基于经济增长与生态环境保护双赢的减物质化研究
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摘要
减物质化是为解决日益严重的资源短缺、环境污染问题而提出的一种新的可持续发展思路,即在经济增长同时逐步降低资源环境压力。其概念的提出可以追溯到上个世纪80年代,最初减物质化的内涵仅仅局限于物质质量(重量)的降低,特别是对于微观产品层面的关注最为广泛,而对于从宏观层面对物质减量本身所引起的环境压力的关注较少。特别是,随着“生态效率”思想的提出,更多的关注应用技术手段,提高物质生产率,降低物质消耗的强度,实现“跃进增长”,而忽略了物质消耗的能动反应和由此引起的反弹效应,“技术革命”由此演变为“效率陷阱”。此外,对于减物质化过程中的物质消耗的二次投入所引起的环境压力和经济成本等问题的关注也略显薄弱。
因此,本文从减物质化概念入手,从环境压力角度、功能经济角度和物质流角度,解析减物质化深层次内涵。综合环境经济学和其他学科的研究,从微观-中观-宏观三个层次,揭示减物质化概念的嬗变,并结合环境经济学和生态经济学经典理论,初步构建了减物质化一般研究框架。以宏观层面经济增长与资源环境压力的“脱钩”为表征,对我国过去20年的经济发展与资源环境变量的耦合关系进行测度,并通过与处于不同发展阶段的国家的比较研究,探析我国经济增长与资源环境变量之间的作用机理。针对目前研究中,对减物质化的经济特征关注相对不足的现状,分析主要社会经济因素对减物质化目标实现的驱动效应。针对减物质化研究中偏重于“重量减量”的情况,从物质自身的属性和全生命周期的视角,研究减物质化与环境压力之间的响应关系。此外,以交易成本为切入点,从经济学角度,分析了交易成本因素对物质循环利用的影响。针对强度指标与总量指标矛盾关系背后的经济学内涵,综合应用新古典经济学、能源经济学和环境经济学解析反弹效应的本质,并以我国能源消耗为例进行实证研究。最后,以减物质化理论为指导,运用脱钩指标体系,综合考虑影响我国减物质化实现的因素,构建符合我国国情的适宜的减物质化情景目标。
相对于现有的研究,本文的创新点主要体现在以下四个方面：
第一,初步构建了清晰的减物质化理论体系。基于生态经济大系统均衡与功能维持的视角,以经济增长与生态环境保护双赢为主线,并结合生态经济学、环境经济学等经典理论,从多维度解析减物质化内涵；从宏观层面的物质消耗的EKC和长期波动理论研究、中观层面的反弹效应与FACTOR X方面研究、微观层面的物质集聚方面研究,多层次系统地梳理减物质化研究进展,揭示减物质化概念的嬗变,初步构建减物质化研究框架,为循环经济发展,特别是在理论层面的探索,做出了有益的补充。
第二,从环境压力与社会经济的研究视角,识别与分析减物质化的影响因素。本研究避免了仅从重量减量和技术特征角度进行减物质化分析局限性,从物质自身的属性出发,关注物质环境属性在特定应用领域内的环境压力的比较与测度问题,解析减物质化过程中物质自身属性与环境压力之间的响应关系；从全生命周期的研究视角关注物质的消耗、流动、减量、循环过程中所引起的环境压力的大小,建立以经济链条为载体的物质流动环境影响分析框架；跳出减物质化研究多着眼于技术方面的局限,从物质流与价值流相融合的视角,对减物质化目标的驱动因素进行全面分解与识别,特别是针对社会经济因素的驱动效应进行深入研究,识别和分析物质在经济过程中流动的影响因素及其作用规律。为区域物质代谢最优路径选择和环境政策的制定提供综合性分析框架,有利于促进学科交叉和融合。
第三,解析强度指标与总量指标的矛盾关系,量化我国物质消耗的反弹效应。依据物质消耗强度的降低并不意味着对资源环境的冲击强度的降低的观点。从新古典经济学、能源经济学及环境经济学角度,对反弹效应内涵进行深层次解析,分析强度指标与总量指标矛盾关系背后的经济学内涵。选取制约我国国民经济发展的重要资源——能源为研究对象,定量分析物质消耗的反弹效应,为预测和分析我国未来经济规模的扩张对生态承载力的影响和演化趋势,提供了翔实的数据支撑。
第四,立足于现阶段我国基本国情,构建我国减物质化情景目标。紧密结合我国建设小康社会的发展目标,应用OECD和Tapio脱钩指标,以宏观层面经济增长与资源环境的“脱钩”为表征,在分析改革开放后我国经济增长与资源环境耦合状况的演变过程,深入探析其间的动态耦合作用机理的基础上,并结合不同国家的所处的经济发展阶段,选取核心环境因子和物质消耗变量,初步构建我国减物质化适宜情景目标,为我国生态文明发展战略目标的制定和相关决策的制定提供可资借鉴的思路。
Dematerialization is a new concept of sustainable development with the purpose of solving the problems of resource shortage and environmental pollution as well as promoting economic growth. The original meaning of dematerialization in the1980s was the reduction of materials'quality or weight, and the micro-products were widely concerned in contrast to the neglect on the environmental impacts imposed by the macro-dematerialization. Especially by the time when eco-efficiency was proposed, technology had been the main measure to improve the material productivity and reduce the intensity of material consumption, and finally realized a "leap growth". But what had been neglected were the dynamic reaction and the resulted rebound effect, and thus the technological revolution changed to an "efficiency trap". Also, there were little concerns about the environmental impacts and economic costs caused by the second input of materials consumption during the process of dematerialization.
This paper started from the concept of dematerialization,1) made a detail analysis from three aspects of environmental impact, function economy and material flow; 2) showed a history changes of the concept from three levels of the micro-level, meso-level and the macro-level. And then a research framework was formed basing on the integration of environmental economics and ecological economics.
