间梯度变化特征。该模型可以拓展用来研究湿地水量动态变化和城市森林、水质污染等其它自然资源的状态变化分析。湿地景观主要要素的驱动机制分析,可以用来指导城市景观规划与建设,识别易损性湿地类型和地域,为湿地保护提供依据。从系统层次性和反馈性角度,利用主成分和灰色关联分析结合的方法来定性和定量研究湿地景观格局是一种新方法,辨别城市各类湿地驱动力,有利于城市湿地的分类保护,有利于城市湿地各项功能实现,因此,论文的理论研究和实证分析可为同类城市生态研究等提供借鉴。
Through the ages, city has been built near the wetland(river,lake,etc.),hing for wetlands, and shall be liable on wetlands development.Urban wetlands have been the lifeline of most cities. They are preserved and looked after by the people as their main source of water supply for drinking and irrigation, a comfortable envronment and entertainment site.They provide natural flood control, and support a diverse variety of fish, wildlife, and plants.
The growth of urban and suburban areas has been a dominant demographic characteristic of the20th century, the trend is intensified by the rapid development of the urban economy. Such changes, especially in built-up areas, have led to a decreasement in wetland area,wetland water quality degradation, and significant changes in the spatial distribution pattern of wetland. Urban wetland functional degradation has led to a number of problems in urban areas such as flooding, water scarcity,and water logging,which seriously affect the livability of the urban environment, hinder the sustainable development of city. Therefore, urban wetland planning and utilization, protection and construction have the urgent need to study the following questions:(1)what is the path of wetland loss in temporal-spatial scale?(2)what is the characteristic of wetland landscape pattern?(3) what's the natural and social driving forces of urban wetland change in context of rapid urbanization?
This study, integrating landscape pattern analysis and system dynamics, aims to investigate wetland landscape pattern change and its driving mechanism in the process of urbanization. It concerns the point of view of the qualitative and quantitative analysis and it was implemented with GIS and RS technology platform.The following method series were used:(1)Stock-Flow dynamic equilibrium model.(2) Dynamic-Static spatial variation mode.(3)mathematical Statistics-spatial statistical combining method.(4) the principal component analysis-gray correlation coupling models.
These statistics were performed using Microsoft Excel (2003),ArcGIS Desktop software in conjunction with the Statistical Analyst extension and Geoda. Landscape metrics were calculated using specific software packages FRAGSTATS3.3.
The following conclusions have been drawn:
(1)At the size level,the urban wetland pattern change was significantly affected by the wetland size, The larger the size of wetlands was, the higher the proportion of retention was, the lower the proportion of filled or newly-constructed wetland was,The smaller the size of the wetlands was, the more vulnerable the landfill was.
The small size wetland was easy to be more filled than the larger size wetland. The average number and area proportion with the size of0.2-8hm2wetland was91.1%、60.7%,which covered the majority in the total area.
(2)In terms of temporal scale, according to the four kinds of wetland by the characteristic of elements, the wetland area increased firstly and then decreased, i.e, total areas of urban patch wetlands in Changsha increased from1955to1990, but then decreased from1990to2007.The area of ponds and ditches increased significantly from1955to1990, however, substantially decreased froml990to2007. The area of lake and reservoir fluctuated, it decreased ceaselessly from1955to1972, and increased from1972to1990, then decreased from1990to2007.The change of the area of river was small and stable.
According to four kinds of wetland change status, the changing trend of stock wetland and gain wetland in the status of dynamic space increased prior to1990and decreased after1990. while the area of filled and reserving wetland continued to increase in1955-2007.
The changing trend of stock wetland, newly-constructed and reserving wetland in the status of static space continued to decrease in build-up district. Consequently, the newly-constructed wetland in build-up was zero and stock wetland was near to disappear from1955-2007. The wetland density in the first ring sprawl in central city declined from0.46hm2/km2in1955to0.01hm2/km2in2007,which was near to zero and indicated that an urgen measurement should be conducted there. The density of stock, newly-constructed wetland showed a different trend after1990.
(3)From the dynamic change of space, In terms of dynamic space, the wetland in suburban was most likely to be affected druing the urbanization. The ratio of filled wetland in build-up area varied in opposite directions in suburban region. The highest ratio of wetland landfill and reservation was located in peri-urban. Moreover, the stock wetland had the most amount in the district. In either dynamic or static space, the boundaries between downtown area and suburbs were key area of changes in urban patch wetlands.
