创新驱动增长方式下的中国外贸政策研究
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摘要
中国正处于创新驱动新增长方式的转变阶段,这既是中国转变增长方式的需要,也是中国未来政策调整的方向。在这一背景下,中国外贸政策必然要进行适应性调整,本文主要研究了创新驱动增长方式下,中国外贸政策调整的原则、方向与具体措施。
首先,本文构建用以解释科技发展机制的“科技加速进步假说”,认为科技进步由自身常规发展和制度创新冲击共同决定。常规的科技进步速度相对固定,主要取决于一个国家的人口规模；制度创新导致制度变迁,制度变迁的速度又决定了科技进步加速度的变化。进一步通过解释李约瑟之谜、汤浅现象和中国改革开放后科技快速发展验证了假说的解释力。
然后,论文理论分析了贸易政策影响科技进步的宏观机制。开放均衡条件下的产业结构优化升级与经济的持续发展只能依靠科技创新来拉动,任何直接扶持不具比较优势产业的政策都将致使产业结构分化,稳态均衡条件下的政策干预还将导致产业蜕化和内生技术进步的阻碍。新时期政策转变的关键在于从对产业生产的补贴向促进科技创新方面转变,但对于生产效率高、技术带动性强、非完全竞争的战略新兴产业,政府还可以通过政策补贴予以适当扶持。
继而,进一步理论分析了贸易政策影响科技进步的微观机制。开放条件下,一国的技术进步来自干中学、研发投入和技术外溢三个方面,三者的综合效应会使得各国专业化生产自己比较优势产业中的技术上边界产业。动态比较优势与博弈论分析表明,对于低技术水平国家的企业而言,开放政策能带来更快的技术进步、产业升级和福利提高；对于中等技术水平国家的企业而言,开放政策可能导致整个国家陷入“中等技术陷阱”,产业升级停滞,技术进步减缓；对于高技术水平国家的企业,开放的政策意味着更高的垄断利润、连续的技术进步和产业升级。据此,处于中等技术的国家应当实行政策扶持,并借助开放条件下的好处,实现更快的技术进步和产业升级。
在理论分析的基础上,本文提出四点外贸政策调整的原则,即经济开放原则、政府放权原则、遵循比较优势原则、中等技术扶持原则。随后,论文在分析现行外贸政策创新驱动绩效的基础上,结合四项调整原则,提出了外贸政策调整的方向与措施。
第一,从激进的出口导向转向中性服务型出口导向。新形势下,要以创新驱动为立足点,转变高税费高财政、补贴高技术产业、补贴劳动密集产业的“三位一体”激进的出口导向战略及其相关政策,构建减少过高技术产业的补贴、减轻民营企业税费负担、减少传统出口行业的补贴、增加完善市场和公共设施的投入、规范对升级企业的必要扶持为内容的新的“五位一体”中性服务型出口导向战略及相关政策。“五位一体”中性服务型出口导向政策的逻辑思路是：以减少对过高技术产业的政府补贴为突破口,解放高补贴低效率对政府财政收入的束缚,进而放宽民营企业的税费征收标准,优化市场经营环境,打通产业结构与技术进步的内生升级通道,使得传统出口行业不再是承担就业重任的补贴行业,政府收缩的财力有更多机会进行公共基础实施投入和企业内生升级的护航。
第二,从参与国际分工转向全球化与区域化互动。显示技术附加值分析发现,中国在东亚的分工地位高于在国际市场上的分工地位,由此中国可以从被动参与国际分工的外贸政策向全球化与区域化互动的政策转变。一方面从国际引进技术提升国际技术外溢的技术进步,另一方面通过更多参与东亚分工提升“干中学”技术进步,形成全球化与区域化互动的科技进步发展方式。该部分进一步就促进东亚区域一体化进程提出了应对“浅池现象”的措施,即充分利用中国经济总量和经济影响力的优势,深化和周边国家标准化的双边、多遍合作,逐步形成新的东亚区域核心,致力于促进东亚区域经济一体化建设。
第三,从引进外资、“走出去”投资转向人才国际化支撑。首先提出了引进人才的“新两缺口”理论。中国现阶段的发展既不缺少外汇储备,也不缺少国内储蓄,指导发展中国家引进外资外债的“两缺口”理论不再具有理论指导意义。根据现象观察,本文提出了引进人才的“新两缺口”理论,即引进人才既能弥补发展中国家的技术缺口,又能弥补发展中国家的产业缺口,促进发展中国家发挥后发优势实现快速发展。人才国际化战略是国家的重要部署,本文进一步提出人才国际化支撑战略,是以招才引智替代招商引资,以人才国际化推进企业国际竞争力,从而促进海外直接投资的政策建议。并建议兼顾人才引进与人才培养,兼顾创业人才与创新人才,兼顾奖励机制与竞争机制,兼顾人才的国内流动与国际流动。
China is in the transition stage from investment-driven to innovation-driven growth mode, which is both the need of China's economic transition, but also the direction of China's future policy adjustments. Under such circumstance, China's foreign trade policy must be adjusted to adapt the new growth mode. The purpose of this paper is to study the principle, direction and specific measures of China's foreign trade policy adjustment.
