干旱驱动机制与评估方法研究
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摘要
干旱作为一种长期困扰人类的自然现象,已引起气象、水文、农业及生态环境领域的普遍关注,气候变化和人类活动对干旱影响及其驱动机制逐渐成为科学研究热点,也是我国经济社会可持续发展面临的重大挑战。开展干旱驱动机制及评估方法研究,是科学应对干旱、保障国家水资源安全进而支撑经济社会可持续发展的重大需求。
从干旱表象不同角度,可将其分为气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱等,实质上体现为“自然-人工”复合水循环不同环节发生异常。本文主要以“自然-人工”复合水循环理论为指导,结合气候系统理论及作物生理生态学理论,识别气象、水文和农业干旱驱动因素,探讨干旱驱动机制,构建干旱评估指标,完善干旱评估方法,构建干旱驱动模拟平台,提出干旱驱动定量分析方法,结合典型流域开展实证研究。主要研究成果如下：
(一)总结了国内外干旱驱动机制与评估方法研究进展
从干旱驱动机制、干旱评估方法、干旱驱动分析等几个方面总结了国内外研究进展,指出了当前研究亟待解决的问题,进而拟定了论文研究内容和技术路线。
(二)揭示了气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱驱动机制及其内在联系
在剖析干旱内涵基础上,界定了气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱的概念,分析了干旱事件从孕育、开始、缓冲、发展到解除的发生发展过程；从水循环角度识别了气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱主要驱动因素,系统揭示了气象、水文和农业干旱驱动机制及其内在联系。大气环流异常和下垫面变化是气象干旱的主要驱动因素,气候变化、土地利用变化和水资源开发利用是水文干旱和农业干旱主要驱动因素。
(三)构建了基于全口径水资源量的水文干旱评估指标,优选了气象干旱和农业干旱指标,完善了干旱评估方法
从数据准备、干旱特征指标计算和干旱特征统计分析三个层面总结提出了干旱评估基本框架；构建了基于全口径水资源量的水文干旱指标,优选了气象干旱和农业干旱指标,形成了干旱评估指标体系,完善了干旱历时、面积、强度、频率等特征指标计算方法；从单变量特征、双变量特征和多变量特征三个方面系统总结完善了干旱特征分析方法；实现了干旱评估方法的程序化。
(四)建立了基于“驱动力-压力-状态-响应”模式的干旱驱动分析框架,提出了干旱驱动定量分析方法
从系统思想角度出发,建立了基于“驱动力-压力-状态-响应”模式的干旱驱动分析框架；结合干旱驱动机制分析结果,对主要驱动因素进行量化,总结了干旱驱动因素变化规律分析方法,明确了干旱形成和演变系统的驱动力及压力,在此基础上构建了干旱驱动模拟方案集；结合干旱特征指标及其之间的关系,构建了干旱综合响应度量指标；提出了基于统计学手段的气象干旱驱动分析方法；结合WACM模型和干旱评估方法构建了干旱驱动模拟平台,提出了气候变化、土地利用变化和水资源开发利用对水文干旱和农业干旱驱动作用的定量分析方法。
(五)评估了海河北系干旱时空分布规律
将海河北系划分为4619个水循环模拟单元,基于1951～2009年实测气象数据以及其他有关数据,对WACM模型进行了率定和验证,并运用WACM模型模拟了1956～2009年的水循环过程。基于实测的气象数据和模拟的水资源量以及土壤含水率数据,运用干旱评估方法分别对海河北系气象、水文和农业干旱进行评估,分析了各类干旱的时空分布规律以及其之间的关系：
(1)1951～2009年共发生了159次气象干旱,平均干旱历时、面积和强度分别为2.5个月、54%、0.85,且干旱事件主要集中于强度在0-1、面积在30%～70%、历时在1-3个月之间的区域。
(2)1956～2009年共发生了34次水文干旱,平均干旱历时、面积和强度分别为16个月、24%、3.25,且干旱事件主要集中于强度在0-6、面积在5%～25%、历时在1-20个月之间的区域。
(3)1956～2009年共发生了102次农业干旱,平均干旱历时、面积和强度分别为4.8个月、40%、1.13,且干旱事件主要集中于强度在0-3、面积在30%～50%、历时在1-8个月之间的区域。
(4)采用指数分布、正态分布等函数分别拟合了干旱历时、面积和强度的边缘概率分布并进行了拟合优度检验,基于平方欧式距离法优选Copula函数对干旱强度-面积、强度-历时的联合概率分布进行了拟合,可计算给定任意特征值的干旱发生频率。
(5)气象、水文和农业干旱历时呈现出明显线性相关关系；气象干旱与水文干旱强度呈现较好的相关性,而气象干旱和农业干旱强度相关性则不显著,灌溉作用削弱了气象干旱和农业干旱强度之间的相关性；气象、水文、农业干旱面积之间的相关关系不显著；区域内灌区农业干旱历时和强度较周围其他地区明显要小。
(六)定量研究了海河流域北系干旱驱动归因并提出干旱应对建议
结合海河北系1951～2009年长序列资料,在分析干旱主要驱动因素变化规律基础上,界定了基准期与影响期,在此基础上设置了干旱驱动分析模拟方案,定量研究了气象、水文和农业干旱驱动归因,并提出干旱应对建议：
(1)气候因素变化规律分析结果显示,气温呈升高趋势,降水、日照时数、风速、相对湿度均呈减小趋势,各因素突变点集中在1979-1990年之间；而人类活动对海河北系的干扰在1970年之后迅速增大,综合二者界定1951～1970年为基准期,1990～2009年为影响期,中间的1971～1989年为过渡期。
(2)降水减小是气象干旱最为敏感的因素,其次是日照时数减小、相对湿度减小、气温升高和风速减小,其中,降水减小、气温升高加剧干旱,其它因素减小可缓解干旱。若降水减小10%,气象干旱历时、面积、强度及综合指标分别增加10%、7%、21%和18%。
(3)气候变化、土地利用变化和水资源开发利用对水文干旱驱动作用分别为57%、33%和10%,气候变化是驱动海河北系水文干旱的主要因素。
(4)气候变化、土地利用变化和水资源开发利用对农业干旱影响作用分别为40%、4%和-56%,表明水资源开发利用可显著缓解农业干旱,各种因素综合作用下农业干旱呈减轻趋势。
(5)从建立科学的观测体系、加强水利基础设施建设、全面建设节水型社会、强化生态环境保护和完善抗旱管理体制等五个方面提出了海河北系干旱应对建议。
