水分对切花百合生长和外观品质影响的预测模型研究
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摘要
水分是影响观赏植物生长和外观品质形成的重要因子之一。为定量研究水分对切花百合生长和外观品质的影响,本研究以切花百合‘索邦’(Lilium'Sorbonne')为试验材料,于2009年3月～2010年1月在南京市农科所花卉温室内进行了不同定植期(2009.3.26、2009.4.26、2009.9.27)和不同水分处理(-4～-10kPa、-10～-15kPa、-15～-25kPa、-25～-40kPa)的栽培试验,以基于光温(Plant based photo-thermal index, PTI)的温室花卉生长和外观品质预测模型为基础,利用水分处理试验数据资料,定量分析了基质水势对切花百合各生长指标(叶面积指数、叶片最大总光合效率、干物质生产和分配)和各外观品质指标(株高、展叶数、花苞长和花苞直径)以及出花率动态的影响,建立了基质水势对切花百合生长和外观品质及出花率影响的预测模型,并用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验。结果表明,本研究建立的模型对切花百合各生长指标、外观品质指标以及出花率的预测效果均较好,模型可以为切花百合生产中水分的精确与优化管理提供理论依据和决策支持。具体研究结果如下：
(1)通过水分对切花百合生长和外观品质指标影响的研究,切花百合生长指标和外观品质指标随着基质水势的升高而增加,达到-15kPa时,切花百合各生长和外观品质指标趋于稳定,所以本试验确定-15kPa为切花百合生产的临界水势。
(2)水分对叶面积指数影响的模拟预测。水分处理试验结果表明,最大叶长(Lmax)、叶面积指数增加速率(rLAI)、叶面积指数(LAI)随着基质水势的升高而增加,当基质水势达到-15kPa时,趋于稳定；当基质水势低于-15kPa时,Lmax、rLAI和LAImax则随着基质水势的降低而呈线性递减趋势。用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对展叶数、单叶叶长和LAI预测,模型对切花百合展叶数(N)、单叶叶长(L)和LAI预测值与实测值基于1：1线的决定系数(r2)值为0.96、0.82和0.97；相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)值为6.32%、8.78%和7.12%。
(3)水分对叶片最大总光合速率和干物质生产影响的模拟预测。利用水分处理试验数据资料,定量分析了水分对单叶最大总光合速率(P g,max)和初始光能利用率(ε)的影响。结果表明,当基质水势在-15kPa以上时,百合植株的P g,max和ε趋于稳定；当基质水势低于-15kPa时,则随着基质水势的降低而呈线性递减趋势。用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验。结果表明,模型对切花百合植株的叶片最大总光合速率(Pg,max/和植株总干重(BIOMASS)的预测值与实测值之间基于1：1线的决定系数(r2)分别为0.96,0.81,相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)分别为4.37%,10.54%
(4)水分对干物质分配影响的模拟预测。利用水分处理试验数据资料,定量分析了水分对切花百合地上部(花、茎、叶)和地下部各器官干物质分配指数(鳞茎、茎生根)动态的影响。结果表明,百合植株花、茎、叶、茎生根的分配指数(PIF、PIST、PIL、PIR)随着基质水势的升高而增加,到达-15kPa时不再升高,鳞茎的分配指数(PIB)随着基质水势的升高而下降,在-15kPa是不再下降。各器官花、茎、叶、鳞茎和茎生根的分配指数增加速率(rPIF、rPIST、rPIL、rPIB、rPIR、随着基质水势的升高而上升,达到-15kPa时不再变化。用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,模型对切花百合各器官(花、茎、叶、鳞茎、茎生根)干重(DMF、 DMST、DML、DMB、DMR)预测值与实测值之间基于1：1线的决定系数(r2)分别为0.96、0.95、0.86、0.95、0.85,相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)分别为19.18%、12.35%、19.42%、12.23%、31.73%。该模型对在不同水分处理下温室切花百合干物质分配动态的预测具有较好的解释性和预测性。
(5)水分对外观品质指标(株高、展叶数、花苞长、花苞直径)的动态影响的模拟预测。利用水分处理试验数据资料,定量分析了水分对切花百合外观品质各指标和出花率的影响。结果表明,基质水势对切花百合展叶数(N)的影响,各处理变化不显著,值为37leaves·pl-1.当基质水势在-15kPa以上时,各外观品质指标均无明显差异；当基质水势在-15kPa以下时,株高、花苞长和花苞直径外观指标的增长速率(rH、rFL、rFD)随着基质水势的下降而呈线性下降趋势,使得采收时株高(HH)、花苞长(FL)和花苞直径(FD)降低,影响了切花品质。用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,模型对切花百合NH、N、FL和FD预测值与实测值基于1：1线的决定系数(r2)值分别为0.97、0.96、0.97、0.89；相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)值分别为7.54%、6.32%、9.56%、1.15%。
(6)水分对出花率影响的模拟预测。不同水分处理采收时统计的各级(A级、B级、C级、D级)出花率的结果表明,A级和B级花的出花率(RA、RB)随着基质水势的升高而增加,当基质水势达到-15kPa时,不再增加；C级、D级花的出花率(RC、RD)随之基质水势的升高而降低,达到-15kPa是不再降低。基质水势在-15kPa以下时,RA、RB占的比例小,而RC、RD占的比例大,导致了切花品质的下降；在-15kPa以上,RA、RB占的比例大,而RC、RD占的比例小,提高了切花的品质。用与建立模型的相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,模型对切花百合的RA、RB、RC、RD预测值与实测值基于1：1线的决定系数(产)值为0.87；相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)分别为6.41%。
