农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统协同发展研究
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摘要
近年来,中国的农业生态安全与农产品质量安全问题频发,且表现出了明显的交叉影响和螺旋恶化趋势。农产品质量安全领域的微观主体行为研究一方面尊重利已经济人假设,另一方面又没能找到扩张微观主体利益视角和选择空间的途径,难免陷入由外部经济、公共产品和信息不对称等所构画的“市场失灵”中；农业生态安全领域的研究和治理则一开始就超然地与国家安全、社会安全等结合起来,重在政府的外部干预和宏观治理,虽然关注和投入力度逐年加大,但由于缺乏理性、成熟的微观政策受体,管制的效率和进程堪忧。两问题的发展和研究现状呼唤学术界的交叉研究和协同关注。
农业生态安全与农产品质量安全的协同实现是个复杂的系统工程,既要尊重两系统在要素层面存在的天然联系,又要遵循两系统在经济层面的传导机制。农业生态安全与农产品质量安全问题交叉存在的原因可以归结为环境、要素、技术和经济四个层面,这四个层面问题归根结底又都受制于微观主体的利益极大化行为选择和政府的外部经济政策供给。把生产者、消费者等微观主体行为分析植入到两者协同发展的宏观政策体系设计中去,是实施人工耦合,解决农产品质量安全与农业生态安全问题的根本出路。
协同发展是实现系统良性耦合的途径,系统耦合是协同发展的基本保证。农业生态安全系统与农产品质量安全系统互相联系、互相扰动,不是独立关系；也不是简单意义上的包含关系；而是耦合关系。农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统的复合性、高级性、开放性和非线性特征,使得其具备了单个子系统不具备的催化潜势、管理潜势和发展潜势。通过耦合系统分析及相关主体行为与协同发展关系的梳理发现,生产者、消费者、政府等主体行为的选择和参与是耦合系统维系和发展的基本推动力,生产者利益视角扩张和外部收益保障,消费者利已决策的“集体悖论”,政府行为的低效失灵等主体行为研究困境都需要利用系统、发展的思想加以协同解决。
协同发展机理是包含协同发展内涵、实质、特征、原则、概念模型、运行机制、判别形态和效应等关键性问题在内的解释体系。农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统的协同发展具有新质性、相生相克和反馈平衡性、整体协调性、阶段性和动态层次性等特征,要把握好市场行为、统筹兼顾、整体有序、时空统一、质量相关等原则,兼顾发展的协调性、效益型和可持续性,具体包括目标协同、利益协同、信息协同、技术协同、组织协同等多方面内容,其实现过程离不开相应的运行保障机制。其中,耦合系统的内部促进力量主要来源于主体利益扩张,技术选择促进、信息强化和组织推动等方面；外部导向力量主要来源于政策、法律、文化和服务等的促进作用；生产者的参与机制就是在经济利益、物品利益和精神利益“三位一体”的利益结构下理性决策,承担更多的社会责任；消费者则应注意利己行为的“集体悖论”,推广理性消费、通过监督机制和责任机制的建立发挥对“两安全”的逆向促进作用。
协同发展形态和协同发展效应是耦合系统发展动态性、阶段性、层次性的基本表征。鉴于研究对象的复杂性和区域性差别性,主张把系统综合评价方法和协调度模型有机结合,确定子系统序参量,并在此基础上进行耦合系统协调度测算。农业生态安全系统的评价运用OECD和UNEP提出的“压力—状态—响应”模型,农产品质量安全系统评价考虑到农产品质量安全系统的复杂性和相关主体行为在农产品质量安全系统中的重要作用,设计了“环境影响—主体行为—质量结果”三位一体的评价指标体系。为了考量耦合系统协同发展的时间性,主张用灰色系统模型GM(1,1)对区域农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统的远期发展状态进行预测；在协同发展效应评价方面,主张以DEA方法为基础,建立农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统协同发展效度综合评价模型。
现阶段,统计数据显示吉林省农业生态安全与农产品质量安全均有向好趋势,但系统综合评价的结果则表明,吉林省农业生态安全状况变化情况并不大,多数年份位于0.4-0.6之间,处于危险态和敏感态边缘；农产品质量安全情况在强大的外部干预下表现出明显的波动向好态势,1998年综合得分开始为正,但受突发性恶性食品中毒事件或环境事件等的影响和作用,年度间涨落较大。预测发现,未来一段时间内吉林省农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统的协调度呈线性增长态势,也即在良好的外部影响和干预条件下,耦合系统有序度或协调度会显著提高,预计到2028年突破0.5,进入弱度协同发展态势,2030年突破0.6,达到中等协调状态。协同发展效应评价结果显示,吉林省农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统协调度不高,子系统内部、子系统之间、耦合系统内部都存在明显的协同发展非有效。
采取有效措施刺激耦合系统中最核心和最能动的主体行为发挥作用是未来一段时间内政府外部干预的重点。依据问卷调查数据运用EVIEWS6.0对生产者行为一致性的二元Probit估计表明,性别、年龄,技术和信息服务、安全农产品供给的直接经济收益依然影响是农户意愿与行为一致性的决定性因素,而农户安全农产品供给意愿和行为的一致性外部压力和动力则主要来自于政府；依据调研数据运用SPSS软件对消费者行为一致性的二元Logistics回归显示,消费者受教育程度、家庭人口规模、家庭月收入、消费地点、消费体验、消费者农产品质量安全认证知识和政府农产品质量安全监管了解程度是影响其对安全农产品消费意愿与行为一致性的重要因素；此外,相关主体农业生态安全与农产品质量安全逻辑关系认知和敏感程度显著影响各自的行为决策。上述主体行为的关键性影响因素就是未来协同政策体系设计需要作用的关键点。具体说来,就是要注意秉持市场手段和行政手段并举、经济刺激和文化激励并重的基本原则,着眼于生产者利益视角的扩展；消费者质量安全信心的培育；各类农业组织的引导和规范；相关主体社会责任意识强化等。