First, we build a "technology accelerate progress hypothesis" to explain the mechanism of technological development, considering that the progress of science and technology is decided by both its conventional development and institutional innovation impact. The speed of conventional technological progress is relatively fixed, mainly relying on a country's population size. The institutional innovation leads to institutional change which determines the acceleration rate of science and technology progress. And the explanatory power of the hypothesis is verified by further explanation of Needham Puzzle, Yuasa phenomenon and the rapid technological development after China's reform and opening.
Then, the paper, in theory, analyzes the macro system that trade policy influences the science and technology progress. Under the open and equilibrium conditions, the upgrade of industrial structure and the economic sustainable development can only be driven by the innovation of science and technology. Any direct support policies for the industries contrary to the comparative advantage will lead to structural differentiation. Moreover, under stable equilibrium conditions, policy intervention can also lead to the industry degeneration and the failure of science and technology progress. The key of new-time policy transition lies in the change from subsidizing industrial production to promoting technology innovation. But, for strategic infant industries that have high productive efficiency and strong technology and incomplete competition, the government should give certain support through policy subsidies.
Thereafter, the paper, in theory, analyzes the micro system that trade policy influences the technology progress. Under open conditions, the technology development of one country mainly comes from three aspects, including learn by doing, R&D investment and technology spillover. The combined effect of the above three will make every country specialize the technological edge industries among its own comparative advantage industries. Dynamic comparative advantage and the game theory analysis shows that, for low-tech countries, the open policy can lead to faster technology development, industrial upgrading and the welfare improvement. For medium-tech countries, the open policy may lead the nation into the "medium-tech trap", with the stagnation of industrial upgrading and the slowing of technology development. For high-tech countries, the open policy means higher monopoly profits, continuous technological progress and industrial upgrading. Accordingly, the medium-tech countries should launch policy support and use the advantages under the open conditions, achieving faster technology development and industrial upgrade.
On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper proposed four principles for the adjustment of foreign trade policy, which are economic openness principle, government decentralization principle, follow comparative advantages principle and the medium-tech support principle. Then, on the basis of analyzing the present Innovation-driven performance of the foreign trade policy, along with the above four principles, this paper suggests the direction and measures of foreign trade policy adjustment.
First, shift from aggressive export-oriented to neutral service-oriented. Under new circumstances, we should set innovation-driven as a foothold, change the "three-in-one" aggressive export-oriented strategy and policy that have high tax and high finance, subsidies for high-tech industries and subsidies for labor-intensive industries. We should set the "five in one" neutral service-oriented strategy and policy. For which we need to reduce subsidies for excessively high technology industry, reduce the tax burden of private enterprises, reduce subsidies for traditional export industries, increase the input of the improvement of the market and public facilities, and standardize the necessary support for enterprise upgrade. The logical thinking of the "five in one" policy is:to set the government subsidy for high-tech industries as a breakpoint, liberating the high-subsidy low-efficiency shackles of government revenue. Thus, we can relax the taxes levied standards for private enterprises, optimize the market environment, get through the upgrade of the industrial structure and technological progress endogenous channel, making the traditional export sector no longer subsidies industry undertaking the employment task and the government shrinking financial resources have more opportunities to invest in public infrastructure and enterprise endogenous upgrade escort.
