要素和市场约束下海南产业结构优化模式与路径选择
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摘要
2009年12月国务院发布《关于推进海南国际旅游岛建设发展的若干意见》，海南作为国际旅游岛建设的国家战略正式起步。国际旅游岛建设要求海南必须走一条“科技含量高、经济效益好、能源消耗低、环境污染少、资源优势得到充分发展”的新型工业化道路。同时，在全球严重的金融危机背景下，西方许多发达国家经济复苏乏力、贸易保护主义抬头，这一“外部冲击”对海南产业结构优化亦造成严重负面影响。
1978-2010年海南三次产业资本存量结构和就业结构的变化均较为单调。海南要素生产率水平及其增长率变化在三次产业之间都存在较大的差异，满足“结构红利假说”的前提条件。1978-2010年海南要素生产率增长主要来源于内部增长效应。劳动要素转移在1978-2010年“结构红利假说”一直成立，而资本要素转移只在前期即1978-1994年成立，可见1993年房地产泡沫对海南经济增长产生了深远的负面影响。
海南是一个典型的岛屿经济体。要素和市场双重严重约束导致海南产业结构畸形化和低度化，主要表现为在第一产业增加值比重偏高、第二产业和第三产业增加值偏低。这导致三次产业贡献率和拉动率具有不确定性。纵观世界工业化史，自从18世纪后期英国开始工业革命、走向工业社会以来，人类社会曾先后经历过英美模式、日德模式、新兴工业化模式以及现代工业化模式，这四种模式是不断演进与相互融合的，他们均能从供给和需求的角度放松产业结构优化约束条件。海南产业结构优化面临上述双重严重约束，仅依靠单路径模式是很难奏效的，必须借鉴世界工业化史上各种成功模式中合理的元素，实施“多路径融合模式”。
市场配置具有产业结构优化效应。一方面市场配置能使资源利用达到帕累托效率，促进产业结构合理化；另一方面，市场竞争将会激励企业通过科技创新不断满足消费者的新需求，提高需求层次，促进产业结构高度化。本文根据樊纲、卓勇良等人的研究方法，从所有制结构、政府职能转变、市场发育以及体制活力和外向程度等方面对海南市场化进程进行了比较研究。近10多年来，海南市场化改革无论是得分还是排名均有一定的进步。随着市场力量的强化，企业自主性逐步增强，区域比较优势得到发挥，导致比较优势相似的省区间产业结构趋同，而资源条件不同的省区产业结构趋异。研究发现，海南市场化改革与产业结构关系符合上述一般规律。可见随着市场化改革的深入，同时由于海南自然禀赋结构与其他省份差异悬殊，海南产业结构相似系数在逐步缩小，市场化进程深化具有趋异效应。目前市场配置的趋异效应实质上就是海南产业结构趋向合理化的表现。
地方政府可以通过行使经济职能，选择充分的、适当的产业政策工具，促进产业结构优化。地方政府行为面临财政分权体制、指标考核机制以及官员选拔制度等约束条件，再给定自利、有限理性、行动一致性以及独立性四个假设，地方政府行为目标与微观主体并无二致。海南地方政府可供选择的主要产业政策工具包括：投融资政策、财税政策、土地政策以及对外开放政策。由于它们在产业结构调整中各有优势和劣势，在促进产业结构调整方面，必须加强产业政策之间的有效配合。政府干预经济的原因是“市场失灵”，而市场失灵的主要原因是外部经济。由政府出面对负外部经济的产生者进行征税、对正外部性的产生者给予相应的补贴，就可以有效地消除私人成本与社会成本、私人利益与社会利益之间的偏差，从而保证市场机制正常发挥合理资源配置的作用，促进产业结构优化。规模经济和产业关联为海南地方政府有效干预旅游业提供了依据。本文实证研究表明，海南政府干预具有较强产业结构调整效应。
高等教育发展不仅能促进教育质量的提升，进而直接优化产业结构，而且有利于通过科技创新培育高级要素，放松海南产业结构优化约束条件。从供给方面看，科技创新对产业结构优化的影响，主要是通过提高劳动者素质、改善生产的物质技术基础、扩大劳动对象范围、提高管理水平等途径来实现的；从需求方面看，科技创新对产业结构优化的影响，则是通过影响投资、消费以及出口需求等，借助于需求结构变动来实现的。为了分别对改革开放以来和建省办特区以来海南信息化和工业化的互动关系进行实证研究，本文建立两个VAR模型，采用1978-2010年和1987-2010年的相关数据进行回归分析。从估计的结果来看，改革开放以来、特别是建省办特区以来，海南信息化对工业化具有强劲的正面影响，同时工业化也对信息化具有强劲的正面影响。
改革开放以来，海南经济开放度经历了一个先升后降的大周期。通过回归分析可知，进口贸易和吸收FDI对海南具有较强的正技术溢出效应，而出口贸易则对海南不具有技术溢出效应。出口贸易和进口贸易对海南产业结构优化具有负面影响或不显著的正面影响，而FDI以及人力资本存量对海南产业结构优化具有正面影响。海南三次产业内部现代热带农业、新型工业以及现代服务业等在国民经济中的地位非常薄弱。海南在国际旅游岛建设中必须与市场配置、政府有效干预以及科技创新有机结合，实施多路径融合模式，才能快速促进海南产业结构优化。
The State Council issued " the certain opinions on promoting the construction ofHainan international tourism island development " in December2009, and theconstruction of Hainan international tourism island as a national strategy startedformally. The construction of international tourism island demanded that Hainan musttake a new type industrialization road of " high technological content, good economicreturns, low energy consumption, less environmental pollution, full developingresource advantages ". In the context of the serious global financial crisis, economicrecovery is very slow and trade protectionism is prevalent in many western developedcountries, and the "external shocks" caused serious negative effect on Hainanindustrial structure optimization.