In recent years, the agro-ecological security and agricultural product quality and safety issues crop up frequently, and showed a significant cross-impact and a spiral of deteriorating trend. Micro-behavior researches in the agricultural products quality and safety field respect the self-serving assumption of economic man, but find no way to expand the micro-interests perspectives and choices space. And inevitably fall in "market failure" caused by external economic, public goods and asymmetric information; Researches in the field of agro-ecological security transcendently combined with national security and social security, focusing on the external intervention of the government and the macro-governance. Although paying incremental attention and devoting more efforts, efficiency and control process is worrying for the lack of rational, mature micro policies receptor; The development and research of the problem calls for cross-over academia study and collaboration concern.
Collaborative implementation of agro-ecological safety and agricultural products quality and safety is complex system engineering. From analyzing the elements level relation and transmission mechanism in economic dimensions of the two systems, we found that the cross existence of the two problems are attribute to four reasons:environment, elements, technical and economic, which are final subject to the micro-interests maximizing behavior and the government's supply of external economic policy. It is the fundamental way to artificially coupled the problems of agricultural products quality and safety and agro-ecological security based on the logical relationship of agro-ecological safety and agricultural products quality and safety, relying on both the conduction mechanism in technology, information, prices and organizational aspects, to implant the behavior analysis of producers, consumers, and other microscopic into the macro-policy system.
Synergism development is the pathway of system's benign coupled; system coupling is the basic guarantee for synergism development. Coupled system of agro-ecological security and the quality and safety of agricultural products have catalytic potential, management potential, and development potential that single subsystem does not have for its complex, advanced, open and non-linear characteristics. Coupling system analysis found that the energy flow and transformation in elements level is the fundamental driving force of the existence and evolution of coupled system; transmission mechanism in economic level is the path of the existence and operation of the coupled system; producers, consumers and the government'selection and participation is the basic driving force for the maintenance and development of coupling systems; policy, culture, legal services and external policy environment supply are the basic guarantee for coupled system to achieve the orderly development.