In terms of dynamic space, the highest area change of stock,filled, newly-constructed and reserving wetland extended from build-up district to rural district, which displayed a gradient change. The peak range of area chage of four kinds of wetland appeared in outskirts or sub-outskirt, the larger the distance to the center of city was, the more stock newly-constructed and reserving wetland was.
(4)From the perspective of wetland distribution, all wetlands ring distributed around the city of Changsha from1955to2007. In the four period, according to Moran's I index, Moran scattered point diagram, a clustered distribution was displayed in ponds, a dispersed distribution in river and a random distribution in the lakes and canals. And in1972,1990and2007, the distribution of the ponds was high value formed by the aggregation of spatial autocorrelation. Furthermore, the distribution of a lot of ponds presented positive local spatial autocorrelation in each period.
(5) From the evulation of wetland centroid chang,the results indicated that the centroid of wetland land in Changsha city during1955-2007shifted various distance with a different directions, which displayed all kinds of paths for different kinds of regions.
The whole wetland centroid shift was different from those of various types of wetland in Changsha city:the whole wetland centroid was at the vicinity of Xiangjiang River and the offset was not obvious, the centroid of river was near to Xiangjiang River, the wetland centroids of ditches, ponds and reservoir were distant from Xiangjiang River, wetland centroids of pond and ditch deviated remotely and those of lakes and rivers change nearly. In addition, the dynamic paradigm of wetland centroid was various, the whole city wetland centroid change of Changsha performed as the" cluster-type", centroid movement of pond emerged as "pendulum-type", centroid path of lake displayed"ring-type", wetland centroid trend of river showed as the" zigzag-type",centroid track of ditch developed as the" plotline-type".
(6) From the point of wetland landscape metrics change,wetland landscape metrics were very evident, it depended on the sorts of wetlands, the pattern number and density of fragmentation index increased before the1990, which was opposed to that of change trend after the1990. Of the entire shape index, the landscape shape index change was greater than that of pattern shape index and fraction index. The monotonous drop of wetland landscape dominance showed that "accumulation and dissipation" principal was functioning in wetland planning.
From the time point of view, the change of all various types landscape indices fluctuated at the demarcation point of1990, in terms of perspective of different types of wetlands, LPI index of rivers overall declined, which indicated that functions diversity of urban wetland increased.
(7) From the mechanism of wetland landscape metric change,the results showed that the overall wetland landscape pattern change was different from that of specific wetland pattern aspect.
The order of impact ranged from maximum to minimum:the overall wetland pattern followed the sequence of urbanization rate>rainfall> GDP>temperature> built-up area> population> evaporation; the impact order of wetland area change was as follow:GDP> evaporation> total population> built-up area> urbanization rate> rainfall> temperature; the order of impacting on wetland landscape fragmentation was presented as follow:GDP> rainfall> urbanization rate> temperature> evaporation> total population> built-up area;the rank of the landscape aggregation affecting factors was listed as follows:total population> GDP> built-up area> urbanization rate> rainfall> temperature> evaporation.
The main impact of the research is its contribution to the assessment of temporal and spatial changes from urbanization through the creation and application of stock-flow and dynamic-static model(SF-DS). The SF-DS model could be extended to be used in wetland waterbody amount assessments or other natural resource change estimation. The inclusion of landscape related area and other pattern metrics could help to guide appropriate plans of urban development, help to gauge the vulnerability of wetlands to future urbanization, guide wetland risk management, and inform urban adaptation strategies.
The application of principal component analysis and grey correlation analysis (PCA-GA) to estimate wetland landscape pattern changes from urbanization is a relatively new and developing area of research. The research highlights how PCA-GA analysis could be used to provide estimates of wetland landscape pattern change under future urbanization, which are more systemic, and useful for assessing driving forces of future wetland change and urbanization.
Consequently, there are many gains to be seen from the continued development and application of this research methodology for wetland temporal-spatial change.