The change of Hainan three industrial capital stock structure and employmentstructure are relatively monotonous in1978-2010. The changes of Hainanproductivity level and its growth rate among the three industries exist biggerdifference, which meets " structure bonus hypothesis " premise condition. Hainan TFPgrowth comes mainly from internal growth effect in1978-2010."Structure bonushypothesis " of labor elements transfer has long been established in1978-2010,but thecapital transfer has been established in the early stage,that is,in1978-1994.it is truethat the real estate bubble in1993produced far-reaching negative effect on Hainaneconomy growth.
Hainan is a typical island economy. The double serious constraints of elementsand market lead to Hainan industrial structure′s deformity and low,which mainlyreflected that the proportion of the first industry added value is high, and theproportion of the second industry and the tertiary industry added value is too low andmakes to contribution rate and the pull rate of the three industries uncertain.Reviewing world industrialized history, since Britain having begun the industrialrevolution in late eighteenth Century into the industrial society, human society hasexperienced the Anglo-American mode, Japan and Germany mode, new burgeoningindustrialized mode and modern industrialized mode.The four modes are fused to eachother, and they can relax the constraint conditions of the industrial structureoptimization from supply and demand perspective. Because of the optimization ofHainan industrial structure facing the double serious constraints, Hainan is very difficult to optimize industrial structure depending only on the single path mode.Itmust draw lessons from reasonable elements of world industrialization success mode,and implement "the multi path integration mode ".
The market configuration has the effect of industrial structure optimization. Onone hand the market allocation can make use of resources into Pareto efficiency, andpromote the rationalization of industrial structure; on the other hand, the marketcompetes will encourage enterprises through technological innovation, meetconstantly consumer for the new demand, improved hierarchy of needs, and promotethe upgrading of industrial structure. According to the research methods of Fang Gangand Zhuo Yongliang, et al., the paper undertakes comparative study on marketingprocess from the ownership structure, the transformation of government functions,market development and system dynamic and extroversion degree et al.. In recent10years, Hainan Marketing reform have certain progress whether scores or rankings.With the market force strengthened, the autonomy of enterprises gradually has beenenhanced, the regional comparative advantages have been developed, leading theregions of the similar comparative advantage into the convergence of industrialstructure, and the regions of the different resource condition into the divergence ofindustrial structure. The study finds, Hainan market-oriented reform and therelationship of industrial structure meet the general law above. Developing marketingreform, with Hainan's natural endowment structure different from other provinces,similar coefficient of Hainan industrial structure is narrowing stage by stage, and thedeveiopment of the marketing process has divergence effect. At present thedivergence effect of the market allocation is essentially the performance of Hainanindustrial structure rationalization.
