要素集聚与区域经济增长效应研究
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摘要
经济发展表明，经济活动的地理区位和经济增长之间具有高度相关性。近年来，随着保罗·R·克鲁格曼等创立的新经济地理学理论的深入发展，经济活动的空间分析逐渐在经济文献中崭露头角，成为解释经济增长的重要维度之一。从现实看，经济活动的空间集聚是以各种要素的空间流动为基础的综合表现。要素的空间流动不仅可以优化经济系统的空间结构，更可以通过要素集聚效应来促进区域经济增长，要素的空间集聚是一种内涵式空间优化增长方式。从中国区域发展现状来看，无论是劳动力、金融资本、外商直接投资还是科技等要素资源，在中国各地区都存在着明显的非均衡分布。系统研究各种要素在中国地理空间的集聚形态，分析不同要素集聚效应的空间差异是把握经济增长中空间效应的关键。基于新经济地理学理论的要素集聚将对区域经济增长产生大量的新问题和新经验，实证检验和理论提炼既可以丰富已有研究成果又可以为发展区域经济提供政策借鉴。
文章立足于新经济地理学理论进展，着眼要素的空间集聚效应，从异质性劳动力、金融资本、外商直接投资和科技等方面解读了各种要素空间集聚与区域经济增长之间的关系。结合中国区域空间要素布局的实际情况，采用定性与定量分析相结合、实证与规范分析相结合的经济分析方法分省检验了中国区域空间上各种要素集聚效应。
第一，基于构建普通劳动力集聚和经济增长联立方程，实证分析了普通劳动力集聚效应。研究表明，随着区域劳动力集聚水平的不同，劳动力集聚效应对中国东、中、西三地带的经济增长存在U型关系；经济增长对区域劳动力集聚存在门槛效应，当劳动力集聚水平处于该门槛值以下时经济增长会促进劳动力集聚，反之则会导致拥挤成本增加，阻碍劳动力的集聚。人力资本集聚效应的分析结果表明，人力资本集聚效应和空间溢出效应对中国区域经济增长具有较显著的促进作用，而且随着时间的变化，人力资本集聚效应和空间溢出效应对区域经济增长的作用逐渐凸显，东、中和西部地区人力资本集聚效应存在显著差异；空间溢出效应取决于区域间的距离大小而与人力资本集聚水平的相关性不强，无论是东部、中部还是西部地区，人力资本的空间溢出效应都具有较好的显著性水平。
第二，基于集聚经济和集聚成本的角度分析了金融资本集聚效应形成机理，并运用面板平滑转换模型(PSTR)和面板平滑转换误差修正模型(PSTR-ECM)分析了金融资本集聚效应与区域经济增长存在的非线性长期和短期关系。研究表明，中国的区域金融资本集聚与经济增长之间存在较显著的阈值效应，处于金融资本集聚成熟阶段的东部地区大多处于高机制阶段，其集聚效应显著促进区域经济增长，处于金融资本集聚成长初期阶段的中西部地区则处于低机制阶段，其集聚效应不利于区域经济增长。
第三，基于空间计量经济学模型实证检验了区域FDI形成机理，随后利用面板数据平滑转换模型研究了各区域FDI集聚与经济增长之间的非线性关系。结果表明，中国的区域FDI集聚效应存在显著的截面异质性，表现为FDI集聚水平较高的东部地区大多处于高机制阶段，集聚水平较低的中西部地区则处于由低机制向高机制平滑转换阶段；东部地区较高的FDI集聚水平和技术条件使得集聚经济占据主导地位，形成了正的集聚效应，而中西部地区FDI集聚效应尚不明显。
第四，基于中国科技活动空间非均衡分布的背景，从科技投入和科技产出两方面综合测度了科技集聚水平，并实证分析了区域科技集聚效应及其空间扩散、回流效应。结果表明，中国科技集聚能力存在明显的区域差异，科技集聚能力强的东部地区集聚效应比较明显，而科技实力较弱的中西部地区科技集聚效应尚未显现。科技集聚中心区域之间的科技扩散效应非常明显，科技外围区域间的科技扩散效应表现为极不显著。对比不同区域之间的科技溢出效应发现，科技集聚中心区域对外围区域具有一定程度的扩散效应，而外围区域对中心区域的回流效应并不明显。
第五，结合前文要素集聚效应分析结论，基于新经济地理学相关研究成果，构建了要素集聚理论模型，分析了要素集聚效应的内在生成机制。研究表明，劳动力向某一地区集中会产生市场放大效应，出现需求关联和生产关联；除上述效应以外，人力资本溢出效应在推动区域经济增长方面也发挥着极其重要的作用；金融资本的内生创造决定了金融资本具有规模收益递增效应，进而推动金融资本在某一地区内集中，形成金融资本集聚效应；跨国公司与本地区企业之间存在垂直关联效应，并通过市场区效应和前后向关联效应影响着跨国公司区位选择和经济增长；科技创新部门在科技知识溢出的作用下形成科技集聚，推动着区域经济增长。
本文的创新探索概括为四方面：(1)提出从劳动力异质性的角度分析具有不同劳动技能劳动者的空间布局及其集聚效应差异。对普通劳动力的分析采用了面板数据联立方程组来解决劳动力集聚内生性问题,对人力资本集聚采用空间过滤模型消除人力资本空间关联性的基础上分析了人力资本集聚效应和溢出效应；(2)分析了金融资本、FDI集聚与区域经济增长动态变化过程，从门槛效应的角度运用平滑转换回归模型及其误差修正模型实证检验了不同区域空间内金融资本和FDI集聚效应的截面异质性，分析了各地区金融资本、FDI集聚与区域经济增长之间非线性关系；(3)指出了从科技投入、科技产出等角度测度区域科技集聚能力，并运用空间面板数据计量模型分析了科技集聚效应对本地或相邻区域的集聚效应，为正确认识知识经济时代科技与经济增长之间的关系提供了新的研究视角；(4)建立了基于生产要素空间视角的区域经济增长研究框架。构建了要素集聚理论模型，从异质性劳动力、金融资本、外商直接投资以及科技等可流动生产要素空间非均衡分布的角度，研究生产要素集聚和经济增长之间的相互关系，丰富了经济增长理论和新经济地理学相关研究内容。