Synergism development mechanism is the interpretation system includes connotation, essence, characteristics, principles, conceptual model, operating mechanism, discriminant form and effect, and other key issues. Synergism development operational mechanism of the agro-ecological security and agricultural products quality and safety coupled system, includes internal promote mechanism, external guide mechanism and the micro subject participation mechanism. The internal promotion mechanism is demonstrated by the extend of main interests of promoting the technology of choice, information strengthen and organizations promote; external guide mechanism focus on the role of policy, legal, cultural and service; producer participation rational decision-making mechanism is in the interests of the "trinity" structure of the economic benefits, goods, benefits and spiritual interests, consumers should pay attention to self-serving behavior "collective paradox" to promote the rational consumption, to take on more social responsibility; and play a role in promoting "security" reverse through oversight mechanisms and the establishment of accountability mechanisms.
Synergism development patterns and synergism development effect are the basic characterization of coupling system developments' dynamic, stage and level. The selection and evaluation ideas of the synergism development of the agro-ecological safety and quality of agricultural products safety coupling system is the most important methodological for the identification of regional coupling system synergy developments and the formulation of development strategy. In view of the complexity and regional differences, the study advocates a combination of the system of comprehensive evaluation methods and coordination degree model to determine the subsystem order parameter, and estimates the coupled system coordination degree. Evaluation of agricultural ecological security system using OECD and UNEP "pressure-state-response model, agricultural products quality and safety system evaluation to take into account the complexity of the system of quality and safety of agricultural products and of the behavior of an important role in the system of quality and safety of agricultural products, design the environmental impact-the main behavior evaluation index system of the Trinity-the quality of the results. In addition, considering the timing of the synergism development coupled system, provide the use of gray system model GM (1,1) to predict the long-term development of the regional agricultural ecological security and agricultural products quality and safety coupled system state. As for the synergism development effect evaluation, it suggests the establishment of agricultural ecological security and agricultural products quality and safety coupled system of coordinated development degree evaluation model based on DEA method.
At present, the statistics show that there is a good trend in Jilin Province's agro-ecological security and agricultural products quality&safety, but the results of the comprehensive evaluation of the couping system indicates that the agro-ecological ecurity situation changed little and ranged from0.4to0.6, and is in a dangerous state and sensitive state edge in most years;the quality and safety of agricultural products showed significant fluctuations in the good situation under a strong external intervention, the composite score of1998begun to be positive, but had an inter-annual fluctuation impacted by the sudden vicious food poisoning or environmental events.The predict found that there will be a linear growth in the synergism degree of Jilin province's agro-ecological security and agricultural products quality safety coupling system in the next period of time, that means the coupling system synergism degree will be significantly improved in good external influence and interference conditions.and is expected to break through to0.5in2028whih means weak synergism development, and to exceed0.6in2030, and enter the medium coordination state. The evaluation results of the synergism development effect with DEA showed that, there are obvious non-effective synergism development in Jilin Province'coupling system of the agro-ecological safety and agricultural products quality&safety scheduling in the subsystems, between the subsystems and within the coupled system.
Take effective measures to stimulate the coupled system's core and most active subjects behavior play a role is the focus of the government's outside intervention in future.The binary Probit estimated with Eiews6.0of producer behavior' consistency based on survey data showed that gender, age, technology and information services, the direct economic benefits of supply of security agricultural products are still the decisive factor affecting the farmers willingness and behavior consistency; and the farmers safe agricultural supply will and behavior consistent external pressure and momentum mainly from government; Logistics regression using SPSS software on consumer behavior consistency binary based on the survey data displays that consumer education, household population size monthly family income, the site of consumption, consumption experience, consumers of agricultural products quality and safety certification of knowledge and government agricultural product quality safety supervision understand the degree of the important factors that affect the consistency of the safety of agricultural products consumer willingness and behavior. In addition, the related entities'cognitive and sensitivity of the logical relationship between agro-ecological security and agricultural products quality&safety significantly affect individual's decision-making behavior. The main critical behavior influencing factors above are the key points of designing the collaborative policy system. Specifically, are to pay attention to adhereing of market-based instruments and administrative means, to make equal emphasis on both economic stimulus and cultural incentives, to focus on the expansion of producer interest perspective and the cultivation of consumer confidence in agricultural products quality and safety; to guide and regulate all kinds of agricultural organizations; and to strengthen the main social responsibility sense of related entities.