The paper continued with the further empirical study on the reaction of economic development and environmental change for twenty years in China, and made some comparisons between China and other countries which are reaching different industrialization process. There were some subsequent researches about the driving effects of social-economic factors on dematerialization, the respond from dematerialization to environmental impacts, the impacts of transaction cost imposed on material recycling use, and the rebound effect of energy consumption of in China.
The paper finally pointed out the factors that affected the aim of dematerialization in China conducted by the theories and decoupling indicators in the above sections, and established the scenes fitting for China's specific national background.
In General, the paper achieved four innovations that extended the former related research.
Firstly, establish a theoretic framework for dematerialization. The paper made a clear concept for dematerialization from multi-dimensions, and the concept was aiming at win-win goal of economic growth and environmental protection and basing on the integrated theories of ecological economics and environmental economics. The research framework for dematerialization was deducted from the review on historical change of dematerialization from macro-material consumption of EKC, the meso-material rebound effects and model of Factorx, and the micro-material collections. The theoretic framework for dematerialization would be a new supplement for the Circular Economy theory.
Secondly, quantitatively analyze the reaction between economic development and resource environment for twenty years in China. The analysis were measured by the decoupling indicator that proposed by OECD and Tapio P., and with which China was divided to several decoupling at different stages. The comparison of China and other five countries of Japan, USA, Germany, Sweden and India about the economic development, final energy consumption and CO2 discharge and the reaction mechanism among the three, would provide some helpful ideas and data base for the construction of conservation culture in China.
Thirdly, identify the factors which affected dematerialization from two aspects of society-economy and environmental impacts; quantitatively analyzed the driving effects of social-economic factors on dematerialization using the LMDI model; showed the essence of rebound effects with the integrated theories of new classical economics, energy economics and environmental economics, and thereby showed the economic meaning behind the contradiction between intensity indicator and quantity indicator; studied the respond reactions between dematerialization and environmental impacts from the view of attribute of material and the whole life cycle. All the work above could avoid the shortcomings of dematerialization by technology and weight, which provided a new perspective and a systematic framework.