The evolution of world economic shows that the geographic location of economic activityand economic growth are highly correlated. However, the geographic location of economicactivity was long ignored in the mainstream of economic growth model. In recent years, with thedevelopment of new economic geography created by Krugman, spatial analysis of economicactivity gradually ho economic literature, if a fog beginning to emerge as an important dimensionto explain economic growth. The concerntration of economic activities are based on the elementsmobility. The elements mobility can not only optimize the spatial structure of economic system,but also promote economic growth. From the current situation of China’s regional development,the elements of labor, financial capital, FDI and technology in China are obviousnon-equilibrium distribution. Therefore, it is the key to systematic study the geographicdistribution of elements and the different effects of elements aggomeration.
Based on the new economic geography theory, the paper explore the relationship ofelements aggomeration and economic growth from heterogeneity labor, financial capital, FDIand technology. Combined with the actual distribution of Chinese elements, the paper useempirical and normative methods to research diffirent effects of elements agglomeration.
Firstly, the paper use labor core-periphery model, human capital spillovers model, financialcapital created model, vertical correlation effects model and innovation model to explain theprocess of elements agglomeration. It shows that labor agglomeration can create market effectsand forward-backward effects; human capital spillovers play a vital role; endogenous creation offinancial capital make the financial capital increasing returns to scale; the vertical correlationbetween multinational companies and technology innovation spillovers promote technologyaggomeration.
Secondly, the paper empirical analyze the normal labor agglomeration effects withsimultaneous equations, and shows that with different level of regional labor agglomeration theeffects of labor agglomeration display U-shaped in east, middle and west region. In addition, thestudy also show that there is threshold effects between economic growth and laboragglomeration, when the concentration levels below the threshold econimic growth will promoteaggomeration, otherwise it will impede the gathering process. The analysis of human capitalagglomeration shows that human capital effects and spatial spillovers can promote regionaleconomic growth. There are significant differences among east, middle and west regions. Spatialspillover effects depend on the spatial distance.
