三江平原挠力河流域水文要素变化特征及其影响研究
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摘要
三江平原为中国面积最大的淡水沼泽分布区，随着湿地垦殖活动的加强，地表景观基质由湿地转化为农田，成为国家重要的商品粮基地。改变了地表水循环过程，水资源安全、粮食安全和生态安全问题突出。挠力河位于三江平原腹地，是典型的沼泽性河流，由于流域湿地垦殖等人类活动的影响，流域水文要素发生显著改变，对生态环境产生不利影响。论文基于GIS技术，结合流域水文气象资料及土地利用等数据，综合运用多种统计分析方法、水文模型和变动范围法分析挠力河流域水文要素对土地利用变化的响应，为湿地保护和流域水资源合理配置提供科学依据。主要结论如下：
（1）分析挠力河流域1956~2008年水文气象数据，流域径流、降水、蒸发、气温等要素均发生改变，其中径流变化明显。径流年内分布不均，夏汛流量大于春汛，各站洪峰流量差异明显。流域降水和蒸发减少，气温升高，但趋势不明显，气象要素变化不是径流改变的主要原因。
（2）20世纪50年代以来挠力河流域湿地大面积开垦为耕地，1954~2005年，湿地面积由9453.4km2减少为1837.2km2，减少32.2%；耕地面积由3287.7km2增加为14699.1km2，增加48.2%。通过野外采样与资料分析，求出1954和2005年湿地100cm深土壤饱和含水量为52.7×108m3和10.2×108m3；地表积水量为18.4×108m3和3.7×108m3；求出湿地蓄水量为71.1×108m3和13.9×108m3，湿地蓄水量减少80.5%。
（3）针对挠力河地势地貌特征，率定SWAT模型，得到不同的参数组合。菜咀子站除径流曲线系数、土壤含水量、蒸发系数、河道水力传导系数等参数外，湿地模块参数、地下水参数、径流滞后时间参数等也较敏感。根据水文相似性原理和参数移植法将宝清站率定的SWAT模型应用到挠力河支流—七星河流域。经计算，挠力河上游与七星河流域水文相似度为0.910。根据模拟效果评价指标，年和月径流NS值和R2值均大于0.64，相对误差绝对值均小于9，证明SWAT模型在挠力河流域的适用性。
（4）设定模拟情景，分析湿地和林地转化为耕地对流域径流和蒸发等水文要素的影响。湿地减少38%时，年均径流量减少36.73%，蒸发增加3.39%；湿地全部开垦为耕地时，年均径流量减少49.18%，蒸发增加16.78%。应用挠力河上游分析林地转化为耕地对水文要素的影响，林地减少90.81%，年均径流增加83.48%，蒸发减少0.04%。
（5）根据突变分析，将挠力河流域年径流分为近自然状态河流（1956-1966）和人工干扰状态河流（1967-2005）。应用RVA分别分析宝清站和菜咀子站33个水文指标的变化，求得两站水文综合改变度分别为0.69和0.68，均为高度改变，水文情势的改变对生态环境产生不利影响。
Sanjiang Plain, locating in Heilongjiang province of Northeast China, coveredthe largest area of fresh water marshs of China. With construction of manystate-owned farms, Sanjiang Plain has experienced great agricultural developmentand extensive agricultural land expansion since the1950s. Widespread wetlands inand around the farms has experienced shrinkage and fragmentation. The unbalancebetween ecological water requirements of wetland ecosysterm and agricultural waterrequirements was significant. The Naoli River, locating in the center of the SanjiangPlian, was typical marsh river. However, the hydrological elements of Naoli Riverwatershed has changed significantly because of the firece variation of lands usepattern. The objects of the paper were to analysize the change of hydrologicalelements and its eco-environmental effect induced by the variation of lands usepattern in the Naoli River watershed. The methods used in the paper are the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and the Range of Variability Approach(RVA) based on the land use maps and hydo-meteorological data and the majorconclusions are as follows:
(1) Analysizing the variation of hydo-meteorological elements during1956~2008using mathematical statistical methods in the Naoli River watershed. Theaverage annual runoff was decreased notably and the abrupt change of runoffoccurred in1966. The distribution of seasonal runoff was quite uneven. The floodevents in summer were larger than that in spring. The flood frequency curves weredifferent between the Baoqing station and the Caizuizi station. Moreover, the average annual precipitation and ET all decreased while the temperature increased inthe past sixty years. However, the trends of decreasing or increasing wereunsignificant which suggested that the meteorological elements were not the mainfactors leading to the runoff reduction.