农业生态安全与农产品质量安全的协同实现是个复杂的系统工程,既要尊重两系统在要素层面存在的天然联系,又要遵循两系统在经济层面的传导机制。农业生态安全与农产品质量安全问题交叉存在的原因可以归结为环境、要素、技术和经济四个层面,这四个层面问题归根结底又都受制于微观主体的利益极大化行为选择和政府的外部经济政策供给。把生产者、消费者等微观主体行为分析植入到两者协同发展的宏观政策体系设计中去,是实施人工耦合,解决农产品质量安全与农业生态安全问题的根本出路。
协同发展是实现系统良性耦合的途径,系统耦合是协同发展的基本保证。农业生态安全系统与农产品质量安全系统互相联系、互相扰动,不是独立关系；也不是简单意义上的包含关系；而是耦合关系。农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统的复合性、高级性、开放性和非线性特征,使得其具备了单个子系统不具备的催化潜势、管理潜势和发展潜势。通过耦合系统分析及相关主体行为与协同发展关系的梳理发现,生产者、消费者、政府等主体行为的选择和参与是耦合系统维系和发展的基本推动力,生产者利益视角扩张和外部收益保障,消费者利已决策的“集体悖论”,政府行为的低效失灵等主体行为研究困境都需要利用系统、发展的思想加以协同解决。
协同发展机理是包含协同发展内涵、实质、特征、原则、概念模型、运行机制、判别形态和效应等关键性问题在内的解释体系。农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统的协同发展具有新质性、相生相克和反馈平衡性、整体协调性、阶段性和动态层次性等特征,要把握好市场行为、统筹兼顾、整体有序、时空统一、质量相关等原则,兼顾发展的协调性、效益型和可持续性,具体包括目标协同、利益协同、信息协同、技术协同、组织协同等多方面内容,其实现过程离不开相应的运行保障机制。其中,耦合系统的内部促进力量主要来源于主体利益扩张,技术选择促进、信息强化和组织推动等方面；外部导向力量主要来源于政策、法律、文化和服务等的促进作用；生产者的参与机制就是在经济利益、物品利益和精神利益“三位一体”的利益结构下理性决策,承担更多的社会责任；消费者则应注意利己行为的“集体悖论”,推广理性消费、通过监督机制和责任机制的建立发挥对“两安全”的逆向促进作用。
协同发展形态和协同发展效应是耦合系统发展动态性、阶段性、层次性的基本表征。鉴于研究对象的复杂性和区域性差别性,主张把系统综合评价方法和协调度模型有机结合,确定子系统序参量,并在此基础上进行耦合系统协调度测算。农业生态安全系统的评价运用OECD和UNEP提出的“压力—状态—响应”模型,农产品质量安全系统评价考虑到农产品质量安全系统的复杂性和相关主体行为在农产品质量安全系统中的重要作用,设计了“环境影响—主体行为—质量结果”三位一体的评价指标体系。为了考量耦合系统协同发展的时间性,主张用灰色系统模型GM(1,1)对区域农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统的远期发展状态进行预测；在协同发展效应评价方面,主张以DEA方法为基础,建立农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统协同发展效度综合评价模型。
现阶段,统计数据显示吉林省农业生态安全与农产品质量安全均有向好趋势,但系统综合评价的结果则表明,吉林省农业生态安全状况变化情况并不大,多数年份位于0.4-0.6之间,处于危险态和敏感态边缘；农产品质量安全情况在强大的外部干预下表现出明显的波动向好态势,1998年综合得分开始为正,但受突发性恶性食品中毒事件或环境事件等的影响和作用,年度间涨落较大。预测发现,未来一段时间内吉林省农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统的协调度呈线性增长态势,也即在良好的外部影响和干预条件下,耦合系统有序度或协调度会显著提高,预计到2028年突破0.5,进入弱度协同发展态势,2030年突破0.6,达到中等协调状态。协同发展效应评价结果显示,吉林省农业生态安全与农产品质量安全耦合系统协调度不高,子系统内部、子系统之间、耦合系统内部都存在明显的协同发展非有效。
采取有效措施刺激耦合系统中最核心和最能动的主体行为发挥作用是未来一段时间内政府外部干预的重点。依据问卷调查数据运用EVIEWS6.0对生产者行为一致性的二元Probit估计表明,性别、年龄,技术和信息服务、安全农产品供给的直接经济收益依然影响是农户意愿与行为一致性的决定性因素,而农户安全农产品供给意愿和行为的一致性外部压力和动力则主要来自于政府；依据调研数据运用SPSS软件对消费者行为一致性的二元Logistics回归显示,消费者受教育程度、家庭人口规模、家庭月收入、消费地点、消费体验、消费者农产品质量安全认证知识和政府农产品质量安全监管了解程度是影响其对安全农产品消费意愿与行为一致性的重要因素；此外,相关主体农业生态安全与农产品质量安全逻辑关系认知和敏感程度显著影响各自的行为决策。上述主体行为的关键性影响因素就是未来协同政策体系设计需要作用的关键点。具体说来,就是要注意秉持市场手段和行政手段并举、经济刺激和文化激励并重的基本原则,着眼于生产者利益视角的扩展；消费者质量安全信心的培育；各类农业组织的引导和规范；相关主体社会责任意识强化等。
In recent years, the agro-ecological security and agricultural product quality and safety issues crop up frequently, and showed a significant cross-impact and a spiral of deteriorating trend. Micro-behavior researches in the agricultural products quality and safety field respect the self-serving assumption of economic man, but find no way to expand the micro-interests perspectives and choices space. And inevitably fall in "market failure" caused by external economic, public goods and asymmetric information; Researches in the field of agro-ecological security transcendently combined with national security and social security, focusing on the external intervention of the government and the macro-governance. Although paying incremental attention and devoting more efforts, efficiency and control process is worrying for the lack of rational, mature micro policies receptor; The development and research of the problem calls for cross-over academia study and collaboration concern.