本研究建立的模型可以根据定植日期、基质水势和温室光和有效辐射和温度信息动态预测切花百合‘索邦’的生长和外观品质指标及出花率。模型综合考虑了温度、光照和水分对切花百合的综合影响,采用基质水势而不是土壤含水量为水分指标,针对不同类型的土壤或基质建立含水量——水势关系特征曲线,可以为不同类型土壤或基质栽培百合‘索邦’的水分管理提供理论依据和决策支持。
Water is an essential factor which affects the crop growth and the formation of the growth and external quality. The aim of this study is to quantitatively investigate the effects of water on crop growth and external quality of cut Lilium. Experiments of Lilium 'Sorbonne'with different planting dates (2009.3.26,2009.4.26,2009.9.27) and different levels of water treatment (-4～-10kPa,-10～-15kPa,-15～25kPa,-25～40kPa) were conducted in a flower greenhouse in Naijing from March2009to January2010. Based on the model describing the effect of photo-thermal index (PTI) on greenhouse flower growth and external quality, we analyzed the effect of substrate water potential on the leaf area index (LAI), the maximal photosynthesis rate, dry matter production and partitioning of cut Lilium, meantime, collected the data of external quality including plant height, the number of leaf unfolding, flower length and flower diameter under different treatments, then developed a model to predict the growth, external quality, relative yield and validated the model with independent experimental data. The results showed a well predicted conclusion of LAI, dry weight and various external quality indices. This study provided the theoretical basis and decision making to water management during cut Lilium production. The main research results are follows:
(1) Determination of the critical value for substrate potential. According to our experiment and result analysis, all the growth and external quality indices linearly decrease along with the decreasing substrate water potential when its value is below-15kPa, but remain constant above-15kPa. Thus we deem-15kPa as the threshold value for cut Lilium growth.
(2) Predicting the effects of water on LAI of cut Lilium.The study quantitatively analyzed the maximum leaf length (Lmax), increasing rate of LAI (rLAI) and LAI under different water treatments. The results showed that Imax,rLAI and LAImax increased along with the increasing of substrate water potential, the two indexes were stable when the water potential attended-15kPa, but linearly decreased accompanied the decrease of water potential below-15kPa. Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted number of leaf unfolding, leaf length and LAI were0.96,0.82,0.97and6.32%,8.78%,7.12%, respectively.
