新国际分工视角下服务业与服务贸易相关性研究
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摘要
传统贸易理论认为服务业是服务贸易的基础，服务贸易发展以产业增长为条件，两者之间具有较强的相关性。因此，大量学者认为推动服务业增长的相关政策会相应提高服务贸易国际竞争力，推动贸易发展。但从实际情况来看，2000年到2009年全球服务业产业增加值年均增长2.7%，而全球服务贸易出口额年均增长达到9.9%，服务贸易增速快于服务产业增速。此外，美、澳、韩等国也都在十年间经历了一个由服务产业发展速度更快，到服务贸易发展速度更快的变化过程。本课题的理论着眼点在于，哪些因素在市场开放过程中使服务贸易快于产业的发展？这些因素发挥作用的机制是什么？这一研究既是将新-新贸易理论在服务贸易领域的拓展，又是将内生增长理论在开放经济方面与贸易理论相结合，具有重要的理论意义。
持续的世界经济失衡引发了全球愈演愈烈的贸易摩擦和国际金融体系的动荡，互利共赢基础上的全球经济良性循环和各国利益均衡将成为后危机时代新一轮经济全球化长期维持的两大基石。从结构上看，我国经济再平衡的关键在于服务业，特别是现代服务业比重的提升；从政策效果上看，全球经济再平衡的关键点是我国服务业与服务贸易相互作用的传递机制。在新的服务业国际分工体系内，随着服务提供流程的进一步细分化和服务价值链在全球范围内布局，如何加强产业政策与贸易政策相互配合，协调服务业与服务贸易发展，是亟待解决的重要问题。
全文分为四个主要部分：
第一部分包括导论和第一章，首先对本文的研究意义和研究方案进行了阐述，并介绍了所涉及的相关概念界定。进而回顾了文章研究所涉及的增长理论、服务贸易理论和区域货币一体化理论等。
第二部分是文章的主体，包括第二章到第六章。第二章首先通过世界主要经济体宏观层面的数据探讨服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响因素，分析了2000年以来服务贸易加速发展的原因。研究发现：科技创新、FDI和制度变革是造成服务贸易快于服务产业增长的主要原因，三者之间既相互影响，又相互制约，共同对服务业和服务贸易产生影响，使服务贸易快于服务产业的发展。
第三章到第五章则分别研究科技创新、FDI和制度变革对服务业与服务贸易相关性的作用机制和影响程度。其中，第三章通过构建动态贸易结构模型，并运用行业层面的相关数据，从理论和实证上分析了FDI、服务贸易波动与服务业增长之间的动态影响机制。研究发现：（1）在均衡增长路径上服务业增长与服务贸易发展正相关；（2）FDI对服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响程度取决于服务市场开放度和FDI外溢性作用力大小的比较；（3）由FDI导致的服务业市场结构变化会减弱服务业与服务贸易的相关性。第四章通过扩展Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg模型，并运用行业层面的相关数据，从理论和实证上分析了技术进步对服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响机制。研究发现：（1）静态上，技术进步推动服务外包的发展，不同外包形式的发展速度取决于不同分离技术的相对进步程度；（2）动态上，技术进步对服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响程度取决于市场开放度、服务业发展水平和服务业技术密集度；（3）通讯技术和服务业R&D投入通过全要素生产率的上升推动服务贸易更快的发展。第五章本文通过扩展货币一体化模型，并运用行业层面的相关数据，从理论和实证上考察了区域货币一体化对服务业和服务贸易相关性的影响。研究发现：（1）区域货币一体化会通过降低隐性贸易成本促进服务贸易发展；（2）区域货币一体化和服务业与服务贸易相关性负相关；（3）货币一体化效应对服务业发展水平较低，市场开放度较弱的国家影响更大。
第六章回归到我国的实际情况，从行业层面分析了我国服务业内部各部门发展水平与贸易结构的相关性。特别是服务业内部产业结构变化对贸易结构的基础作用及贸易结构变动对产业结构的牵引作用，从增长和结构两个维度揭示了我国服务业内部各行业产业与贸易的发展变化关系。
第三部分是福利分析，包括第七章。服务业与服务贸易相关性的差异决定了服务业发展模式的区别，本章选取中国和印度的软件行业探讨内向型和外向型发展模式对社会福利，也就是相对工资水平的影响。研究发现，软件产业外包业务在短期内对印度和中国服务业相对工资水平都具有正向促进作用，对印度软件业这种外向型发展模式的作用更大。但在长期则对中国这种内向型发展模式影响更大。
第四部分是政策体系的构建，包括第八章。首先从整体和重点行业两个层面对协调服务业与服务贸易发展，推动我国服务业健康、平衡增长提出政策建议。然后，对我国参与区域经济金融合作提出政策建议，特别是基于服务业和服务贸易的角度对区域金融合作的方式提出建议和设想。
本文可能的创新之处包括：
（1）在同一个分析框架内研究资本跨国流动与技术外溢对服务业和服务贸易的影响。无论是新新贸易理论中的服务外包研究，还是新增长理论中的开放经济模型，都没有将FDI和技术进步纳入一个分析框架中研究服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响程度和演变路径，这也是现有研究体系的缺陷。本文将两者纳入同一个动态贸易结构模型中，考察动态路径上资本跨国流动和技术外溢的作用机制。
（2）扩展Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg模型，用以分析新国际分工体系下服务业与服务贸易协调发展规律。新新贸易理论的外包模型并没有考虑服务贸易的特殊性，特别是没有将服务在生产与消费上进行分离的成本纳入模型。本文扩展了经典的Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg模型，借鉴其通信成本的设计以外，在模型中加入服务生产与消费的分离成本，使其更符合服务提供过程的新特征。
（3）在研究方法上，将服务外包模型的比较静态分析方法动态化。本文借助内生增长模型的分析方法，将传统的服务外包模型置于一个两国开放框架内，进而在一定的参数区间内，考察在一条平衡增长路径上FDI和技术进步对服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响。这是将服务外包模型动态化的一种创新尝试。
