中国和欧盟低碳发展比较研究
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摘要
气候变化问题已成为人类社会面临的严峻考验之一。这场考验不仅威胁人类的生存和发展,还使得人类面临着来自能源安全性方面的挑战,此外,2009年的全球金融危机促使世界各国寻求新的经济增长点。发展低碳经济作为应对气候变化、协调社会经济发展、保障能源安全与应对气候变化的基本途径,已经逐渐取得世界上越来越多国家的认同。为了应对全球气候变化和确保能源安全,确保在新一轮的国际新秩序建立过程中抢占有利地位,很多发达国家都转变了发展思路,寻求向低碳发展模式转变。
本文从历史演进的角度,以二氧化碳排放强度、人均二氧化碳排放量、二氧化碳排放总量三个指标为切入点,对碳排放历史演进阶段及各阶段的主导性驱动因素进行分析,并在此基础上对中欧当前所处的低碳发展阶段进行判定；接下来又基于脱钩理论对中国和欧盟国家近期经济发展与碳排放脱钩程度进行比较研究,结果如下：
(1)欧盟15国基本上跨越了碳排放强度的倒U型曲线高峰,但是各国碳排放强度高峰出现时的经济发展水平差异很大,各国碳排放强度峰值也存在较大差异。中国的碳排放强度呈现出比较明显的双峰曲线特征,分别于上世纪60年代初、70年代中后期出现碳排放强度峰值,中国碳排放强度在上世纪80年代和90年出现持续下降趋势,但是在21世纪初又出现了反弹,这说明中国尚未完全实现碳排放强度的稳定下降。
(2)一些发达国家如德国、比利时、丹麦、法国、爱尔兰、瑞典、荷兰、英国和美国等基本上跨越了人均碳排放量的高峰,芬兰、希腊、意大利、葡萄牙等国的人均碳排放量发展趋势仍需继续观察,他们目前可能或者正在跨越人均二氧化碳排放量高峰。虽然中国已经实现了碳排放强度高峰的跨越,但是其碳强度下降趋势还不稳定,中国还需要很长的时间才能达到人均碳排放量峰值。
(3)仅有7个欧盟国家(比利时、丹麦、法国、德国、荷兰、瑞典、英国等)跨越了碳排放总量高峰。
(4)通过观察近半个世纪中国、欧盟15国、美国、日本、印度和巴西的碳排放和经济发展的关系可以发现：大部分发达国家都出现过强脱钩,且发达国家脱钩弹性值的变化趋势基本一致；但是3个发展中国家经济增长与碳排放脱钩特征的变化趋势差异较大。发展阶段不同将会对中欧低碳国际定位、低碳战略目标的制定和低碳政策的取向产生不同的影响。
在对中欧低碳发展阶段比较研究的基础上,研究中欧追求的低碳发展国际定位。在低碳发展国际领导力方面,欧盟具有低碳发展的先发优势,而且其还通过一系列举措强化这些优势,尽管近年来随着经济的低迷欧盟低碳发展领导力出现下降,但这并未动摇其领导者地位；目前中国在国际低碳发展领域仍处于追随者的地位,中国已成为世界上最大的温室气体排放国,在领导力方面与欧盟存在很大差距,但是中国仍存在实现低碳发展领导力的潜力和可能性。
国内低碳政策的有效实施是欧盟实现低碳发展国际领导力的重要基础。本文从低碳政策历史演进、低碳发展战略目标与实施路径规划、低碳发展政策实施现状3个方面对中欧低碳发展政策进行比较研究,其中低碳发展政策实施现状比较研究主要从中欧追求低碳发展的财税政策、面向企业的节能政策以及能效政策3个维度展开。研究结论如下：
(1)欧盟应对气候变化、追求低碳发展的政策演进历程也是其政策一体化逐步深化的过程,大致经历了萌芽(20世纪80年代中后期)、发展(20世纪90年代)和基本成熟(2000年以后)三个阶段；相对而言,中国应对气候变化、低碳发展政策的发展速度比较慢,20世纪80年代至2005年是中国应对气候变化、追求低碳发展政策的萌芽阶段,迄今为止中国的低碳发展政策尚处于发展阶段。
(2)中国进行节能减排控制对象和欧盟温室气体减排控制对象非常相似,都是以重点耗能企业作为控制对象,且两者都是以循序渐进的手段逐步扩大控制对象的范围,但是两者具有不同的政策工具选择偏好：欧盟低碳发展政策的主要特点是以市场机制为基础；而中国当前的低碳政策是以政府管制为主,市场机制为辅。
发展阶段不同、政策环境不同,造成中欧低碳发展目标选择的不同。中国在选择低碳发展政策工具时应认真考虑自身当期的经济发展状况、政策环境状况、碳排放发展的阶段特征以及低碳发展目标。基于以上对中国和欧盟低碳发展的定性和定量比较研究,本文提出中国深化低碳发展建议如下：
(1)通过加强国际合作等方式提升中国应对气候变化国际影响力,在全球低碳发展新秩序构建中占据有利地位,为追求气候变化国际领导力奠定基础；
(2)中国应为应对气候变化、实现低碳发展制定中长期目标并对实现目标的的路线图进行规划；
(3)继续使用以管制-命令和制定标准为代表的传统政策工具；
(4)推进基于市场的政策工具：积极探索低碳税收政策；循序渐进的推进碳排放交易市场建设。
Climate change has become one of the severe issues in the world, it is not only threat human survival and development but also challenge energy security.In addition, the global financial crisis in2009prompted the world to seek new economic growth point.The development of low-carbon economy as a way to address climate change, coordination of socio-economic development, energy security and climate change has gradually gained more and more countries' recognition.In order to address global climate change and energy security issues, to ensure seize a favorable position in the process of establishing of a new international order, many developed countries have to adjust their development strategies, try transiting to a low-carbon economy.
This article make qualitative and quantitative comparative study of China and EU in carbon emissions trends, low-carbon development strategies, policy instrument, the means of implementation, low-carbon development situations.
Quantitative studies include:the historical development trends study of China-EU carbon, emissions and study of China-EU low-carbon development current situation based on the decoupling theory, the conclusion of the study are as follows:
(1) EU-15countries are basically crossed the peak of inverted U-shaped curve of carbon intensity, but these countries' carbon intensity peak value and economic development level are quite different in carbon intensity peak period.China's carbon intensity shows an obvious bimodal curve, carbon intensity peak values appeared in the early1960s and the late1970s separately,then China carbon intensity experienced a longer period of decline, it is rebounded in2000, above facts indicating that China still has not fully achieve a steady decline in carbon intensity.
(2) Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States are crossed the per capita carbon emissions peak basically, while Finland, Greece, Italy, Portugal and other countries likely to span the per capita carbon emissions peak, the situation of these countries need to be further observation yet.China still needs more time to achieve across the per capita carbon emissions peak.
(3)Only seven EU countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) crossed the peak of the total carbon emissions.
(4)In past half century, most of the developed countries experienced strong decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth, and these developed countries' decoupling elasticity values show consistent trend, however, developing countries' economic growth and carbon emissions decoupling trends are quite different.
Qualitative comparativestudy of China and the EU are mainly focused on the China and EU low-carbon development international leadership, China and EU low-carbon development policies and measures, the results are as follows:
(1) The course of EU low-carbon policy development is a process of gradual deepening policy integration, experienced sprout stage (the late1980s), development stage (1990s) and mature (after2000) stage; while China's low-carbon policy late start, late1990s is the embryonic stage of China's low-carbon development, China's low-carbon development policy is still in the development stage so far.EU climate change leadership combines structural leadership, intelligent leadership, direction leadership characteristics,after the Copenhagen conference in2009EU climate change leadership shows downward trend.China has the inherent advantage of structured leadership, at the same time has the potential advantages of the intelligent leadership and direction leadership,China should pursue low-carbon development international leadership by strengthen international exchanges and cooperation, establish a positive image of addressing climate change actively.
(2) Control objects of low-carbon development and energy saving in China and greenhouse gas emission reduction in EU is very similar,but they have different policy tools select preferences:China's current low-carbon policy is the main government regulation, supplemented by market mechanisms, while the main features of the EU low-carbon development policy is based on market mechanisms. By observing the low-carbon policy from the EU and China, we think that application of low-carbon development policy instruments should be adapted to the development stages which can be featured as national carbon emissions, carbon intensity, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon emissions trends and so on.