Second, shift from participating in the international specialization to the interaction of globalization and regionalization. Analysis on Revealed Value added by Technology found that China has higher specialization status in East Asia than in the international market. Thus, China can shift its policy from participating in the international specialization to the interaction of globalization and regionalization. On the one hand, technology advances from the international introduction of technology to enhance the international spillover. On the other hand, through more participation in East Asia specialization, China can improve the "learn by doing" technology progress and form up a development mode of technology with the interaction of globalization and regionalization. To promote the process of regional integration in East Asia, this part further proposes the measures for "Shallow pool phenomenon". The measures are as follows:make full use of the advantages of China's total economic output and economic influence, deepen standardized bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the neighboring countries, gradually form up a new East Asian regional core and dedicate to promoting the construction of regional economic integration in East Asia.
Third, shift from the introduction of foreign capital,"go out" investment to talent internationalization support. Firstly, we proposed a "new two-gap" theory considering the introduction of talent. At present, China's development is neither a lack of foreign exchange reserves, nor the lack of domestic savings. The "two-gap" theory which guides the developing countries to introduce foreign capital and debt no longer has its theoretical significance. According to the phenomenon observed, this paper suggests a "new two-gap" theory for the introduction of talent, which is that the introduction of talent can not only compensate for the technological gap, but also can compensate for the industrial gap of the developing countries. Thus, the developing countries can achieve fast developments using the latecomer advantages. Talent internationalization strategy is an important national deployment. This paper further suggests that the strategy that talent internationalization supports foreign capital means the shift from the introduction of the investments to the talents. It is a policy suggestion that we can promote the international competitiveness of enterprises through talent internationalization, thus promoting the direct investments overseas. Suggestions are also made that we should take the introduction of talents and personnel training both into account, which also goes for the entrepreneurial talents and innovative talents, the incentive mechanism and competition mechanism and the domestic and international mobility of talents.
首先,本文构建用以解释科技发展机制的“科技加速进步假说”,认为科技进步由自身常规发展和制度创新冲击共同决定。常规的科技进步速度相对固定,主要取决于一个国家的人口规模；制度创新导致制度变迁,制度变迁的速度又决定了科技进步加速度的变化。进一步通过解释李约瑟之谜、汤浅现象和中国改革开放后科技快速发展验证了假说的解释力。
然后,论文理论分析了贸易政策影响科技进步的宏观机制。开放均衡条件下的产业结构优化升级与经济的持续发展只能依靠科技创新来拉动,任何直接扶持不具比较优势产业的政策都将致使产业结构分化,稳态均衡条件下的政策干预还将导致产业蜕化和内生技术进步的阻碍。新时期政策转变的关键在于从对产业生产的补贴向促进科技创新方面转变,但对于生产效率高、技术带动性强、非完全竞争的战略新兴产业,政府还可以通过政策补贴予以适当扶持。
继而,进一步理论分析了贸易政策影响科技进步的微观机制。开放条件下,一国的技术进步来自干中学、研发投入和技术外溢三个方面,三者的综合效应会使得各国专业化生产自己比较优势产业中的技术上边界产业。动态比较优势与博弈论分析表明,对于低技术水平国家的企业而言,开放政策能带来更快的技术进步、产业升级和福利提高；对于中等技术水平国家的企业而言,开放政策可能导致整个国家陷入“中等技术陷阱”,产业升级停滞,技术进步减缓；对于高技术水平国家的企业,开放的政策意味着更高的垄断利润、连续的技术进步和产业升级。据此,处于中等技术的国家应当实行政策扶持,并借助开放条件下的好处,实现更快的技术进步和产业升级。
在理论分析的基础上,本文提出四点外贸政策调整的原则,即经济开放原则、政府放权原则、遵循比较优势原则、中等技术扶持原则。随后,论文在分析现行外贸政策创新驱动绩效的基础上,结合四项调整原则,提出了外贸政策调整的方向与措施。
第一,从激进的出口导向转向中性服务型出口导向。新形势下,要以创新驱动为立足点,转变高税费高财政、补贴高技术产业、补贴劳动密集产业的“三位一体”激进的出口导向战略及其相关政策,构建减少过高技术产业的补贴、减轻民营企业税费负担、减少传统出口行业的补贴、增加完善市场和公共设施的投入、规范对升级企业的必要扶持为内容的新的“五位一体”中性服务型出口导向战略及相关政策。“五位一体”中性服务型出口导向政策的逻辑思路是：以减少对过高技术产业的政府补贴为突破口,解放高补贴低效率对政府财政收入的束缚,进而放宽民营企业的税费征收标准,优化市场经营环境,打通产业结构与技术进步的内生升级通道,使得传统出口行业不再是承担就业重任的补贴行业,政府收缩的财力有更多机会进行公共基础实施投入和企业内生升级的护航。