(3) Predicting the effect of water on maximal photosynthesis rate and dry matter production of cut Lilium. The study quantitatively analyzed the maximum leaf gross photosynthesis rate (Pg,max) and initial photo-energy utilization ratio (ε) under different water treatments. The results showed that Pg,max and ε were almost the same when the water potential was above-15kPa, but linearly decreased accompanied the decrease of water potential below-15kPa. Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted for Pg,max and biomass were0.96,0.81and4.37%,10.54%, respectively.
(4) Predicting the effect of water on dry matter partitioning of cut Lilium. The study quantitatively analyzed the indexes of organs aboveground and underground under different water treatments. The results showed that the indexes for flower, stem, leaf, root (PIF, PIST, PIL, PIR) increased but bulb(PIB) decreased along with the increasing when the water potential was above-15kPa, respectively. And all the increasing rate of these indexes (rPIF, rPIST. rPIL.rPIR,rPIB) linearly increased accompanied the increase of water potential below-15kPa. Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted for the dry weight of organs (DMF, DMST, DML, DMB, DMR) were0.96,0.95,0.86,0.95,0.85and19.18%,12.35%,19.42%,12.23%,31.73%, respectively.
(5) Predicting the effect of water on external quality (plant height, leaf number, flower length, flower diameter) of cut Lilium. The study quantitatively analyzed the external quality under different water treatments. The results showed that the effect of water on cut Lilium total leaf number was not significant. The external quality showed no difference when the substrate water potential was above-15kPa, but the increasing rate of plant height, flower length and flower diameter (rH, rFL,rFD) linearly decreased along with the decrease of water potential below-15kPa, which resulted in the decrease of harvesting plant height (HH), flower length (FL) and flower diameter (FD). Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted for the HH, N, FL and FD were0.97,0.96,0.97,0.89and7.54%,6.32%,9.56%,1.15%, respectively.
(6) Predicting the effect of water on relative yield of cut Lilium. The study quantitatively added up the different ranks (rank A, B, C and D) of relative yield under different water treatments. The results showed that the rank A and B increased along with the increasing substrate water potential above-15kPa, but opposite to the rank C and D. when the substrate water potential was below-15kPa, the ratio of (RA+RB)/(RC-RD) decreased, which led to bad external quality. Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted for the relative yield were0.87and6.41%, respectively.
This model is capacity for dynamicly predicting the cut Lilium growth, external quality and relative yield according to the date of planting, substrate water potential, PAR and temperature in greenhouse. In the model, we used substrate water potential to replace the subatrate water content and comprehensively considered the effect of temperature, light and water on cut Lilum which could be used in various types of soil or substrate, and provided the theoretical basis and decision making to water management during cut Lilium production.
(1)通过水分对切花百合生长和外观品质指标影响的研究,切花百合生长指标和外观品质指标随着基质水势的升高而增加,达到-15kPa时,切花百合各生长和外观品质指标趋于稳定,所以本试验确定-15kPa为切花百合生产的临界水势。
(2)水分对叶面积指数影响的模拟预测。水分处理试验结果表明,最大叶长(Lmax)、叶面积指数增加速率(rLAI)、叶面积指数(LAI)随着基质水势的升高而增加,当基质水势达到-15kPa时,趋于稳定；当基质水势低于-15kPa时,Lmax、rLAI和LAImax则随着基质水势的降低而呈线性递减趋势。用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对展叶数、单叶叶长和LAI预测,模型对切花百合展叶数(N)、单叶叶长(L)和LAI预测值与实测值基于1：1线的决定系数(r2)值为0.96、0.82和0.97；相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)值为6.32%、8.78%和7.12%。