It has been pointed out by classic international trade theory that service industry is foundationto a skyscraper as is to service trade while service trade can not develop without the support ofservice industry. The above statement established the solid co-relationship between serive tade andservice industry. Future more, it becomes a common belief held by many scholars that policiespromoting the increase of service industry will inevitably spped up the development of servicetrade. However, it is to our abservation that while the annual increase of global service tradeamounted to9.9%from the year of2000to2009, the annual increase of global service industryonly comes2.7%. Moreover, major economies like United States, Australia and Korea, allexperienced the tramendace change from enjoying a more speedy increase in service industry toservice trade. Therefore the thoeratical breakthrough we expect to achive lies in the factorsexalerating the comparative growth of service trade and the mechanism behind it. The possibleoutcomes embracing ahead will not only be a supplementation to service trade theory, but also aapplication of the thorey of endogence growth in trade issues.
Under the circumstance of upgrading trade friction and the turbulence of global fincialsystem casued by ongoing world economic imbalance, beneficial economic circle and interestbalance are foundations of the new global economic growth in the era of post global economiccrisis. In the view of structure, the key of the rebalance of Chinese economy lies in serviceeconomy, especially the increasing shere of morden service sector. In the view of the effectivenessof policy, the key of global economic rebalance lies in the transmission mechanism of serviceindustry and serive trade. The character of new international division of labor in service is featuredby the deeper fragmentation of service product and the globalization of service chain. It hasbecome a critical issue that service trade and service industry are coordinated in order to maintaina more effective policy system.
The dissertation is developed into four main parts:
The first part is consisting of introduction and chapter one which provide the insight ofresearch significance and research design. The concerning definition and the review of theories arealso presented in this part.
As the most important part, part two includes chapter two to chapter six. First and foremost,chapter two identified the factors affecting the correlations of service trade and service industry byanalyzing macro datas of the main economise in the world. We discovered that three mutrullyinfluencing factors that plaied the most important roles are innovation, FDI and institutionalreform. All three factors together promote the comparative increase of service trade to serviceindustry.
The mechanism and the extent of impact of innovation, FDI and institutional reform arediscussed from chapter three to chapter five. Chapter three, from theoretical and empirical view,discovered the dynamic mechanism of FDI affecting the correlation of service trade and serviceindustry by constructing the dynamic service trade model and employing industrial level data. Thestudy revealed:(1) service export is positively correlated with the growth of service section on aequilibrium growth path;(2) the effect of market liberalization on the correlation of service exportand growth could be negative or positive, depending on the comparison of FDI spillover andextend of internationalization;(3) The market structure change caused by FDI will draw the growth of service section away from previous equilibrium growth path.