Drought, as a natural phenomenon which has been disturbing us for a long time, has attracted wide attention in the field of weather, hydrology, agriculture and ecological environment. The driving mechanism and influence of climate change and human activities on drought has become the hotspot in scientific research as well as the great challenge to the sustainable development of our economy and society. The research on driving mechanism and the assessment method is of great demand in coping with drought, guaranteeing the national water resource security and supporting sustainable development to our economy and society.
Drought can be divided into meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought from different perspectives, which can be considered as the reflection of natural-artificial dualistic characteristics of hydrological cycle anomaly. Based on the theory of natural-artificial dualistic characteristics of hydrological cycle, climatic system and physiological ecology of crop, the drought driving factors of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought were identified and the driving mechanism were investigated in this study. The quantitative analysis of drought driving was conducted through building drought evaluation index and improving assessment method of drought. It is verified in typical watershed using the simulation platform designed. The main contents of this thesis can be concluded as follows:
1) The research progress of the driving mechanism of drought and assessment method at home and abroad is summarized.
The research progress of drought driving mechanism, assessment method and the analysis of driving mechanism are summarized and the issue in urgent need to be addressed is proposed. Then, the main research contents and technical route are outlined.
2) The driving mechanism of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought is discussed.
Based on the understanding of the definition of drought, the concepts of the three kinds of drought are defined and the process of evolution, buffering, beginning, developing and relieving of drought is analyzed. The driving mechanism and factors of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought are discussed. The changes of atmospheric circulation anomaly and underlying surface are the main driving factors of meteorological drought. The climatic variation, land use change and water resources development are the principal factors of hydrological drought and agricultural drought.
3) The evaluation indexes of hydrological drought based on full-aperture water resource were proposed, the indexes of meteorological drought and agricultural drought were optimized and the assessment method of drought was improved.