Collaborative implementation of agro-ecological safety and agricultural products quality and safety is complex system engineering. From analyzing the elements level relation and transmission mechanism in economic dimensions of the two systems, we found that the cross existence of the two problems are attribute to four reasons:environment, elements, technical and economic, which are final subject to the micro-interests maximizing behavior and the government's supply of external economic policy. It is the fundamental way to artificially coupled the problems of agricultural products quality and safety and agro-ecological security based on the logical relationship of agro-ecological safety and agricultural products quality and safety, relying on both the conduction mechanism in technology, information, prices and organizational aspects, to implant the behavior analysis of producers, consumers, and other microscopic into the macro-policy system.
Synergism development is the pathway of system's benign coupled; system coupling is the basic guarantee for synergism development. Coupled system of agro-ecological security and the quality and safety of agricultural products have catalytic potential, management potential, and development potential that single subsystem does not have for its complex, advanced, open and non-linear characteristics. Coupling system analysis found that the energy flow and transformation in elements level is the fundamental driving force of the existence and evolution of coupled system; transmission mechanism in economic level is the path of the existence and operation of the coupled system; producers, consumers and the government'selection and participation is the basic driving force for the maintenance and development of coupling systems; policy, culture, legal services and external policy environment supply are the basic guarantee for coupled system to achieve the orderly development.
Synergism development mechanism is the interpretation system includes connotation, essence, characteristics, principles, conceptual model, operating mechanism, discriminant form and effect, and other key issues. Synergism development operational mechanism of the agro-ecological security and agricultural products quality and safety coupled system, includes internal promote mechanism, external guide mechanism and the micro subject participation mechanism. The internal promotion mechanism is demonstrated by the extend of main interests of promoting the technology of choice, information strengthen and organizations promote; external guide mechanism focus on the role of policy, legal, cultural and service; producer participation rational decision-making mechanism is in the interests of the "trinity" structure of the economic benefits, goods, benefits and spiritual interests, consumers should pay attention to self-serving behavior "collective paradox" to promote the rational consumption, to take on more social responsibility; and play a role in promoting "security" reverse through oversight mechanisms and the establishment of accountability mechanisms.
