大规模风电项目开发及并网运营优化管理研究
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摘要
随着社会经济的快速发展,生产生活对于能源的需求总量持续增长,资源环境对能源利用的约束作用也越来越强。大规模可再生清洁能源的开发及利用,为缓解能源可持续发展问题提供了坚实的基础。风能作为一种可再生清洁能源,近年来风电产业发展迅速,风电开发与利用规模不断扩大,风电开发及运营管理问题受到广泛重视。
我国风能资源丰富,开发规模增长迅速,但风电运营管理水平仍需不断提升,风能综合利用效率有待提高,先进的风电开发及运营管理理论方法需要不断完善与拓展。面对风电未来长期的发展规划及科学发展要求,深入研究风电资源开发利用、运营管理优化的科学方法,提供有效的管理策略与优化手段,具有较强的理论价值与实践意义。
本文为综合提高我国大规模风电开发及并网运营管理水平,开展了优化理论方法研究与实践分析,主要成果包括以下几个方面：
(1)系统总结了大规模风电开发及并网运营现状与问题。介绍了我国风电发展并网运营的现状以及发展的主要趋势,总结了我国大规模风电发展的主要特点,挖掘了我国大规模风电发展存在的主要问题。
(2)深入挖掘了风电并网运营的风速预测理论方法。明确了风速预测对风电并网运营管理的重要意义,对风速预测的基本理论进行了分析,提出了一种改进的MV法优选组合模型,构建了优化的量子粒子群-径向基神经网络预测模型,结合实证研究验证了改进及优化模型的先进性,对比分析了不同模型的预测精度。
(3)对大规模风电并网可靠性问题进行了研究。从系统连续性、系统安全性和系统充裕性三个角度,提出了多维度并网风电场运营可靠性指标,应用蒙特卡洛模拟法进行了实证分析。
(4)从调度优化与减少弃风两个方面开展了风电并网运营优化管理研究。提出了一种风电-火电-水电联合调度模式,兼顾了节能减排-环境成本最低、经济效益提升-综合成本控制、安全稳定运行-旋转备用容量保障的基本要求,为综合优化风电并网的联合调度提供了一种分析方法手段；提出了通过风电与传统电源联合运行、风电与储能装置协调配合的减少弃风方式,为综合提升风电利用水平,提高综合效益提供了很好的借鉴。
(5)研究了风电并网运营优化效果综合评价问题。从技术性、经济性、社会性等三个方面构建了综合评价指标体系,运用德尔菲法协同层次分析法的评价模型进行了实证研究。
(6)针对我国大规模风电开发及并网运营的发展提出了建议措施。从构建科学的风电发展战略规划,持续提升我国风电管理创新、技术创新及并网运营管理水平,建立我国风电发展辅助服务体系等三个方面进行了深入剖析。
As the rapid development of economy, production and daily living have increasing demand on the energy, while the environment is increasingly restraining the energy usage. Large scale renewable energy is a practical option for sustainable development. The wind power, as a renewable energy, is developing rapidly in recent years. With its development and usage keeps expanding, the relevant management about its development and operation has drawn attention.
China has abundant wind power resources and the development scale keeps growing. But the operation management of wind power in China needs to be enhanced and the utilization efficiency needs to be improved too. Also the advanced operation management theories need to be constantly improved and expanded. With the demand of the long term scientific development plan, in-depth studies on how to use the wind power and how to optimize the operation management scientific method can provide the effective management strategy, so this research has a strong theoretical value and practical significance.
To improve the management on the large-scale wind power development and integration, this paper made the optimization theory research and corresponding practice analysis. The main finding included the following aspects:
(1) This paper systematically summed up the status and problems of the large-scale wind power development and integration. Also it introduced the current situation and the main trends of China's wind power integration and operation, summarizing China's own development features and main problems.
(2) This paper in-depth researched the wind speed forecasting theory of the wind power integration. It identified the significant management meaning of the wind speed forecasting to the wind power integration. To improve the wind speed forecasting accuracy, it put up with a MV combined model based on the gray theory and time series theory, proposed a model based on quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization and radial basis function neural network algorithm, some calculation examples were abtained. The results showed that the new method can improve the speed and accuracy of prediction.
(3) This paper studied the reliability of the large-scale wind power integration. Multidimensional reliability index is presented from three angles which is system continuity, system security and system adequacy. It carried on the empirical research based on the model carlo method.
(4) From the view of scheduling optimization and reducing waste wind, this paper made research to optimize the management of the wind power integration, putting up with a wind power-thermal power-hydro power joint scheduling model which can satisfy the requirements of the energy conservation-lowest environmental cost, economic increase-overall cost control, safe and stable operation-spinning reserve. Meanwhile, this research provided an analysis method for optimizing the joint scheduling; it also approved joint operation of wind power and conventional power, with the coordination of the wind power and energy storage device, reducing waste wind and improving the utilization level of the wind power. It was a good reference for enhancing comprehensive benefits.
(5) This paper constructed the comprehensive evaluation system for wind power grid operation optimization effects. From the views of technical, economic and social aspects, this paper established an overall evaluation index system and carried on the empirical research with the collaborative Analytic Hierarchy Process model based on Delphi method.