Through performing economic function and selecting the adequate andappropriate industrial policies,the local government may promote industrial structureoptimization. The local government behaviors face with the constraint conditions offiscal decentralization system, index evaluation mechanism and official selectionsystem et al,then given four hypotheses about the self-interest, limited rationality,action consistency and independence et al., the objective of the local government is tomaximize the effectiveness,as the microcosmic main body. Available major industrialpolicy tools of Hainan local government include: investment and financing policy,taxation policy, land policy and the policy of opening to the outside world et al..Because they have its own advantages and disadvantages in the adjustment ofindustrial structure, we must strengthen effective cooperation between industrial policies with the promotion of the industrial structure adjustment. The cause ofgovernment intervention in the economy is "market failure", and the main reasons ofmarket failure are external economy. Taxing at the generators of negative externaleconomic, and giving corresponding allowance at the generators of positive externaleconomic, the government can eliminate effectively the difference of the private costand social cost, and the deviation of the private interest and social interest, ensure thenormal function of reasonable allocation resources of the market mechanism, andpromote the industrial structure optimization. Scale economy and industrial relationsprovide the basis for Hainan local government interventing effectively tourism. In thispaper, the empirical research shows that the Hainan government intervention hasstrong effect of industrial structure adjustment.
The development of higher education not only can promote the development ofeducation industry, and optimize directly the industrial structure, but also cancultivate advanced elements, and relax the constraints of Hainan industry structureoptimization through scientific and technological innovation.From supply side,scientific and technological innovation has industrial structure optimization effect,mainly through improving laborer quality, improving the production corporealtechnology basis, enlarging labor object scope, and improving the level ofmanagement and other ways to achieve; from demand side, scientific andtechnological innovation has industrial structure optimization effect, mainly throughinfluencing investment, consumption and export demand, with the help of demandstructure change to achieve. In order to research empirically the interactiverelationship between the informatization and industrialization,respectively since thereform and opening up and since building a province and establishing the special zonein Hainan, this paper establishes two VAR model, and conduct regressionestimation,using the relevant data in1978-2010years and in1987-2010years. Fromthe estimation result, since the reform and opening up, especially since building aprovince and establishing the special zone, Hainan informatization has a strongpositive effect on industrialization, and at the same time the industrialization also hasa strong positive effect on informatization.
Hainan open economy has experienced a fall after rising big cycle since thereform and opening up. Through regression analysis, the import trade and theabsorption of FDI in Hainan has a strong positive technology spillover effect, and theexport trade in Hainan has a strong negative spillover effect. Export and import tradehave a negative effect or an unremakable positive effect on Hainan industrial structure optimization, while FDI and the stock of human capital have a positive effect onHainan industrial structure optimization. In Hainan three industrial intern, tropicalmodern agriculture, new typye industry and modern service industry is very weak inthe status of the national economy. In the development of the international tourismisland, Hainan must fuse the market allocation, the effective government interventionand the innovation of science and technology, implement multi path integration mode,and promote Hainan industrial structure optimization.
1978-2010年海南三次产业资本存量结构和就业结构的变化均较为单调。海南要素生产率水平及其增长率变化在三次产业之间都存在较大的差异，满足“结构红利假说”的前提条件。1978-2010年海南要素生产率增长主要来源于内部增长效应。劳动要素转移在1978-2010年“结构红利假说”一直成立，而资本要素转移只在前期即1978-1994年成立，可见1993年房地产泡沫对海南经济增长产生了深远的负面影响。
