城镇化进程中的村镇住宅发展战略研究
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摘要
居住是重要的民生问题,涉及面广、影响面大且政策性强,有必要从国家的宏观角度对住宅发展进行系统的战略指导。与城市地区相比,我国村镇地区住宅发展相对滞后,虽然在数量和质量两个方面均取得了长足进步,但仍存在城乡间不衔接、地区间差距大,以零散自建为主、安全隐患多,资源浪费突出、环境破坏严重,住宅科技应用较少、地方特色消失,住宅政策问题较多、实施效果较差等诸多问题,离全面建成小康社会的要求还有一定差距。
城镇化是现代化建设的历史任务,也是扩大内需的最大潜力所在。在此背景下,本论文依托“十一五”国家科技支撑计划“农村住宅建设支撑技术与产品标准研究”(项目编号：2008BAJ08B16),综合运用区域经济、乡村发展、人居环境、战略管理等相关理论,并采用广义熵指数、系统动力学、聚类分析等模型与方法,对城镇化进程中的村镇住宅发展战略进行系统性的研究,以期对未来村镇住宅发展提供有益的参考。
根据研究主题,本论文做了以下工作：分析了我国村镇住宅发展的现状和存在的问题；对村镇住宅发展的相关理论进行了研究综述；对国内外村镇住宅发展的实践进行了经验总结；从发展条件、宏观环境、内在环境和住宅供给四个方面分析了村镇住宅发展战略逻辑；从城乡统筹和各地区协调两个角度分析了村镇住宅发展战略基点；从战略目标、总体战略和战略支撑三个方面构建了村镇住宅发展战略体系；从开发模式、建设模式和管理模式三个方面研究了村镇住宅发展模式,并进行了实证研究。
通过研究,本论文得出的主要结论包括：
(1)通过对城乡住宅供给结构进行分析,本论文认为我国要通过政策引导和政府投资的方式,提高城乡住宅价值的多样化,调整和改善住宅供给结构,尤其是增加中低价位住宅的供应,完善城乡住房保障制度,以满足不同收入水平居民的居住需求。
(2)通过对城乡住宅统筹发展的因果回路图进行分析,本论文认为我国要通过城市保障房建设来增加住宅供给,或通过宅基地改革、加强培训等措施提高进城农民工收入,以满足其居住需求；同时,还要通过各种措施提高农民收入水平和改善福利待遇,推动村镇住宅发展,使农民留在当地促进村镇的发展。
(3)通过对各地区村镇住宅协调发展进行战略群组划分,本论文提出上海、浙江、江苏等地适度收缩,湖北、湖南等地保持稳步发展,而其他地区都要实施扩张战略；北京、天津、上海等经济发达的地区可采取产业化或集体统建模式,侧重于提高居住品质,而中西部大部分地区需要得到政府补贴,北京、河北、甘肃等人均耕地面积小的地区应采取集中建设的方式,并推进土地复垦。
(4)通过对村镇住宅发展的战略目标进行研究,本论文提出到2020年我国村镇住宅发展要努力达到全面小康社会对农民居住条件的要求,实现建设发展、资源节约、节能环保和安全居住等分类目标,在2015年之前侧重于增加数量、重点整顿,然后重视品质、全面提升,争取到2020年各地区全面达到小康住宅的水平。
(5)通过对村镇住宅发展的政策体系进行研究,本论文认为村镇住宅发展的政策并不孤立,相互间也有影响,要努力完善包括发展规划、土地利用、住宅建设、住宅供应、住宅消费、住宅改造和住宅处置等在内的村镇住宅发展政策体系,发挥政策对发展战略的支撑作用。
(6)通过对村镇住宅发展战略体系进行研究,本论文认为我国村镇住宅发展要推动城镇化和社会主义新农村建设对接,坚持统筹协调和并村扩镇两大核心战略,市场转移、资源整合、科技推动和示范带动四大主体战略,以及农业规模化、村镇非农产业发展、交通发展、社会保障、教育普及、基础设施和服务设施发展六大辅助战略。
(7)通过对村镇住宅发展模式进行研究,本论文认为我国要积极发挥村镇住宅发展的动力机制、协调机制、投入机制和监管机制等的作用,发挥各自区位或资源优势,采取适于自身的开发模式、建设模式和管理模式,形成独具特色的村镇住宅发展模式。
本论文还取得了以下四点创新：
一是应用广义熵指数方法研究住宅价值多样性的变化,构建了城乡住宅价值的广义熵指数模型；二是应用系统动力学方法研究农民工进城导致的城乡住宅需求的变化,构建了城乡住宅统筹发展的因果回路图模型；三是界定村镇住宅发展战略空间,并采用聚类分析方法进行了战略群组划分；四是将村镇住宅发展作为“三农问题”的一个重要抓手,基于农村、农业和农民三维构架构建了村镇住宅发展战略体系。
Living is an important issue which involves wide fields, influences broadly and is policy-oriented. It is necessary to research the strategy of housing development from the national angle. Compared to urban areas, housing development of rural China lags. Though both housing scale and housing quality have made great progress, there are still many problems existing, like the connection of urban-rural housing development is missing, the gaps among different areas are big, the mode of scattered self-built is more popular, safety problems exist, the waste of resources and environmental damage are serious, only a few advanced housing technologies are applied, local features are disappearing, and housing policies are not perfect and implementation effect is low. It still has far to go to reach the demand of the well-off society.