(6) This paper proposed some suggestions and measures for development and integration of large-scale wind power in China. It made a thorough analysis from the cutting points of building scientific development strategic plan for wind power, constantly improving China's wind power management innovation, technological innovation and integration management, and establishing the support services system for the development of China's wind power.
我国风能资源丰富,开发规模增长迅速,但风电运营管理水平仍需不断提升,风能综合利用效率有待提高,先进的风电开发及运营管理理论方法需要不断完善与拓展。面对风电未来长期的发展规划及科学发展要求,深入研究风电资源开发利用、运营管理优化的科学方法,提供有效的管理策略与优化手段,具有较强的理论价值与实践意义。
本文为综合提高我国大规模风电开发及并网运营管理水平,开展了优化理论方法研究与实践分析,主要成果包括以下几个方面：
(1)系统总结了大规模风电开发及并网运营现状与问题。介绍了我国风电发展并网运营的现状以及发展的主要趋势,总结了我国大规模风电发展的主要特点,挖掘了我国大规模风电发展存在的主要问题。
(2)深入挖掘了风电并网运营的风速预测理论方法。明确了风速预测对风电并网运营管理的重要意义,对风速预测的基本理论进行了分析,提出了一种改进的MV法优选组合模型,构建了优化的量子粒子群-径向基神经网络预测模型,结合实证研究验证了改进及优化模型的先进性,对比分析了不同模型的预测精度。
(3)对大规模风电并网可靠性问题进行了研究。从系统连续性、系统安全性和系统充裕性三个角度,提出了多维度并网风电场运营可靠性指标,应用蒙特卡洛模拟法进行了实证分析。
(4)从调度优化与减少弃风两个方面开展了风电并网运营优化管理研究。提出了一种风电-火电-水电联合调度模式,兼顾了节能减排-环境成本最低、经济效益提升-综合成本控制、安全稳定运行-旋转备用容量保障的基本要求,为综合优化风电并网的联合调度提供了一种分析方法手段；提出了通过风电与传统电源联合运行、风电与储能装置协调配合的减少弃风方式,为综合提升风电利用水平,提高综合效益提供了很好的借鉴。
(5)研究了风电并网运营优化效果综合评价问题。从技术性、经济性、社会性等三个方面构建了综合评价指标体系,运用德尔菲法协同层次分析法的评价模型进行了实证研究。
(6)针对我国大规模风电开发及并网运营的发展提出了建议措施。从构建科学的风电发展战略规划,持续提升我国风电管理创新、技术创新及并网运营管理水平,建立我国风电发展辅助服务体系等三个方面进行了深入剖析。
As the rapid development of economy, production and daily living have increasing demand on the energy, while the environment is increasingly restraining the energy usage. Large scale renewable energy is a practical option for sustainable development. The wind power, as a renewable energy, is developing rapidly in recent years. With its development and usage keeps expanding, the relevant management about its development and operation has drawn attention.
China has abundant wind power resources and the development scale keeps growing. But the operation management of wind power in China needs to be enhanced and the utilization efficiency needs to be improved too. Also the advanced operation management theories need to be constantly improved and expanded. With the demand of the long term scientific development plan, in-depth studies on how to use the wind power and how to optimize the operation management scientific method can provide the effective management strategy, so this research has a strong theoretical value and practical significance.
To improve the management on the large-scale wind power development and integration, this paper made the optimization theory research and corresponding practice analysis. The main finding included the following aspects:
(1) This paper systematically summed up the status and problems of the large-scale wind power development and integration. Also it introduced the current situation and the main trends of China's wind power integration and operation, summarizing China's own development features and main problems.
(2) This paper in-depth researched the wind speed forecasting theory of the wind power integration. It identified the significant management meaning of the wind speed forecasting to the wind power integration. To improve the wind speed forecasting accuracy, it put up with a MV combined model based on the gray theory and time series theory, proposed a model based on quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization and radial basis function neural network algorithm, some calculation examples were abtained. The results showed that the new method can improve the speed and accuracy of prediction.
(3) This paper studied the reliability of the large-scale wind power integration. Multidimensional reliability index is presented from three angles which is system continuity, system security and system adequacy. It carried on the empirical research based on the model carlo method.
(4) From the view of scheduling optimization and reducing waste wind, this paper made research to optimize the management of the wind power integration, putting up with a wind power-thermal power-hydro power joint scheduling model which can satisfy the requirements of the energy conservation-lowest environmental cost, economic increase-overall cost control, safe and stable operation-spinning reserve. Meanwhile, this research provided an analysis method for optimizing the joint scheduling; it also approved joint operation of wind power and conventional power, with the coordination of the wind power and energy storage device, reducing waste wind and improving the utilization level of the wind power. It was a good reference for enhancing comprehensive benefits.
(5) This paper constructed the comprehensive evaluation system for wind power grid operation optimization effects. From the views of technical, economic and social aspects, this paper established an overall evaluation index system and carried on the empirical research with the collaborative Analytic Hierarchy Process model based on Delphi method.
(6) This paper proposed some suggestions and measures for development and integration of large-scale wind power in China. It made a thorough analysis from the cutting points of building scientific development strategic plan for wind power, constantly improving China's wind power management innovation, technological innovation and integration management, and establishing the support services system for the development of China's wind power.
引文
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