FDI与产业结构优化升级的相关性研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,外商直接投资大量涌入促进了我国经济迅速发展和产业结构升级。但90年代中期以来,随着我国经济从短缺经济向过剩经济的转变,虽然外商直接投资对我国经济发展的推动作用依然强劲,但对我国产业结构的优化效应却开始弱化,其负面效应正逐步显现。目前,经济全球化浪潮的影响日益显现,我国与外部经济的联系更加紧密,外资对我国经济发展的影响力度进一步增强,我国利用外资促进经济发展、产业结构调整已到了一个关键时期。如何在全球化的浪潮中趋利避害,在发挥外资对我国经济的积极推动作用的同时,尽量减少外资的负面影响,是我们当前所面临的一个重大的现实问题。“十二五”期间,我国将加快经济转型,大力推进“转方式、调结构”,促进经济平稳较快发展。要加快转方式、调结构,坚持走中国特色新型工业化道路,就必须培育发展战略性新兴产业,加快发展服务业,促进一二三产业协调发展。但金融危机后,国际投资环境普遍低迷,如何引进外商直接投资改变本国的产业结构,又怎样合理利用外资发展战略性新兴产业,也是目前亟待解决的重要问题。
本文在准确把握当前我国经济发展面临的形势基础上,按照“理论阐述——FDI与产业结构优化升级的机理分析——FDI与产业结构调整现状分析——FDI与产业结构优化的实证分析——国际经验借鉴”这条主线,将国际直接投资理论与产业调整理论结合起来,采用理论与实证分析相结合的方法对FDI与产业结构优化升级的相关性做了系统分析,取得了一定研究成果。具体来讲,主要研究内容有三部分：第一,FDI与产业结构优化升级的机理分析。本部分首先在分析产业结构优化升级内涵的基础上认为产业结构优化的机理可以描述为“调整影响产业结构的因素——产业结构得到优化——产业结构优化的各种效应发挥作用——国民经济持续快速发展”这样一个过程,同时指出产业结构优化的主要内容为产业结构的合理化和产业结构的高度化。其次,构建了产业结构优化升级测度指标。由于产业需求结构决定了产业供给结构,而国民收入由产业供给及其结构所支撑,故产业结构升级与经济增长存在一一对应的路径,因此产业结构升级可由经济增长来测度。最后,从关联效应、传导机制等方面分析了FDI影响东道国产业结构优化升级的机理,认为FDI的引入和其带动的市场竞争以及政府引导规范可以分别从高度化、高效化、合理化三个方面来提升产业结构；第二,FDI与我国产业结构优化升级相关性的实证分析。本部分借助于单位根(ADF)检验、向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应分析、协整检验、误差修正模型(VEC)和格兰杰因果检验等计量方法实证分析了我国各次产业实际利用外商直接投资对我国三次产业结构的影响,同时根据构建的产业结构升级的测度指标体系实证分析了我国实际利用外商直接投资和产业结构升级之间的关系。研究发现各产业外商直接投资对本产业经济增长的影响存在差异,FDI对产业结构的影响具有一定滞后性,外商直接投资能够有效地促进产业结构优化升级；第三,FDI促进产业结构优化升级的东盟经验借鉴。由于东盟国家引进外资的结构变化与我国引用外商直接投资结构相似,即东盟国家在20世纪70年代外资在第二产业中的比重有所增大,20世纪90年代后第三产业的外商直接投资规模增大。因此,本部分主要是对东盟国家利用外资促进产业结构优化升级效应的成功经验进行简要分析与概括,并通过评述,提取对中国有利可行的实践经验。
本文在已有研究成果的基础上做了以下突破：第一,深入分析了外商直接投资对我国产业结构的影响。本文在定性分析外商直接投资和我国产业结构现状的基础上通过计量模型实证分析了外商直接投资对我国各次产业结构的影响,得出了有意义的结论；第二,深入分析了外商直接投资对我国产业结构优化升级的影响。本文从关联效应、传导机制等方面分析了FDI影响东道国产业结构优化升级的机理,同时将后金融危机时代下一国产业结构优化规律与我国特定情况进行结合,构建了产业结构优化升级的测度指标,实证分析了FDI对我国产业结构优化升级的作用机制以及作用效果；第三,借鉴国际经验提出了创新性的政策建议。本文基于制度建设层面,给出了我国外资产业政策有效性的建议,并在此基础上提出我国利用外资促进产业结构优化的战略性转型问题,这种研究具有一定的创新意义。
本文研究发现从我国现阶段国情来看,FDI能够直接推动我国产业结构的优化升级和经济增长,具体如下：外商直接投资推动了我国产业结构由劳动、资源密集型产业向资本、技术密集型产业的升级；各产业增长主要得益于经济增长的惯性,外商直接投资对本产业经济增长的影响效果存在差异：不同产业实际利用外商直接投资对本产业的影响具有滞后效应,即短期内第一产业、第三产业利用外资会推动第一产业、第三产业增长,而外商直接投资对第二产业增长的拉动作用需要一个很长的阶段才能实现；从吸收外资能力来看,第三产业和第二产业吸收外资的能力较强；我国产业结构升级系数R和实际利用外商直接投资FDI存在双向格兰杰因果关系；实际利用外商直接投资在短期内对我国产业结构优化升级具有较大影响,但长期内影响作用有限。
Since China's reform and opening up, lots of FDI flooding into China have promoted the development of economy and the upgrading of industrial structure. But since the mid90:s, with the transformation of China's economy from the shortage economy to superfluous economy, although the promotion effect of foreign direct investment on our country economy remains strong, the optimization effect on Chinese industrial structure are weakening, along with its negative effects. At present, under the influence of economic globalization, it is critical time that we use foreign capital to promote economic development and adjust industrial structure, for our country is more closed to the external economy, and the degree of foreign investment's influence on China's economy is gradually enhancing. It is a major practical problem we are facing that how to avoid kill in the wave of globalization, use foreign capital to the fullest and minimize its negative impact. During the next National Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, China will speed up economic transition, promote the "mode transformation and structure adjustment "and make the stable and rapid economic development. To speed up the transformation, adjust the structure and adhere to the new path of industrialization with Chinese characteristics, we must foster the development of strategic emerging industries, accelerate the development of service industry and promote the coordinated development of the first second and tertiary industry. But after the financial crisis, the international investment environment is generally at the low level. So how to attract foreign direct investment to change our industry structure and how to use foreign capital rationally to develop strategic emerging industries are important problems which should be solved at present.