Urbanization is the historic mission of modernization construction and also the biggest potential of expanding domestic demand. Under this background, this dissertation studies the strategy of rural housing development systematically in the process of urbanization, based on the project of research on rural housing construction support technology and product standard (project number:2008BAJ08B16), which comes from state science and technology support program of the eleventh five-year plan. This dissertation aims to offer some useful reference, applying theories such as regional economy, rural development, living environment and strategic management, and using the modes and methods such as generalized entropy index, system dynamics and clustering analysis.
According to the research subject, this dissertation accomplishes the following work: analyzing the current situation and existing problems of housing development in rural China; summarizing the related theories on rural housing development; summarizing the practice experience of rural housing development at home and abroad; analyzing the strategic logic from the aspects as development condition, macro environment and internal environment and housing supply; analyzing the strategic basis from the angles of balancing urban and rural development and regional coordination; constructing the strategy system of rural housing development from the aspects of strategic objectives, overall strategy and strategic support; researching the development pattern of rural housing from the aspects as development mode, construction mode and management mode, and carrying on the empirical research.
This dissertation gets several conclusions as follows:
First, through the analysis of urban-rural housing supply structure, this dissertation believes that China should improve urban-rural housing value diversification by the methods of policy guiding and government investment. China should adjust and improve the housing supply structure, especially increase the supply of low-price housing, to improve the housing security system in both urban and rural areas to satisfy the demands of residents with different income levels.
Second, through the analysis of causal loop diagram of urban-rural housing development as a whole, this dissertation believes that China should increase housing supply by building more affordable housings in urban areas, or improve the income of migrant workers by the methods of land reform or organizing training and so on, in order to meet the living requirements of migrant workers from rural areas. Meanwhile, China should also improve farmers' income level and improve their welfare treatment with a variety of measures, to promote rural housing development. Then the farmers will stay and contribute to the construction of villages and towns.
Third, through the division of strategic groups to promote the coordination of regional rural housing development, this dissertation puts forward that housing development in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and some other places should take the strategy of moderate contraction. Housing development in Hubei, Hunan and some other places should keep steady. The other areas should imply the expansion strategy; Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and other economically developed areas could apply the mode of collective construction in a systematic way or industrialization. These places should focus on improving living quality. And most parts of the Midwest need government subsidies. Beijing, Hebei, Gansu and other places with small per capita arable land area should take the way of centralization and promote land reclamation
Fourth, through the study of the strategic goals of rural housing development, this dissertation puts forward that rural housing development should strive to achieve the demand of a well-off society in an all-round way for farmers' living conditions to2020, realize the classification goals for construction, resources saving, energy conservation and environmental protection and living safety. Rural housing development should focus on increasing quantity and consolidation before2015.After that it should attach great importance to the quality and the comprehensive promotion. All regions should achieve a well-off residential level to2020.
Fifth, through the study the policy system of rural housing development, this dissertation believes that the policies about rural housing development are not isolated. They have effects connected to each other. China should strive to make the policy system perfect, including the policies like development planning, land use, housing construction, housing supply, housing consumption and reform, and housing disposal. Then the policy system will play the support role for the development strategy.
Sixth, through the study of strategy system of rural housing development, this dissertation believes that urbanization and new rural construction should join together. China should adhere to two core strategies including the overall coordination, villages merging and towns' expansion, and four main strategies including market transferring, resources integration, science and technology promotion and demonstration driving, and six assist strategy including promoting extent agriculture, rural non-agricultural industries, traffic development, social security, education popularization, auxiliary infrastructure and service facilities development.
Seventh, through the mode study of rural housing development, this dissertation believes that China should actively give full play to the role of the mechanisms like dynamic mechanism, coordination mechanism, input mechanism and supervision mechanism. All areas should make use of their local resource advantages, to take suitable modes like development mode, construction mode and management mode. They should form the unique mode of their own.
This dissertation also makes four innovations.