Through the extension of Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg model and also applying the industriallevel data, chapter four focused on the mechanism of technical innovation on the correlation ofservice trade and service industry. This chapter discovered:(1) statically, technical innovationpromot service outsourcing, the development of different form of outsourcing depends on thecomparative advancement of different service segmentation technology.(2) dynamically, theextent of impact of technical innovation on the correlation of service trade and service industrydepends on market openness, the development of service economy and the technical concentrationof service industry.(3) the channel of communication technology and R&D investment promotingservice trade is through the increase of TFP.
By extending Monetary Integration Model, chapter five discovered the dynamic effect ofmonetary integration on service industry and service trade on the balanced growth path of serviceindustry. The study found out:(1) common currency will promote service trade through bringingdown the invisible trade cost;(2) monetary integration is negatively correlated with the connectionof service industry and service trade;(3) these two effects are particularly stronger for lessdeveloped countries with service industry and less open countries.
Chapter six returned to the reality of China from where we discovered the differentcorrelations of service trade and service industry based industrial level data. This chapter alsorevealed the two way effect of service trade and service industry from the perspective of growthand structure change.
Chapter seven alone stands for part three which provide a welfare analysis. The developmentmode of service industry varies according to different correlations of service trade and serviceindustry. This part is aimed to find out the defferent impact of domestic oriented mode andinternational oriented mode on national walfare, in this case the comparative wage level. Citingthe software industry of China and India as an example, the study discoved: as a typicalinternational oriented industry, the software industry of India enjoys a higher comparative wageincrease from service outsourcing for a short term, while, as the typical dometic oriented industry,Chiese software industry takes a long term advantage.
Part four includes the last chapter which is designed to offer the advice on construction ofpolicy system. Recommendations to promt the balanced development of service trade and serviceindustry are proposed both on gereral and specific industry’s perspectives. Furthermore, thechapter also made the suggestion on how to accelerate the reginal economic cooperation andfinancial colabration from the perspective of service industry and service trade.
The possible innovations of this paper are:
(1) This paper analyzed both FDI and technical spillover under the same framework. Neithernew new trade theory, nor new growth theory applied a unified framework to study the impact ofFDI and technical innovation on correlation of service trade and service industry. This paperdeveloped a structural trade model in which FDI and innovation spillover are combined on thesame balance growth path.
(2) This paper extent the Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg to better fit in the analysis of serive trade.Lacking consideration of the special features of service trade, new new trade theory failed tointroduce a service segmentation cost into the model which is the breakthrough of this paper. Bydedigning such a segmentation cost this paper better depicted the globalization of serviceproduction.
(3) The combination of dynamic and static analysis is presented as far as method isconcerned. Based on the clssic endogence growth model, this paper embedded an outsourcingmodel into a open economic model. Therefore the impact of FDI and technical innovation wasanalysed on a balanced growth path.
持续的世界经济失衡引发了全球愈演愈烈的贸易摩擦和国际金融体系的动荡，互利共赢基础上的全球经济良性循环和各国利益均衡将成为后危机时代新一轮经济全球化长期维持的两大基石。从结构上看，我国经济再平衡的关键在于服务业，特别是现代服务业比重的提升；从政策效果上看，全球经济再平衡的关键点是我国服务业与服务贸易相互作用的传递机制。在新的服务业国际分工体系内，随着服务提供流程的进一步细分化和服务价值链在全球范围内布局，如何加强产业政策与贸易政策相互配合，协调服务业与服务贸易发展，是亟待解决的重要问题。