According to the main line'theoretical explanation-the mechanism analysis of FDI and the upgrading of the industrial structure--the analysis of the adjustment of industrial structure--the empirical analysis of FDI and industrial structure optimization international experience", the paper has an accurate grasp of the situation based on the current China's economic development. Combining the theory of International direct investment and the theory of industrial adjustment, this paper uses theoretical and empirical analysis and analyses the correlation of FDI and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure systemically, and achieve certain results. In details, the main research contents include three parts:firstly, the mechanism analysis of FDI and the industrial structure optimization and upgrading. This part first describes the mechanism as a process of 'the influence factor of the industrial structure adjustment--the optimization of the industrial structure--various effects of optimization of the industrial structure acting--sustainable and rapid economic development' on the basis of analyzing the industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and points out that the main content of industrial structure optimization is the height and rationalization of industrial structure. Secondly, construct the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure measure index. The industrial structure of demand determines the industrial structure of supply, and the national income is supported by industry supply and its structure. So there is one to one relationship between the upgrading of the industrial structure and economic growth, and the upgrading of the industrial structure can be measured by economic growth. Finally, the paper analyses the mechanism of how FDI affects the host country's industrial structure optimization and upgrading from the aspects of correlation effect, transmission mechanism and etc, and considers the introduce of FDI to drive market competition and government guidance norms can be improved by the following aspects--the height, efficiency and rationalization to upgrade the industrial structure. Secondly, the empirical analysis of correlation between FDI and the optimization of our country's industrial structure upgrading. In this part, with the help of the empirical measurement method such as unit root (ADF) test, vector autoregressive model (VAR), impulse response analysis, Co-integration test, vector error correction model (VEC) and Granger causes and consequences analysis and etc, the paper analyses the influence of China's various industries of the actual use of foreign direct investment on China's three industrial structure. At the same time, according to the empirical measurement index system of upgrading industrial structure, the paper analyses the relationship between the actual use of foreign direct investment and the upgrading of the industrial structure of our country. The study finds the foreign direct investment have different effects on the economic growth of different industries. The impact of FDI on industrial structure has a certain lag. FDI can effectively promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Thirdly, draw on the experience of ASEAN to make FDI to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Due to the similar structure between ASEAN countries' foreign capital and China's foreign direct investment, in ASEAN countries, the proportion of foreign investment in second industries increases in1970s. Foreign direct investment scale in the tertiary industry increases in1990s. Therefore, this part mainly analyses and summarizes the successful experience of the ASEAN countries utilizing foreign capital to promote industrial structure optimization and upgrading. And through the review, it extracts practical experience to China.
