我国战略环境评价中的情景分析研究
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摘要
战略环境评价(Strategic Environmental Assessment,以下简称“SEA”)在预测未来可能发生的环境影响时需面对众多不确定因素,这是未来的本质也是SEA的评价对象--战略所决定的。因此,对未来做出合理的预测是保证SEA结论的科学性和可信度的关键,否则SEA将难以说服决策者在最终的决策制定中考虑环境影响、采纳SEA提出的对策建议和减缓措施。目前,SEA的多数理论是在项目环评的基础上发展而来的,不足以解决预测中的不确定性问题。因此亟需寻找支撑SEA中预测分析的理论基础,使环评人员能够站在战略的高度深入探讨所涉及的复杂系统,超越现状趋势,展望未来发展的多种可能,从而做出合理的预测。因此在充分研究SEA中不确定因素及预测的特点的基础上,建立SEA预测的理论基础,并研究如何将这些理论融入SEA、指导SEA的预测分析,对于填补我国SEA这方面研究的空白有积极意义,也能够为选择处理具体的预测技术和方法奠定基础。
深入探讨SEA所面对的各类不确定因素后,本文提出复杂系统内部和外部的结构性不确定因素和先决因素是影响SEA预测分析质量的重点。根据两类因素的特点,本文提出未来研究理论、复杂系统理论和路径依赖理论是能够指导SEA预测分析的理论基础,它们对SEA中所采用的技术方法提出了具体的要求。在对情景分析进行概述后,本文认为作为未来研究和预测的重要方法情景分析能够满足三大理论对SEA预测方法的要求,能够适用于我国SEA。
然而,由于缺乏对未来和情景分析的认识,当前我国SEA中的情景分析存在被简化、误用的情况。对比国外环境评价中的情景分析案例,本文推荐了适应我国SEA特色的情景分析模式：“规划-情景-评价”以及定性定量相结合的情景分析模式,同时灵活选用归纳或演绎情景分析模式。
在推荐模式下,本文对情景分析的核心--建立情景进行了深入讨论。本文提出应当从规划文本、规划过程、规划执行过程、系统内自然环境系统、外部政策、社会经济条件、技术发展、外部自然环境等不同来源识别复杂系统内部和外部的驱动力,并通过回顾分析、类比分析探讨驱动因子的根源。本文还拟定了包括全球、国家、省／区域和市／地方四个层次以及社会、经济、技术和环境四个类别的复杂系统发展的驱动力清单,为评价人员的实践提供参考。本文还构建了“四阶段”方法,以指导评价分析人员利用归纳法和演绎法完成整个情景的构建。
随后本文继续对SEA中情景分析的方法学进行深入研究,建立了包含“生成”技术、“整合”技术和“协调”技术等三类技术方法的SEA情景分析方法集,详细探讨了每一种技术方法在SEA情景分析中的应用及作用；开发了一套融入我国SEA程序的情景分析框架,阐述了其技术全过程,即从战略分析到跟踪评价的每一个环节中情景分析的主要任务及其与SEA任务的结合,以及可采用的技术方法。
最后,本文开展了两个实例分析。以“滨海新区发展战略环境评价中的情景分析”为例重点说明复杂系统的驱动力的识别与分析方法,以及如何在SEA中建立综合情景与分情景以及如何开展基于情景的预测分析。实例分析验证了本文提出的我国SEA中情景分析的规律。又以“湖北省骨架公路网规划战略环境评价中的情景分析”为例证明本文提出的融入SEA全过程的情景分析框架是可行的。
Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently faces various uncertainties when environmental impacts are predicted. The uncertainty is caused by the strategic decision-the object of SEA. Thus, it is crucial to provide with sound prediction of impacts in the future so that the conclusions of SEA are scientific and reliable. Otherwise, the SEA can not convince the decision-makers that the environmental concerns and recommendations and mitigations of SEA should be integrated into the decision-making. Most of the SEA theories derive from project environmental assessment and are sufficient to cope with uncertainty. It is necessary to explore theories that can underpin the prediction of SEA on the basis of which SEA practitioners could examine the concerned complex system at a strategic level, look beyond current trends, get insights into possible futures and conduct reasonable prediction to the end. This thesis studies the uncertainties in SEA and researches how to integrate the underpinning theories into SEA and how they can advance prediction in SEA. It is meaningful for SEA research in this field in China and helpful to establish the basis for specific prediction techniques and methods.