First, it applies the method of generalized entropy index to study the diversity changes of housing value, and builds the generalized entropy index model of urban-rural housing value. Second, it uses system dynamics to study the demand changes of urban-rural housing caused by migrant workers, and builds the causal loop diagram model of urban-rural housing development as a whole. Third, it defines the strategy space of rural housing development, and applies the method of clustering analysis to carry on the strategic group division. Fourth, it takes rural housing development as an important gripper of three rural issues, and builds the strategy system under the three-dimensional framework of rural areas, agriculture and farmers.
城镇化是现代化建设的历史任务,也是扩大内需的最大潜力所在。在此背景下,本论文依托“十一五”国家科技支撑计划“农村住宅建设支撑技术与产品标准研究”(项目编号：2008BAJ08B16),综合运用区域经济、乡村发展、人居环境、战略管理等相关理论,并采用广义熵指数、系统动力学、聚类分析等模型与方法,对城镇化进程中的村镇住宅发展战略进行系统性的研究,以期对未来村镇住宅发展提供有益的参考。
根据研究主题,本论文做了以下工作：分析了我国村镇住宅发展的现状和存在的问题；对村镇住宅发展的相关理论进行了研究综述；对国内外村镇住宅发展的实践进行了经验总结；从发展条件、宏观环境、内在环境和住宅供给四个方面分析了村镇住宅发展战略逻辑；从城乡统筹和各地区协调两个角度分析了村镇住宅发展战略基点；从战略目标、总体战略和战略支撑三个方面构建了村镇住宅发展战略体系；从开发模式、建设模式和管理模式三个方面研究了村镇住宅发展模式,并进行了实证研究。
通过研究,本论文得出的主要结论包括：
(1)通过对城乡住宅供给结构进行分析,本论文认为我国要通过政策引导和政府投资的方式,提高城乡住宅价值的多样化,调整和改善住宅供给结构,尤其是增加中低价位住宅的供应,完善城乡住房保障制度,以满足不同收入水平居民的居住需求。
(2)通过对城乡住宅统筹发展的因果回路图进行分析,本论文认为我国要通过城市保障房建设来增加住宅供给,或通过宅基地改革、加强培训等措施提高进城农民工收入,以满足其居住需求；同时,还要通过各种措施提高农民收入水平和改善福利待遇,推动村镇住宅发展,使农民留在当地促进村镇的发展。
(3)通过对各地区村镇住宅协调发展进行战略群组划分,本论文提出上海、浙江、江苏等地适度收缩,湖北、湖南等地保持稳步发展,而其他地区都要实施扩张战略；北京、天津、上海等经济发达的地区可采取产业化或集体统建模式,侧重于提高居住品质,而中西部大部分地区需要得到政府补贴,北京、河北、甘肃等人均耕地面积小的地区应采取集中建设的方式,并推进土地复垦。
(4)通过对村镇住宅发展的战略目标进行研究,本论文提出到2020年我国村镇住宅发展要努力达到全面小康社会对农民居住条件的要求,实现建设发展、资源节约、节能环保和安全居住等分类目标,在2015年之前侧重于增加数量、重点整顿,然后重视品质、全面提升,争取到2020年各地区全面达到小康住宅的水平。
(5)通过对村镇住宅发展的政策体系进行研究,本论文认为村镇住宅发展的政策并不孤立,相互间也有影响,要努力完善包括发展规划、土地利用、住宅建设、住宅供应、住宅消费、住宅改造和住宅处置等在内的村镇住宅发展政策体系,发挥政策对发展战略的支撑作用。
(6)通过对村镇住宅发展战略体系进行研究,本论文认为我国村镇住宅发展要推动城镇化和社会主义新农村建设对接,坚持统筹协调和并村扩镇两大核心战略,市场转移、资源整合、科技推动和示范带动四大主体战略,以及农业规模化、村镇非农产业发展、交通发展、社会保障、教育普及、基础设施和服务设施发展六大辅助战略。
(7)通过对村镇住宅发展模式进行研究,本论文认为我国要积极发挥村镇住宅发展的动力机制、协调机制、投入机制和监管机制等的作用,发挥各自区位或资源优势,采取适于自身的开发模式、建设模式和管理模式,形成独具特色的村镇住宅发展模式。
本论文还取得了以下四点创新：
一是应用广义熵指数方法研究住宅价值多样性的变化,构建了城乡住宅价值的广义熵指数模型；二是应用系统动力学方法研究农民工进城导致的城乡住宅需求的变化,构建了城乡住宅统筹发展的因果回路图模型；三是界定村镇住宅发展战略空间,并采用聚类分析方法进行了战略群组划分；四是将村镇住宅发展作为“三农问题”的一个重要抓手,基于农村、农业和农民三维构架构建了村镇住宅发展战略体系。
Living is an important issue which involves wide fields, influences broadly and is policy-oriented. It is necessary to research the strategy of housing development from the national angle. Compared to urban areas, housing development of rural China lags. Though both housing scale and housing quality have made great progress, there are still many problems existing, like the connection of urban-rural housing development is missing, the gaps among different areas are big, the mode of scattered self-built is more popular, safety problems exist, the waste of resources and environmental damage are serious, only a few advanced housing technologies are applied, local features are disappearing, and housing policies are not perfect and implementation effect is low. It still has far to go to reach the demand of the well-off society.