Based on the above qualitative and quantitative research on low-carbon development in China and the European Union, this article presents several proposals for deepening China's low-carbon development are as follows:Continue to use the traditional policy instruments such as control-command instrument and standard-made instrument;take full account of the conditions of application of policy tools, and promote the market-based policy instruments steadily;improve energy efficiency as the core objective of the recent low-carbon policy tools;explore low-carbon tax policy actively;promote carbon trading marketstep by step.
本文从历史演进的角度,以二氧化碳排放强度、人均二氧化碳排放量、二氧化碳排放总量三个指标为切入点,对碳排放历史演进阶段及各阶段的主导性驱动因素进行分析,并在此基础上对中欧当前所处的低碳发展阶段进行判定；接下来又基于脱钩理论对中国和欧盟国家近期经济发展与碳排放脱钩程度进行比较研究,结果如下：
(1)欧盟15国基本上跨越了碳排放强度的倒U型曲线高峰,但是各国碳排放强度高峰出现时的经济发展水平差异很大,各国碳排放强度峰值也存在较大差异。中国的碳排放强度呈现出比较明显的双峰曲线特征,分别于上世纪60年代初、70年代中后期出现碳排放强度峰值,中国碳排放强度在上世纪80年代和90年出现持续下降趋势,但是在21世纪初又出现了反弹,这说明中国尚未完全实现碳排放强度的稳定下降。
(2)一些发达国家如德国、比利时、丹麦、法国、爱尔兰、瑞典、荷兰、英国和美国等基本上跨越了人均碳排放量的高峰,芬兰、希腊、意大利、葡萄牙等国的人均碳排放量发展趋势仍需继续观察,他们目前可能或者正在跨越人均二氧化碳排放量高峰。虽然中国已经实现了碳排放强度高峰的跨越,但是其碳强度下降趋势还不稳定,中国还需要很长的时间才能达到人均碳排放量峰值。
(3)仅有7个欧盟国家(比利时、丹麦、法国、德国、荷兰、瑞典、英国等)跨越了碳排放总量高峰。
(4)通过观察近半个世纪中国、欧盟15国、美国、日本、印度和巴西的碳排放和经济发展的关系可以发现：大部分发达国家都出现过强脱钩,且发达国家脱钩弹性值的变化趋势基本一致；但是3个发展中国家经济增长与碳排放脱钩特征的变化趋势差异较大。发展阶段不同将会对中欧低碳国际定位、低碳战略目标的制定和低碳政策的取向产生不同的影响。
在对中欧低碳发展阶段比较研究的基础上,研究中欧追求的低碳发展国际定位。在低碳发展国际领导力方面,欧盟具有低碳发展的先发优势,而且其还通过一系列举措强化这些优势,尽管近年来随着经济的低迷欧盟低碳发展领导力出现下降,但这并未动摇其领导者地位；目前中国在国际低碳发展领域仍处于追随者的地位,中国已成为世界上最大的温室气体排放国,在领导力方面与欧盟存在很大差距,但是中国仍存在实现低碳发展领导力的潜力和可能性。
国内低碳政策的有效实施是欧盟实现低碳发展国际领导力的重要基础。本文从低碳政策历史演进、低碳发展战略目标与实施路径规划、低碳发展政策实施现状3个方面对中欧低碳发展政策进行比较研究,其中低碳发展政策实施现状比较研究主要从中欧追求低碳发展的财税政策、面向企业的节能政策以及能效政策3个维度展开。研究结论如下：
(1)欧盟应对气候变化、追求低碳发展的政策演进历程也是其政策一体化逐步深化的过程,大致经历了萌芽(20世纪80年代中后期)、发展(20世纪90年代)和基本成熟(2000年以后)三个阶段；相对而言,中国应对气候变化、低碳发展政策的发展速度比较慢,20世纪80年代至2005年是中国应对气候变化、追求低碳发展政策的萌芽阶段,迄今为止中国的低碳发展政策尚处于发展阶段。
(2)中国进行节能减排控制对象和欧盟温室气体减排控制对象非常相似,都是以重点耗能企业作为控制对象,且两者都是以循序渐进的手段逐步扩大控制对象的范围,但是两者具有不同的政策工具选择偏好：欧盟低碳发展政策的主要特点是以市场机制为基础；而中国当前的低碳政策是以政府管制为主,市场机制为辅。
发展阶段不同、政策环境不同,造成中欧低碳发展目标选择的不同。中国在选择低碳发展政策工具时应认真考虑自身当期的经济发展状况、政策环境状况、碳排放发展的阶段特征以及低碳发展目标。基于以上对中国和欧盟低碳发展的定性和定量比较研究,本文提出中国深化低碳发展建议如下：
(1)通过加强国际合作等方式提升中国应对气候变化国际影响力,在全球低碳发展新秩序构建中占据有利地位,为追求气候变化国际领导力奠定基础；
(2)中国应为应对气候变化、实现低碳发展制定中长期目标并对实现目标的的路线图进行规划；
(3)继续使用以管制-命令和制定标准为代表的传统政策工具；
(4)推进基于市场的政策工具：积极探索低碳税收政策；循序渐进的推进碳排放交易市场建设。
Climate change has become one of the severe issues in the world, it is not only threat human survival and development but also challenge energy security.In addition, the global financial crisis in2009prompted the world to seek new economic growth point.The development of low-carbon economy as a way to address climate change, coordination of socio-economic development, energy security and climate change has gradually gained more and more countries' recognition.In order to address global climate change and energy security issues, to ensure seize a favorable position in the process of establishing of a new international order, many developed countries have to adjust their development strategies, try transiting to a low-carbon economy.