This paper makes the following exploration breakthrough on the basis of the existing research results. Firstly, it analyses the impact of foreign direct investment on our industrial structure deeply. Based on the qualitative analysis of foreign direct investment and current situation of China's industrial structure, we establish empirical econometric model to analyze the impact of foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure and draw some meaningful conclusions. Secondly, it analyses the impact of foreign direct investment on the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure. This paper analyses the mechanism how FDI affects the optimization and upgrading industrial structure of the host country from the aspects of correlation effect, transmission mechanism and etc. At the same time, it combines the developing rule of one country's industrial structure optimization affected by the financial crisis and China's specific situation, constructs the measure index about the industrial structure optimization and upgrading and analyses the effect and mechanism of the FDI on the optimization and upgrading of industry of our country structure empirically. Thirdly, it puts forward innovative political proposals drawing on international experience. In this paper, based on the level of system construction, it gives the advice of the effectiveness of our foreign investment policy. And on this basis it draws a strategic transformation question about how to use foreign investment to promote the optimization of the industrial structure. So this study has certain innovation significance.
This study finds that considering our current national conditions, FDI can directly promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure and economic growth. In details, foreign direct investment promotes the upgrading of our industrial structure form labor and resource intensive industries to capital and technology intensive industries.Each industrial growth mainly benefits from the inertia of economic growth. The effects of foreign direct investment on the economic growth of the industries are different. The actual use of foreign direct investment in different industries has lagging effect on its industry, which means the use of foreign capital will promote the growth of the first and tertiary industries in the short term. While the pulling effect of foreign direct investment growth on the second industry needs a long period to realize. As for the ability of attracting foreign investment, the tertiary industry and secondary industries have better ability to attracting foreign investment. There are two-way Granger causalities between the upgrading of China's industrial structure coefficient R and the actual utilization of foreign direct investment (FDI). The actual use of foreign direct investment in the short term has great influence on the optimization and upgrading of our industrial structure, while limited influence on the long term.
本文在准确把握当前我国经济发展面临的形势基础上,按照“理论阐述——FDI与产业结构优化升级的机理分析——FDI与产业结构调整现状分析——FDI与产业结构优化的实证分析——国际经验借鉴”这条主线,将国际直接投资理论与产业调整理论结合起来,采用理论与实证分析相结合的方法对FDI与产业结构优化升级的相关性做了系统分析,取得了一定研究成果。具体来讲,主要研究内容有三部分：第一,FDI与产业结构优化升级的机理分析。本部分首先在分析产业结构优化升级内涵的基础上认为产业结构优化的机理可以描述为“调整影响产业结构的因素——产业结构得到优化——产业结构优化的各种效应发挥作用——国民经济持续快速发展”这样一个过程,同时指出产业结构优化的主要内容为产业结构的合理化和产业结构的高度化。其次,构建了产业结构优化升级测度指标。由于产业需求结构决定了产业供给结构,而国民收入由产业供给及其结构所支撑,故产业结构升级与经济增长存在一一对应的路径,因此产业结构升级可由经济增长来测度。最后,从关联效应、传导机制等方面分析了FDI影响东道国产业结构优化升级的机理,认为FDI的引入和其带动的市场竞争以及政府引导规范可以分别从高度化、高效化、合理化三个方面来提升产业结构；第二,FDI与我国产业结构优化升级相关性的实证分析。本部分借助于单位根(ADF)检验、向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应分析、协整检验、误差修正模型(VEC)和格兰杰因果检验等计量方法实证分析了我国各次产业实际利用外商直接投资对我国三次产业结构的影响,同时根据构建的产业结构升级的测度指标体系实证分析了我国实际利用外商直接投资和产业结构升级之间的关系。研究发现各产业外商直接投资对本产业经济增长的影响存在差异,FDI对产业结构的影响具有一定滞后性,外商直接投资能够有效地促进产业结构优化升级；第三,FDI促进产业结构优化升级的东盟经验借鉴。由于东盟国家引进外资的结构变化与我国引用外商直接投资结构相似,即东盟国家在20世纪70年代外资在第二产业中的比重有所增大,20世纪90年代后第三产业的外商直接投资规模增大。因此,本部分主要是对东盟国家利用外资促进产业结构优化升级效应的成功经验进行简要分析与概括,并通过评述,提取对中国有利可行的实践经验。
本文在已有研究成果的基础上做了以下突破：第一,深入分析了外商直接投资对我国产业结构的影响。本文在定性分析外商直接投资和我国产业结构现状的基础上通过计量模型实证分析了外商直接投资对我国各次产业结构的影响,得出了有意义的结论；第二,深入分析了外商直接投资对我国产业结构优化升级的影响。本文从关联效应、传导机制等方面分析了FDI影响东道国产业结构优化升级的机理,同时将后金融危机时代下一国产业结构优化规律与我国特定情况进行结合,构建了产业结构优化升级的测度指标,实证分析了FDI对我国产业结构优化升级的作用机制以及作用效果；第三,借鉴国际经验提出了创新性的政策建议。本文基于制度建设层面,给出了我国外资产业政策有效性的建议,并在此基础上提出我国利用外资促进产业结构优化的战略性转型问题,这种研究具有一定的创新意义。
本文研究发现从我国现阶段国情来看,FDI能够直接推动我国产业结构的优化升级和经济增长,具体如下：外商直接投资推动了我国产业结构由劳动、资源密集型产业向资本、技术密集型产业的升级；各产业增长主要得益于经济增长的惯性,外商直接投资对本产业经济增长的影响效果存在差异：不同产业实际利用外商直接投资对本产业的影响具有滞后效应,即短期内第一产业、第三产业利用外资会推动第一产业、第三产业增长,而外商直接投资对第二产业增长的拉动作用需要一个很长的阶段才能实现；从吸收外资能力来看,第三产业和第二产业吸收外资的能力较强；我国产业结构升级系数R和实际利用外商直接投资FDI存在双向格兰杰因果关系；实际利用外商直接投资在短期内对我国产业结构优化升级具有较大影响,但长期内影响作用有限。