Thirdly, financial agglomeration influence regional economic growth. This paper use panelsmooth transition regression model and error correction model to analyze the effects of financialagglomeration based on the data from1995to2009. The paper shows that there is significantsmooth transition relationship, and the threshold is1.396; the effects of financial agglomerationhave significant cross-section heterogeneity, the eastern areas are in the high regime, central and western regions are in the smooth transition phase; the long-term effects of financialagglomeration and human capital are significant, both the long-term and short term effects ofinvestment in fixed assets are significant, and the opening up policy in different regions shouldtake into account regional characteristics.
Fourth, the relationship between FDI agglomeration and regional growth is nonlinear. Thepaper uses panel smooth transition regression models to empirical analyze the relationship basedon the panel data of Chinese province. The paper shows that there is smooth transitionrelationship between FDI agglomeration and regional growth, and the threshold is0.145; theeffects of FDI agglomeration have significant cross-section heterogeneity, the eastern areas are inthe high regime, central and western regions are in the smooth transition phase; the effects ofFDI agglomeration are the interaction of agglomeration economics and agglomeration cost. Theeastern regions’ effects maintain stable after achieving high regime, and central and westernregions’ effects continue to rise. The conclusion could provide a useful reference inunderstanding the role of FDI agglomeration.
Lastly, the paper measured the degree of technology agglomeration and empirical analysisof technology agglomeration effects and spatial diffusion and back effects. The results show thatthe ability of technology agglomerated is significant difference in China, the stronger technologyagglomeration is, the more obvious the effects are. Spatial diffusion between the technologyagglomeration centers is stronger than peripheral regions. There is significant diffusion thattechnology agglomeration centers influence peripheral regions.
The innovation of this paper consists of four aspects:(1) the establishment framework forregional economic growth from a spatial perspective based on factors of production. Made fromthe perspetive of heterogeneity of labor, financial capital, FDI and technology to study therelationship between economic growth and factor spatial activity;(2) Made the perspetiveof heterogeneity of labor with different labor skills to ananlyze different agglomerationeffects. Using a simultaneous equations to solve the problem of endogeneity oflabor concentration for ordinary labor, and spatial filtering model for humancapital accumulation;(3) Using smooth transition regression model and the error-correctionmodel to analyze the threshold effects of financial capital, and FDI agglomeration;(4) Usingspatial panel econometric model to analyze the technology agglomeration, diffusion andbackward effects.