Fourthly, establish the scenes of dematerialization fitting for China's specific national background. According to the results of the reaction of economic development and environment, chose the core factors of environmental and material consumption combining the aim of well-off society of China as well, finally established the scenes of dematerialization which provided some helpful ideas for the construction of conservation culture in China.
因此,本文从减物质化概念入手,从环境压力角度、功能经济角度和物质流角度,解析减物质化深层次内涵。综合环境经济学和其他学科的研究,从微观-中观-宏观三个层次,揭示减物质化概念的嬗变,并结合环境经济学和生态经济学经典理论,初步构建了减物质化一般研究框架。以宏观层面经济增长与资源环境压力的“脱钩”为表征,对我国过去20年的经济发展与资源环境变量的耦合关系进行测度,并通过与处于不同发展阶段的国家的比较研究,探析我国经济增长与资源环境变量之间的作用机理。针对目前研究中,对减物质化的经济特征关注相对不足的现状,分析主要社会经济因素对减物质化目标实现的驱动效应。针对减物质化研究中偏重于“重量减量”的情况,从物质自身的属性和全生命周期的视角,研究减物质化与环境压力之间的响应关系。此外,以交易成本为切入点,从经济学角度,分析了交易成本因素对物质循环利用的影响。针对强度指标与总量指标矛盾关系背后的经济学内涵,综合应用新古典经济学、能源经济学和环境经济学解析反弹效应的本质,并以我国能源消耗为例进行实证研究。最后,以减物质化理论为指导,运用脱钩指标体系,综合考虑影响我国减物质化实现的因素,构建符合我国国情的适宜的减物质化情景目标。
相对于现有的研究,本文的创新点主要体现在以下四个方面：
第一,初步构建了清晰的减物质化理论体系。基于生态经济大系统均衡与功能维持的视角,以经济增长与生态环境保护双赢为主线,并结合生态经济学、环境经济学等经典理论,从多维度解析减物质化内涵；从宏观层面的物质消耗的EKC和长期波动理论研究、中观层面的反弹效应与FACTOR X方面研究、微观层面的物质集聚方面研究,多层次系统地梳理减物质化研究进展,揭示减物质化概念的嬗变,初步构建减物质化研究框架,为循环经济发展,特别是在理论层面的探索,做出了有益的补充。
第二,从环境压力与社会经济的研究视角,识别与分析减物质化的影响因素。本研究避免了仅从重量减量和技术特征角度进行减物质化分析局限性,从物质自身的属性出发,关注物质环境属性在特定应用领域内的环境压力的比较与测度问题,解析减物质化过程中物质自身属性与环境压力之间的响应关系；从全生命周期的研究视角关注物质的消耗、流动、减量、循环过程中所引起的环境压力的大小,建立以经济链条为载体的物质流动环境影响分析框架；跳出减物质化研究多着眼于技术方面的局限,从物质流与价值流相融合的视角,对减物质化目标的驱动因素进行全面分解与识别,特别是针对社会经济因素的驱动效应进行深入研究,识别和分析物质在经济过程中流动的影响因素及其作用规律。为区域物质代谢最优路径选择和环境政策的制定提供综合性分析框架,有利于促进学科交叉和融合。
第三,解析强度指标与总量指标的矛盾关系,量化我国物质消耗的反弹效应。依据物质消耗强度的降低并不意味着对资源环境的冲击强度的降低的观点。从新古典经济学、能源经济学及环境经济学角度,对反弹效应内涵进行深层次解析,分析强度指标与总量指标矛盾关系背后的经济学内涵。选取制约我国国民经济发展的重要资源——能源为研究对象,定量分析物质消耗的反弹效应,为预测和分析我国未来经济规模的扩张对生态承载力的影响和演化趋势,提供了翔实的数据支撑。
第四,立足于现阶段我国基本国情,构建我国减物质化情景目标。紧密结合我国建设小康社会的发展目标,应用OECD和Tapio脱钩指标,以宏观层面经济增长与资源环境的“脱钩”为表征,在分析改革开放后我国经济增长与资源环境耦合状况的演变过程,深入探析其间的动态耦合作用机理的基础上,并结合不同国家的所处的经济发展阶段,选取核心环境因子和物质消耗变量,初步构建我国减物质化适宜情景目标,为我国生态文明发展战略目标的制定和相关决策的制定提供可资借鉴的思路。
Dematerialization is a new concept of sustainable development with the purpose of solving the problems of resource shortage and environmental pollution as well as promoting economic growth. The original meaning of dematerialization in the1980s was the reduction of materials'quality or weight, and the micro-products were widely concerned in contrast to the neglect on the environmental impacts imposed by the macro-dematerialization. Especially by the time when eco-efficiency was proposed, technology had been the main measure to improve the material productivity and reduce the intensity of material consumption, and finally realized a "leap growth". But what had been neglected were the dynamic reaction and the resulted rebound effect, and thus the technological revolution changed to an "efficiency trap". Also, there were little concerns about the environmental impacts and economic costs caused by the second input of materials consumption during the process of dematerialization.
This paper started from the concept of dematerialization,1) made a detail analysis from three aspects of environmental impact, function economy and material flow; 2) showed a history changes of the concept from three levels of the micro-level, meso-level and the macro-level. And then a research framework was formed basing on the integration of environmental economics and ecological economics.