Since China's reform and opening up, lots of FDI flooding into China have promoted the development of economy and the upgrading of industrial structure. But since the mid90:s, with the transformation of China's economy from the shortage economy to superfluous economy, although the promotion effect of foreign direct investment on our country economy remains strong, the optimization effect on Chinese industrial structure are weakening, along with its negative effects. At present, under the influence of economic globalization, it is critical time that we use foreign capital to promote economic development and adjust industrial structure, for our country is more closed to the external economy, and the degree of foreign investment's influence on China's economy is gradually enhancing. It is a major practical problem we are facing that how to avoid kill in the wave of globalization, use foreign capital to the fullest and minimize its negative impact. During the next National Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, China will speed up economic transition, promote the "mode transformation and structure adjustment "and make the stable and rapid economic development. To speed up the transformation, adjust the structure and adhere to the new path of industrialization with Chinese characteristics, we must foster the development of strategic emerging industries, accelerate the development of service industry and promote the coordinated development of the first second and tertiary industry. But after the financial crisis, the international investment environment is generally at the low level. So how to attract foreign direct investment to change our industry structure and how to use foreign capital rationally to develop strategic emerging industries are important problems which should be solved at present.
According to the main line'theoretical explanation-the mechanism analysis of FDI and the upgrading of the industrial structure--the analysis of the adjustment of industrial structure--the empirical analysis of FDI and industrial structure optimization international experience", the paper has an accurate grasp of the situation based on the current China's economic development. Combining the theory of International direct investment and the theory of industrial adjustment, this paper uses theoretical and empirical analysis and analyses the correlation of FDI and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure systemically, and achieve certain results. In details, the main research contents include three parts:firstly, the mechanism analysis of FDI and the industrial structure optimization and upgrading. This part first describes the mechanism as a process of 'the influence factor of the industrial structure adjustment--the optimization of the industrial structure--various effects of optimization of the industrial structure acting--sustainable and rapid economic development' on the basis of analyzing the industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and points out that the main content of industrial structure optimization is the height and rationalization of industrial structure. Secondly, construct the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure measure index. The industrial structure of demand determines the industrial structure of supply, and the national income is supported by industry supply and its structure. So there is one to one relationship between the upgrading of the industrial structure and economic growth, and the upgrading of the industrial structure can be measured by economic growth. Finally, the paper analyses the mechanism of how FDI affects the host country's industrial structure optimization and upgrading from the aspects of correlation effect, transmission mechanism and etc, and considers the introduce of FDI to drive market competition and government guidance norms can be improved by the following aspects--the height, efficiency and rationalization to upgrade the industrial structure. Secondly, the empirical analysis of correlation between FDI and the optimization of our country's industrial structure upgrading. In this part, with the help of the empirical measurement method such as unit root (ADF) test, vector autoregressive model (VAR), impulse response analysis, Co-integration test, vector error correction model (VEC) and Granger causes and consequences analysis and etc, the paper analyses the influence of China's various industries of the actual use of foreign direct investment on China's three industrial structure. At the same time, according to the empirical measurement index system of upgrading industrial structure, the paper analyses the relationship between the actual use of foreign direct investment and the upgrading of the industrial structure of our country. The study finds the foreign direct investment have different effects on the economic growth of different industries. The impact of FDI on industrial structure has a certain lag. FDI can effectively promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Thirdly, draw on the experience of ASEAN to make FDI to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Due to the similar structure between ASEAN countries' foreign capital and China's foreign direct investment, in ASEAN countries, the proportion of foreign investment in second industries increases in1970s. Foreign direct investment scale in the tertiary industry increases in1990s. Therefore, this part mainly analyses and summarizes the successful experience of the ASEAN countries utilizing foreign capital to promote industrial structure optimization and upgrading. And through the review, it extracts practical experience to China.