Urbanization is the historic mission of modernization construction and also the biggest potential of expanding domestic demand. Under this background, this dissertation studies the strategy of rural housing development systematically in the process of urbanization, based on the project of research on rural housing construction support technology and product standard (project number:2008BAJ08B16), which comes from state science and technology support program of the eleventh five-year plan. This dissertation aims to offer some useful reference, applying theories such as regional economy, rural development, living environment and strategic management, and using the modes and methods such as generalized entropy index, system dynamics and clustering analysis.
According to the research subject, this dissertation accomplishes the following work: analyzing the current situation and existing problems of housing development in rural China; summarizing the related theories on rural housing development; summarizing the practice experience of rural housing development at home and abroad; analyzing the strategic logic from the aspects as development condition, macro environment and internal environment and housing supply; analyzing the strategic basis from the angles of balancing urban and rural development and regional coordination; constructing the strategy system of rural housing development from the aspects of strategic objectives, overall strategy and strategic support; researching the development pattern of rural housing from the aspects as development mode, construction mode and management mode, and carrying on the empirical research.
This dissertation gets several conclusions as follows:
First, through the analysis of urban-rural housing supply structure, this dissertation believes that China should improve urban-rural housing value diversification by the methods of policy guiding and government investment. China should adjust and improve the housing supply structure, especially increase the supply of low-price housing, to improve the housing security system in both urban and rural areas to satisfy the demands of residents with different income levels.
Second, through the analysis of causal loop diagram of urban-rural housing development as a whole, this dissertation believes that China should increase housing supply by building more affordable housings in urban areas, or improve the income of migrant workers by the methods of land reform or organizing training and so on, in order to meet the living requirements of migrant workers from rural areas. Meanwhile, China should also improve farmers' income level and improve their welfare treatment with a variety of measures, to promote rural housing development. Then the farmers will stay and contribute to the construction of villages and towns.
Third, through the division of strategic groups to promote the coordination of regional rural housing development, this dissertation puts forward that housing development in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and some other places should take the strategy of moderate contraction. Housing development in Hubei, Hunan and some other places should keep steady. The other areas should imply the expansion strategy; Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and other economically developed areas could apply the mode of collective construction in a systematic way or industrialization. These places should focus on improving living quality. And most parts of the Midwest need government subsidies. Beijing, Hebei, Gansu and other places with small per capita arable land area should take the way of centralization and promote land reclamation
Fourth, through the study of the strategic goals of rural housing development, this dissertation puts forward that rural housing development should strive to achieve the demand of a well-off society in an all-round way for farmers' living conditions to2020, realize the classification goals for construction, resources saving, energy conservation and environmental protection and living safety. Rural housing development should focus on increasing quantity and consolidation before2015.After that it should attach great importance to the quality and the comprehensive promotion. All regions should achieve a well-off residential level to2020.
Fifth, through the study the policy system of rural housing development, this dissertation believes that the policies about rural housing development are not isolated. They have effects connected to each other. China should strive to make the policy system perfect, including the policies like development planning, land use, housing construction, housing supply, housing consumption and reform, and housing disposal. Then the policy system will play the support role for the development strategy.
Sixth, through the study of strategy system of rural housing development, this dissertation believes that urbanization and new rural construction should join together. China should adhere to two core strategies including the overall coordination, villages merging and towns' expansion, and four main strategies including market transferring, resources integration, science and technology promotion and demonstration driving, and six assist strategy including promoting extent agriculture, rural non-agricultural industries, traffic development, social security, education popularization, auxiliary infrastructure and service facilities development.
Seventh, through the mode study of rural housing development, this dissertation believes that China should actively give full play to the role of the mechanisms like dynamic mechanism, coordination mechanism, input mechanism and supervision mechanism. All areas should make use of their local resource advantages, to take suitable modes like development mode, construction mode and management mode. They should form the unique mode of their own.
This dissertation also makes four innovations.
First, it applies the method of generalized entropy index to study the diversity changes of housing value, and builds the generalized entropy index model of urban-rural housing value. Second, it uses system dynamics to study the demand changes of urban-rural housing caused by migrant workers, and builds the causal loop diagram model of urban-rural housing development as a whole. Third, it defines the strategy space of rural housing development, and applies the method of clustering analysis to carry on the strategic group division. Fourth, it takes rural housing development as an important gripper of three rural issues, and builds the strategy system under the three-dimensional framework of rural areas, agriculture and farmers.
引文
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