海南是一个典型的岛屿经济体。要素和市场双重严重约束导致海南产业结构畸形化和低度化，主要表现为在第一产业增加值比重偏高、第二产业和第三产业增加值偏低。这导致三次产业贡献率和拉动率具有不确定性。纵观世界工业化史，自从18世纪后期英国开始工业革命、走向工业社会以来，人类社会曾先后经历过英美模式、日德模式、新兴工业化模式以及现代工业化模式，这四种模式是不断演进与相互融合的，他们均能从供给和需求的角度放松产业结构优化约束条件。海南产业结构优化面临上述双重严重约束，仅依靠单路径模式是很难奏效的，必须借鉴世界工业化史上各种成功模式中合理的元素，实施“多路径融合模式”。
市场配置具有产业结构优化效应。一方面市场配置能使资源利用达到帕累托效率，促进产业结构合理化；另一方面，市场竞争将会激励企业通过科技创新不断满足消费者的新需求，提高需求层次，促进产业结构高度化。本文根据樊纲、卓勇良等人的研究方法，从所有制结构、政府职能转变、市场发育以及体制活力和外向程度等方面对海南市场化进程进行了比较研究。近10多年来，海南市场化改革无论是得分还是排名均有一定的进步。随着市场力量的强化，企业自主性逐步增强，区域比较优势得到发挥，导致比较优势相似的省区间产业结构趋同，而资源条件不同的省区产业结构趋异。研究发现，海南市场化改革与产业结构关系符合上述一般规律。可见随着市场化改革的深入，同时由于海南自然禀赋结构与其他省份差异悬殊，海南产业结构相似系数在逐步缩小，市场化进程深化具有趋异效应。目前市场配置的趋异效应实质上就是海南产业结构趋向合理化的表现。
地方政府可以通过行使经济职能，选择充分的、适当的产业政策工具，促进产业结构优化。地方政府行为面临财政分权体制、指标考核机制以及官员选拔制度等约束条件，再给定自利、有限理性、行动一致性以及独立性四个假设，地方政府行为目标与微观主体并无二致。海南地方政府可供选择的主要产业政策工具包括：投融资政策、财税政策、土地政策以及对外开放政策。由于它们在产业结构调整中各有优势和劣势，在促进产业结构调整方面，必须加强产业政策之间的有效配合。政府干预经济的原因是“市场失灵”，而市场失灵的主要原因是外部经济。由政府出面对负外部经济的产生者进行征税、对正外部性的产生者给予相应的补贴，就可以有效地消除私人成本与社会成本、私人利益与社会利益之间的偏差，从而保证市场机制正常发挥合理资源配置的作用，促进产业结构优化。规模经济和产业关联为海南地方政府有效干预旅游业提供了依据。本文实证研究表明，海南政府干预具有较强产业结构调整效应。
高等教育发展不仅能促进教育质量的提升，进而直接优化产业结构，而且有利于通过科技创新培育高级要素，放松海南产业结构优化约束条件。从供给方面看，科技创新对产业结构优化的影响，主要是通过提高劳动者素质、改善生产的物质技术基础、扩大劳动对象范围、提高管理水平等途径来实现的；从需求方面看，科技创新对产业结构优化的影响，则是通过影响投资、消费以及出口需求等，借助于需求结构变动来实现的。为了分别对改革开放以来和建省办特区以来海南信息化和工业化的互动关系进行实证研究，本文建立两个VAR模型，采用1978-2010年和1987-2010年的相关数据进行回归分析。从估计的结果来看，改革开放以来、特别是建省办特区以来，海南信息化对工业化具有强劲的正面影响，同时工业化也对信息化具有强劲的正面影响。
改革开放以来，海南经济开放度经历了一个先升后降的大周期。通过回归分析可知，进口贸易和吸收FDI对海南具有较强的正技术溢出效应，而出口贸易则对海南不具有技术溢出效应。出口贸易和进口贸易对海南产业结构优化具有负面影响或不显著的正面影响，而FDI以及人力资本存量对海南产业结构优化具有正面影响。海南三次产业内部现代热带农业、新型工业以及现代服务业等在国民经济中的地位非常薄弱。海南在国际旅游岛建设中必须与市场配置、政府有效干预以及科技创新有机结合，实施多路径融合模式，才能快速促进海南产业结构优化。
The State Council issued " the certain opinions on promoting the construction ofHainan international tourism island development " in December2009, and theconstruction of Hainan international tourism island as a national strategy startedformally. The construction of international tourism island demanded that Hainan musttake a new type industrialization road of " high technological content, good economicreturns, low energy consumption, less environmental pollution, full developingresource advantages ". In the context of the serious global financial crisis, economicrecovery is very slow and trade protectionism is prevalent in many western developedcountries, and the "external shocks" caused serious negative effect on Hainanindustrial structure optimization.
The change of Hainan three industrial capital stock structure and employmentstructure are relatively monotonous in1978-2010. The changes of Hainanproductivity level and its growth rate among the three industries exist biggerdifference, which meets " structure bonus hypothesis " premise condition. Hainan TFPgrowth comes mainly from internal growth effect in1978-2010."Structure bonushypothesis " of labor elements transfer has long been established in1978-2010,but thecapital transfer has been established in the early stage,that is,in1978-1994.it is truethat the real estate bubble in1993produced far-reaching negative effect on Hainaneconomy growth.
Hainan is a typical island economy. The double serious constraints of elementsand market lead to Hainan industrial structure′s deformity and low,which mainlyreflected that the proportion of the first industry added value is high, and theproportion of the second industry and the tertiary industry added value is too low andmakes to contribution rate and the pull rate of the three industries uncertain.Reviewing world industrialized history, since Britain having begun the industrialrevolution in late eighteenth Century into the industrial society, human society hasexperienced the Anglo-American mode, Japan and Germany mode, new burgeoningindustrialized mode and modern industrialized mode.The four modes are fused to eachother, and they can relax the constraint conditions of the industrial structureoptimization from supply and demand perspective. Because of the optimization ofHainan industrial structure facing the double serious constraints, Hainan is very difficult to optimize industrial structure depending only on the single path mode.Itmust draw lessons from reasonable elements of world industrialization success mode,and implement "the multi path integration mode ".