基于这些问题,借鉴现有的研究成果,以系统科学、景观生态学等理论为基础,凭借GIS和RS技术平台,对长沙市1955、1972和1990年地形图湿地数据及2007年长沙市湿地资源普查数据进行提取,用定性分析和定量分析的方法,从时间梯度和空间梯度的视角,运用(1)存量-流量均衡模型,对1955年以来长沙市各规模的城市湿地演变开展研究；(2)动态-静态空间变化模型,对存量、填埋、新增和保留4种变化状态的城市湿地,1955年以来时空演变进行研究；(3)数量统计-空间统计结合的方法；(4)主成分-灰色关联耦合方法,对城市化过程中湿地景观格局变化及驱动机制进行研究。统计分析使用Microsoft Excel(2003)、 ArcGIS9.2和Geoda软件完成,景观指数计算使用软件程序包FRAGSTATS来实现。
研究主要结论如下：
(1)从规模演变上看,不同规模的城市湿地其变化结果的差异是很大的,规模越大的湿地,新增和填埋的比例越低；规模越小的湿地,新增的比例越高,越容易遭到填埋；1955—2007年间,0.2—-8公顷湿地的平均数量和面积分别为97.8%、61.2%,占有绝对优势。
(2)从时间演变上看,对依据湿地要素划分的河流、沟渠、湖库和水塘四种类型的湿地研究发现：以1990年为界,长沙城市湿地总面积呈现先增后减、总体增加的态势；水塘和沟渠的面积1955-1990年间大幅增加,1990-2007年间大幅减少；湖库面积呈波动变化,1955-1972年间不断减少,1972-1990年间不断增加,1990-2007年间不断减少；河流面积变化小,较为稳定：对依据湿地变化状态划分的存量湿地、填埋湿地、新增湿地和保留湿地四种类型的湿地研究发现：动态空间层次上,存量湿地、增量湿地与城市化高速发展呈负相关,1990—2007年间呈下降态势；填埋湿地、保留湿地在1955—-2007年间呈持续增长的趋势；静态空间层次上,存量湿地、新增湿地和保留湿地,在建成区呈持续的下降趋势,以至于第一空间层次在1972—1990年和1990—2007年两个时段保留湿地数量和面积为零,2007年存量湿地接近于零,每平方公里仅有0.01公顷；存量湿地、新增湿地,在郊区呈增加趋势,但1990年以后呈下降态势。
(3)从空间演变上看,在动态空间层次上,近郊区是城市化过程中受影响最明显的区域。既是存量湿地分布最密集的区域,也是填埋湿地最严重的区域,还是保留湿地最多的区域；建成区始终是存量湿地、新增湿地和保留湿地最少的区域；建成区与郊区的分界线往往是湿地变化趋势的分水岭。在静态空间层次上,随着城市边界的扩张,存量湿地、填埋湿地、新增湿地和保留湿地的峰值分布区域呈现出由内向外、不断外移的梯级增长分布趋势。2007年4种类型湿地的峰值均分布在静态空间的最外层或次外层的远郊区、近郊,离城市中心越远,存量湿地、新增湿地、保留湿地越多。
(4)从分布特征上看,湿地分布呈现围绕城区环状的变化态势。通过Moran'sI指数、Moran散点图分析可得：在这四个时期里,水塘的分布是集聚的,河流的分布是分散的,湖库和沟渠的分布是随机的。1972年、1990年和2007年的水塘的分布是高值聚集形成的空间自相关。其中每个时期大部分水塘的分布呈现正的局部空间自相关。
(5)从质心演变轨迹上看,长沙市湿地质心转移显示不同的路径,不同的区域、不同类型湿地质心移动方向及距离不同。长沙市城市整体湿地质心与各类湿地的偏移路径不同：整体湿地质心在湘江附近移动且偏移不明显,河流质心在湘江附近,坑塘、沟渠、湖库湿地质心都离湘江较远,坑塘、沟渠湿地质心位移偏移较大,湖库、河流湿地质心偏移较小；另外,从湿地质心运动图式来看,长沙市整体湿地质心移动表现为“簇式”,坑塘质心移动呈现“钟摆式”,湖库质心移动呈现“环形”,河流湿地质心移动呈“之字形”走势,沟渠质心移动表现为“折线型”。
(6)从景观指数变化上看,长沙市湿地各类景观指数变化规律不同,破碎度指数中的斑块数量和斑块密度在1990年以前上升,1990年以后下降；形状指数中的景观形状指数变化较大,而斑块形状指数及分维数变化较小；优势度指数单调下降表明,“聚集间有离析”这一布局原则在湿地格局变化中起到作用；从时间变化来看,各类景观指数以1990年为界波动变化,就不同类型湿地而言,河流优势度指数总体趋势下降,湿地功能多样化增强。
(7)从景观变化的驱动机制上看,总体景观格局变化影响因素不同于各类湿地格局变化影响因素。总体景观格局变化的影响因素大小排序是：城市化率、降雨量、GDP、气温、建成区面积、人口、蒸发量；湿地面积的影响因素大小分别为GDP、蒸发量、总人口、建成区面积、城市化率、降雨量、气温；湿地景观破碎度的影响因素从大到小的顺序为：GDP、降雨量、城市化率、气温、蒸发量、人口、建成区面积；景观聚集度的影响因素大小是：总人口、GDP、建成区面积、城市化率、降雨量、气温、蒸发量。
论文的主要成果是构建了流量存量-动态静态空间模型,此模型用来评估城市湿地相关格局的时间梯度和空间梯度变化特征。该模型可以拓展用来研究湿地水量动态变化和城市森林、水质污染等其它自然资源的状态变化分析。湿地景观主要要素的驱动机制分析,可以用来指导城市景观规划与建设,识别易损性湿地类型和地域,为湿地保护提供依据。从系统层次性和反馈性角度,利用主成分和灰色关联分析结合的方法来定性和定量研究湿地景观格局是一种新方法,辨别城市各类湿地驱动力,有利于城市湿地的分类保护,有利于城市湿地各项功能实现,因此,论文的理论研究和实证分析可为同类城市生态研究等提供借鉴。
Through the ages, city has been built near the wetland(river,lake,etc.),hing for wetlands, and shall be liable on wetlands development.Urban wetlands have been the lifeline of most cities. They are preserved and looked after by the people as their main source of water supply for drinking and irrigation, a comfortable envronment and entertainment site.They provide natural flood control, and support a diverse variety of fish, wildlife, and plants.
The growth of urban and suburban areas has been a dominant demographic characteristic of the20th century, the trend is intensified by the rapid development of the urban economy. Such changes, especially in built-up areas, have led to a decreasement in wetland area,wetland water quality degradation, and significant changes in the spatial distribution pattern of wetland. Urban wetland functional degradation has led to a number of problems in urban areas such as flooding, water scarcity,and water logging,which seriously affect the livability of the urban environment, hinder the sustainable development of city. Therefore, urban wetland planning and utilization, protection and construction have the urgent need to study the following questions:(1)what is the path of wetland loss in temporal-spatial scale?(2)what is the characteristic of wetland landscape pattern?(3) what's the natural and social driving forces of urban wetland change in context of rapid urbanization?