The paper continued with the further empirical study on the reaction of economic development and environmental change for twenty years in China, and made some comparisons between China and other countries which are reaching different industrialization process. There were some subsequent researches about the driving effects of social-economic factors on dematerialization, the respond from dematerialization to environmental impacts, the impacts of transaction cost imposed on material recycling use, and the rebound effect of energy consumption of in China.
The paper finally pointed out the factors that affected the aim of dematerialization in China conducted by the theories and decoupling indicators in the above sections, and established the scenes fitting for China's specific national background.
In General, the paper achieved four innovations that extended the former related research.
Firstly, establish a theoretic framework for dematerialization. The paper made a clear concept for dematerialization from multi-dimensions, and the concept was aiming at win-win goal of economic growth and environmental protection and basing on the integrated theories of ecological economics and environmental economics. The research framework for dematerialization was deducted from the review on historical change of dematerialization from macro-material consumption of EKC, the meso-material rebound effects and model of Factorx, and the micro-material collections. The theoretic framework for dematerialization would be a new supplement for the Circular Economy theory.
Secondly, quantitatively analyze the reaction between economic development and resource environment for twenty years in China. The analysis were measured by the decoupling indicator that proposed by OECD and Tapio P., and with which China was divided to several decoupling at different stages. The comparison of China and other five countries of Japan, USA, Germany, Sweden and India about the economic development, final energy consumption and CO2 discharge and the reaction mechanism among the three, would provide some helpful ideas and data base for the construction of conservation culture in China.
Thirdly, identify the factors which affected dematerialization from two aspects of society-economy and environmental impacts; quantitatively analyzed the driving effects of social-economic factors on dematerialization using the LMDI model; showed the essence of rebound effects with the integrated theories of new classical economics, energy economics and environmental economics, and thereby showed the economic meaning behind the contradiction between intensity indicator and quantity indicator; studied the respond reactions between dematerialization and environmental impacts from the view of attribute of material and the whole life cycle. All the work above could avoid the shortcomings of dematerialization by technology and weight, which provided a new perspective and a systematic framework.
Fourthly, establish the scenes of dematerialization fitting for China's specific national background. According to the results of the reaction of economic development and environment, chose the core factors of environmental and material consumption combining the aim of well-off society of China as well, finally established the scenes of dematerialization which provided some helpful ideas for the construction of conservation culture in China.
引文
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