第二,从参与国际分工转向全球化与区域化互动。显示技术附加值分析发现,中国在东亚的分工地位高于在国际市场上的分工地位,由此中国可以从被动参与国际分工的外贸政策向全球化与区域化互动的政策转变。一方面从国际引进技术提升国际技术外溢的技术进步,另一方面通过更多参与东亚分工提升“干中学”技术进步,形成全球化与区域化互动的科技进步发展方式。该部分进一步就促进东亚区域一体化进程提出了应对“浅池现象”的措施,即充分利用中国经济总量和经济影响力的优势,深化和周边国家标准化的双边、多遍合作,逐步形成新的东亚区域核心,致力于促进东亚区域经济一体化建设。
第三,从引进外资、“走出去”投资转向人才国际化支撑。首先提出了引进人才的“新两缺口”理论。中国现阶段的发展既不缺少外汇储备,也不缺少国内储蓄,指导发展中国家引进外资外债的“两缺口”理论不再具有理论指导意义。根据现象观察,本文提出了引进人才的“新两缺口”理论,即引进人才既能弥补发展中国家的技术缺口,又能弥补发展中国家的产业缺口,促进发展中国家发挥后发优势实现快速发展。人才国际化战略是国家的重要部署,本文进一步提出人才国际化支撑战略,是以招才引智替代招商引资,以人才国际化推进企业国际竞争力,从而促进海外直接投资的政策建议。并建议兼顾人才引进与人才培养,兼顾创业人才与创新人才,兼顾奖励机制与竞争机制,兼顾人才的国内流动与国际流动。
China is in the transition stage from investment-driven to innovation-driven growth mode, which is both the need of China's economic transition, but also the direction of China's future policy adjustments. Under such circumstance, China's foreign trade policy must be adjusted to adapt the new growth mode. The purpose of this paper is to study the principle, direction and specific measures of China's foreign trade policy adjustment.
First, we build a "technology accelerate progress hypothesis" to explain the mechanism of technological development, considering that the progress of science and technology is decided by both its conventional development and institutional innovation impact. The speed of conventional technological progress is relatively fixed, mainly relying on a country's population size. The institutional innovation leads to institutional change which determines the acceleration rate of science and technology progress. And the explanatory power of the hypothesis is verified by further explanation of Needham Puzzle, Yuasa phenomenon and the rapid technological development after China's reform and opening.
Then, the paper, in theory, analyzes the macro system that trade policy influences the science and technology progress. Under the open and equilibrium conditions, the upgrade of industrial structure and the economic sustainable development can only be driven by the innovation of science and technology. Any direct support policies for the industries contrary to the comparative advantage will lead to structural differentiation. Moreover, under stable equilibrium conditions, policy intervention can also lead to the industry degeneration and the failure of science and technology progress. The key of new-time policy transition lies in the change from subsidizing industrial production to promoting technology innovation. But, for strategic infant industries that have high productive efficiency and strong technology and incomplete competition, the government should give certain support through policy subsidies.
Thereafter, the paper, in theory, analyzes the micro system that trade policy influences the technology progress. Under open conditions, the technology development of one country mainly comes from three aspects, including learn by doing, R&D investment and technology spillover. The combined effect of the above three will make every country specialize the technological edge industries among its own comparative advantage industries. Dynamic comparative advantage and the game theory analysis shows that, for low-tech countries, the open policy can lead to faster technology development, industrial upgrading and the welfare improvement. For medium-tech countries, the open policy may lead the nation into the "medium-tech trap", with the stagnation of industrial upgrading and the slowing of technology development. For high-tech countries, the open policy means higher monopoly profits, continuous technological progress and industrial upgrading. Accordingly, the medium-tech countries should launch policy support and use the advantages under the open conditions, achieving faster technology development and industrial upgrade.