This paper makes the following exploration breakthrough on the basis of the existing research results. Firstly, it analyses the impact of foreign direct investment on our industrial structure deeply. Based on the qualitative analysis of foreign direct investment and current situation of China's industrial structure, we establish empirical econometric model to analyze the impact of foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure and draw some meaningful conclusions. Secondly, it analyses the impact of foreign direct investment on the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure. This paper analyses the mechanism how FDI affects the optimization and upgrading industrial structure of the host country from the aspects of correlation effect, transmission mechanism and etc. At the same time, it combines the developing rule of one country's industrial structure optimization affected by the financial crisis and China's specific situation, constructs the measure index about the industrial structure optimization and upgrading and analyses the effect and mechanism of the FDI on the optimization and upgrading of industry of our country structure empirically. Thirdly, it puts forward innovative political proposals drawing on international experience. In this paper, based on the level of system construction, it gives the advice of the effectiveness of our foreign investment policy. And on this basis it draws a strategic transformation question about how to use foreign investment to promote the optimization of the industrial structure. So this study has certain innovation significance.
This study finds that considering our current national conditions, FDI can directly promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure and economic growth. In details, foreign direct investment promotes the upgrading of our industrial structure form labor and resource intensive industries to capital and technology intensive industries.Each industrial growth mainly benefits from the inertia of economic growth. The effects of foreign direct investment on the economic growth of the industries are different. The actual use of foreign direct investment in different industries has lagging effect on its industry, which means the use of foreign capital will promote the growth of the first and tertiary industries in the short term. While the pulling effect of foreign direct investment growth on the second industry needs a long period to realize. As for the ability of attracting foreign investment, the tertiary industry and secondary industries have better ability to attracting foreign investment. There are two-way Granger causalities between the upgrading of China's industrial structure coefficient R and the actual utilization of foreign direct investment (FDI). The actual use of foreign direct investment in the short term has great influence on the optimization and upgrading of our industrial structure, while limited influence on the long term.
引文
①中国新闻网,王昕晨《商务部：中国实际使用外资金额十年增长120%》
①中国新闻网,王听晨,《商务部：中国实际使用外资金额十年增长120%》
②陈晅.外商直接投资对我国劳动力就业的影响[J].人口与经济,2001, (5)：46-51.
①受数据获取限制,此处分析只统计到2009年。
①受数据获取限制,此处分析只统计到2010年。
①西方发达国家第三产业占GDP的比重都在70%左右。
①受数据获取限制,此处分析只统计到2009年。
②统计年鉴只有2010年的数据,2011年未公布。
①受数据获取限制,此处分析只统计到2010年。
①第一产业实际利用外商直接投资(估计值)=(第一产业合同利用外资/本年度合同利用外资总额)*本年度实际外商直接投资总额,其余同。
①张晓峒.计量经济学基础(第3版)[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2007.
①张晓峒.计量经济学基础(第3版)[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2007.
①张晓峒.计量经济学基础(第3版)[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2007.
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①中国新闻网,王听晨,《商务部：中国实际使用外资金额十年增长120%》
②陈晅.外商直接投资对我国劳动力就业的影响[J].人口与经济,2001, (5)：46-51.
①受数据获取限制,此处分析只统计到2009年。
①受数据获取限制,此处分析只统计到2010年。
①西方发达国家第三产业占GDP的比重都在70%左右。
①受数据获取限制,此处分析只统计到2009年。
②统计年鉴只有2010年的数据,2011年未公布。
①受数据获取限制,此处分析只统计到2010年。
①第一产业实际利用外商直接投资(估计值)=(第一产业合同利用外资/本年度合同利用外资总额)*本年度实际外商直接投资总额,其余同。
①张晓峒.计量经济学基础(第3版)[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2007.
①张晓峒.计量经济学基础(第3版)[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2007.
①张晓峒.计量经济学基础(第3版)[M].天津：南开大学出版社,2007.
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