After exploring different types of uncertainties in SEA, this thesis asserts the structural uncertainty that lies inside and outside the complex system and predetermined factors both affect the quality of prediction most. According to characteristics of these two types of factors, this thesis proposes that theories of futures study, complex system and path dependence can be regarded as fundament for prediction in SEA. The requirements for SEA prediction techniques and methods are concluded from these three theories. By examining scenario analysis (SA) and its advantages, it is concluded that SA as an important methodology for futures study can satisfy the requirements and adapt to SEA in China.
However, SA has been simplified and misused in most SEA in China to date due to lack of understanding of the future and SA. Drawing on experiences of SA in environmental assessment cases all across the world, this thesis recommends SA modes for SEA in China, viz. "plan-scenario-assessment" and combined qualitative and quantitative SA mode. Meanwhile, inductive or deductive mode of SA should be flexibly adopted.
Under the recommended modes, the core of SA-scenario building-is discussed. It is concluded that driving forces for future development lie inside and outside the complex system. Their sources include the plan text, planning process, implementation process, inner natural environmental subsystem, external policies, socio-economic conditions, technology development and external natural environmental system. The roots of the drivers should be explored through retrospective analysis and analogous analysis. This thesis also proposes a checklist of driving forces of the complex system at four levels (including global, national, provincial/regional and local levels) and in four aspects (including social, economic, technological and environmental). The checklist is practical for SEA practitioners. A four-phase methodology is also developed to guide establishment of scenarios using inductive and deductive SA.
Subsequently, in-depth methodological research on SA in SEA is conducted. A method set including generating techniques, integrating techniques and consistency techniques is established. The function and instructions for each technique in the context of SEA in China are discussed. This thesis develops a SA framework that can be integrated into SEA process in China. The whole technical process is elaborated. That is, tasks of SA and the integration with SEA tasks and techniques available are illustrated for each step from strategy analysis to follow-up.
To the end, two SA cases in SEA are analyzed. In the case "SA in SEA for Binhai New Area Development", the methods for identifying and analyzing driving forces of complex system are tested. The use of integrated and sub-scenarios and the prediction and analysis based on scenarios are elaborated as well. In the case "SA in SEA for Hubei Road Network Plan", the feasibility of the SA framework proposed in this thesis is demonstrated.
深入探讨SEA所面对的各类不确定因素后,本文提出复杂系统内部和外部的结构性不确定因素和先决因素是影响SEA预测分析质量的重点。根据两类因素的特点,本文提出未来研究理论、复杂系统理论和路径依赖理论是能够指导SEA预测分析的理论基础,它们对SEA中所采用的技术方法提出了具体的要求。在对情景分析进行概述后,本文认为作为未来研究和预测的重要方法情景分析能够满足三大理论对SEA预测方法的要求,能够适用于我国SEA。
然而,由于缺乏对未来和情景分析的认识,当前我国SEA中的情景分析存在被简化、误用的情况。对比国外环境评价中的情景分析案例,本文推荐了适应我国SEA特色的情景分析模式：“规划-情景-评价”以及定性定量相结合的情景分析模式,同时灵活选用归纳或演绎情景分析模式。
在推荐模式下,本文对情景分析的核心--建立情景进行了深入讨论。本文提出应当从规划文本、规划过程、规划执行过程、系统内自然环境系统、外部政策、社会经济条件、技术发展、外部自然环境等不同来源识别复杂系统内部和外部的驱动力,并通过回顾分析、类比分析探讨驱动因子的根源。本文还拟定了包括全球、国家、省／区域和市／地方四个层次以及社会、经济、技术和环境四个类别的复杂系统发展的驱动力清单,为评价人员的实践提供参考。本文还构建了“四阶段”方法,以指导评价分析人员利用归纳法和演绎法完成整个情景的构建。
随后本文继续对SEA中情景分析的方法学进行深入研究,建立了包含“生成”技术、“整合”技术和“协调”技术等三类技术方法的SEA情景分析方法集,详细探讨了每一种技术方法在SEA情景分析中的应用及作用；开发了一套融入我国SEA程序的情景分析框架,阐述了其技术全过程,即从战略分析到跟踪评价的每一个环节中情景分析的主要任务及其与SEA任务的结合,以及可采用的技术方法。
最后,本文开展了两个实例分析。以“滨海新区发展战略环境评价中的情景分析”为例重点说明复杂系统的驱动力的识别与分析方法,以及如何在SEA中建立综合情景与分情景以及如何开展基于情景的预测分析。实例分析验证了本文提出的我国SEA中情景分析的规律。又以“湖北省骨架公路网规划战略环境评价中的情景分析”为例证明本文提出的融入SEA全过程的情景分析框架是可行的。
Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently faces various uncertainties when environmental impacts are predicted. The uncertainty is caused by the strategic decision-the object of SEA. Thus, it is crucial to provide with sound prediction of impacts in the future so that the conclusions of SEA are scientific and reliable. Otherwise, the SEA can not convince the decision-makers that the environmental concerns and recommendations and mitigations of SEA should be integrated into the decision-making. Most of the SEA theories derive from project environmental assessment and are sufficient to cope with uncertainty. It is necessary to explore theories that can underpin the prediction of SEA on the basis of which SEA practitioners could examine the concerned complex system at a strategic level, look beyond current trends, get insights into possible futures and conduct reasonable prediction to the end. This thesis studies the uncertainties in SEA and researches how to integrate the underpinning theories into SEA and how they can advance prediction in SEA. It is meaningful for SEA research in this field in China and helpful to establish the basis for specific prediction techniques and methods.
After exploring different types of uncertainties in SEA, this thesis asserts the structural uncertainty that lies inside and outside the complex system and predetermined factors both affect the quality of prediction most. According to characteristics of these two types of factors, this thesis proposes that theories of futures study, complex system and path dependence can be regarded as fundament for prediction in SEA. The requirements for SEA prediction techniques and methods are concluded from these three theories. By examining scenario analysis (SA) and its advantages, it is concluded that SA as an important methodology for futures study can satisfy the requirements and adapt to SEA in China.
However, SA has been simplified and misused in most SEA in China to date due to lack of understanding of the future and SA. Drawing on experiences of SA in environmental assessment cases all across the world, this thesis recommends SA modes for SEA in China, viz. "plan-scenario-assessment" and combined qualitative and quantitative SA mode. Meanwhile, inductive or deductive mode of SA should be flexibly adopted.
Under the recommended modes, the core of SA-scenario building-is discussed. It is concluded that driving forces for future development lie inside and outside the complex system. Their sources include the plan text, planning process, implementation process, inner natural environmental subsystem, external policies, socio-economic conditions, technology development and external natural environmental system. The roots of the drivers should be explored through retrospective analysis and analogous analysis. This thesis also proposes a checklist of driving forces of the complex system at four levels (including global, national, provincial/regional and local levels) and in four aspects (including social, economic, technological and environmental). The checklist is practical for SEA practitioners. A four-phase methodology is also developed to guide establishment of scenarios using inductive and deductive SA.
Subsequently, in-depth methodological research on SA in SEA is conducted. A method set including generating techniques, integrating techniques and consistency techniques is established. The function and instructions for each technique in the context of SEA in China are discussed. This thesis develops a SA framework that can be integrated into SEA process in China. The whole technical process is elaborated. That is, tasks of SA and the integration with SEA tasks and techniques available are illustrated for each step from strategy analysis to follow-up.
To the end, two SA cases in SEA are analyzed. In the case "SA in SEA for Binhai New Area Development", the methods for identifying and analyzing driving forces of complex system are tested. The use of integrated and sub-scenarios and the prediction and analysis based on scenarios are elaborated as well. In the case "SA in SEA for Hubei Road Network Plan", the feasibility of the SA framework proposed in this thesis is demonstrated.
引文
1香港的环境影响评价体系不同于中国大陆,因此本文将香港开展的SEA与国外案例一同讨论。
4此处的“政策”泛指系统外部具有强制性的各种政策、规划、计划等。
5头脑风暴法包含多种技术,不同技术特点不同。本表仅针对头脑风暴法的普遍特征与其他方法进行对比。
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5头脑风暴法包含多种技术,不同技术特点不同。本表仅针对头脑风暴法的普遍特征与其他方法进行对比。
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