On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper proposed four principles for the adjustment of foreign trade policy, which are economic openness principle, government decentralization principle, follow comparative advantages principle and the medium-tech support principle. Then, on the basis of analyzing the present Innovation-driven performance of the foreign trade policy, along with the above four principles, this paper suggests the direction and measures of foreign trade policy adjustment.
First, shift from aggressive export-oriented to neutral service-oriented. Under new circumstances, we should set innovation-driven as a foothold, change the "three-in-one" aggressive export-oriented strategy and policy that have high tax and high finance, subsidies for high-tech industries and subsidies for labor-intensive industries. We should set the "five in one" neutral service-oriented strategy and policy. For which we need to reduce subsidies for excessively high technology industry, reduce the tax burden of private enterprises, reduce subsidies for traditional export industries, increase the input of the improvement of the market and public facilities, and standardize the necessary support for enterprise upgrade. The logical thinking of the "five in one" policy is:to set the government subsidy for high-tech industries as a breakpoint, liberating the high-subsidy low-efficiency shackles of government revenue. Thus, we can relax the taxes levied standards for private enterprises, optimize the market environment, get through the upgrade of the industrial structure and technological progress endogenous channel, making the traditional export sector no longer subsidies industry undertaking the employment task and the government shrinking financial resources have more opportunities to invest in public infrastructure and enterprise endogenous upgrade escort.
Second, shift from participating in the international specialization to the interaction of globalization and regionalization. Analysis on Revealed Value added by Technology found that China has higher specialization status in East Asia than in the international market. Thus, China can shift its policy from participating in the international specialization to the interaction of globalization and regionalization. On the one hand, technology advances from the international introduction of technology to enhance the international spillover. On the other hand, through more participation in East Asia specialization, China can improve the "learn by doing" technology progress and form up a development mode of technology with the interaction of globalization and regionalization. To promote the process of regional integration in East Asia, this part further proposes the measures for "Shallow pool phenomenon". The measures are as follows:make full use of the advantages of China's total economic output and economic influence, deepen standardized bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the neighboring countries, gradually form up a new East Asian regional core and dedicate to promoting the construction of regional economic integration in East Asia.
Third, shift from the introduction of foreign capital,"go out" investment to talent internationalization support. Firstly, we proposed a "new two-gap" theory considering the introduction of talent. At present, China's development is neither a lack of foreign exchange reserves, nor the lack of domestic savings. The "two-gap" theory which guides the developing countries to introduce foreign capital and debt no longer has its theoretical significance. According to the phenomenon observed, this paper suggests a "new two-gap" theory for the introduction of talent, which is that the introduction of talent can not only compensate for the technological gap, but also can compensate for the industrial gap of the developing countries. Thus, the developing countries can achieve fast developments using the latecomer advantages. Talent internationalization strategy is an important national deployment. This paper further suggests that the strategy that talent internationalization supports foreign capital means the shift from the introduction of the investments to the talents. It is a policy suggestion that we can promote the international competitiveness of enterprises through talent internationalization, thus promoting the direct investments overseas. Suggestions are also made that we should take the introduction of talents and personnel training both into account, which also goes for the entrepreneurial talents and innovative talents, the incentive mechanism and competition mechanism and the domestic and international mobility of talents.
引文
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2国家税务总局收入规划核算司：部分国家和地区简明税收统计资料(2008年版),内部资料。转引自：安体富.中国中长期税制改革研究[J].经济研究参考,2010(46)。
1安体富.中国中长期税制改革研究[J].经济研究参考,2010(46)
1数据转引自：张晓涛.国外对华反补贴发展趋势与应对策略[J].国际贸易,2012(1)
1张晓涛.国外对华反补贴发展趋势与应对策略[J].国际贸易,2012(1)
1樊纲,关志雄,姚枝仲.国际贸易结构分析：贸易品的技术分布[J].经济研究,2006(8)
1数据来源：王小鲁等.中国经济增长方式转换和增长可持续性[J].经济研究,2009(1)。这里的人力资本不但包括干中学的积累,还包括了人力资本投资的积累方式,但总体趋势不影响分析。
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