The theoretical framework of drought is put forward according to data preparation, index calculation of drought and statistic analysis. The evaluation indexes of hydrological drought based on full-aperture water resource were proposed, the indexes of meteorological drought and agricultural drought were optimized and the calculation methods of drought duration, area, intensity, frequency and other characteristic indexes. Then, the characteristic analysis of drought was systematically summarized from the aspects of single variable, bivariate and multivariable. Finally, the assessment method of drought can be achieved programmatically.
4) The drought driving analysis framework based on driving force-pressure-status-response model was established and the method of quantitative drought driving analysis was put forward.
A drought driving analysis framework based on driving force-pressure-status-response model was established from the perspective of systematic idea. The principal driving factors were quantified through combining the result of drought driving mechanism. What's more, the analysis methods of drought driving factors variation were summarized. The drying force and pressure of drought formation and evolution system were determined. Subsequently, the drought driving scheme was established. The drought evaluation indexes of comprehensive response were established through the combination of drought characteristic indexes and related relationships. The analysis method of climatic drought driving was proposed based on statistics. The simulation platform was established based on the water cycle model WACM and assessment methods of drought. The quantitative analysis method considering the influence of change of climate, land use and the exploitation and utilization of water resources on hydrological drought and agricultural drought was put forward.
5) The temporal-spatial distribution discipline of the northern Haihe River basin is assessed.
The northern Haihe River was divided into4619hydrological response unit for water cycle simulating. WACM model is calibrated and verified based on the observed data from1951to2009, and the water cycle process from1956to2009was simulated. The meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought were evaluated by drought evaluation methods using the measured weather data and simulated data. The temporal-spatial distribution discipline and the relationship among three kinds of drought in the northern Haihe River basin is assessed.
(1) There were159meteorological drought events from1951to2009, with average drought duration of2.5months, average drought area of54%and average drought intensity of0.85. The meteorological drought events focused on the area of drought duration from1to3months, drought area from30%to70%and drought intensity from0to1.
(2) There were34hydrological drought events from1951to2009, with average drought duration of16months, average drought area of24%and average drought intensity of3.25. The hydrological drought events focused on the area of drought duration from1to20months, drought area from5%to25%and drought intensity from0to6.
(3) There were102agricultural drought events from1951to2009, with average drought duration of4.8months, average drought area of40%and average drought intensity of1.13. The agricultural drought events focused on the area of drought duration from1to8months, drought area from30%to50%and drought intensity from0to3.
(4) The marginal probability distribution of drought duration, area and intensity was fitting by exponential distribution, normal distribution and Γ distribution. Copula formula which was optimized by SED is used to analysis the simultaneous distribution of drought duration-area, drought duration-intensity. The probability distribution is obtained and the contingent probability and recurrence interval are calculated.
(5) The drought duration among meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought presented obvious linear correlation relationship. The intensity of meteorological drought and hydrological drought shows significant correlation, but the intensity of meteorological and agricultural drought had no significant correlation, because irrigation weakens the correlation between meteorological and agricultural drought intensity. The drought area of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought had no significant correlation. The agricultural drought is more serious in non-irrigated area than that in irrigated area.
6) The drought driving results and the coping strategies of the northern Haihe River basin are studied.
Based on the data from1951to2009and the change rule of drought driving factors, the reference period and influence period are defined and the driving effect of meteorological drought, and agricultural drought, hydrological drought are analyzed. And some coping strategies are proposed to deal with the drought.
(1) The results of climate factor variation analysis show that the precipitation, sunshine time, wind speed, relative humidity has a decrease tendency but temperature has an increase tendency, and the abrupt change points of all factors concentrated in the1980s. The human activities interference increases quickly after1970. Considering the comprehensive role of climate change and human activities, the reference period was from1951to1970, the transitional period was from1971to1989and the influence period was from1990to2009.
(2)Precipitation was the most sensitive factor for meteorological drought, and then followed by sunshine duration, relative humidity, atmospheric temperature and wind speed. Drought can be more serious with the decreasing of precipitation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, and wind speed and the increasing atmospheric temperature. The aggregative indicator of drought duration, area and intensity increased10%,7%,21%and18%with the decreasing10percent of precipitation.
(3)The influence of climatic variation, land use change and water resources development and utilization to meteorological drought are57%,33%and10%respectively.
(4)The influence of climatic variation, land use change and water resources development and utilization to agricultural drought are40%,4%and-56%respectively. The results show that water resources development and utilization can lessen the effects of drought.