This study, integrating landscape pattern analysis and system dynamics, aims to investigate wetland landscape pattern change and its driving mechanism in the process of urbanization. It concerns the point of view of the qualitative and quantitative analysis and it was implemented with GIS and RS technology platform.The following method series were used:(1)Stock-Flow dynamic equilibrium model.(2) Dynamic-Static spatial variation mode.(3)mathematical Statistics-spatial statistical combining method.(4) the principal component analysis-gray correlation coupling models.
These statistics were performed using Microsoft Excel (2003),ArcGIS Desktop software in conjunction with the Statistical Analyst extension and Geoda. Landscape metrics were calculated using specific software packages FRAGSTATS3.3.
The following conclusions have been drawn:
(1)At the size level,the urban wetland pattern change was significantly affected by the wetland size, The larger the size of wetlands was, the higher the proportion of retention was, the lower the proportion of filled or newly-constructed wetland was,The smaller the size of the wetlands was, the more vulnerable the landfill was.
The small size wetland was easy to be more filled than the larger size wetland. The average number and area proportion with the size of0.2-8hm2wetland was91.1%、60.7%,which covered the majority in the total area.
(2)In terms of temporal scale, according to the four kinds of wetland by the characteristic of elements, the wetland area increased firstly and then decreased, i.e, total areas of urban patch wetlands in Changsha increased from1955to1990, but then decreased from1990to2007.The area of ponds and ditches increased significantly from1955to1990, however, substantially decreased froml990to2007. The area of lake and reservoir fluctuated, it decreased ceaselessly from1955to1972, and increased from1972to1990, then decreased from1990to2007.The change of the area of river was small and stable.
According to four kinds of wetland change status, the changing trend of stock wetland and gain wetland in the status of dynamic space increased prior to1990and decreased after1990. while the area of filled and reserving wetland continued to increase in1955-2007.
The changing trend of stock wetland, newly-constructed and reserving wetland in the status of static space continued to decrease in build-up district. Consequently, the newly-constructed wetland in build-up was zero and stock wetland was near to disappear from1955-2007. The wetland density in the first ring sprawl in central city declined from0.46hm2/km2in1955to0.01hm2/km2in2007,which was near to zero and indicated that an urgen measurement should be conducted there. The density of stock, newly-constructed wetland showed a different trend after1990.