The market configuration has the effect of industrial structure optimization. Onone hand the market allocation can make use of resources into Pareto efficiency, andpromote the rationalization of industrial structure; on the other hand, the marketcompetes will encourage enterprises through technological innovation, meetconstantly consumer for the new demand, improved hierarchy of needs, and promotethe upgrading of industrial structure. According to the research methods of Fang Gangand Zhuo Yongliang, et al., the paper undertakes comparative study on marketingprocess from the ownership structure, the transformation of government functions,market development and system dynamic and extroversion degree et al.. In recent10years, Hainan Marketing reform have certain progress whether scores or rankings.With the market force strengthened, the autonomy of enterprises gradually has beenenhanced, the regional comparative advantages have been developed, leading theregions of the similar comparative advantage into the convergence of industrialstructure, and the regions of the different resource condition into the divergence ofindustrial structure. The study finds, Hainan market-oriented reform and therelationship of industrial structure meet the general law above. Developing marketingreform, with Hainan's natural endowment structure different from other provinces,similar coefficient of Hainan industrial structure is narrowing stage by stage, and thedeveiopment of the marketing process has divergence effect. At present thedivergence effect of the market allocation is essentially the performance of Hainanindustrial structure rationalization.
Through performing economic function and selecting the adequate andappropriate industrial policies,the local government may promote industrial structureoptimization. The local government behaviors face with the constraint conditions offiscal decentralization system, index evaluation mechanism and official selectionsystem et al,then given four hypotheses about the self-interest, limited rationality,action consistency and independence et al., the objective of the local government is tomaximize the effectiveness,as the microcosmic main body. Available major industrialpolicy tools of Hainan local government include: investment and financing policy,taxation policy, land policy and the policy of opening to the outside world et al..Because they have its own advantages and disadvantages in the adjustment ofindustrial structure, we must strengthen effective cooperation between industrial policies with the promotion of the industrial structure adjustment. The cause ofgovernment intervention in the economy is "market failure", and the main reasons ofmarket failure are external economy. Taxing at the generators of negative externaleconomic, and giving corresponding allowance at the generators of positive externaleconomic, the government can eliminate effectively the difference of the private costand social cost, and the deviation of the private interest and social interest, ensure thenormal function of reasonable allocation resources of the market mechanism, andpromote the industrial structure optimization. Scale economy and industrial relationsprovide the basis for Hainan local government interventing effectively tourism. In thispaper, the empirical research shows that the Hainan government intervention hasstrong effect of industrial structure adjustment.
The development of higher education not only can promote the development ofeducation industry, and optimize directly the industrial structure, but also cancultivate advanced elements, and relax the constraints of Hainan industry structureoptimization through scientific and technological innovation.From supply side,scientific and technological innovation has industrial structure optimization effect,mainly through improving laborer quality, improving the production corporealtechnology basis, enlarging labor object scope, and improving the level ofmanagement and other ways to achieve; from demand side, scientific andtechnological innovation has industrial structure optimization effect, mainly throughinfluencing investment, consumption and export demand, with the help of demandstructure change to achieve. In order to research empirically the interactiverelationship between the informatization and industrialization,respectively since thereform and opening up and since building a province and establishing the special zonein Hainan, this paper establishes two VAR model, and conduct regressionestimation,using the relevant data in1978-2010years and in1987-2010years. Fromthe estimation result, since the reform and opening up, especially since building aprovince and establishing the special zone, Hainan informatization has a strongpositive effect on industrialization, and at the same time the industrialization also hasa strong positive effect on informatization.
Hainan open economy has experienced a fall after rising big cycle since thereform and opening up. Through regression analysis, the import trade and theabsorption of FDI in Hainan has a strong positive technology spillover effect, and theexport trade in Hainan has a strong negative spillover effect. Export and import tradehave a negative effect or an unremakable positive effect on Hainan industrial structure optimization, while FDI and the stock of human capital have a positive effect onHainan industrial structure optimization. In Hainan three industrial intern, tropicalmodern agriculture, new typye industry and modern service industry is very weak inthe status of the national economy. In the development of the international tourismisland, Hainan must fuse the market allocation, the effective government interventionand the innovation of science and technology, implement multi path integration mode,and promote Hainan industrial structure optimization.
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