(5)Some coping strategies are proposed to abate the drought, such as building the monitor system scientifically, reinforcing the construction of water infrastructure and strengthening ecological environmental protection, and so on.
从干旱表象不同角度,可将其分为气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱等,实质上体现为“自然-人工”复合水循环不同环节发生异常。本文主要以“自然-人工”复合水循环理论为指导,结合气候系统理论及作物生理生态学理论,识别气象、水文和农业干旱驱动因素,探讨干旱驱动机制,构建干旱评估指标,完善干旱评估方法,构建干旱驱动模拟平台,提出干旱驱动定量分析方法,结合典型流域开展实证研究。主要研究成果如下：
(一)总结了国内外干旱驱动机制与评估方法研究进展
从干旱驱动机制、干旱评估方法、干旱驱动分析等几个方面总结了国内外研究进展,指出了当前研究亟待解决的问题,进而拟定了论文研究内容和技术路线。
(二)揭示了气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱驱动机制及其内在联系
在剖析干旱内涵基础上,界定了气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱的概念,分析了干旱事件从孕育、开始、缓冲、发展到解除的发生发展过程；从水循环角度识别了气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱主要驱动因素,系统揭示了气象、水文和农业干旱驱动机制及其内在联系。大气环流异常和下垫面变化是气象干旱的主要驱动因素,气候变化、土地利用变化和水资源开发利用是水文干旱和农业干旱主要驱动因素。
(三)构建了基于全口径水资源量的水文干旱评估指标,优选了气象干旱和农业干旱指标,完善了干旱评估方法
从数据准备、干旱特征指标计算和干旱特征统计分析三个层面总结提出了干旱评估基本框架；构建了基于全口径水资源量的水文干旱指标,优选了气象干旱和农业干旱指标,形成了干旱评估指标体系,完善了干旱历时、面积、强度、频率等特征指标计算方法；从单变量特征、双变量特征和多变量特征三个方面系统总结完善了干旱特征分析方法；实现了干旱评估方法的程序化。
(四)建立了基于“驱动力-压力-状态-响应”模式的干旱驱动分析框架,提出了干旱驱动定量分析方法
从系统思想角度出发,建立了基于“驱动力-压力-状态-响应”模式的干旱驱动分析框架；结合干旱驱动机制分析结果,对主要驱动因素进行量化,总结了干旱驱动因素变化规律分析方法,明确了干旱形成和演变系统的驱动力及压力,在此基础上构建了干旱驱动模拟方案集；结合干旱特征指标及其之间的关系,构建了干旱综合响应度量指标；提出了基于统计学手段的气象干旱驱动分析方法；结合WACM模型和干旱评估方法构建了干旱驱动模拟平台,提出了气候变化、土地利用变化和水资源开发利用对水文干旱和农业干旱驱动作用的定量分析方法。
(五)评估了海河北系干旱时空分布规律
将海河北系划分为4619个水循环模拟单元,基于1951～2009年实测气象数据以及其他有关数据,对WACM模型进行了率定和验证,并运用WACM模型模拟了1956～2009年的水循环过程。基于实测的气象数据和模拟的水资源量以及土壤含水率数据,运用干旱评估方法分别对海河北系气象、水文和农业干旱进行评估,分析了各类干旱的时空分布规律以及其之间的关系：
(1)1951～2009年共发生了159次气象干旱,平均干旱历时、面积和强度分别为2.5个月、54%、0.85,且干旱事件主要集中于强度在0-1、面积在30%～70%、历时在1-3个月之间的区域。
(2)1956～2009年共发生了34次水文干旱,平均干旱历时、面积和强度分别为16个月、24%、3.25,且干旱事件主要集中于强度在0-6、面积在5%～25%、历时在1-20个月之间的区域。
(3)1956～2009年共发生了102次农业干旱,平均干旱历时、面积和强度分别为4.8个月、40%、1.13,且干旱事件主要集中于强度在0-3、面积在30%～50%、历时在1-8个月之间的区域。
(4)采用指数分布、正态分布等函数分别拟合了干旱历时、面积和强度的边缘概率分布并进行了拟合优度检验,基于平方欧式距离法优选Copula函数对干旱强度-面积、强度-历时的联合概率分布进行了拟合,可计算给定任意特征值的干旱发生频率。
(5)气象、水文和农业干旱历时呈现出明显线性相关关系；气象干旱与水文干旱强度呈现较好的相关性,而气象干旱和农业干旱强度相关性则不显著,灌溉作用削弱了气象干旱和农业干旱强度之间的相关性；气象、水文、农业干旱面积之间的相关关系不显著；区域内灌区农业干旱历时和强度较周围其他地区明显要小。
(六)定量研究了海河流域北系干旱驱动归因并提出干旱应对建议
结合海河北系1951～2009年长序列资料,在分析干旱主要驱动因素变化规律基础上,界定了基准期与影响期,在此基础上设置了干旱驱动分析模拟方案,定量研究了气象、水文和农业干旱驱动归因,并提出干旱应对建议：
(1)气候因素变化规律分析结果显示,气温呈升高趋势,降水、日照时数、风速、相对湿度均呈减小趋势,各因素突变点集中在1979-1990年之间；而人类活动对海河北系的干扰在1970年之后迅速增大,综合二者界定1951～1970年为基准期,1990～2009年为影响期,中间的1971～1989年为过渡期。
(2)降水减小是气象干旱最为敏感的因素,其次是日照时数减小、相对湿度减小、气温升高和风速减小,其中,降水减小、气温升高加剧干旱,其它因素减小可缓解干旱。若降水减小10%,气象干旱历时、面积、强度及综合指标分别增加10%、7%、21%和18%。
(3)气候变化、土地利用变化和水资源开发利用对水文干旱驱动作用分别为57%、33%和10%,气候变化是驱动海河北系水文干旱的主要因素。
(4)气候变化、土地利用变化和水资源开发利用对农业干旱影响作用分别为40%、4%和-56%,表明水资源开发利用可显著缓解农业干旱,各种因素综合作用下农业干旱呈减轻趋势。
(5)从建立科学的观测体系、加强水利基础设施建设、全面建设节水型社会、强化生态环境保护和完善抗旱管理体制等五个方面提出了海河北系干旱应对建议。