(3)From the dynamic change of space, In terms of dynamic space, the wetland in suburban was most likely to be affected druing the urbanization. The ratio of filled wetland in build-up area varied in opposite directions in suburban region. The highest ratio of wetland landfill and reservation was located in peri-urban. Moreover, the stock wetland had the most amount in the district. In either dynamic or static space, the boundaries between downtown area and suburbs were key area of changes in urban patch wetlands.
In terms of dynamic space, the highest area change of stock,filled, newly-constructed and reserving wetland extended from build-up district to rural district, which displayed a gradient change. The peak range of area chage of four kinds of wetland appeared in outskirts or sub-outskirt, the larger the distance to the center of city was, the more stock newly-constructed and reserving wetland was.
(4)From the perspective of wetland distribution, all wetlands ring distributed around the city of Changsha from1955to2007. In the four period, according to Moran's I index, Moran scattered point diagram, a clustered distribution was displayed in ponds, a dispersed distribution in river and a random distribution in the lakes and canals. And in1972,1990and2007, the distribution of the ponds was high value formed by the aggregation of spatial autocorrelation. Furthermore, the distribution of a lot of ponds presented positive local spatial autocorrelation in each period.
(5) From the evulation of wetland centroid chang,the results indicated that the centroid of wetland land in Changsha city during1955-2007shifted various distance with a different directions, which displayed all kinds of paths for different kinds of regions.
The whole wetland centroid shift was different from those of various types of wetland in Changsha city:the whole wetland centroid was at the vicinity of Xiangjiang River and the offset was not obvious, the centroid of river was near to Xiangjiang River, the wetland centroids of ditches, ponds and reservoir were distant from Xiangjiang River, wetland centroids of pond and ditch deviated remotely and those of lakes and rivers change nearly. In addition, the dynamic paradigm of wetland centroid was various, the whole city wetland centroid change of Changsha performed as the" cluster-type", centroid movement of pond emerged as "pendulum-type", centroid path of lake displayed"ring-type", wetland centroid trend of river showed as the" zigzag-type",centroid track of ditch developed as the" plotline-type".
(6) From the point of wetland landscape metrics change,wetland landscape metrics were very evident, it depended on the sorts of wetlands, the pattern number and density of fragmentation index increased before the1990, which was opposed to that of change trend after the1990. Of the entire shape index, the landscape shape index change was greater than that of pattern shape index and fraction index. The monotonous drop of wetland landscape dominance showed that "accumulation and dissipation" principal was functioning in wetland planning.
From the time point of view, the change of all various types landscape indices fluctuated at the demarcation point of1990, in terms of perspective of different types of wetlands, LPI index of rivers overall declined, which indicated that functions diversity of urban wetland increased.
(7) From the mechanism of wetland landscape metric change,the results showed that the overall wetland landscape pattern change was different from that of specific wetland pattern aspect.
The order of impact ranged from maximum to minimum:the overall wetland pattern followed the sequence of urbanization rate>rainfall> GDP>temperature> built-up area> population> evaporation; the impact order of wetland area change was as follow:GDP> evaporation> total population> built-up area> urbanization rate> rainfall> temperature; the order of impacting on wetland landscape fragmentation was presented as follow:GDP> rainfall> urbanization rate> temperature> evaporation> total population> built-up area;the rank of the landscape aggregation affecting factors was listed as follows:total population> GDP> built-up area> urbanization rate> rainfall> temperature> evaporation.
The main impact of the research is its contribution to the assessment of temporal and spatial changes from urbanization through the creation and application of stock-flow and dynamic-static model(SF-DS). The SF-DS model could be extended to be used in wetland waterbody amount assessments or other natural resource change estimation. The inclusion of landscape related area and other pattern metrics could help to guide appropriate plans of urban development, help to gauge the vulnerability of wetlands to future urbanization, guide wetland risk management, and inform urban adaptation strategies.
The application of principal component analysis and grey correlation analysis (PCA-GA) to estimate wetland landscape pattern changes from urbanization is a relatively new and developing area of research. The research highlights how PCA-GA analysis could be used to provide estimates of wetland landscape pattern change under future urbanization, which are more systemic, and useful for assessing driving forces of future wetland change and urbanization.
Consequently, there are many gains to be seen from the continued development and application of this research methodology for wetland temporal-spatial change.
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