全文分为四个主要部分：
第一部分包括导论和第一章，首先对本文的研究意义和研究方案进行了阐述，并介绍了所涉及的相关概念界定。进而回顾了文章研究所涉及的增长理论、服务贸易理论和区域货币一体化理论等。
第二部分是文章的主体，包括第二章到第六章。第二章首先通过世界主要经济体宏观层面的数据探讨服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响因素，分析了2000年以来服务贸易加速发展的原因。研究发现：科技创新、FDI和制度变革是造成服务贸易快于服务产业增长的主要原因，三者之间既相互影响，又相互制约，共同对服务业和服务贸易产生影响，使服务贸易快于服务产业的发展。
第三章到第五章则分别研究科技创新、FDI和制度变革对服务业与服务贸易相关性的作用机制和影响程度。其中，第三章通过构建动态贸易结构模型，并运用行业层面的相关数据，从理论和实证上分析了FDI、服务贸易波动与服务业增长之间的动态影响机制。研究发现：（1）在均衡增长路径上服务业增长与服务贸易发展正相关；（2）FDI对服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响程度取决于服务市场开放度和FDI外溢性作用力大小的比较；（3）由FDI导致的服务业市场结构变化会减弱服务业与服务贸易的相关性。第四章通过扩展Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg模型，并运用行业层面的相关数据，从理论和实证上分析了技术进步对服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响机制。研究发现：（1）静态上，技术进步推动服务外包的发展，不同外包形式的发展速度取决于不同分离技术的相对进步程度；（2）动态上，技术进步对服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响程度取决于市场开放度、服务业发展水平和服务业技术密集度；（3）通讯技术和服务业R&D投入通过全要素生产率的上升推动服务贸易更快的发展。第五章本文通过扩展货币一体化模型，并运用行业层面的相关数据，从理论和实证上考察了区域货币一体化对服务业和服务贸易相关性的影响。研究发现：（1）区域货币一体化会通过降低隐性贸易成本促进服务贸易发展；（2）区域货币一体化和服务业与服务贸易相关性负相关；（3）货币一体化效应对服务业发展水平较低，市场开放度较弱的国家影响更大。
第六章回归到我国的实际情况，从行业层面分析了我国服务业内部各部门发展水平与贸易结构的相关性。特别是服务业内部产业结构变化对贸易结构的基础作用及贸易结构变动对产业结构的牵引作用，从增长和结构两个维度揭示了我国服务业内部各行业产业与贸易的发展变化关系。
第三部分是福利分析，包括第七章。服务业与服务贸易相关性的差异决定了服务业发展模式的区别，本章选取中国和印度的软件行业探讨内向型和外向型发展模式对社会福利，也就是相对工资水平的影响。研究发现，软件产业外包业务在短期内对印度和中国服务业相对工资水平都具有正向促进作用，对印度软件业这种外向型发展模式的作用更大。但在长期则对中国这种内向型发展模式影响更大。
第四部分是政策体系的构建，包括第八章。首先从整体和重点行业两个层面对协调服务业与服务贸易发展，推动我国服务业健康、平衡增长提出政策建议。然后，对我国参与区域经济金融合作提出政策建议，特别是基于服务业和服务贸易的角度对区域金融合作的方式提出建议和设想。
本文可能的创新之处包括：
（1）在同一个分析框架内研究资本跨国流动与技术外溢对服务业和服务贸易的影响。无论是新新贸易理论中的服务外包研究，还是新增长理论中的开放经济模型，都没有将FDI和技术进步纳入一个分析框架中研究服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响程度和演变路径，这也是现有研究体系的缺陷。本文将两者纳入同一个动态贸易结构模型中，考察动态路径上资本跨国流动和技术外溢的作用机制。
（2）扩展Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg模型，用以分析新国际分工体系下服务业与服务贸易协调发展规律。新新贸易理论的外包模型并没有考虑服务贸易的特殊性，特别是没有将服务在生产与消费上进行分离的成本纳入模型。本文扩展了经典的Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg模型，借鉴其通信成本的设计以外，在模型中加入服务生产与消费的分离成本，使其更符合服务提供过程的新特征。
（3）在研究方法上，将服务外包模型的比较静态分析方法动态化。本文借助内生增长模型的分析方法，将传统的服务外包模型置于一个两国开放框架内，进而在一定的参数区间内，考察在一条平衡增长路径上FDI和技术进步对服务业与服务贸易相关性的影响。这是将服务外包模型动态化的一种创新尝试。
It has been pointed out by classic international trade theory that service industry is foundationto a skyscraper as is to service trade while service trade can not develop without the support ofservice industry. The above statement established the solid co-relationship between serive tade andservice industry. Future more, it becomes a common belief held by many scholars that policiespromoting the increase of service industry will inevitably spped up the development of servicetrade. However, it is to our abservation that while the annual increase of global service tradeamounted to9.9%from the year of2000to2009, the annual increase of global service industryonly comes2.7%. Moreover, major economies like United States, Australia and Korea, allexperienced the tramendace change from enjoying a more speedy increase in service industry toservice trade. Therefore the thoeratical breakthrough we expect to achive lies in the factorsexalerating the comparative growth of service trade and the mechanism behind it. The possibleoutcomes embracing ahead will not only be a supplementation to service trade theory, but also aapplication of the thorey of endogence growth in trade issues.
Under the circumstance of upgrading trade friction and the turbulence of global fincialsystem casued by ongoing world economic imbalance, beneficial economic circle and interestbalance are foundations of the new global economic growth in the era of post global economiccrisis. In the view of structure, the key of the rebalance of Chinese economy lies in serviceeconomy, especially the increasing shere of morden service sector. In the view of the effectivenessof policy, the key of global economic rebalance lies in the transmission mechanism of serviceindustry and serive trade. The character of new international division of labor in service is featuredby the deeper fragmentation of service product and the globalization of service chain. It hasbecome a critical issue that service trade and service industry are coordinated in order to maintaina more effective policy system.