Synergism development patterns and synergism development effect are the basic characterization of coupling system developments' dynamic, stage and level. The selection and evaluation ideas of the synergism development of the agro-ecological safety and quality of agricultural products safety coupling system is the most important methodological for the identification of regional coupling system synergy developments and the formulation of development strategy. In view of the complexity and regional differences, the study advocates a combination of the system of comprehensive evaluation methods and coordination degree model to determine the subsystem order parameter, and estimates the coupled system coordination degree. Evaluation of agricultural ecological security system using OECD and UNEP "pressure-state-response model, agricultural products quality and safety system evaluation to take into account the complexity of the system of quality and safety of agricultural products and of the behavior of an important role in the system of quality and safety of agricultural products, design the environmental impact-the main behavior evaluation index system of the Trinity-the quality of the results. In addition, considering the timing of the synergism development coupled system, provide the use of gray system model GM (1,1) to predict the long-term development of the regional agricultural ecological security and agricultural products quality and safety coupled system state. As for the synergism development effect evaluation, it suggests the establishment of agricultural ecological security and agricultural products quality and safety coupled system of coordinated development degree evaluation model based on DEA method.
At present, the statistics show that there is a good trend in Jilin Province's agro-ecological security and agricultural products quality&safety, but the results of the comprehensive evaluation of the couping system indicates that the agro-ecological ecurity situation changed little and ranged from0.4to0.6, and is in a dangerous state and sensitive state edge in most years;the quality and safety of agricultural products showed significant fluctuations in the good situation under a strong external intervention, the composite score of1998begun to be positive, but had an inter-annual fluctuation impacted by the sudden vicious food poisoning or environmental events.The predict found that there will be a linear growth in the synergism degree of Jilin province's agro-ecological security and agricultural products quality safety coupling system in the next period of time, that means the coupling system synergism degree will be significantly improved in good external influence and interference conditions.and is expected to break through to0.5in2028whih means weak synergism development, and to exceed0.6in2030, and enter the medium coordination state. The evaluation results of the synergism development effect with DEA showed that, there are obvious non-effective synergism development in Jilin Province'coupling system of the agro-ecological safety and agricultural products quality&safety scheduling in the subsystems, between the subsystems and within the coupled system.
Take effective measures to stimulate the coupled system's core and most active subjects behavior play a role is the focus of the government's outside intervention in future.The binary Probit estimated with Eiews6.0of producer behavior' consistency based on survey data showed that gender, age, technology and information services, the direct economic benefits of supply of security agricultural products are still the decisive factor affecting the farmers willingness and behavior consistency; and the farmers safe agricultural supply will and behavior consistent external pressure and momentum mainly from government; Logistics regression using SPSS software on consumer behavior consistency binary based on the survey data displays that consumer education, household population size monthly family income, the site of consumption, consumption experience, consumers of agricultural products quality and safety certification of knowledge and government agricultural product quality safety supervision understand the degree of the important factors that affect the consistency of the safety of agricultural products consumer willingness and behavior. In addition, the related entities'cognitive and sensitivity of the logical relationship between agro-ecological security and agricultural products quality&safety significantly affect individual's decision-making behavior. The main critical behavior influencing factors above are the key points of designing the collaborative policy system. Specifically, are to pay attention to adhereing of market-based instruments and administrative means, to make equal emphasis on both economic stimulus and cultural incentives, to focus on the expansion of producer interest perspective and the cultivation of consumer confidence in agricultural products quality and safety; to guide and regulate all kinds of agricultural organizations; and to strengthen the main social responsibility sense of related entities.
引文
① 《生态经济通讯》,2012年第2期,第12页。
② 钱学森等。《论系统工程》,湖南科学技术出版社,1982年版,第10页。
③ 资料来源：根据1998年、1999年《吉林省统计年鉴》计算整理得出。
④ 2013年《政府工作报告》
⑤ 2011年《中国统计年鉴》。
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