文章立足于新经济地理学理论进展，着眼要素的空间集聚效应，从异质性劳动力、金融资本、外商直接投资和科技等方面解读了各种要素空间集聚与区域经济增长之间的关系。结合中国区域空间要素布局的实际情况，采用定性与定量分析相结合、实证与规范分析相结合的经济分析方法分省检验了中国区域空间上各种要素集聚效应。
第一，基于构建普通劳动力集聚和经济增长联立方程，实证分析了普通劳动力集聚效应。研究表明，随着区域劳动力集聚水平的不同，劳动力集聚效应对中国东、中、西三地带的经济增长存在U型关系；经济增长对区域劳动力集聚存在门槛效应，当劳动力集聚水平处于该门槛值以下时经济增长会促进劳动力集聚，反之则会导致拥挤成本增加，阻碍劳动力的集聚。人力资本集聚效应的分析结果表明，人力资本集聚效应和空间溢出效应对中国区域经济增长具有较显著的促进作用，而且随着时间的变化，人力资本集聚效应和空间溢出效应对区域经济增长的作用逐渐凸显，东、中和西部地区人力资本集聚效应存在显著差异；空间溢出效应取决于区域间的距离大小而与人力资本集聚水平的相关性不强，无论是东部、中部还是西部地区，人力资本的空间溢出效应都具有较好的显著性水平。
第二，基于集聚经济和集聚成本的角度分析了金融资本集聚效应形成机理，并运用面板平滑转换模型(PSTR)和面板平滑转换误差修正模型(PSTR-ECM)分析了金融资本集聚效应与区域经济增长存在的非线性长期和短期关系。研究表明，中国的区域金融资本集聚与经济增长之间存在较显著的阈值效应，处于金融资本集聚成熟阶段的东部地区大多处于高机制阶段，其集聚效应显著促进区域经济增长，处于金融资本集聚成长初期阶段的中西部地区则处于低机制阶段，其集聚效应不利于区域经济增长。
第三，基于空间计量经济学模型实证检验了区域FDI形成机理，随后利用面板数据平滑转换模型研究了各区域FDI集聚与经济增长之间的非线性关系。结果表明，中国的区域FDI集聚效应存在显著的截面异质性，表现为FDI集聚水平较高的东部地区大多处于高机制阶段，集聚水平较低的中西部地区则处于由低机制向高机制平滑转换阶段；东部地区较高的FDI集聚水平和技术条件使得集聚经济占据主导地位，形成了正的集聚效应，而中西部地区FDI集聚效应尚不明显。
第四，基于中国科技活动空间非均衡分布的背景，从科技投入和科技产出两方面综合测度了科技集聚水平，并实证分析了区域科技集聚效应及其空间扩散、回流效应。结果表明，中国科技集聚能力存在明显的区域差异，科技集聚能力强的东部地区集聚效应比较明显，而科技实力较弱的中西部地区科技集聚效应尚未显现。科技集聚中心区域之间的科技扩散效应非常明显，科技外围区域间的科技扩散效应表现为极不显著。对比不同区域之间的科技溢出效应发现，科技集聚中心区域对外围区域具有一定程度的扩散效应，而外围区域对中心区域的回流效应并不明显。
第五，结合前文要素集聚效应分析结论，基于新经济地理学相关研究成果，构建了要素集聚理论模型，分析了要素集聚效应的内在生成机制。研究表明，劳动力向某一地区集中会产生市场放大效应，出现需求关联和生产关联；除上述效应以外，人力资本溢出效应在推动区域经济增长方面也发挥着极其重要的作用；金融资本的内生创造决定了金融资本具有规模收益递增效应，进而推动金融资本在某一地区内集中，形成金融资本集聚效应；跨国公司与本地区企业之间存在垂直关联效应，并通过市场区效应和前后向关联效应影响着跨国公司区位选择和经济增长；科技创新部门在科技知识溢出的作用下形成科技集聚，推动着区域经济增长。
本文的创新探索概括为四方面：(1)提出从劳动力异质性的角度分析具有不同劳动技能劳动者的空间布局及其集聚效应差异。对普通劳动力的分析采用了面板数据联立方程组来解决劳动力集聚内生性问题,对人力资本集聚采用空间过滤模型消除人力资本空间关联性的基础上分析了人力资本集聚效应和溢出效应；(2)分析了金融资本、FDI集聚与区域经济增长动态变化过程，从门槛效应的角度运用平滑转换回归模型及其误差修正模型实证检验了不同区域空间内金融资本和FDI集聚效应的截面异质性，分析了各地区金融资本、FDI集聚与区域经济增长之间非线性关系；(3)指出了从科技投入、科技产出等角度测度区域科技集聚能力，并运用空间面板数据计量模型分析了科技集聚效应对本地或相邻区域的集聚效应，为正确认识知识经济时代科技与经济增长之间的关系提供了新的研究视角；(4)建立了基于生产要素空间视角的区域经济增长研究框架。构建了要素集聚理论模型，从异质性劳动力、金融资本、外商直接投资以及科技等可流动生产要素空间非均衡分布的角度，研究生产要素集聚和经济增长之间的相互关系，丰富了经济增长理论和新经济地理学相关研究内容。
The evolution of world economic shows that the geographic location of economic activityand economic growth are highly correlated. However, the geographic location of economicactivity was long ignored in the mainstream of economic growth model. In recent years, with thedevelopment of new economic geography created by Krugman, spatial analysis of economicactivity gradually ho economic literature, if a fog beginning to emerge as an important dimensionto explain economic growth. The concerntration of economic activities are based on the elementsmobility. The elements mobility can not only optimize the spatial structure of economic system,but also promote economic growth. From the current situation of China’s regional development,the elements of labor, financial capital, FDI and technology in China are obviousnon-equilibrium distribution. Therefore, it is the key to systematic study the geographicdistribution of elements and the different effects of elements aggomeration.