(3)水分对叶片最大总光合速率和干物质生产影响的模拟预测。利用水分处理试验数据资料,定量分析了水分对单叶最大总光合速率(P g,max)和初始光能利用率(ε)的影响。结果表明,当基质水势在-15kPa以上时,百合植株的P g,max和ε趋于稳定；当基质水势低于-15kPa时,则随着基质水势的降低而呈线性递减趋势。用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验。结果表明,模型对切花百合植株的叶片最大总光合速率(Pg,max/和植株总干重(BIOMASS)的预测值与实测值之间基于1：1线的决定系数(r2)分别为0.96,0.81,相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)分别为4.37%,10.54%
(4)水分对干物质分配影响的模拟预测。利用水分处理试验数据资料,定量分析了水分对切花百合地上部(花、茎、叶)和地下部各器官干物质分配指数(鳞茎、茎生根)动态的影响。结果表明,百合植株花、茎、叶、茎生根的分配指数(PIF、PIST、PIL、PIR)随着基质水势的升高而增加,到达-15kPa时不再升高,鳞茎的分配指数(PIB)随着基质水势的升高而下降,在-15kPa是不再下降。各器官花、茎、叶、鳞茎和茎生根的分配指数增加速率(rPIF、rPIST、rPIL、rPIB、rPIR、随着基质水势的升高而上升,达到-15kPa时不再变化。用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,模型对切花百合各器官(花、茎、叶、鳞茎、茎生根)干重(DMF、 DMST、DML、DMB、DMR)预测值与实测值之间基于1：1线的决定系数(r2)分别为0.96、0.95、0.86、0.95、0.85,相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)分别为19.18%、12.35%、19.42%、12.23%、31.73%。该模型对在不同水分处理下温室切花百合干物质分配动态的预测具有较好的解释性和预测性。
(5)水分对外观品质指标(株高、展叶数、花苞长、花苞直径)的动态影响的模拟预测。利用水分处理试验数据资料,定量分析了水分对切花百合外观品质各指标和出花率的影响。结果表明,基质水势对切花百合展叶数(N)的影响,各处理变化不显著,值为37leaves·pl-1.当基质水势在-15kPa以上时,各外观品质指标均无明显差异；当基质水势在-15kPa以下时,株高、花苞长和花苞直径外观指标的增长速率(rH、rFL、rFD)随着基质水势的下降而呈线性下降趋势,使得采收时株高(HH)、花苞长(FL)和花苞直径(FD)降低,影响了切花品质。用与建立模型相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,模型对切花百合NH、N、FL和FD预测值与实测值基于1：1线的决定系数(r2)值分别为0.97、0.96、0.97、0.89；相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)值分别为7.54%、6.32%、9.56%、1.15%。
(6)水分对出花率影响的模拟预测。不同水分处理采收时统计的各级(A级、B级、C级、D级)出花率的结果表明,A级和B级花的出花率(RA、RB)随着基质水势的升高而增加,当基质水势达到-15kPa时,不再增加；C级、D级花的出花率(RC、RD)随之基质水势的升高而降低,达到-15kPa是不再降低。基质水势在-15kPa以下时,RA、RB占的比例小,而RC、RD占的比例大,导致了切花品质的下降；在-15kPa以上,RA、RB占的比例大,而RC、RD占的比例小,提高了切花的品质。用与建立模型的相独立的试验数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,模型对切花百合的RA、RB、RC、RD预测值与实测值基于1：1线的决定系数(产)值为0.87；相对回归估计标准误(rRMSE)分别为6.41%。
本研究建立的模型可以根据定植日期、基质水势和温室光和有效辐射和温度信息动态预测切花百合‘索邦’的生长和外观品质指标及出花率。模型综合考虑了温度、光照和水分对切花百合的综合影响,采用基质水势而不是土壤含水量为水分指标,针对不同类型的土壤或基质建立含水量——水势关系特征曲线,可以为不同类型土壤或基质栽培百合‘索邦’的水分管理提供理论依据和决策支持。
Water is an essential factor which affects the crop growth and the formation of the growth and external quality. The aim of this study is to quantitatively investigate the effects of water on crop growth and external quality of cut Lilium. Experiments of Lilium 'Sorbonne'with different planting dates (2009.3.26,2009.4.26,2009.9.27) and different levels of water treatment (-4～-10kPa,-10～-15kPa,-15～25kPa,-25～40kPa) were conducted in a flower greenhouse in Naijing from March2009to January2010. Based on the model describing the effect of photo-thermal index (PTI) on greenhouse flower growth and external quality, we analyzed the effect of substrate water potential on the leaf area index (LAI), the maximal photosynthesis rate, dry matter production and partitioning of cut Lilium, meantime, collected the data of external quality including plant height, the number of leaf unfolding, flower length and flower diameter under different treatments, then developed a model to predict the growth, external quality, relative yield and validated the model with independent experimental data. The results showed a well predicted conclusion of LAI, dry weight and various external quality indices. This study provided the theoretical basis and decision making to water management during cut Lilium production. The main research results are follows:
(1) Determination of the critical value for substrate potential. According to our experiment and result analysis, all the growth and external quality indices linearly decrease along with the decreasing substrate water potential when its value is below-15kPa, but remain constant above-15kPa. Thus we deem-15kPa as the threshold value for cut Lilium growth.