Drought, as a natural phenomenon which has been disturbing us for a long time, has attracted wide attention in the field of weather, hydrology, agriculture and ecological environment. The driving mechanism and influence of climate change and human activities on drought has become the hotspot in scientific research as well as the great challenge to the sustainable development of our economy and society. The research on driving mechanism and the assessment method is of great demand in coping with drought, guaranteeing the national water resource security and supporting sustainable development to our economy and society.
Drought can be divided into meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought from different perspectives, which can be considered as the reflection of natural-artificial dualistic characteristics of hydrological cycle anomaly. Based on the theory of natural-artificial dualistic characteristics of hydrological cycle, climatic system and physiological ecology of crop, the drought driving factors of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought were identified and the driving mechanism were investigated in this study. The quantitative analysis of drought driving was conducted through building drought evaluation index and improving assessment method of drought. It is verified in typical watershed using the simulation platform designed. The main contents of this thesis can be concluded as follows:
1) The research progress of the driving mechanism of drought and assessment method at home and abroad is summarized.
The research progress of drought driving mechanism, assessment method and the analysis of driving mechanism are summarized and the issue in urgent need to be addressed is proposed. Then, the main research contents and technical route are outlined.
2) The driving mechanism of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought is discussed.
Based on the understanding of the definition of drought, the concepts of the three kinds of drought are defined and the process of evolution, buffering, beginning, developing and relieving of drought is analyzed. The driving mechanism and factors of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought are discussed. The changes of atmospheric circulation anomaly and underlying surface are the main driving factors of meteorological drought. The climatic variation, land use change and water resources development are the principal factors of hydrological drought and agricultural drought.
3) The evaluation indexes of hydrological drought based on full-aperture water resource were proposed, the indexes of meteorological drought and agricultural drought were optimized and the assessment method of drought was improved.
The theoretical framework of drought is put forward according to data preparation, index calculation of drought and statistic analysis. The evaluation indexes of hydrological drought based on full-aperture water resource were proposed, the indexes of meteorological drought and agricultural drought were optimized and the calculation methods of drought duration, area, intensity, frequency and other characteristic indexes. Then, the characteristic analysis of drought was systematically summarized from the aspects of single variable, bivariate and multivariable. Finally, the assessment method of drought can be achieved programmatically.