This article make qualitative and quantitative comparative study of China and EU in carbon emissions trends, low-carbon development strategies, policy instrument, the means of implementation, low-carbon development situations.
Quantitative studies include:the historical development trends study of China-EU carbon, emissions and study of China-EU low-carbon development current situation based on the decoupling theory, the conclusion of the study are as follows:
(1) EU-15countries are basically crossed the peak of inverted U-shaped curve of carbon intensity, but these countries' carbon intensity peak value and economic development level are quite different in carbon intensity peak period.China's carbon intensity shows an obvious bimodal curve, carbon intensity peak values appeared in the early1960s and the late1970s separately,then China carbon intensity experienced a longer period of decline, it is rebounded in2000, above facts indicating that China still has not fully achieve a steady decline in carbon intensity.
(2) Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States are crossed the per capita carbon emissions peak basically, while Finland, Greece, Italy, Portugal and other countries likely to span the per capita carbon emissions peak, the situation of these countries need to be further observation yet.China still needs more time to achieve across the per capita carbon emissions peak.
(3)Only seven EU countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) crossed the peak of the total carbon emissions.
(4)In past half century, most of the developed countries experienced strong decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth, and these developed countries' decoupling elasticity values show consistent trend, however, developing countries' economic growth and carbon emissions decoupling trends are quite different.
Qualitative comparativestudy of China and the EU are mainly focused on the China and EU low-carbon development international leadership, China and EU low-carbon development policies and measures, the results are as follows:
(1) The course of EU low-carbon policy development is a process of gradual deepening policy integration, experienced sprout stage (the late1980s), development stage (1990s) and mature (after2000) stage; while China's low-carbon policy late start, late1990s is the embryonic stage of China's low-carbon development, China's low-carbon development policy is still in the development stage so far.EU climate change leadership combines structural leadership, intelligent leadership, direction leadership characteristics,after the Copenhagen conference in2009EU climate change leadership shows downward trend.China has the inherent advantage of structured leadership, at the same time has the potential advantages of the intelligent leadership and direction leadership,China should pursue low-carbon development international leadership by strengthen international exchanges and cooperation, establish a positive image of addressing climate change actively.
(2) Control objects of low-carbon development and energy saving in China and greenhouse gas emission reduction in EU is very similar,but they have different policy tools select preferences:China's current low-carbon policy is the main government regulation, supplemented by market mechanisms, while the main features of the EU low-carbon development policy is based on market mechanisms. By observing the low-carbon policy from the EU and China, we think that application of low-carbon development policy instruments should be adapted to the development stages which can be featured as national carbon emissions, carbon intensity, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon emissions trends and so on.
Based on the above qualitative and quantitative research on low-carbon development in China and the European Union, this article presents several proposals for deepening China's low-carbon development are as follows:Continue to use the traditional policy instruments such as control-command instrument and standard-made instrument;take full account of the conditions of application of policy tools, and promote the market-based policy instruments steadily;improve energy efficiency as the core objective of the recent low-carbon policy tools;explore low-carbon tax policy actively;promote carbon trading marketstep by step.
引文
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