(2) Predicting the effects of water on LAI of cut Lilium.The study quantitatively analyzed the maximum leaf length (Lmax), increasing rate of LAI (rLAI) and LAI under different water treatments. The results showed that Imax,rLAI and LAImax increased along with the increasing of substrate water potential, the two indexes were stable when the water potential attended-15kPa, but linearly decreased accompanied the decrease of water potential below-15kPa. Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted number of leaf unfolding, leaf length and LAI were0.96,0.82,0.97and6.32%,8.78%,7.12%, respectively.
(3) Predicting the effect of water on maximal photosynthesis rate and dry matter production of cut Lilium. The study quantitatively analyzed the maximum leaf gross photosynthesis rate (Pg,max) and initial photo-energy utilization ratio (ε) under different water treatments. The results showed that Pg,max and ε were almost the same when the water potential was above-15kPa, but linearly decreased accompanied the decrease of water potential below-15kPa. Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted for Pg,max and biomass were0.96,0.81and4.37%,10.54%, respectively.
(4) Predicting the effect of water on dry matter partitioning of cut Lilium. The study quantitatively analyzed the indexes of organs aboveground and underground under different water treatments. The results showed that the indexes for flower, stem, leaf, root (PIF, PIST, PIL, PIR) increased but bulb(PIB) decreased along with the increasing when the water potential was above-15kPa, respectively. And all the increasing rate of these indexes (rPIF, rPIST. rPIL.rPIR,rPIB) linearly increased accompanied the increase of water potential below-15kPa. Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted for the dry weight of organs (DMF, DMST, DML, DMB, DMR) were0.96,0.95,0.86,0.95,0.85and19.18%,12.35%,19.42%,12.23%,31.73%, respectively.
(5) Predicting the effect of water on external quality (plant height, leaf number, flower length, flower diameter) of cut Lilium. The study quantitatively analyzed the external quality under different water treatments. The results showed that the effect of water on cut Lilium total leaf number was not significant. The external quality showed no difference when the substrate water potential was above-15kPa, but the increasing rate of plant height, flower length and flower diameter (rH, rFL,rFD) linearly decreased along with the decrease of water potential below-15kPa, which resulted in the decrease of harvesting plant height (HH), flower length (FL) and flower diameter (FD). Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted for the HH, N, FL and FD were0.97,0.96,0.97,0.89and7.54%,6.32%,9.56%,1.15%, respectively.
(6) Predicting the effect of water on relative yield of cut Lilium. The study quantitatively added up the different ranks (rank A, B, C and D) of relative yield under different water treatments. The results showed that the rank A and B increased along with the increasing substrate water potential above-15kPa, but opposite to the rank C and D. when the substrate water potential was below-15kPa, the ratio of (RA+RB)/(RC-RD) decreased, which led to bad external quality. Independent data acquired to validate the model, the result showed that the coefficient of determination (r2) and the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) between the measured and predicted for the relative yield were0.87and6.41%, respectively.
This model is capacity for dynamicly predicting the cut Lilium growth, external quality and relative yield according to the date of planting, substrate water potential, PAR and temperature in greenhouse. In the model, we used substrate water potential to replace the subatrate water content and comprehensively considered the effect of temperature, light and water on cut Lilum which could be used in various types of soil or substrate, and provided the theoretical basis and decision making to water management during cut Lilium production.
引文
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