(2) Large scale land reclamation activites have happened and wetlands havebeen shrinking following the farmland expanding since the1950s. The area ofwetlands was9453.4km2in1954and decreaed to1837.2km2in2005. Thepercentage of wetland area occupied with total area of the Naoli River watershedreduced by32.2%. In contrast, the area of farmland was3287.7km2in1954andincreased to14699.1km2in2005. The percentage of the farmland occupied withtotal area of the Naoli River watershed increased by48.2%. Also, the water storagefunctions of wetlands were calculated based on field sampling and lands use maps.In1954and2005, the soil water-holding capacities were52.7×108m3and10.2×108m3within the100cm soil layer, respectively. Since marshes distribute atlow land, average water level is15cm, then the water storage amount were18.4×108m3and3.7×108m3in1954and2005, respectively. Therefore, the total waterstorage capacities of the wetlands were71.1×108m3and13.9×108m3in1954and2005, respectively.
(3) Ascertain the sensitivity parameters of the SWAT model according to thedifferent characteristics of the terrain and natural features in the upper and middle ofthe Naoli River watershed. The sensitivity parameters in Caizuizi station includedCN, SOL_AWC, ESCO, and CH_K2, et al, which were the same as that in Baoqingstation. In addition, the SURLAG, GWQMN, REVAPMN and wetland parameterswere sensitivity parameters as well in Caizuizi station. Because of no or sparsehydro-meteorological data, the calibrated SWAT model was applied to the QixingRiver watershed according to hydrological similarity and model parameterstransplantation method. The similarity degree between the upper Naoli Riverwatershed and the Qixing River watershed was0.910. By the model effectivenesstesting, the values of NS and R2were both larger than0.64, and PBIAS was smallerthan9for calibration and validation periods. Above all, the SWAT model was appropriate to simulate the runoff of the Naoli River watershed.
(4) Making land use change scenarios based on lands use pattern change inorder to analysize the effects of two lands use transformations, that were fromwetland to farmland and from forest to farmland to runoff and ET in the Naoli Riverwatershed. When wetland area decreased by38%, the average annual runoff reducedby36.73%while the average annual ET increased by3.39%. When wetlandtransfromed into farmland totally, the average annual runoff decreased by49.18%corrisponding with the increasing rate of16.78%of ET. Besides, the effects of landuse change between forest and farmland was analysed in the upper Naoli Riverwatershed. The forest decreased by90.81%along with the runoff raisng of83.48%and ET reduction of0.04%.
(5) The annual runoff series in the Naoli River watershed were divided into twostages namely the period of more natural or less altered flow conditions (1956-1966)and the period of more altered conditions (1967-2005) according to theMann-Kendall test. Computing the33IHA (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration)factors in both Baoqing station and Caizuizi station with the RVA (Range ofVariability Approach), and the degrees of comprehensive hydrologic alteration were0.69and0.68, respectivily, indicating high alteration of hydrological regime.
（1）分析挠力河流域1956~2008年水文气象数据，流域径流、降水、蒸发、气温等要素均发生改变，其中径流变化明显。径流年内分布不均，夏汛流量大于春汛，各站洪峰流量差异明显。流域降水和蒸发减少，气温升高，但趋势不明显，气象要素变化不是径流改变的主要原因。
（2）20世纪50年代以来挠力河流域湿地大面积开垦为耕地，1954~2005年，湿地面积由9453.4km2减少为1837.2km2，减少32.2%；耕地面积由3287.7km2增加为14699.1km2，增加48.2%。通过野外采样与资料分析，求出1954和2005年湿地100cm深土壤饱和含水量为52.7×108m3和10.2×108m3；地表积水量为18.4×108m3和3.7×108m3；求出湿地蓄水量为71.1×108m3和13.9×108m3，湿地蓄水量减少80.5%。
（3）针对挠力河地势地貌特征，率定SWAT模型，得到不同的参数组合。菜咀子站除径流曲线系数、土壤含水量、蒸发系数、河道水力传导系数等参数外，湿地模块参数、地下水参数、径流滞后时间参数等也较敏感。根据水文相似性原理和参数移植法将宝清站率定的SWAT模型应用到挠力河支流—七星河流域。经计算，挠力河上游与七星河流域水文相似度为0.910。根据模拟效果评价指标，年和月径流NS值和R2值均大于0.64，相对误差绝对值均小于9，证明SWAT模型在挠力河流域的适用性。
（4）设定模拟情景，分析湿地和林地转化为耕地对流域径流和蒸发等水文要素的影响。湿地减少38%时，年均径流量减少36.73%，蒸发增加3.39%；湿地全部开垦为耕地时，年均径流量减少49.18%，蒸发增加16.78%。应用挠力河上游分析林地转化为耕地对水文要素的影响，林地减少90.81%，年均径流增加83.48%，蒸发减少0.04%。
（5）根据突变分析，将挠力河流域年径流分为近自然状态河流（1956-1966）和人工干扰状态河流（1967-2005）。应用RVA分别分析宝清站和菜咀子站33个水文指标的变化，求得两站水文综合改变度分别为0.69和0.68，均为高度改变，水文情势的改变对生态环境产生不利影响。