The dissertation is developed into four main parts:
The first part is consisting of introduction and chapter one which provide the insight ofresearch significance and research design. The concerning definition and the review of theories arealso presented in this part.
As the most important part, part two includes chapter two to chapter six. First and foremost,chapter two identified the factors affecting the correlations of service trade and service industry byanalyzing macro datas of the main economise in the world. We discovered that three mutrullyinfluencing factors that plaied the most important roles are innovation, FDI and institutionalreform. All three factors together promote the comparative increase of service trade to serviceindustry.
The mechanism and the extent of impact of innovation, FDI and institutional reform arediscussed from chapter three to chapter five. Chapter three, from theoretical and empirical view,discovered the dynamic mechanism of FDI affecting the correlation of service trade and serviceindustry by constructing the dynamic service trade model and employing industrial level data. Thestudy revealed:(1) service export is positively correlated with the growth of service section on aequilibrium growth path;(2) the effect of market liberalization on the correlation of service exportand growth could be negative or positive, depending on the comparison of FDI spillover andextend of internationalization;(3) The market structure change caused by FDI will draw the growth of service section away from previous equilibrium growth path.
Through the extension of Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg model and also applying the industriallevel data, chapter four focused on the mechanism of technical innovation on the correlation ofservice trade and service industry. This chapter discovered:(1) statically, technical innovationpromot service outsourcing, the development of different form of outsourcing depends on thecomparative advancement of different service segmentation technology.(2) dynamically, theextent of impact of technical innovation on the correlation of service trade and service industrydepends on market openness, the development of service economy and the technical concentrationof service industry.(3) the channel of communication technology and R&D investment promotingservice trade is through the increase of TFP.
By extending Monetary Integration Model, chapter five discovered the dynamic effect ofmonetary integration on service industry and service trade on the balanced growth path of serviceindustry. The study found out:(1) common currency will promote service trade through bringingdown the invisible trade cost;(2) monetary integration is negatively correlated with the connectionof service industry and service trade;(3) these two effects are particularly stronger for lessdeveloped countries with service industry and less open countries.
Chapter six returned to the reality of China from where we discovered the differentcorrelations of service trade and service industry based industrial level data. This chapter alsorevealed the two way effect of service trade and service industry from the perspective of growthand structure change.
Chapter seven alone stands for part three which provide a welfare analysis. The developmentmode of service industry varies according to different correlations of service trade and serviceindustry. This part is aimed to find out the defferent impact of domestic oriented mode andinternational oriented mode on national walfare, in this case the comparative wage level. Citingthe software industry of China and India as an example, the study discoved: as a typicalinternational oriented industry, the software industry of India enjoys a higher comparative wageincrease from service outsourcing for a short term, while, as the typical dometic oriented industry,Chiese software industry takes a long term advantage.
Part four includes the last chapter which is designed to offer the advice on construction ofpolicy system. Recommendations to promt the balanced development of service trade and serviceindustry are proposed both on gereral and specific industry’s perspectives. Furthermore, thechapter also made the suggestion on how to accelerate the reginal economic cooperation andfinancial colabration from the perspective of service industry and service trade.
The possible innovations of this paper are:
(1) This paper analyzed both FDI and technical spillover under the same framework. Neithernew new trade theory, nor new growth theory applied a unified framework to study the impact ofFDI and technical innovation on correlation of service trade and service industry. This paperdeveloped a structural trade model in which FDI and innovation spillover are combined on thesame balance growth path.
(2) This paper extent the Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg to better fit in the analysis of serive trade.Lacking consideration of the special features of service trade, new new trade theory failed tointroduce a service segmentation cost into the model which is the breakthrough of this paper. Bydedigning such a segmentation cost this paper better depicted the globalization of serviceproduction.
(3) The combination of dynamic and static analysis is presented as far as method isconcerned. Based on the clssic endogence growth model, this paper embedded an outsourcingmodel into a open economic model. Therefore the impact of FDI and technical innovation wasanalysed on a balanced growth path.
引文
①Ulrich Volz. Prospects for Monetary Cooperation and Integration in East Asia. MIT Press. June2010
②Ulrich Volz. Prospects for Monetary Cooperation and Integration in East Asia. MIT Press. June2010
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