Based on the new economic geography theory, the paper explore the relationship ofelements aggomeration and economic growth from heterogeneity labor, financial capital, FDIand technology. Combined with the actual distribution of Chinese elements, the paper useempirical and normative methods to research diffirent effects of elements agglomeration.
Firstly, the paper use labor core-periphery model, human capital spillovers model, financialcapital created model, vertical correlation effects model and innovation model to explain theprocess of elements agglomeration. It shows that labor agglomeration can create market effectsand forward-backward effects; human capital spillovers play a vital role; endogenous creation offinancial capital make the financial capital increasing returns to scale; the vertical correlationbetween multinational companies and technology innovation spillovers promote technologyaggomeration.
Secondly, the paper empirical analyze the normal labor agglomeration effects withsimultaneous equations, and shows that with different level of regional labor agglomeration theeffects of labor agglomeration display U-shaped in east, middle and west region. In addition, thestudy also show that there is threshold effects between economic growth and laboragglomeration, when the concentration levels below the threshold econimic growth will promoteaggomeration, otherwise it will impede the gathering process. The analysis of human capitalagglomeration shows that human capital effects and spatial spillovers can promote regionaleconomic growth. There are significant differences among east, middle and west regions. Spatialspillover effects depend on the spatial distance.
Thirdly, financial agglomeration influence regional economic growth. This paper use panelsmooth transition regression model and error correction model to analyze the effects of financialagglomeration based on the data from1995to2009. The paper shows that there is significantsmooth transition relationship, and the threshold is1.396; the effects of financial agglomerationhave significant cross-section heterogeneity, the eastern areas are in the high regime, central and western regions are in the smooth transition phase; the long-term effects of financialagglomeration and human capital are significant, both the long-term and short term effects ofinvestment in fixed assets are significant, and the opening up policy in different regions shouldtake into account regional characteristics.
Fourth, the relationship between FDI agglomeration and regional growth is nonlinear. Thepaper uses panel smooth transition regression models to empirical analyze the relationship basedon the panel data of Chinese province. The paper shows that there is smooth transitionrelationship between FDI agglomeration and regional growth, and the threshold is0.145; theeffects of FDI agglomeration have significant cross-section heterogeneity, the eastern areas are inthe high regime, central and western regions are in the smooth transition phase; the effects ofFDI agglomeration are the interaction of agglomeration economics and agglomeration cost. Theeastern regions’ effects maintain stable after achieving high regime, and central and westernregions’ effects continue to rise. The conclusion could provide a useful reference inunderstanding the role of FDI agglomeration.
Lastly, the paper measured the degree of technology agglomeration and empirical analysisof technology agglomeration effects and spatial diffusion and back effects. The results show thatthe ability of technology agglomerated is significant difference in China, the stronger technologyagglomeration is, the more obvious the effects are. Spatial diffusion between the technologyagglomeration centers is stronger than peripheral regions. There is significant diffusion thattechnology agglomeration centers influence peripheral regions.
The innovation of this paper consists of four aspects:(1) the establishment framework forregional economic growth from a spatial perspective based on factors of production. Made fromthe perspetive of heterogeneity of labor, financial capital, FDI and technology to study therelationship between economic growth and factor spatial activity;(2) Made the perspetiveof heterogeneity of labor with different labor skills to ananlyze different agglomerationeffects. Using a simultaneous equations to solve the problem of endogeneity oflabor concentration for ordinary labor, and spatial filtering model for humancapital accumulation;(3) Using smooth transition regression model and the error-correctionmodel to analyze the threshold effects of financial capital, and FDI agglomeration;(4) Usingspatial panel econometric model to analyze the technology agglomeration, diffusion andbackward effects.
引文
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