4) The drought driving analysis framework based on driving force-pressure-status-response model was established and the method of quantitative drought driving analysis was put forward.
A drought driving analysis framework based on driving force-pressure-status-response model was established from the perspective of systematic idea. The principal driving factors were quantified through combining the result of drought driving mechanism. What's more, the analysis methods of drought driving factors variation were summarized. The drying force and pressure of drought formation and evolution system were determined. Subsequently, the drought driving scheme was established. The drought evaluation indexes of comprehensive response were established through the combination of drought characteristic indexes and related relationships. The analysis method of climatic drought driving was proposed based on statistics. The simulation platform was established based on the water cycle model WACM and assessment methods of drought. The quantitative analysis method considering the influence of change of climate, land use and the exploitation and utilization of water resources on hydrological drought and agricultural drought was put forward.
5) The temporal-spatial distribution discipline of the northern Haihe River basin is assessed.
The northern Haihe River was divided into4619hydrological response unit for water cycle simulating. WACM model is calibrated and verified based on the observed data from1951to2009, and the water cycle process from1956to2009was simulated. The meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought were evaluated by drought evaluation methods using the measured weather data and simulated data. The temporal-spatial distribution discipline and the relationship among three kinds of drought in the northern Haihe River basin is assessed.
(1) There were159meteorological drought events from1951to2009, with average drought duration of2.5months, average drought area of54%and average drought intensity of0.85. The meteorological drought events focused on the area of drought duration from1to3months, drought area from30%to70%and drought intensity from0to1.
(2) There were34hydrological drought events from1951to2009, with average drought duration of16months, average drought area of24%and average drought intensity of3.25. The hydrological drought events focused on the area of drought duration from1to20months, drought area from5%to25%and drought intensity from0to6.
(3) There were102agricultural drought events from1951to2009, with average drought duration of4.8months, average drought area of40%and average drought intensity of1.13. The agricultural drought events focused on the area of drought duration from1to8months, drought area from30%to50%and drought intensity from0to3.
(4) The marginal probability distribution of drought duration, area and intensity was fitting by exponential distribution, normal distribution and Γ distribution. Copula formula which was optimized by SED is used to analysis the simultaneous distribution of drought duration-area, drought duration-intensity. The probability distribution is obtained and the contingent probability and recurrence interval are calculated.
(5) The drought duration among meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought presented obvious linear correlation relationship. The intensity of meteorological drought and hydrological drought shows significant correlation, but the intensity of meteorological and agricultural drought had no significant correlation, because irrigation weakens the correlation between meteorological and agricultural drought intensity. The drought area of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought had no significant correlation. The agricultural drought is more serious in non-irrigated area than that in irrigated area.
6) The drought driving results and the coping strategies of the northern Haihe River basin are studied.
Based on the data from1951to2009and the change rule of drought driving factors, the reference period and influence period are defined and the driving effect of meteorological drought, and agricultural drought, hydrological drought are analyzed. And some coping strategies are proposed to deal with the drought.
(1) The results of climate factor variation analysis show that the precipitation, sunshine time, wind speed, relative humidity has a decrease tendency but temperature has an increase tendency, and the abrupt change points of all factors concentrated in the1980s. The human activities interference increases quickly after1970. Considering the comprehensive role of climate change and human activities, the reference period was from1951to1970, the transitional period was from1971to1989and the influence period was from1990to2009.
(2)Precipitation was the most sensitive factor for meteorological drought, and then followed by sunshine duration, relative humidity, atmospheric temperature and wind speed. Drought can be more serious with the decreasing of precipitation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, and wind speed and the increasing atmospheric temperature. The aggregative indicator of drought duration, area and intensity increased10%,7%,21%and18%with the decreasing10percent of precipitation.
(3)The influence of climatic variation, land use change and water resources development and utilization to meteorological drought are57%,33%and10%respectively.
(4)The influence of climatic variation, land use change and water resources development and utilization to agricultural drought are40%,4%and-56%respectively. The results show that water resources development and utilization can lessen the effects of drought.
(5)Some coping strategies are proposed to abate the drought, such as building the monitor system scientifically, reinforcing the construction of water infrastructure and strengthening ecological environmental protection, and so on.
引文
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