Sanjiang Plain, locating in Heilongjiang province of Northeast China, coveredthe largest area of fresh water marshs of China. With construction of manystate-owned farms, Sanjiang Plain has experienced great agricultural developmentand extensive agricultural land expansion since the1950s. Widespread wetlands inand around the farms has experienced shrinkage and fragmentation. The unbalancebetween ecological water requirements of wetland ecosysterm and agricultural waterrequirements was significant. The Naoli River, locating in the center of the SanjiangPlian, was typical marsh river. However, the hydrological elements of Naoli Riverwatershed has changed significantly because of the firece variation of lands usepattern. The objects of the paper were to analysize the change of hydrologicalelements and its eco-environmental effect induced by the variation of lands usepattern in the Naoli River watershed. The methods used in the paper are the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and the Range of Variability Approach(RVA) based on the land use maps and hydo-meteorological data and the majorconclusions are as follows:
(1) Analysizing the variation of hydo-meteorological elements during1956~2008using mathematical statistical methods in the Naoli River watershed. Theaverage annual runoff was decreased notably and the abrupt change of runoffoccurred in1966. The distribution of seasonal runoff was quite uneven. The floodevents in summer were larger than that in spring. The flood frequency curves weredifferent between the Baoqing station and the Caizuizi station. Moreover, the average annual precipitation and ET all decreased while the temperature increased inthe past sixty years. However, the trends of decreasing or increasing wereunsignificant which suggested that the meteorological elements were not the mainfactors leading to the runoff reduction.
(2) Large scale land reclamation activites have happened and wetlands havebeen shrinking following the farmland expanding since the1950s. The area ofwetlands was9453.4km2in1954and decreaed to1837.2km2in2005. Thepercentage of wetland area occupied with total area of the Naoli River watershedreduced by32.2%. In contrast, the area of farmland was3287.7km2in1954andincreased to14699.1km2in2005. The percentage of the farmland occupied withtotal area of the Naoli River watershed increased by48.2%. Also, the water storagefunctions of wetlands were calculated based on field sampling and lands use maps.In1954and2005, the soil water-holding capacities were52.7×108m3and10.2×108m3within the100cm soil layer, respectively. Since marshes distribute atlow land, average water level is15cm, then the water storage amount were18.4×108m3and3.7×108m3in1954and2005, respectively. Therefore, the total waterstorage capacities of the wetlands were71.1×108m3and13.9×108m3in1954and2005, respectively.
(3) Ascertain the sensitivity parameters of the SWAT model according to thedifferent characteristics of the terrain and natural features in the upper and middle ofthe Naoli River watershed. The sensitivity parameters in Caizuizi station includedCN, SOL_AWC, ESCO, and CH_K2, et al, which were the same as that in Baoqingstation. In addition, the SURLAG, GWQMN, REVAPMN and wetland parameterswere sensitivity parameters as well in Caizuizi station. Because of no or sparsehydro-meteorological data, the calibrated SWAT model was applied to the QixingRiver watershed according to hydrological similarity and model parameterstransplantation method. The similarity degree between the upper Naoli Riverwatershed and the Qixing River watershed was0.910. By the model effectivenesstesting, the values of NS and R2were both larger than0.64, and PBIAS was smallerthan9for calibration and validation periods. Above all, the SWAT model was appropriate to simulate the runoff of the Naoli River watershed.
(4) Making land use change scenarios based on lands use pattern change inorder to analysize the effects of two lands use transformations, that were fromwetland to farmland and from forest to farmland to runoff and ET in the Naoli Riverwatershed. When wetland area decreased by38%, the average annual runoff reducedby36.73%while the average annual ET increased by3.39%. When wetlandtransfromed into farmland totally, the average annual runoff decreased by49.18%corrisponding with the increasing rate of16.78%of ET. Besides, the effects of landuse change between forest and farmland was analysed in the upper Naoli Riverwatershed. The forest decreased by90.81%along with the runoff raisng of83.48%and ET reduction of0.04%.
(5) The annual runoff series in the Naoli River watershed were divided into twostages namely the period of more natural or less altered flow conditions (1956-1966)and the period of more altered conditions (1967-2005) according to theMann-Kendall test. Computing the33IHA (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration)factors in both Baoqing station and Caizuizi station with the RVA (Range ofVariability Approach), and the degrees of comprehensive hydrologic alteration were0.69and0.68, respectivily, indicating high alteration of hydrological regime.
引文
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